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South China Morning Post
a day ago
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Transparency key to easing regional concerns over Tibet mega-dam
When Premier Li Qiang broke ground for the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo mega-dam, he marked the start of one of the most extraordinary infrastructure projects in world history. Advertisement Located in Medog, a remote county on the Tibetan Plateau, the super-dam could produce, when completed, three times the output of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze and will play a decisive role in China's commitment to become carbon-neutral by 2060. It will be a big part of the renewable energy mix that includes solar and wind power, not only in the Tibet autonomous region but for central China as well. As part of a national project to integrate the Tibetan region with development and economic growth, the renewable energy bonanza from the dam will promote population growth, tourism, and resource exploration and extraction. The 1.2 trillion yuan (US$167 billion) dam will benefit not only the local economy, but also regional development. By harnessing the river's 2,000m elevation drop in the Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, the world's deepest, it can potentially provide 300 million people with clean power, including in nearby countries such as Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Myanmar, stimulating regional economic development. Bangladesh and Myanmar suffer frequent power outages and can especially benefit from the dam's projected excess capacity. This is not to deny the countries are sceptical . India is especially opposed to the project and is planning an 11.2-gigawatt dam downstream to assert its water rights. Beijing is well aware of the controversy. The foreign ministry has said rigorous environmental protection and mitigation efforts will be made during construction, and transparency will be maintained through communication with countries downstream. Advertisement It needs to do more. To mitigate transborder disputes, it won't be enough to just say there will be 'no negative impact' downstream. China can build confidence through engagement and transparency. Timely data-sharing on dam conditions and water levels will certainly help.
The Diplomat
5 days ago
- Business
- The Diplomat
China's New Mega-Dam Raises the Stakes for Sino-Indian Hydrodiplomacy
On July 19, Chinese Premier Li Qiang officially announced the start of construction on a long-planned hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River. Billed as a centerpiece of China's clean energy drive, the dam marks a new chapter in the country's infrastructure history – one with profound implications not only for domestic development, but also for regional stability in South Asia. This is no ordinary project. First proposed in the 1990s and later elevated to national priority in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower station is widely seen as the country's most ambitious hydro initiative since the Three Gorges Dam, with Li framing it as a 'project of the century.' The dam's installed capacity will reportedly exceed 60 gigawatts – roughly triple that of the Three Gorges – generating electricity for tens of millions of homes. State media underscored its strategic importance in helping China reach its 2060 carbon neutrality target, ensure energy security in western regions, and promote high-quality development in the Tibet Autonomous Region. It is also part of China's 2035 long-term development strategy, which calls for the creation of multiple clean energy hubs along major river basins. But the project's magnitude also heightens its geopolitical sensitivity. The Yarlung Tsangpo, known as the Brahmaputra once it enters India, originates in Tibet and flows east before making a dramatic U-turn at the Great Bend and descending into Arunachal Pradesh – a territory claimed by both India and China. It eventually reaches Bangladesh and empties into the Bay of Bengal. The river sustains agriculture, fisheries, and livelihoods for over 130 million people downstream. That China's newest dam is located just upstream of this bend – before the river crosses into Indian-administered territory – has renewed long-standing concerns in New Delhi about Beijing's leverage as an upper riparian state. Those concerns are not new. Indian officials have for years raised objections to large-scale Chinese dam-building along the Yarlung Tsangpo, especially when pursued unilaterally. Following earlier project announcements in January, India's Ministry of External Affairs publicly called for prior consultation on all activities affecting shared rivers. While no new official statement had been released following last week's announcement, Indian media reported that the government is 'closely monitoring' the latest developments. Some Indian commentators have gone further, warning that Chinese dams near the border could pose strategic risks during times of heightened tensions. Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Pema Khandu openly described the proposed dam as a potential 'water bomb.' Chinese authorities, for their part, have sought to allay downstream concerns. Chinese diplomats have emphasized that the project is designed as a run-of-the-river facility that will not significantly alter water volumes flowing into India. In addition, China insists that it 'has always acted responsibly' when developing transboundary water resources. But such reassurances – though consistent in tone – have not always sufficed to calm regional unease. For downstream countries, what matters is not only hydrological facts, but also a sense of inclusion and institutional trust. That trust remains limited. At present, the only formal cooperation mechanism between China and India on water issues is a hydrological data-sharing agreement first signed in 2002. Under this memorandum, China provides India with real-time flood season data on the Yarlung Tsangpo to aid disaster preparedness in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. However, the mechanism has proven vulnerable to geopolitical strain. In 2017, during the Doklam standoff between Chinese and Indian forces, Beijing temporarily suspended data transfers – a move widely interpreted as political signaling. Although data-sharing later resumed, the episode revealed just how fragile functional cooperation can be in the absence of deeper institutional guarantees. At the heart of the issue lies a legal and diplomatic vacuum. Unlike India's water treaties with Pakistan (the Indus Waters Treaty, which India suspended following a terror attack in April) and Bangladesh (the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty), there is no binding bilateral framework governing river management between China and India. China has generally opted for flexible, bilateral memoranda rather than formal legal agreements, citing the principle of upstream states' sovereign rights to develop internal water resources. This divergence in legal philosophy – combined with mutual mistrust – has left the Yarlung Tsangpo without the kind of institutional architecture that could help prevent escalation. That absence is all the more concerning given the broader regional context. South Asia is already among the world's most water-stressed and conflict-prone river basins. Climate change is accelerating glacial melt, intensifying floods, and shifting monsoon patterns, all of which amplify the stakes of upstream interventions. Bangladesh has long expressed frustration over upstream diversions affecting its dry-season flows. Nepal has sparred with India over hydropower projects along the Ganges tributaries. In recent years, India itself considered reviving a major dam project in Arunachal Pradesh – widely viewed by analysts as a geopolitical counter to Chinese activities upstream. It would be shortsighted for China and India – Asia's two most populous nations – to allow water to become another theater of strategic rivalry. The potential for cooperation is far greater. Establishing joint monitoring mechanisms, expanding early warning systems, and launching basin-level dialogues could foster transparency and confidence. Strengthening the existing data-sharing agreement and insulating it from political disruptions would be a good first step. But building true water cooperation will require more than technical fixes. It demands institutional imagination – and political will. That kind of institutional breakthrough will not be easy. Neither China nor India has signed the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, the only global treaty governing transboundary rivers. And while India has signed binding water-sharing treaties with some neighbors, its approach remains similarly bilateral and interest-driven. In other words, both governments have historically rejected the idea that upstream development should be subject to international constraints. In this sense, their stances mirror each other: each sees itself as a regional hegemon, wary of legal obligations that might curtail sovereign decision-making. As a result, both countries have become status quo powers in a region that desperately needs rule-making. This mutual caution reflects deeper realities. In both Beijing and New Delhi, water is not just a resource – it is a symbol of authority, sovereignty, and developmental legitimacy. That makes compromise politically difficult, especially amid rising nationalist sentiment and hardening border disputes. But the absence of cooperation carries its own dangers. As climate change and geopolitical risk compound each other, what is now an institutional vacuum could easily become a vacuum of control. A shift will not come easily. But the risks of inaction are real. The Yarlung Tsangpo will continue to flow across borders, indifferent to geopolitical lines. Whether it becomes a source of contention or a channel for collaboration depends on the choices that China and India make today.
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Explainer-Why China's neighbours are worried about its new mega-dam project
By David Stanway SINGAPORE (Reuters) -China has broken ground on what it says will be the world's largest hydropower project, a $170 billion feat capable of generating enough electricity each year to power Britain. The scheme dwarfs the mighty Three Gorges Dam, currently the world's largest, and Chinese construction and engineering stocks surged after Premier Li Qiang unveiled it on the weekend. For Beijing, the project promises clean power, jobs and a jolt of stimulus for a slowing economy. For neighbours downstream, it stirs old anxieties about water security: the Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh, a lifeline for millions. WHAT EXACTLY DID CHINA APPROVE? The plan involves five dams along a 50‑km stretch where the river plunges 2,000 metres off the Tibetan Plateau. First power is expected to be generated in the early‑to‑mid 2030s, but beyond that and the price tag, China has published little information about how it intends to build the project. WHY ARE NEIGHBOURS CONCERNED That lack of information is compounding fears about water security in India and Bangladesh, which rely on the Brahmaputra for irrigation, hydropower and drinking water. The chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China, said earlier this year that the dam could dry out 80% of the river passing through the Indian state while potentially inundating downstream areas such as neighbouring Assam state. In addition to water, the dam will also mean less sediment flowing downstream, according to Michael Steckler, a professor at Columbia University. That sediment carries nutrients essential for agriculture on floodplains downstream. India and China fought a border war in this region in the 1960s, and the lack of transparency from Beijing has helped fuel speculation it might use the dam to cut off water in another conflict, according to Sayanangshu Modak, an expert on the India-China water relationship at the University of Arizona. "The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project is a matter within the scope of China's sovereign affairs," Beijing's foreign ministry said on Tuesday, adding the dam would provide clean energy and prevent flooding. "China has also conducted necessary communication with downstream countries regarding hydrological information, flood control, and disaster mitigation cooperation related to the Yarlung Zangbo project," the ministry said. India's foreign and water ministries did not respond to requests for comment. WILL IT STARVE INDIA OF WATER? But the impact of the dam on downstream flows has been overstated, in part because the bulk of the water that enters the Brahmaputra is from monsoon rainfall south of the Himalayas, and not from China, said Modak. He added that China's plans are for a "run of the river" hydropower project, which means the water will flow normally along the usual course of the Brahmaputra. India itself has proposed two dams on the Siang river, its name for the Yarlung Zangbo. One, an 11.5-gigawatt project in Arunachal Pradesh, will be India's largest if it goes ahead. Those have been proposed, in part, to assert India's claims on the river and bolster its case should China ever seek to divert the water, Modak added. "If India can show that it has been using the waters, then China cannot unilaterally divert," he said. CONTROVERSY IS COMMON Quarrels over dams and water security are not new. Pakistan has accused India of weaponising shared water supplies in the disputed Kashmir region after New Delhi suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates water sharing between the neighbours. In Egypt, a senior politician was once caught on camera proposing to bomb a controversial Nile river dam planned by Ethiopia during a long-running dispute over the project. EARTHQUAKE AND EXTREME WEATHER RISKS The dam will be built in an earthquake zone also prone to landslides, glacial‑lake floods and storms. A spree of dam building in the area sparked concerns from experts about safety following a devastating earthquake in Tibet earlier this year. A much smaller hydropower project on a nearby tributary has been limited to four‑month construction windows because of engineering challenges in high altitudes and vicious winters. Solve the daily Crossword
Reuters
22-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Explainer: Why China's neighbours are worried about its new mega-dam project
SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - China has broken ground on what it says will be the world's largest hydropower project, a $170 billion feat capable of generating enough electricity each year to power Britain. The scheme dwarfs the mighty Three Gorges Dam, currently the world's largest, and Chinese construction and engineering stocks surged after Premier Li Qiang unveiled it on the weekend. For Beijing, the project promises clean power, jobs and a jolt of stimulus for a slowing economy. For neighbours downstream, it stirs old anxieties about water security: the Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra in India and Bangladesh, a lifeline for millions. The plan involves five dams along a 50‑km stretch where the river plunges 2,000 metres off the Tibetan Plateau. First power is expected to be generated in the early‑to‑mid 2030s, but beyond that and the price tag, China has published little information about how it intends to build the project. That lack of information is compounding fears about water security in India and Bangladesh, which rely on the Brahmaputra for irrigation, hydropower and drinking water. The chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders China, said earlier this year that the dam could dry out 80% of the river passing through the Indian state while potentially inundating downstream areas such as neighbouring Assam state. In addition to water, the dam will also mean less sediment flowing downstream, according to Michael Steckler, a professor at Columbia University. That sediment carries nutrients essential for agriculture on floodplains downstream. India and China fought a border war in this region in the 1960s, and the lack of transparency from Beijing has helped fuel speculation it might use the dam to cut off water in another conflict, according to Sayanangshu Modak, an expert on the India-China water relationship at the University of Arizona. "The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project is a matter within the scope of China's sovereign affairs," Beijing's foreign ministry said on Tuesday, adding the dam would provide clean energy and prevent flooding. "China has also conducted necessary communication with downstream countries regarding hydrological information, flood control, and disaster mitigation cooperation related to the Yarlung Zangbo project," the ministry said. India's foreign and water ministries did not respond to requests for comment. But the impact of the dam on downstream flows has been overstated, in part because the bulk of the water that enters the Brahmaputra is from monsoon rainfall south of the Himalayas, and not from China, said Modak. He added that China's plans are for a "run of the river" hydropower project, which means the water will flow normally along the usual course of the Brahmaputra. India itself has proposed two dams on the Siang river, its name for the Yarlung Zangbo. One, an 11.5-gigawatt project in Arunachal Pradesh, will be India's largest if it goes ahead. Those have been proposed, in part, to assert India's claims on the river and bolster its case should China ever seek to divert the water, Modak added. "If India can show that it has been using the waters, then China cannot unilaterally divert," he said. Quarrels over dams and water security are not new. Pakistan has accused India of weaponising shared water supplies in the disputed Kashmir region after New Delhi suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates water sharing between the neighbours. In Egypt, a senior politician was once caught on camera proposing to bomb a controversial Nile river dam planned by Ethiopia during a long-running dispute over the project. The dam will be built in an earthquake zone also prone to landslides, glacial‑lake floods and storms. A spree of dam building in the area sparked concerns from experts about safety following a devastating earthquake in Tibet earlier this year. A much smaller hydropower project on a nearby tributary has been limited to four‑month construction windows because of engineering challenges in high altitudes and vicious winters.
South China Morning Post
22-07-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
China's mega dam project in Tibet sparks stock surge in hydropower, infrastructure sectors
China's construction of the world's largest hydropower dam in Tibet has boosted related stocks, as analysts predict that infrastructure construction companies, energy developers, and power grid equipment manufacturers would benefit from the substantial investment into what Beijing calls the 'project of the century'. Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Saturday announced the start of the project, situated on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India and finally into Bangladesh, state news agency Xinhua reported. The project features five cascade hydropower stations, with a total estimated investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan (US$167 billion) and an anticipated annual electricity generation capacity of 300,000 gigawatt-hours, according to Xinhua. This makes it the world's largest hydropower facility, with five times the investment and three times the capacity of China's current largest dam, the Three Gorges Dam. Stock prices in China's infrastructure construction and hydropower sectors surged when trading resumed on Monday following the announcement. Chinese Premier Li Qiang announces the commencement of the construction of the world's largest hydropower dam at a ceremony on Saturday. Photo: Xinhua Shares of Power Construction Corporation of China, a state-owned developer involved in the project, jumped 10 per cent to reach the daily limit on both Monday and Tuesday. Companies specialising in hydro equipment, such as Dongfang Electric, and cement firms, including Huaxin, also saw significant price gains on Monday.
