Latest news with #TheConferenceBoard
Fibre2Fashion
6 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Expectations improve, US consumer confidence hits 97.2 in July: TCB
US consumer confidence showed a modest improvement in July, with The Conference Board's (TCB) Consumer Confidence Index rising to 97.2 from a revised 95.2 in June. While the overall index ticked up by 2 points, the underlying picture remained mixed. US consumer confidence rose to 97.2 in July from 95.2 in June, driven by improved expectations despite mixed views. The Present Situation Index dipped, but the Expectations Index climbed to 74.4. Optimism grew among over-35s and Republicans. Fewer consumers expect rate hikes, though credit card rates may rise. Recession fears eased slightly but remain elevated. The Present Situation Index, reflecting consumers' views on current business and labour market conditions, fell slightly to 131.5, whereas the Expectations Index—which measures short-term outlook for income, business, and employment—rose by 4.5 points to 74.4. Despite the gain, expectations remained below the recession-warning threshold of 80 for the sixth consecutive month. The increase in confidence was primarily driven by consumers aged over 35 and spanned most income groups, except the lowest bracket of households earning under $15,000 annually. Confidence rose among Republican respondents, while it held steady among Democrats and Independents. At the same time, fewer consumers now expect interest rates to rise, and more anticipate they may fall, though credit card rates are widely expected to climb further. Consumers' financial sentiment remained relatively steady but softened slightly in July. Views on current and future family finances deteriorated modestly, and while recession expectations declined slightly, they remained elevated compared to 2024 levels. Purchasing plans showed caution, TCB said in a release. Consumers' views on the current economy offered a mixed picture. Assessments of current business conditions were slightly more favourable, with 20.1 per cent describing conditions as 'good,' down marginally from 20.5 per cent in June, and 14.3 per cent calling them 'bad,' down from 15 per cent. Labour market sentiment cooled: 30.2 per cent said jobs were 'plentiful,' up from 29.4 per cent, but 18.9 per cent said jobs were 'hard to get,' up from 17.2 per cent. Expectations for the next six months showed slight optimism. 18.4 per cent of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 17.1 per cent, while the share expecting worsening conditions fell to 23.3 per cent from 24.8 per cent. Similarly, 17.5 per cent expected more jobs to become available, up from 15.9 per cent, while 25.4 per cent anticipated fewer jobs—slightly down from 25.7 per cent. Income expectations were also more upbeat, with 18.2 per cent expecting a rise, up from 17.6 per cent, and 12 per cent anticipating a decline, down from 12.9 per cent. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)
The Hill
31-07-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Trump trade wins leave voters, businesses wanting more
The Trump administration has struck trade pacts in recent months that seem to benefit the U.S. over its trading partners, giving President Trump ample opportunity to tout his dealmaking skills. But Americans don't appear to be giving him a pat on the back as the U.S. starts to feel the impact of tariffs already imposed. Recent polls show the president's job approval rating slipping to the lowest point of his second term and his tariff policy only satisfying about 36 percent of those surveyed, according to an Emerson College poll. While consumer confidence is improving, there is anxiety among the public that Trump's tariffs on goods will ultimately be passed down from company to consumer. Consumer confidence increased from 95.2 to 97.2 in June, according to The Conference Board survey, and the expectations for consumer confidence in the future rated from 69.9 to 74.4. But the business group said consumers are still nervous about the end result of Trump's trade battles, The Wall Street Journal reported. Inflation also ticked up to a 2.6-percent annual increase in June from 2.3 percent in the Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index, exceeding expectations of economists for a 2.5 percent increase. Businesses are bracing for what the threats mean and what the deals entail, while many of them have been struck within just a week of the tariffs being put into place to avoid Trump setting higher rates himself. 'They're not genuine trade agreements of the traditional sort, which are a voluntary in nature— countries negotiate, agree, sign, and then ratify,' said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum. He added, 'These are handshake agreements at the point of a gun, and I don't see that as a particularly durable way to think about trade policy. So, we'll see how that plays out.' Meanwhile, an Aug. 1 deadline for countries to reach tariff deals with the U.S. or risk the Trump administration imposing 'reciprocal tariffs' looms. Trump struck trade deals with the European Union and Japan to impose a 15 percent tariff on both nations. He also announced a deal with South Korea on Wednesday, imposing a 15 percent on goods from there as well. For countries that don't have deals, Trump said they would face a tariff between 15 and 20 percent. He has also threatened a 35 percent tariff on Canada, one of many major U.S. trading partners that haven't struck a deal yet. The White House has eagerly touted Trump's dealmaking spree while laughing off the dire predictions from economists, who are bracing for a much bigger hit from new import taxes. 'What we are watching is President Trump rebuilding the greatest economy in the history of the world and simultaneously providing the so-called economic experts wrong at every turn,' said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Those wins are coming as Trump's approval rating dropped to 40 percent in the latest Economist/YouGov poll and just over 44 percent in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) average. Meanwhile, Trump received a 34 percent approval rating on his handling of inflation and prices in The Economist/YouGov poll released this week. The majority of Americans also said Trump's tariffs will increase prices, with only seven percent of those surveyed saying they will have no effect. 'The average voter doesn't follow trade deals, but only what things cost and what they're paid, and these big deal announcements — though promising — have not yet impacted anyone's day-to-day,' said Bruce Mehlman, who served as assistant secretary of Commerce for technology policy under former President George W. Bush. Trump has stood firm on the Aug. 1 deadline, after punting it several times since he first rolled out the 'reciprocal tariffs' April 2. The tariff plan was paused a week later, following intense pressure from Wall Street and Republicans to ease the chaotic markets at the time. 'The White House is trying to declare victory on the process. But the real question is whether the policy is a good idea or not,' said Holtz-Eakin. 'They will be judged on that outcome and what it does to the economy.' The impact on prices will be seen before the end of the year, once the tariffs hit companies and if companies pass them along to consumers, he said. 'The two big moments are going to be school and Christmas shopping. Those are the ultimate litmus tests. And I think over the next two quarters, third and fourth quarter, we'll see the shape of the impacts— in the next six months,' said Holtz-Eakin. Many of Trump's trade deals, including with the Philippines and Indonesia, include that U.S. exports will not face tariffs, which gave Trump the sweeter side of the deal. Leavitt on Thursday cited that the European Union trade deal includes the same open market for American goods. 'The deal guarantees that American businesses will have unprecedented levels of access to the European Union markets to export our American made goods,' Leavitt said. Monica Gorman, former special assistant to President Biden for manufacturing and industrial policy, said that opening markets to American goods is encouraging, but now depends on how the private sector responds. 'We'll just need to see if business investment in the U.S. follows, and we see expansion in manufacturing and expansion in other areas that's going to drive exports. Certainly that could be an engine of economic growth, but I think to date, we're actually seeing businesses pulling back because of the uncertainty,' Gorman said. The uncertainty is exacerbated by the last-minute changes from the administration— Trump announced on Thursday that Mexico's tariffs would be punted by 90-days— and on the lack of details about each trade deal. Trump also declared on Wednesday, after months of administration officials claiming a deal was imminent, that he would impose a 25 percent tariff on India and slap on a penalty for buying military equipment and energy from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.
BusinessToday
30-07-2025
- Business
- BusinessToday
MBSB Remains Pessimistic On US Despite Latest Job Data
Employers posted 7.4 million job vacancies last month, a sign that the American job market continues to cool. The Labour Department reported Tuesday that job openings in June were down from 7.7 million in May. Job openings in the US declined by -274k to 7.4m in Jun-25 (May-25: 7.7M), lower than market expectations of 7.6m, pointing to a cooling labour demand. This marks the first decline in job openings since Mar-25, primarily accommodation and food services (-308K), health care and social assistance (-244K), and finance and insurance (-142K). Conversely, job openings increased in retail trade (+190K), information (+67K), and state and local government education (+61K). Regionally, job openings fell in the Northeast (-106K), the Midwest (-149K), and the South (-130K). During the same month, hirings rose marginally by +100K to 5.2m (May-25: 5.1m), signalling those businesses remained hesitant to expand their workforce. Meanwhile, layoffs were unchanged from the previous month at 5.1m, providing continued support to the labour market. The quits rate remained relatively unchanged from the previous month at 3.1m. This steady rate suggests that job-hopping is less prevalent, and workers are less confident in their ability to find better job opportunities. In a separate release, according to The Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence in the US improved by 2.0 points to 97.2 points in Jul-25 (Jun-25: 95.2 points), above market consensus of 95.8 points, signalling stabilisation of consumer confidence since May-25. Similarly, labour market data indicated signs of stability, with a decline in layoffs and number of quits despite a reduction in job openings. Looking ahead, MBSB Research noted that the implementation of tariffs in Aug-25 are expected to push up prices, dampen growth, and trigger job cuts, potentially affecting the labour market in the coming months. Immigration crackdown could worsen labour shortages in sectors like hospitality and construction, while proposed tax and spending plans create uncertainties, that are stalling hiring decisions. Related
Epoch Times
29-07-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Consumer Confidence Improves as Americans Grow More Optimistic About Future
U.S. consumer confidence edged higher in July as Americans grew slightly more upbeat about the economy's outlook, though worries over job availability and tariffs lingered, according to a July 29 report from the business think tank The Conference Board. The group's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 from a revised 95.2 in June, reversing last month's slide as optimism about future economic conditions improved markedly. The gain was driven by improved expectations for future business conditions, incomes, and job prospects, though views on current conditions slipped slightly.
Yahoo
29-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysis-The most precarious job in America's boardrooms: CEO
By Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Isla Binnie NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. companies are removing their CEOs at the fastest clip in two decades, data shows, as increased scrutiny from shareholders and boards result in reduced tolerance for sub-par returns or wayward conduct. At least 41 CEOs have exited S&P 500 companies so far this year, compared with 49 for all of 2024 – making the fastest pace on an annualized basis since 2005, according to data from nonprofit executive research group The Conference Board and data analytics company ESGAUGE. In the latest example, consumer goods company Procter & Gamble, the maker of Tide laundry detergent and Bounty paper towels, said on Monday CEO Jon Moeller will be replaced next year by longtime executive Shailesh Jejurikar. Moeller, who has been CEO since 2021, will become executive chairman, a powerful role on the board that allows the former chief to retain a strong voice in company affairs. Before that in the last three weeks alone Tylenol-maker Kenvue replaced its CEO and health care products distributor Henry Schein said its CEO will leave at year's end. In interviews, more than a dozen executive recruiters, investors, bankers, lawyers and industry advisers attributed the high turnover this year to a range of reasons, some building up from economic and social changes since the Covid-19 pandemic. While high inflation, geopolitical instability and the Trump administration's trade war has complicated the job of CEOs, diversity gains made boards more independent and demanding of the person in the top job, these people said. At the same time, in a stock market setting new records but driven mostly by large tech names, underperformance had given activist investors, who push for corporate changes from selling a division to buying back more stock, greater sway, leading to management changes. "Trying to fire the CEO has become a referendum on what's perceived to be a failed company strategy," said Peter da Silva Vint, managing partner at consulting firm Jasper Street, which works with companies facing pressure from activist investors. "And investors have become more comfortable with it as a mechanism to send a message." CEOs at companies that are lagging their peers are most at risk for demands from activists, with almost half – 42% – of S&P 500 companies that changed leaders last year foundering in the bottom 25th percentile for total shareholder returns, according to a November study led by The Conference Board. Take the case of Kenvue, where the board said it was replacing CEO Thibaut Mongon "to unlock shareholder value and reach its full potential" after the stock had lost 16.5% since its spin out from Johnson & Johnson two years ago. In contrast the S&P 500 has climbed 41% since August 2023, when Kenvue became a fully independent company. Kenvue took action after three U.S. hedge funds -- Starboard Value, Tom's Capital and Third Point – agitated for change at the company, and Starboard CEO Jeffrey Smith got a board seat in March to settle that hedge fund's proxy fight. The battle at Kenvue continues, however. The other two funds continue to agitate for more changes, including divesting assets and possibly selling the entire company, according to people familiar with the matter. With a new CEO on board investors, are confident a sale is sure to follow, the sources said. Kenvue declined to comment, Mongon could not be reached for comment and the hedge funds did not respond to requests for comment. "Activist investors are feeling more empowered, and if they have bought into a company's five-year plan then they want someone to exercise it," said Georgetown University professor Jason Schloetzer, an expert in corporate governance. "And if the guy at the top can't do it, they'll find the next one." Beyond shareholder activism and performance, changes in the makeup of boards over the past decade when there had been a new focus on adding diversity was also playing a role in the shakeup at the top, corporate governance experts said. Such boards were acting with greater independence, putting CEOs on tighter leash, these people said. "Newer members have more objectivity relative to prior generations," said Jason Baumgarten, head of global board and CEO practice at executive recruitment firm Spencer Stuart. Another factor in the high CEO turnover: less tolerance of unethical behavior, especially after the #MeToo movement. Questions over personal conduct led to the departure of at least two of the 40 CEOs at S&P 500 -- at Kroger and Kohl's. Representatives for the companies did not respond to requests for comment and the former executives could not be reached for comment. But the trend goes beyond publicly traded companies as well. Earlier this month, Andy Byron, the married CEO at privately held technology company Astronomer, left his position after a video of him embracing the firm's human resources chief Kristin Cabot, who is not his wife, at a Coldplay concert went viral. Astronomer did not respond to a request for comment and Byron could not be reached. Reputational risk and corporate culture have become central to a company's long-term value, Jasper Street's da Silva Vint said. "Today's boards are far more willing to act decisively, removing executives, not only to enforce policy, but to protect shareholder, employee and public trust," he said.
