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The Diplomat
9 hours ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
Is the US About to Establish a Military Base in Thailand?
In my April column for The Diplomat, I argued that Thailand has downplayed the defense dimension in its tariff negotiations with the United States, so as to dodge tough questions of strategic alignment. And so, 'the moment defense becomes overt in talks with Trump could be the moment Thailand finds itself dangerously cornered.' That gloomy reality is materializing, with Thailand's tariff rate remaining unaltered at 36 percent despite the Pheu Thai government having spent 97 million baht ($2.99 million) on lobbyists, and the state-owned energy conglomerate PTT Group having inked a 20-year agreement with Glenfarne Alaska LNG to import 2 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas annually. Murmurs about security-related concessions are growing louder. But, contrary to my anticipation of arms deals, the buzz centers around the establishment of a U.S. base within the Phang Nga Naval Base on Thailand's southwestern coast. That the buzz refuses to fade regardless of repeated denials from Thai officials reflects two contradictory trends, which are sharpened by today's U.S.-China showdown. On the question of the U.S. basing rights in Thailand, American persistence competes with unyielding Thai resistance. Thailand's stance is not only shaped by its pursuit of strategic equilibrium, but also by its first-hand experience. The heyday of the Thailand-U.S. alliance during the Vietnam War saw a massive American military stationing across seven key bases on Thai soil. The number of U.S. troops in Thailand was 46,300 in 1969, and 27,000 in 1975, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. While the gradual troop reduction was America's doing, the catalyst for the Thai government to formally request that U.S. combat forces pack up and leave was domestic discontent. The problems around hosting the garrisoned presence of another nation are succinctly captured by the late Thanat Khoman, Thailand's esteemed diplomat and one of ASEAN's founding fathers. These include the erosion of sovereignty, direct or indirect interference in domestic politics, and the disruption of social stability, from psychological unease to the economic shocks triggered by sudden inflows and pullouts of foreign funds. Because these problems are structural in nature, even the closest, friendliest ally with shared objectives can still leave a negative footprint. One might assert further that the closer the alliance, the easier it is to overlook the problems for the host country, particularly the psychological imprint. A case in point is the U.S. deployment of the chemical herbicide Agent Orange to destroy jungle cover and crops in Vietnam. Its long-lasting health implications for the Vietnamese population and American veterans are well-recognized, rightfully so. Presumed exposure among U.S. veterans stationed in Thailand are also acknowledged. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs specifically acknowledges compensation consideration for veterans serving 'on or near the perimeters' of U.S. bases in Thailand between 1961 and 1975, which suggests that Thai civilians living around those bases should not be ignored in the broader discourse. Yet, to date, there appears to be no real policy or research focused on the possible exposure of Thai civilians. Since the relatively smooth U.S. withdrawal in 1976, Thailand has not hosted a permanent American or other foreign military presence. All U.S. military activities in Thailand – while still substantial, with greater depth and wider scope than Thailand's military engagement with other nations – are now joint or rotational on a case-by-case basis. Uncle Sam has not been discouraged, though, and the prospect of American basing at Thailand's U-Tapao air base is a recurring discussion. An offshore military base in Thai waters is another area of U.S. interest. The request to establish one reportedly dates back to 1997. The reason for the U.S. interest is simple: Thailand's ideal geographical location. A gateway to mainland Southeast Asia, Thailand is a springboard for U.S. power projection into continental Asia, which is currently lacking. Given that U.S. ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles have a reported range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, shots fired at maximum capacity from central or eastern Thailand could threaten all of China's southern provinces (Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) and the western Xinjiang Region. Furthermore, America's maritime dominance would be underpinned by Thailand's close proximity to both the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The rumored U.S. push to secure an institutionalized foothold on Thailand's southwestern coast is most straightforwardly understood in the context of the intensifying competition in the Indian Ocean. The regional littoral power India, and distant powers China and Russia, are all ramping up their naval presence – the latter two in apparent accordance with the classic Mahanian thinking on sea power. Although America has a forward naval presence on Diego Garcia, it is quite a distance away. American access to Singapore, meanwhile, is limited and takes place on a rotational basis under an agreement that runs through 2035. Through Thailand's Phang Nga Naval Base, then, the U.S. would have a firmer hold near the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. If ever greenlit, a formalized U.S. access to Phang Nga would likely follow the Singapore model. When it comes to Phang Nga, however, Thailand's apprehension goes beyond geopolitical balance and deep-seated sensitivities. Phang Nga is effectively a sister province of Phuket, bound by geographical proximity and a shared economic trajectory, from tin mining in the past to today's tourism. Phang Nga's internationally known resort zone, Khao Lak, is just a 30-minute drive away from the naval base in question. It must also be highlighted that Phang Nga, Phuket, and another neighboring province, Krabi, are undergoing a wellness-focused transformation under the national development agenda. An established foreign military presence in the area is at odds with that development priority. To cite Thanat Khoman once again, 'the criteria for allowing foreign forces to remain should rest on the national interests of the host country, or at least on the concord between the former and those of the foreign party.' The answer to the first criterion is clear, but the second one is murky considering that Thailand remains a formal U.S. ally. Perhaps unnoticed by many, there exists no mutual defense treaty between Bangkok and Washington. Instead, the Thai-U.S. defense alliance draws symbolic significance from the 1954 Manila Pact, which created the now-defunct Southeast Asia Treaty Organization. The alliance is reinforced by subsequent bilateral documents: the 1962 Thanat-Rusk communiqué, the Joint Vision Statements of 2012 and 2020, and the 2022 United States-Thailand Communiqué on Strategic Alliance and Partnership. None of these has binding provisions for basing rights. Ultimately, there is neither legal compulsion nor interest – and thus no political will – on Thailand's part to host an institutionalized U.S. military presence. More viable and desirable ways to boost the Thailand-U.S. alliance would be to expand military education and training, to co-develop or support indigenous defense capabilities, and to focus on strengthening a number of existing joint exercises, whether in bilateral or multilateral formats. The fact that there is no good outcome for Thailand on the trade front makes it even more unlikely that the ruling government would concede basing rights as part of its negotiations with the U.S. While a 36 percent tariff stands to devastate Thai exports and growth rate, Thailand offering zero tariffs on U.S. imports risks opening the floodgates to overwhelming inflows of American goods. This, combined with the already high influx of Chinese goods, will kill Thai-made products. The trickier business is determining the position of the Trump administration, which, on the one hand, has been relentless in bending others to its will. On the other hand, however, setting up a new base in Thailand seems to go against the administration's cost-saving agenda, especially as Trump himself has shown little interest in Southeast Asia. All things considered, an American base in Thailand remains a distant prospect.
The Diplomat
12 hours ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
Trump Announces Trade Deal With Philippines, Small Reduction in Tariff Rate
The U.S. leader said that Washington would apply a 19 percent tariff on Philippine imports, while Manila has agreed to remove all of its tariffs on American goods. U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a new 19 percent tariff rate for imports from the Philippines, after a meeting with visiting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House. Trump made the announcement in a post on his Truth Social media platform after the meeting with Marcos, calling the Philippine leader a 'very good and tough negotiator.' 'It was a beautiful visit, and we concluded our Trade Deal, whereby The Philippines is going OPEN MARKET with the United States, and ZERO Tariffs. The Philippines will pay a 19% Tariff,' Trump wrote. 'In addition, we will work together Militarily.' Marcos arrived in Washington on Sunday for a three-day trip during which he also met with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as with U.S. business leaders investing in the Philippines. Speaking to reporters with Marcos, the U.S. leader announced that the two countries were 'very close to finishing a trade deal – a big trade deal, actually.' Trump's announcement comes after he claimed to have finalized similar deals with Vietnam, which negotiated a rate of 20 percent, and Indonesia, whose tariff is now set at 19 percent. (The White House yesterday released more details on the Indonesia agreement, although elements of the agreement with Vietnam have reportedly yet to be finalized.) According to an undated draft of the Philippines-U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade obtained by The Diplomat, the Philippines has agreed to remove nearly all of its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. imports, including quotas and import licensing requirements, and to bolster intellectual property protections. 'These commitments,' the draft agreement states, 'are intended to enhance reciprocity between the Parties by reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers in the territory of the Philippines and increasing alignment between the United States and the Philippines on economic and national security matters.' The U.S. had a goods trade deficit of $4.9 billion with the Philippines last year, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. As with the two previous agreements with Indonesia and Vietnam, a higher tariff rate will apply to any goods that are deemed to have been transshipped to the U.S. via the Philippines from any third country (i.e. China). The draft agreement states that the 19 percent rate will not apply in the event that a certain percentage of a good 'originates from certain countries not party to this Agreement.' Neither the exact local content threshold nor the tariff on transshipped goods were finalized in the draft, although Trump announced that the rate for Vietnam has been set at 40 percent. (How transshipped goods are to be identified and verified, and by whom, is yet to be determined in any of these cases.) The draft agreement also contains a number of provisions relating to economics and national security. It states that the Philippines will cooperate with Washington 'to regulate the trade in national security sensitive technologies and goods through existing multilateral export control regimes, align with all unilateral export controls in force by the United States, and ensure that its companies do not backfill or undermine these controls.' The agreement also states that the Philippines 'shall adopt and effectively enforce provisions to combat transshipment and other practices to evade or circumvent duties' and that the U.S. 'shall work with the Philippines to streamline and enhance defense trade.' Most notably, the draft states that the U.S. has the right to terminate the agreement if the Philippines 'enters into a new bilateral free trade agreement or preferential economic agreement' with any 'country of concern.' In light of all of these concessions, and its status as a longstanding and 'ironclad' U.S. security ally, it is surprising that the Philippines was unable to secure a greater reduction in the tariff rate. The 19 percent tariff was marginally lower than the 20 percent threatened by Trump in a letter to Marcos earlier this month, but higher than the 17 percent announced in Trump's 'liberation day' tariff announcement in April. It is also notably worse than the 15 percent rate that Trump announced today with Japan, another U.S. ally. The response on Philippine social media has reportedly been unfavorable to Marcos, with many users calling the Philippine leader 'weak' and stating that the risks of the U.S.-Philippine alliance have not been properly counterbalanced by greater U.S. concessions. In a post on X, Renato Reyes Jr., a member of the left-wing Makabayan political coalition, described the agreement as 'a grossly lopsided 'deal' which is really more of an imposition rather than the outcome of any negotiations' and called on the Marcos administration to 'fully disclose' its terms. The national security analyst Justin Baquisal wrote on X that while it remains to be seen whether these political talking points hurt Marcos' political prospects, 'the lack of better treatment for US allies vs non-aligners (esp compared to the original Liberation Day margins) is not doing anybody favors.' 'Most Reliable Ally' Marcos is the first Southeast Asian leader to visit the White House since the beginning of Trump's second term, a reflection of the warmth of the relationship between the two allies. Speaking to reporters at the start of the meeting in the Oval Office, Marcos described the U.S. as his country's 'strongest, closest, most reliable ally,' while Trump praised the Philippine leader, describing him as coming from a 'great family' with a 'great family legacy.' (Marcos' father, Ferdinand E. Marcos, ruled the Philippines through fear and force for more than two decades, including 14 years under Martial Law.) Aside from the trade issue, security and defense were also on the agenda during the Marcos-Trump meeting. Security cooperation between the two nations has increased markedly in recent years as a result of China's growing maritime power and ambition. During Marcos' three years in office, Beijing has increased the frequency and intensity of its incursions into Philippine-claimed waters, which it claims under its expansive 'nine-dash line' claim, resulting in a string of dangerous encounters between the two nations' coast guards. Under Marcos, the Philippines has opened more of its military facilities to a rotational U.S. presence under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, and increased military exercises and joint patrols. The visit did not witness the signing of any new defense cooperation initiatives, but in their meetings with Marcos, both Hegseth and Rubio reaffirmed that the U.S. will come to the Philippines' defense under the Mutual Defense Treaty if its forces, ships and aircraft come under an armed attack, including in the South China Sea – an assurance that has been consistently made since the first Trump administration. Marcos told Hegseth that the assurance of mutual defense 'continues to be the cornerstone' of the U.S.-Philippines relationship and thanked the U.S. for support 'that we need in the face of the threats that we, our country, is facing.' Speaking alongside Trump, Marcos said that 'we are essentially concerned with the defense of our territory and the exercise of our sovereign rights,' adding, 'Our strongest, closest, most reliable ally has always been the United States.' As the AFP news agency reported, Trump 'devoted much of the appearance to attacks on his Democratic predecessors Biden and Barack Obama.' In a possibly significant aside, Trump address relations with China, saying that he would 'probably' visit the country 'in the not-too-distant future.' While taking credit for 'untilt[ing]' the Philippines away from China (the shift in Manila's policy took place under the Biden administration), he said that the Philippines was independent in its dealings with Beijing. 'Do whatever you need to do,' Trump told Marcos, the Associated Press reported. 'But your dealing with China wouldn't bother me at all.'
The Irish Sun
13 hours ago
- Entertainment
- The Irish Sun
Stars of iconic 00s drama reuniting on different show – but there's a twist
STARS of an iconic noughties drama are reuniting on-screen nearly two decades later. Two former castmates from the beloved series are teaming up again, only this time they're swapping politics for power-coupling. 4 West Wing legends Alison Janney and Bradley Whitford are reuniting in another drama Credit: Alamy 4 They are swapping the corridors of power for domestic politics - playing a feuding husband and wife in The Diplomat Credit: Getty It's none other than The pair, who famously starred as press secretary C.J. Cregg and deputy chief of staff Josh Lyman in the iconic Only this time, they're ditching the corridors of power for domestic politics - playing a feuding husband and wife. Fans of The West Wing are already buzzing over the on-screen reunion - but seeing the duo lock horns in a rocky marriage is a far cry from their old dynamic in the beloved series. more on netflix TV royalty Alison Janney has spilled the beans on her long-awaited reunion with The West Wing co-star Bradley Whitford — and fans are in for a treat. The Hollywood duo are reuniting in season three of Netflix's hit political drama Speaking at the Las Culturistas Culture Awards in LA, Janney, 64, couldn't hide her excitement: 'I knew everyone who hadn't worked with him before was in for the treat of their lives. He's not only a brilliant actor - he's hilarious. He had the whole crew in stitches.' Showrunner Debora Cahn said the reunion has everyone on set buzzing: 'Seeing them work together again after all these years... it feels like we're doing something delicious.' Most read in Drama Season three of The Diplomat is expected to land on Netflix this autumn - and with two Emmy nods already, it's shaping up to be must-watch telly. Hit political drama The West Wing was a TV juggernaut, scooping 26 Emmys and even winning Best Drama four years in a row. The West Wing's Josh Lyman discusses nuclear war and a smallpox pandemic in season five The all-star cast, which also included The show was such a hit it raked in up to 17 million viewers per episode in its heyday and is still binged by fans nearly 20 years after it ended. Even Barack Obama was a superfan, with The West Wing praised for its feel-good, idealistic take on American politics. And with three Golden Globes and a Peabody Award under its belt, it's no wonder many still call it the greatest political drama of all time. The The Now fans are buzzing to see Allison and Bradley back in action. As it's the first time the TV favourites will have reunited on screen in years, viewers are eager to see if their chemistry is still sizzling. And with The Diplomat already a smash hit for Netflix, their reunion could send season three sky-high. 4 Fans are thrilled to see the TV favourites reunite on screen Credit: CLIFTON PRESCOD/NETFLIX 4 Hit political drama The West Wing was a TV juggernaut, scooping 26 Emmys and even winning Best Drama four years in a row Credit: Getty
Scottish Sun
13 hours ago
- Entertainment
- Scottish Sun
Stars of iconic 00s drama reuniting on different show – but there's a twist
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) STARS of an iconic noughties drama are reuniting on-screen nearly two decades later. Two former castmates from the beloved series are teaming up again, only this time they're swapping politics for power-coupling. Sign up for the Entertainment newsletter Sign up 4 West Wing legends Alison Janney and Bradley Whitford are reuniting in another drama Credit: Alamy 4 They are swapping the corridors of power for domestic politics - playing a feuding husband and wife in The Diplomat Credit: Getty It's none other than West Wing legends Alison Janney and Bradley Whitford - back on our screens, but with a very unexpected twist. The pair, who famously starred as press secretary C.J. Cregg and deputy chief of staff Josh Lyman in the iconic White House drama, are reuniting in Netflix's hit political series The Diplomat. Only this time, they're ditching the corridors of power for domestic politics - playing a feuding husband and wife. Fans of The West Wing are already buzzing over the on-screen reunion - but seeing the duo lock horns in a rocky marriage is a far cry from their old dynamic in the beloved series. TV royalty Alison Janney has spilled the beans on her long-awaited reunion with The West Wing co-star Bradley Whitford — and fans are in for a treat. The Hollywood duo are reuniting in season three of Netflix's hit political drama The Diplomat, with Whitford joining the cast as Todd Penn - husband to Janney's character, Vice President Grace Penn, who suddenly becomes President following a shock White House death. Speaking at the Las Culturistas Culture Awards in LA, Janney, 64, couldn't hide her excitement: 'I knew everyone who hadn't worked with him before was in for the treat of their lives. He's not only a brilliant actor - he's hilarious. He had the whole crew in stitches.' Showrunner Debora Cahn said the reunion has everyone on set buzzing: 'Seeing them work together again after all these years... it feels like we're doing something delicious.' Season three of The Diplomat is expected to land on Netflix this autumn - and with two Emmy nods already, it's shaping up to be must-watch telly. Hit political drama The West Wing was a TV juggernaut, scooping 26 Emmys and even winning Best Drama four years in a row. The West Wing's Josh Lyman discusses nuclear war and a smallpox pandemic in season five The all-star cast, which also included Martin Sheen, became household names - with fast-talking scenes and walk-and-talk moments now iconic. The show was such a hit it raked in up to 17 million viewers per episode in its heyday and is still binged by fans nearly 20 years after it ended. Even Barack Obama was a superfan, with The West Wing praised for its feel-good, idealistic take on American politics. And with three Golden Globes and a Peabody Award under its belt, it's no wonder many still call it the greatest political drama of all time. The best series on Netflix The best movies on Netflix New on Netflix: What to watch this week Now fans are buzzing to see Allison and Bradley back in action. As it's the first time the TV favourites will have reunited on screen in years, viewers are eager to see if their chemistry is still sizzling. And with The Diplomat already a smash hit for Netflix, their reunion could send season three sky-high. 4 Fans are thrilled to see the TV favourites reunite on screen Credit: CLIFTON PRESCOD/NETFLIX
Atlantic
a day ago
- Entertainment
- Atlantic
The Atlantic Festival Announces New Events Across New York City
July 22, 2025—Today The Atlantic is announcing more speakers, events, and the agenda for the 17th annual Atlantic Festival, taking place September 18–20 for the first time in New York City. This year's festival will be anchored at the Perelman Performing Arts Center along with venues around the city, including the Tenement Museum, the Town Hall, the Brooklyn Academy of Music, Hauser & Wirth, and McNally Jackson Seaport. Among the speakers announced today: actor Robert Downey Jr. and Pulitzer Prize–winning playwright Ayad Akhtar, in conversation with The Atlantic 's editor in chief Jeffrey Goldberg; actor Tom Hanks, who voices several historical figures in the new Ken Burns documentary series The American Revolution and who will join the premiere screening of the series at the Town Hall; comedian, writer, and director Richard Ayoade in a conversation moderated by talk-show host, comedian, and producer David Letterman; Executive Producer of The Apollo Kamilah Forbes; Professor of Marketing at NYU's Stern School of Business and a serial entrepreneur Scott Galloway; clinical psychologist and Founder and CEO of Good Inside Becky Kennedy; and TV personality, chef, author, and activist Andrew Zimmern. Previously announced Festival speakers include Mark Cuban, Jennifer Doudna, Arvind Krishna, Monica Lewinsky, Tekedra Mawakana, H.R. McMaster, and Clara Wu Tsai. The Atlantic Festival will also host an exclusive first look for Season 3 of Netflix's The Diplomat, which debuts this fall, followed by a conversation with the show's stars Keri Russell and Allison Janney and creator and executive producer Debora Cahn; a sneak peek screening of FX's The Lowdown, along with a talk with creator, executive producer, writer, and director Sterlin Harjo and executive producer and star Ethan Hawke; and a screening of The American Revolution, followed by a discussion with directors and producers Ken Burns and Sarah Botstein, along with actor Tom Hanks, who voices several historical figures, and historian Annette Gordon-Reed. New this year: The Atlantic Festival introduces Out and Abouts, intimate events around the city that are ticketed individually. Among the events announced today: Atlantic Reads book talks at McNally Jackson Seaport. Featuring Walter Mosley for his new novel Gray Dawn; Susan Orlean for her memoir Joyride; and a poetry conversation around The Singing Word: 168 Years of Atlantic Poetry, featuring the book's editor and Atlantic contributing editor Walt Hunter, with Singing Word contributor and MIT professor Joshua Bennett. Premiere of Dread Beat an' Blood at BAM (Brooklyn Academy of Music), featuring a live performance by legendary poet Linton Kwesi Johnson. The Big Story Live events, across downtown venues: 'What Does it Mean to Be an American?,' at the Tenement Museum, featuring staff writers Xochitl Gonzalez and Clint Smith, plus more speakers to be announced. 'The Future of the Arts in a Changing World,' at Hauser & Wirth, featuring Jeffrey Goldberg, Noah Hawley, and Kamilah Forbes, with more speakers to be announced. With more to be announced, including a live taping of the Radio Atlantic podcast. The festival's Single-Day Passes and Out and About tickets will go on sale this Wednesday, July 23, at 11 a.m. ET. Atlantic subscribers receive an exclusive 30 percent discount on festival passes and select Out & About programming. Festival sessions will be led by Goldberg and many of The Atlantic 's writers and editors, including Adrienne LaFrance, Tim Alberta, Ross Andersen, Anne Applebaum, Gal Beckerman, Elizabeth Bruenig, Sophie Gilbert, Jemele Hill, Walt Hunter, Shirley Li, Ashley Parker, and Clint Smith. The 2025 Atlantic Festival is underwritten by Microsoft at the Title Level; CenterWell, Eli Lilly and Company, and Scout Motors at the Presenting Level; and Aflac, Allstate, the Annie E. Casey Foundation, Destination DC, Diageo, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Hauser & Wirth, KPMG, and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation at the Supporting Level.
