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Which candidates might miss out thanks to Tasmania's Hare-Clark vote counting system
Which candidates might miss out thanks to Tasmania's Hare-Clark vote counting system

ABC News

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • ABC News

Which candidates might miss out thanks to Tasmania's Hare-Clark vote counting system

The long wait for a final result continues after Tasmania's state election 10 days ago. We know the Liberals will be the biggest group in the new Tasmanian Parliament, with at least 14 seats out of 35. Labor has 10 seats and the Greens five, while there are four independents. With vote counting set to continue using Tasmania's Hare-Clark system, here are some of the big questions that will be answered by the end of the week. Depending on how the counts go, we may be waiting until Saturday for an answer. Tasmanian Electoral Commissioner Andrew Hawkey says the distribution of preferences will start on Tuesday afternoon, once the deadline for postal votes has passed and the last batch is received. Before that, there's some final checking and all the votes from each booth are combined. They'll also start preparing for the first round of distributions by sorting the second preferences of those candidates who polled more than a quota. "Where you have something like Mr Rockliff, who has so many first preferences, all his ballot papers are thrown for count two," Mr Hawkey said. "They will sort of do the movement of those ballot papers, looking at every count two on every one of these ballot papers, and that'll be physically moved on Monday." For local government elections, the Tasmanian Eelectoral Commission (TEC) uses a data entry system that computerises the distribution of preferences. It is hoped that system will be in place by the next state election. "What that will mean is we should be able to get a result pretty much on that Tuesday afternoon," Mr Hawkey said. With around 50 per cent of the vote, the Liberals are set to end the count with four seats in Braddon, with Jacqui Lambie Network turned independent MP Miriam Beswick, who ran as a Nationals candidate this time around, losing her seat. Jeremy Rockliff has topped the poll statewide, with two and a half quotas. That will be enough to carry three of his party mates across the line with him, including former federal Liberal MP Gavin Pearce. Incumbent MPs Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch are the two next best placed Liberals. ABC chief election analyst Casey Briggs said while Mr Rockliff's preferences were expected to flow strongly to the incumbents, Giovanna Simpson wasn't totally out of the count. "The only reason we have a small amount of caution is because his surplus is so big and because Giovanna Simpson performed quite well on preferences in last year's election," he said. According to Mr Briggs, the electorate of Bass is "one of the most complicated" in recent memory. The Liberals will hold their three seats, Labor is set to hold its two, and the Greens one. "That's six of the seats, but then the surpluses for every other party are sitting somewhere between 0.2 and 0.4 of a quota." Whichever candidates can accumulate preferences and outlast their competitors will take a Steven Bradbury-esque win. It means that while Labor pulled only 2.2 quotas — and Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons are still in a contest to become the party's second MP in the electorate — it may still be able to win a third. Compare that to Franklin, where the Liberals won around 2.7 quotas, but are destined for two seats. Mr Briggs also said Bridget Archer's strong vote may complicate things for the Liberals. The former federal MP has more than 1.5 quotas, but due to her high profile there's a chance some of her vote may "leak" to other candidates, rather than stay within the Liberal ticket. "It's possible there are people in Bass that have voted for Bridget Archer, but not other members of the Liberal Party ticket," Mr Briggs explained. "That would actually have the effect of bringing down the Liberals vote in that seat, and it could make it harder for them to stay ahead of other candidates," he said. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SSF) remains the firm favourite chance of picking up its first ever seat in Lyons, according to Mr Briggs. But with the party's Carlo di Falco sitting on just over half a quota, Mr Briggs said it was not locked in. "His primary vote has fallen a little bit, as we expected, as more postal votes have been counted and out of division, pre-polls and other non-election day votes have been counted," he said. If the SFF fails, the Liberals' Stephanie Cameron may have a chance — she's around 0.2 of a quota behind. Labor's vote tanked in Franklin, with a near 5 per cent swing against the party and leader Dean Winter failing to secure a quota. The ABC has called two seats for them though, with first-term MP Meg Brown best placed to secure the second seat. But she will have to hold off high-profile candidate and Unions Tasmania boss Jess Munday, who she leads by around 1,000 votes. With the Liberals holding their two Clark seats and Marcus Vermey topping the poll for the party, it means he's set to topple either Madeleine Ogilvie or Simon Behrakis. At this stage, Mr Behrakis remains ahead of Ms Ogilvie by around 1,000 votes. "It's not a done deal just yet," Mr Briggs said. "We will need to see some of those lower-placing Liberal candidates excluded to be sure of that." This was Marcus Vermey's third campaign in the last 16 months, having unsuccessfully contested last year's state election and May's Legislative Council election — the long runway helping him get over the hump. Mr Briggs said the Hare-Clark voting system meant incumbents could be vulnerable to a popular outsider, with voters able to avoid certain candidates but still stick with their favoured party. "The Tasmanian electoral system requires candidates to build their own profiles, have good standing with the electorate, and be out there connecting with voters and actively campaigning," he said. "You can't coast along on your party's name because that makes you vulnerable to being defeated by a more popular member of your own party."

Tasmanian election inspires a feeling of deja vu
Tasmanian election inspires a feeling of deja vu

ABC News

time21-07-2025

  • Politics
  • ABC News

Tasmanian election inspires a feeling of deja vu

ELLEN COULTER, REPORTER: It's deja vu for Tasmanians after another election. VOX POP: We were saying it was Groundhog Day VOX POP 2: It was Groundhog Day. We thought it was probably going to happen. VOX POP: A silly election that we didn't need to have. VOX POP 2: An election we didn't need to have. VOX POP: It feels pretty much exactly the same as it did last week, and like we'll probably get a pretty similar, yeah, it's going to look like exactly the same. Nothing really changed, which is disappointing but yeah. ELLEN COULTER: Little more than a year after they delivered a minority Liberal government, Tasmanians were sent to polls again, when the Premier lost the confidence of the House. And as votes were counted on Saturday, Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff once again claimed victory. JEREMY ROCKLIFF, TASMANIAN PREMIER: I intend to visit the Governor and ask her to recommission my government so we can get on with the job for Tasmania. ELLEN COULTER: But it's not that clear cut. The Liberals have secured at least 14 seats. Labor has nine and will probably get to 10. The Greens are on five and independents four. Three seats are still in doubt. That means no one has the 18 seats needed for a majority. Those numbers might sound familiar. That's because at the party level at least they're a carbon copy of the make-up of Tasmanian Parliament as we headed into this election. It turns out when you only have 16 months between polls, voters deliver a fairly similar result. The Premier is waiting until counting finishes to go to the Governor. In the meantime, he needs to shore up support from crossbenchers. JEREMY ROCKLIFF: Those conversations have been good, at a very high level of course. I've congratulated all on their personal support within the community and look forward to further conversations over the course of the next week or two. ELLEN COULTER: Labor kickstarted the chain of events that led to this election with its no confidence motion in the Premier. CASEY BRIGGS, ABC CHIEF ELECTIONS ANALYST: It's a gamble that doesn't seem to have paid off. Tasmanian Labor's gone backwards on primary votes, they've seen a swing against them of about 3 per cent. It hasn't meant that they've lost seats, but it has delivered them their worst primary vote share ever in state Labor history. ELLEN COULTER: Despite that result, Labor leader Dean Winter has been making his own calls in the hope he might be able to govern. DEAN WINTER, TAS. LABOR LEADER (Sunday): We've opened a line of discussion with the crossbench, and we'll make sure that they understand where we stand but we're not going to be horse-trading on policy. ASSOC. PROF. KATE CROWLEY, UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA: If they can cobble together a power sharing arrangement that reaches a majority on the floor of the House, then what they're doing is creating an arrangement that represents the majority of the voters' intentions and so that is entirely legitimate. But I think that the public would be shocked because the trend of the vote is away from Labor. ELLEN COULTER: Tasmanians have delivered a progressive crossbench, including two independents who previously voted no confidence in the Premier. So far, no independents have said who they'd give support to in this parliament. One-time Labor leader, now independent David O'Byrne gave Mr Rockliff support in the previous term. DAVID O'BYRNE, INDEPENDENT: Let's see the dust settle but I'm more than open to working with both sides of the House to ensure that we actually get parliament working and we get out of people's lives and stop having constant elections. ELLEN COULTER: At the federal poll in May, independent Peter George gave minister Julie Collins a run for her money. With an army of grassroots and high-profile supporters, he easily got the votes to be elected to state parliament on the weekend. PETER GEORGE, INDEPENDENT: Whoever can come up with the best proposition that will be of real benefit to Tasmania, I will work with them. But I don't plan to sign an agreement, because frankly with those old parties, the agreement is only worth what it is until they tear it up and the truth is both of those parties will tear up any agreement as soon as it's no longer convenient to them. ELLEN COULTER: The Liberals don't want to work with the Greens and Dean Winter has promised not to govern with the Greens. DEAN WINTER: I've been clear with Tasmanians before this election that I won't be doing any deals with the Greens and I'm not going to change that. ELLEN COULTER: Kate Crowley is an expert on minority government and green politics. She says Dean Winter will need more than the support of the independents. KATE CROWLEY: Everyone knows that he needs to talk to the Greens. He can't get anywhere without talking to the Greens. ELLEN COULTER: A potential sticking point in negotiations could be plans for a contentious new AFL stadium. While both major parties support the stadium, the Greens don't and nor do three of the four independents elected so far. PETER GEORGE: The truth of the matter is, the stadium is not necessary, it's unwanted, quite clearly because I've been elected and that's one of the policies that I've been elected on, or positions. ELLEN COULTER: While the weekend's result might seem odd to the rest of the country, this sort of election purgatory isn't unusual for Tasmania's electoral system. CASEY BRIGGS: The Hare-Clark system delivers seats to parties you know roughly in proportion to the share of the vote that they get. Now it used to be the case that the major parties would get vote share numbers in the 40s, but that's been declining now for some time. We're seeing the same trend in Tasmania that we're seeing nationally. But under the Hare-Clark system, it sort of exaggerates the effect that you get. It sees minority governments become even more likely. ELLEN COULTER: Something the major parties might need to get used to. KATE CROWLEY: I think they really need to start thinking more about schooling themselves into how to build coalitions. And honestly, there's so much experience around the country now in doing coalitions. So there's a lot of lesson learning that can go on there. You can form stable coalitions with partners that you don't see eye to eye on.

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