Latest news with #TheOneBigBeautifulBill
Forbes
20 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
One Big Beautiful Bill – The Cost Of Climate Inaction
Storm cloud The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law in early July, directly rolls back several core provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, widely regarded as the most ambitious U.S. climate policy to date. According to Rhodium Group, the bill could cut the build-out of new clean power capacity by 53–59% between 2025 and 2035 and put over $500 billion in clean energy and transportation investments at risk. As the rollback of U.S. climate provisions accelerate, we may one day look back and ask: what was the true price of that decision? Not politically. Not ideologically. But economically. While the scale of the required investments might be daunting, the alternative – climate inaction – would unleash economic and societal damage on a far larger scale. Some of which we are already seeing now. The Price Tag Of Transition: High, But Necessary There's no denying that the global energy transition will require unprecedented levels of investment. According to the IEA, annual investment in renewables must double, and investment in energy efficiency and electrification needs to almost triple within five years, in order to meet global climate targets and support the clean energy tripling goal by 2030 agreed at COP28. Reaching net zero by 2050 will require annual global clean energy investments to rise to $4.5 trillion by the end of this decade. These numbers may seem overwhelming, however much of the spending replaces existing investment needs. Energy systems, transport networks, buildings, and industrial facilities all need ongoing reinvestment – whether it's for clean systems or fossil-based ones. In fact, in 2025 alone, $1.1 trillion is still expected to flow into oil, gas, and coal globally. So, the question isn't whether we invest, but where we direct those investments. TOPSHOT - Electric energy generating wind turbines are seen on a wind farm in the San Gorgonio Pass ... More area on Earth Day, April 22, 2016, near Palm Springs, California. - San Gorgonio Pass is one of the largest wind farm areas in the United States. (Photo by David McNew / AFP) (Photo credit should read DAVID MCNEW/AFP via Getty Images) Each $1 In Climate Action Can Save Up To $14 In Future Damages More importantly, the upfront cost of climate action must be weighed against the immense losses it can avert. According to joint modelling by the University of Cambridge and Boston Consulting Group, investments in mitigation and adaptation of 1-2% of cumulative global GDP from 2025 to 2100 could avoid economic damages worth between 11-27% of cumulative global GDP over the same period. In other words, each dollar spent on climate action could prevent up to 14 dollars in future damages. Failure to act could mean losing up to 25% of future global GDP – three times the total health spending worldwide this century. Even achieving a trajectory below 2°C would not eliminate damage altogether. However, this would limit losses to 2–4% of global GDP, which is much less than the 15–34% expected if temperatures were to rise by 3°C. That represents a permanent drag on global growth, magnified over time by compounding shocks and growing volatility. These losses are not limited to immediate effects from extreme weather events but also include the knock-on effects of climate disruption: lower labor productivity due to heat stress, water scarcity undermining food and energy systems, rising sea levels and droughts forcing mass migration, higher mortality and disease burdens straining healthcare systems, destabilized trade routes, and mounting costs for governments, businesses and customers alike. Iceberg - Hidden Danger And Global Warming Concept - 3d Illustration Climate Change Is Already Here – And Expensive For some, it may be tempting to see these economic impacts as hypothetical – problems for future generations to solve. But that framing is outdated: the losses are already real and increasing. Since the beginning of the century, climate-related disasters have caused over $3.6 trillion in damage globally. And the pace is accelerating. The economic cost of climate-related disasters has more than doubled since the early 2000s: from around $450 billion between 2000 and 2004 to over $1 trillion between 2020 and 2024. In 2023, global insured losses from climate-related events exceeded $100 billion for the fifth consecutive year. In Europe, recent years have brought a series of record-breaking climate events. In Spain for example, this summer has already brought extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 46°C. The prolonged heatwave triggered wildfires, power outages, hospital surges, and significant agricultural losses – with economic damages in Spain alone estimated at 1.4% of GDP. The United States has had to cope with similar impacts. Estimates for Hurricane Helene, which devastated southeastern U.S. states in September 2024, suggest that this single event could be responsible for over $100 billion in damages, making it one of the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history. These are not one-off events. They are early signals of what's to come. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and intensity of such disasters is projected to increase dramatically. You don't have to be an economist to grasp where this is heading – and what it will cost. 24 August 2023, Spain, Vinuela: Vegetation makes its way through the drought-ridden earth on the ... More shores of the Viñuela reservoir. The reservoir feeds the tropical crops of Axarquía, such as mangoes and avocados. It is in a phase of desiccation, with no water inflow, but consumption that has led the municipalities of Málaga to impose restrictions on the consumption of drinking water. Photo: Felipe Passolas/dpa (Photo by Felipe Passolas/picture alliance via Getty Images) Climate Action Could Create 85 Million New Jobs by 2030 Yet the argument for climate action extends well beyond cost avoidance. Investments in clean energy yield returns through lower utility costs, increased efficiency, and greater energy independence. The cost of key low-carbon technologies has fallen significantly over the past decade –especially solar power, wind, and batteries – and are expected to decline even further, while the margins that can be made with these technologies on energy markets are promising. Additionally, climate resilience investments tend to generate strong economic returns. According to the World Economic Forum, companies that assess their climate risks and act on them report paybacks of $2 to $19 for every dollar invested, depending on the sector. From flood defenses to water-saving systems, climate adaptation investments regularly deliver returns that outweigh their initial costs. The employment gains are equally compelling. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimated that 85 million new jobs could be created by 2030 in the clean energy transition. This exceeds the 12 million jobs expected to be lost in fossil fuel industries. In a nutshell, investing in cleantech has economic potential. LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 21: Workers install solar panels during the completion phase of a ... More 4-acre solar rooftop atop AltaSea's research and development facility at the Port of Los Angeles, in the San Pedro neighborhood, on April 21, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. The installation will supply enough energy to power AltaSea's 35-acre campus, the country's biggest 'blue economy' tech hub, which is focused on clean oceans, climate resiliency, and clean energy. (Photo by) Inaction Is Not An Option Unmitigated climate change threatens the very pillars of economic stability. It would reduce productivity, increase poverty, and push fragile systems past their limits. The investment case for climate action is clear: it is a fraction of the cost of inaction, it unlocks long-term savings, and it creates new jobs and industries. The missing ingredient is no longer data or models, but political will, courageous companies and financial mobilization at scale. We face a choice: invest now in a cleaner, resilient future – or spend endlessly on the fallout of inaction.
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Trump Gets Silver Lining in New Poll As More Voters Approve of Economy
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. President Donald Trump can take heart from a new Fox News poll that shows rating for the economy improving and feelings on the economic direction inching up even though a majority of voters disapprove of the job he is doing, dislike his new budget law, and doubt his dealings with Iran are making the U.S. safer. The poll was conducted from July 18-21 and is based on interviews with a sample of 1,000 randomly selected voters. Why It Matters The poll is a wide-ranging survey of voter feelings six months after Trump began his second term and comes as his administration is engulfed in a political crisis over the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The poll found that only 13 percent of respondents think the government has been open and transparent about the case. President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing the "Big Beautiful Bill Act" at the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2025. President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing the "Big Beautiful Bill Act" at the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2025. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / POOL / AFP/Getty Images What To Know Thirty-two percent of voters rate economic conditions positively, the Fox poll shows. That is the highest number, by one percentage point, in about a year. On a personal level, 44 percent rate their financial situation positively, up from 39 percent in March and 38 percent in December. The poll found that 71 percent of respondents said inflation caused them financial hardship in the last six months but that is the lowest number since 2021, and down from a high of 78 percent in 2022, Fox said. The hardship is evenly distributed with large shares of Democrats (79 percent), independents (74 percent), and Republicans (62 percent) saying they felt it. "Overall, 56 percent are dissatisfied with the direction the country is taking. The silver lining is that's an improvement: 68 percent were dissatisfied at the end of last year, and it was 66 percent last summer," Fox said. On the president's key budget legislation, the "The One Big Beautiful Bill," or OBBB, Fox said "beauty is in the eye of the beholder." More respondents disapprove (58 percent) of the legislation than approve (39 percent) and more than twice as many think the law will hurt rather than help their family. Unsurprisingly, opposition to the budget comes from a large majority of Democrats, (89 percent) and independents (70 percent), but also one in five Republicans (21 percent). The poll found that significant shares of Trump's base oppose the bill, including 52 percent of rural voters, 46 percent of white men without a college degree, and 37 percent of white evangelical Christians, Fox said. The elements of the law that voters most dislike are increasing the debt ceiling (74 percent), reducing food stamp funding (65 percent), and making tax cuts permanent for those with higher incomes (64 percent). The most popular elements include removing taxes on tips (70 percent), making tax cuts permanent for those with yearly income of less than $250,000 (68 percent), and increasing military spending (61 percent), Fox said. "The survey reveals the greatest ideological agreement is on ending taxes on tips and making tax cuts to lower-income individuals permanent, as majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents approve—as well as on increasing the debt limit, as majorities of each disapprove," Fox said. Trump gets his best marks on border security with 56 percent approval compared with 44 percent disapproval. Voters are more disapproving of the job he is doing on other top issues such as immigration (48 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove), foreign policy (45 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove), the economy (44 percent approval, 55 percent disapproval), and inflation and tariffs (36 approve while 62 percent disapprove on both). "Currently, 46 percent of voters approve of Trump's performance, while 54 percent disapprove. That's exactly where things stood last month, and better than at this point eight years ago when 41 percent approved," Fox said. Attitudes on the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities were mixed, with 47 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. On whether the strikes were mostly successful or mostly a failure, 31 percent thought the former and 27 percent the latter with the highest share, 42 percent, saying it was too soon to say. On the Epstein case, only 13 percent think the government has been open and transparent about it, with more than five times as many, 67 percent disagreeing with that, including 60 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of MAGA supporters. One voter in five says they haven't been following the case, Fox said. What People Are Saying Fox News said: "Six months into Donald Trump's second presidency, the political tea leaves are muddled." On Iran, Fox said: "Bottom line, 43 percent think Trump's dealings with Iran have made the U.S. less safe, which is 15 points higher than the 28 percent who say the country is safer," Fox said. What Happens Next The poll indicates that the Epstein case could sap Trump's support but sustained perceptions of an improving economy should help him.
USA Today
17-07-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Taxes on Social Security benefits were not eliminated despite what you've heard
All the misleading buzz about Social Security and tax cuts for seniors in "one, big, beautiful bill" foreshadows one ugly scene after another at tax preparation offices next year. It's not going to be pretty when many ill-informed retirees file 2025 tax returns. "What do you mean I'm paying taxes on my Social Security benefits?" some will no doubt ask. Already in July, I've spotted social media posts by tax professionals who dread the day when they will have to say "welcome to reality" to clients. "'Yes, your Social Security is still 85% taxable. Yes, I know that's what Trump's still saying. But pay attention to what he signed, not what he says,' he yelled for the 792,682,314th time into the void," posted Adam Markowitz, an enrolled agent in Florida, on X. What's sparking confusion for retirees about taxes The White House proclaimed, once again, "NO tax on Social Security" on July 4 when President Donald Trump signed what he calls "The One Big Beautiful Bill" into law. It's not an accurate statement. He also sent a mass email on July 12 making the same point. The Social Security Administration sent a gushy, questionable email July 4 to millions of people collecting Social Security benefits and others. Soon afterward, I heard from some retirees who couldn't believe how a federal agency was doing a hard sell about the supposed benefits and creating even more confusion. "The bill ensures that nearly 90% of Social Security beneficiaries will no longer pay federal income taxes on their benefits, providing meaningful and immediate relief to seniors who have spent a lifetime contributing to our nation's economy," Social Security stated in its email and online. Ninety percent, really? More on that one later. At one point, the email seemed to suggest that retirees were getting two tax breaks. "The new law includes a provision that eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security benefits for most beneficiaries, providing relief to individuals and couples. Additionally, it provides an enhanced deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, ensuring that retirees can keep more of what they have earned," according to a copy of the email forwarded to me. Additionally? There is no "additionally." The tax cut is an enhanced deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older. That's it. The law doesn't eliminate the risk that some will pay taxes on their Social Security benefits. The Social Security blog online now refers to a correction without saying what was wrong. "Correction Notice: This blog was updated on July 7, 2025. The second sentence of the fourth paragraph originally read, 'Additionally, it provides an enhanced deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, ensuring that retirees can keep more of what they have earned.'' The word "additionally" is no longer in the copy. Instead, the paragraph in the online blog at now reads: "The new law includes a provision that eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security benefits for most beneficiaries, providing relief to individuals and couples. It does so by providing an enhanced deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, ensuring that retirees can keep more of what they earned." Clear as mud, as one of my relatives might say. How does the 'senior bonus' work? A new, temporary "senior bonus" deduction of up to $6,000 will apply to taxpayers who are 65 and older in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. It ends after that without congressional action. Tax professionals call this a "special personal exemption" that aims to reduce the tax bill for many seniors. In general, seniors with high incomes would not qualify; lower income seniors who do not pay taxes would not benefit, either. "As a deduction and not a refundable credit, it will not help seniors who already owe no income taxes," said Mark Luscombe, principal analyst for Wolters Kluwer Tax & Accounting in Riverwoods, Illinois. Luscombe explained that higher income seniors receive a smaller tax break or no tax break because the deduction starts phasing out for those with a modified adjusted gross income of $75,000 for singles and $150,000 for joint filers. And, yes, there are plenty of other rules but, oddly enough, you do not have to be receiving Social Security benefits each month to qualify. It will not pay to be young — no matter what your income. Taxpayers who are 62, 63 and 64 at the end of a tax year do not qualify for the "senior bonus" deduction. They could still pay income taxes on Social Security benefits, if they're collecting benefits and hit certain income thresholds, without any offsetting bonus deduction. Here's a breakdown of some more rules that you'll need to know when filing a 2025 return: The National Association of Tax Professionals, which has 23,000 members, offered an example for a 70-year-old retiree who is single and has a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $90,000. In this example, $15,000 of MAGI exceeds the $75,000 threshold for a single tax filer. Take out your calculator and multiple $15,000 by 6% to hit $900. The maximum $6,000 senior bonus deduction is then reduced by $900 in this example to reach a senior deduction of $5,100. Taxes on Social Security were never eliminated Believe me, you're not doing your friends any favors now by insisting that there are no taxes on Social Security benefits. Some people still need to withhold taxes on their Social Security benefits, if they have other significant sources of income. At no point did the House bill or Senate version, which was later passed by the House and signed into law by Trump, ever include a provision to eliminate the tax on Social Security or provide a deduction for Social Security income, according to a summary of the massive reconciliation bill provided by Wolters Kluwer, an information services company. Trump famously proposed making Social Security income tax free during his 2024 campaign. But such a change could not be part of the budget reconciliation process. One provision of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 prohibits Senate reconciliation bills from including any measure that changes Social Security benefits or taxes. "It's fair to frame this new deduction as an attempt to fulfill the spirit of the president's campaign proposal consistent with the limits imposed in the reconciliation process," said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. "But selling this politically as exempting Social Security from income tax is not accurate and will confuse or upset the seniors who end up paying tax on some benefits," Watson said. The senior bonus deduction, Watson points out, applies to any source of taxable income that a taxpayer who is 65 or older has and may not necessarily eliminate all tax on Social Security benefits. Social Security benefits began being taxed at the federal level in 1984 to shore up the Social Security trust fund, which was facing insolvency. At best, the new tax break means many seniors will save some money on taxes over four years. "Despite the SSA claims, most would see their income taxes on Social Security benefits reduced, not eliminated," wrote Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. More: Grosse Pointe Farms wants bitcoin ATM crackdown after scam surge In an online report July 9, Gleckman wrote that the biggest beneficiaries are seniors making between about $80,000 and $130,000. The senior bonus deduction would for that group would amount to an average tax cut of about $1,100 or roughly 1% of their after-tax income, he said. The tax deduction of up to $6,000 would benefit fewer than half of older adults, according to the Tax Policy Center estimates. How much a senior who qualifies for the "senior bonus" will save on taxes will depend on their taxable income, which determines your marginal tax rate. At a 12% marginal tax rate, for example, the $6,000 deduction for a single taxpayer who is 65 or older would result in $720 in tax savings, according to Watson. For a single taxpayer, the 12% tax rate applied on taxable income from $11,926 through $48,475 in 2025. Annual inflation adjustments can be made to marginal tax brackets. Hype, complexities and more can get your head spinning All this begs the question: How can Trump say there will be no taxes on Social Security benefits? Well, retirees will need to treat this one as one of those Trumpisms where, maybe, you need to study the fine print first. "The president often seems to try to put as positive a spin as possible on an issue without being totally consistent with the facts," Luscombe said. The 90% number used in the email sent by the Social Security Administration appears to track a 90% figure used by the White House. It is misleading. Many people did not have to pay taxes on Social Security benefits based on their income before the mega tax bill was signed into law July 4. About 40% of people who get Social Security currently pay income taxes on their benefits, according to an earlier report issued by the Social Security Administration in 2025. Other estimates, though, suggest that a bit more than 50% currently pay taxes. The Tax Foundation did not estimate the portion of seniors who would not pay tax on benefits under the new deduction. But noted that roughly half of all Social Security beneficiaries did not pay federal income tax on their Social Security benefits before the new tax law. Gleckman, at the Tax Policy Center, told the Detroit Free Press that the 90% figure being used by the Social Security Administration isn't close to reality. In his online blog, Gleckman said the administration apparently came up with its 90% estimate by "assuming all tax deductions, including the new senior deduction, are used only to reduce Social Security benefit taxes." "But, of course, older adults pay taxes on all their taxable income, including from sources other than Social Security," Gleckman wrote. The Tax Policy Center's estimate is that about half of all recipients will pay at least some income taxes on their Social Security benefits, Gleckman wrote. "That is, they face higher tax liability than they would if benefits were not taxable. "The Social Security system is complicated, and, in many ways, its complexity is terrifying for older adults, many of whom rely on its benefits to pay living expenses in old age. The latest SSA communication does not help and indeed may make matters worse," Gleckman wrote. How Social Security benefits are taxed will remain a complex headache for many people aged 62 and up. Based on Social Security data, nearly 23% of men and 24.5% of women who claimed retirement benefits in 2022 were age 62. The earliest age that you can claim Social Security retirement benefits is 62. By collecting as early as possible, though, you'd receive a reduced monthly retirement benefit that is cut by a small percentage for each month before your full retirement age. The full retirement age is 67 now for those born in 1960 and after. For those born earlier, the full retirement age varies and is less than 67 based on when you were born. More: Trump's Social Security tax cut unlikely, but seniors may get $4,000 'bonus' deduction More: A bigger tax break could be ahead for many people 65 and older: How it could work How Social Security benefits are taxed Unfortunately, it doesn't take much extra income to get hit with some taxes because income thresholds that trigger the tax on Social Security benefits do not adjust for inflation. For single filers, the threshold for paying taxes on up to 50% of Social Security benefits applies when your combined income is between $25,000 and $34,000 a year. Once the combined income is higher, up to 85% of benefits may be taxable. Couples filing a joint return face taxes on up to 50% of their Social Security benefits if their combined income is between $32,000 and $44,000. If the couple's combined income is higher than that, up to 85% of benefits would be taxable. Combined income is your adjusted gross income, plus nontaxable interest, such as interest on certain bonds, plus half of your Social Security benefits received that year. As a result, someone who is working while collecting Social Security benefits would need to take their earnings from a job into account. The same's true for someone who is retired and taking taxable withdrawals from traditional 401(k) plans. All that tax complexity isn't going to vanish. O'Saben, of the National Association of Tax Professionals, said he's frustrated by how the senior bonus deduction is being marketed. He heard a news story on the radio that implied that Social Security benefits were no longer taxable and he found himself yelling at the radio while driving. "There is no provision making Social Security benefits tax free," O'Saben said. Contact personal finance columnist Susan Tompor: stompor@ Follow her on X @tompor.
Miami Herald
14-07-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Reverses Course With Conservatives
President Donald Trump's approval rating has improved among those who describe themselves as conservative, an analysis of polls shows. According to polling by YouGov/The Economist, while the proportion of conservatives who approve of the president declined between March and May, it has since improved to the levels it was at the start of his second term. If he loses support among conservatives—his base—by a meaningful proportion, it could hurt Republicans in marginal seats and in swing states that are up for reelection in the 2026 midterms, potentially shifting the balance of power to Democrats in Congress. Every month, YouGov and The Economist has polled groups of U.S. adult citizens to ascertain the level of support Trump has. From reviewing each poll in the last six months, a pattern emerges among conservative voters in which support for the president declines then rebounds to its base level. In February, the pollsters found that Trump has a net approval rating among conservatives of +80 percent. This good fortune continued in March, when his conservative net approval rating peaked at +85 percent. But in April, it dropped by 14 percent to a +71 percent rating. This came when Trump announced his tariffs policy, which proved disastrous for the markets. The downward trajectory continued in May, when Trump had a net approval rating within this demographic of +67 percent. By June, Trump's approval rating had changed course. His approval rating increased slightly to +68 percent. In July, it increased to +80 percent, where it was in February. By then, Trump had softened his tariff stance and the markets had rebounded accordingly. He also passed his signature tax and spending bill, "The One Big Beautiful Bill," and authorized strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. While the polling suggests an uptick in support from conservatives, when other voters are included, there is a suggestion that dissatisfaction with Trump is growing. A Tyson Group poll, conducted June 25-26 among 1,027 U.S. adults, showed Trump at 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. Other polls have suggested the "One Big Beautiful Bill" has not been met with widespread support. Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek: "Trump looks for eye-catching opportunities that appeal to his base, not so much for their political impact as for their polling value. He is the ratings president and understands the effect certain actions will have on the media and therefore on his core voters. The attack on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities almost certainly hasn't put that program out of action but played well in the media. Politically, it may have made the whole Middle East less safe, but it made Trump appear a man of action. "His big, beautiful bill may do little for his base in the heartlands, but getting it through Congress feels like sticking it to professional politicians and therefore is a win for Trump in conservative voters' eyes. These 'wins' may be short term and tactical but will continue to give him polling boosts as polls follow the news cycles. As long as 47 remains the story, he won't succumb to the slow second-term decline more familiar in past presidencies." As Trump's presidency continues, his approval rating will likely fluctuate. In November 2026, voters will head to the midterms, where his policies will be tested. Related Articles Elmo's Account Hacked: What We KnowDonald Trump Sending Patriot Missiles to Ukraine: What to KnowDonald Trump Celebrating Club World Cup With Chelsea Leaves Fans Baffled Trump Supports Bongino Staying at FBI Amid Epstein Files Fallout 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
14-07-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Approval Rating Reverses Course With Conservatives
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. President Donald Trump's approval rating has improved among those who describe themselves as conservative, an analysis of polls shows. According to polling by YouGov/The Economist, while the proportion of conservatives who approve of the president declined between March and May, it has since improved to the levels it was at the start of his second term. Why It Matters If he loses support among conservatives—his base—by a meaningful proportion, it could hurt Republicans in marginal seats and in swing states that are up for reelection in the 2026 midterms, potentially shifting the balance of power to Democrats in Congress. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty/AP/Canva What To Know Every month, YouGov and The Economist has polled groups of U.S. adult citizens to ascertain the level of support Trump has. From reviewing each poll in the last six months, a pattern emerges among conservative voters in which support for the president declines then rebounds to its base level. In February, the pollsters found that Trump has a net approval rating among conservatives of +80 percent. This good fortune continued in March, when his conservative net approval rating peaked at +85 percent. But in April, it dropped by 14 percent to a +71 percent rating. This came when Trump announced his tariffs policy, which proved disastrous for the markets. The downward trajectory continued in May, when Trump had a net approval rating within this demographic of +67 percent. By June, Trump's approval rating had changed course. His approval rating increased slightly to +68 percent. In July, it increased to +80 percent, where it was in February. By then, Trump had softened his tariff stance and the markets had rebounded accordingly. He also passed his signature tax and spending bill, "The One Big Beautiful Bill," and authorized strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. While the polling suggests an uptick in support from conservatives, when other voters are included, there is a suggestion that dissatisfaction with Trump is growing. A Tyson Group poll, conducted June 25-26 among 1,027 U.S. adults, showed Trump at 45 percent approval and 51 percent disapproval. Other polls have suggested the "One Big Beautiful Bill" has not been met with widespread support. President Donald Trump speaks during a lunch with African leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House on July 9, 2025, in Washington. President Donald Trump speaks during a lunch with African leaders in the State Dining Room of the White House on July 9, 2025, in Washington. AP Photo/Evan Vucci What People Are Saying Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek: "Trump looks for eye-catching opportunities that appeal to his base, not so much for their political impact as for their polling value. He is the ratings president and understands the effect certain actions will have on the media and therefore on his core voters. The attack on Iran's uranium enrichment facilities almost certainly hasn't put that program out of action but played well in the media. Politically, it may have made the whole Middle East less safe, but it made Trump appear a man of action. "His big, beautiful bill may do little for his base in the heartlands, but getting it through Congress feels like sticking it to professional politicians and therefore is a win for Trump in conservative voters' eyes. These 'wins' may be short term and tactical but will continue to give him polling boosts as polls follow the news cycles. As long as 47 remains the story, he won't succumb to the slow second-term decline more familiar in past presidencies." What Happens Next As Trump's presidency continues, his approval rating will likely fluctuate. In November 2026, voters will head to the midterms, where his policies will be tested.
