Latest news with #TobiasAdrian
Barnama
7 days ago
- Business
- Barnama
IMF Forum Explores How Governments Can Better Navigate Rising Borrowing Costs, Refinancing Pressures
BUSINESS KUALA LUMPUR, May 28 (Bernama) -- The 20th International Monetary Fund (IMF) Public Debt Management Forum explores and discusses how governments can better navigate the challenges of rising borrowing costs and debt refinancing pressures. The forum was jointly organised by the Finance Ministry, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and the IMF on May 27-28. The Finance Ministry said in a statement that one key focus was improving the liquidity of government bond markets to ensure investors remain confident and engaged even during times of economic uncertainty. 'Participants also explored Islamic finance's growing role in sovereign borrowing strategies, offering new opportunities for countries seeking to diversify funding sources,' it said. Finance Minister II Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan highlighted in his keynote address the importance of global collaboration in shaping resilient debt strategies in the face of rising debt vulnerabilities and shifting investor expectations. 'It is increasingly clear that the future of debt sustainability cannot rely on national efforts alone. We must strengthen cross-border collaboration, deepen institutional partnerships, and foster the exchange of knowledge to build resilience and strengthen investor confidence,' he said. The two-day forum, themed 'Managing Public Debt Amid Evolving Capital Markets' has gathered around 200 senior government officials, public debt managers and financial market experts from a total of 37 emerging and advanced countries to engage in critical discussions shaping the future of sovereign debt management. This forum discussed emerging challenges and opportunities in sovereign financing risks, weathering the market volatility, Islamic finance, digitalisation in government bond markets and the role of primary dealers as well as market makers. Besides, IMF's financial counsellor and director of the monetary and capital markets department, Tobias Adrian discussed the risks to global financial stability and emphasised the importance of debt transparency.
South China Morning Post
26-04-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
A world economy on the brink could use some win-win cooperation
The global economy is like a vehicle hurtling towards the edge of a cliff, with US President Donald Trump asleep or inebriated at the wheel. Financial markets are trying to jump off before it is too late but it is not only the US leader who seems oblivious. Advertisement It might be an exaggeration to speak of an official cover-up in the face of extreme danger but the misguided efforts by some officials to play down the risks are reminiscent of attempts in the run-up to the Great Depression to downplay the approaching calamity. US officials have offered anodyne assurances that, somehow, all will be well. To be charitable, some officials might believe they're doing the world a service by not creating alarm. The failure to acknowledge economic and financial reality was evident in a briefing on April 22 by Tobias Adrian, financial counsellor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and his colleagues, at the launch of the organisation's latest Global Financial Stability Report. The report identifies some potential systemic risks just like the executive summary of the IMF's World Economic Outlook does. But Adrian framed the recent alarmed reaction of financial markets as a 'smooth' absorption of shocks, suggesting that highly nervous US Treasury markets – the linchpin of the global financial system – are operating with relative calm. Advertisement By no means does everyone believe this assertion. Alex Isakov and Adriana Dupita at Bloomberg Economics note the IMF's tendency to understate the immediate impact on global growth in its initial assessment during times of crisis. 'However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse,' they said.
The Print
22-04-2025
- Business
- The Print
IMF cuts India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.2%
This reflects a more cautious outlook amid global trade disruptions posed by the reciprocal tariffs by the US and domestic challenges. New Delhi [India], April 22 (ANI): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered India's growth projection for the fiscal year 2025-26 to 6.2 per cent. In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for April, it slashed the economic growth rate forecast of almost every economy. In its annual publication, the global body said that the growth outlook for the Indian economy is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025 (Fiscal 2025-26). The growth of the Indian economy is supported by private consumption, especially in the rural areas but this rate is 0.3 percentage points lower than in the January 2025 WEO estimate, impacted by the trade tensions and global uncertainties. In January of the current year, the IMF had projected a growth rate of 6.5 per cent for both the fiscal years of 2026 and 2027, which will stay at 6.2 for the current fiscal year and 6.3 for the next fiscal year, according to the IMF. The outlook of the IMF is lower than the projections of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has projected the growth rate of 6.5 per cent. Announcing the decisions taken by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted that the agriculture sector is expected to perform well this year due to healthy reservoir levels and strong crop production. He noted that manufacturing activity is also picking up pace, with business expectations remaining positive. Meanwhile, the services sector continues to show resilience, contributing steadily to economic growth. He acknowledged that growth is improving after a weak performance in the first half of the last financial year, although it still remains below the level the country aspires to achieve. Amid the tariff tensions, every credit rating agency has revised growth projections. According to Morgan Stanley, there is a downside risk of 30-60bps to its growth estimate of 6.5 per cent for F26. Major consultancy company EY India said in its estimates that the GDP growth will come down to 6 per cent. Going further, the IMF in its global financial stability report raised concerns citing the tariffs and global uncertainties. 'Our assessment is that the global financial stability risk has increased significantly due to heightened economic policy uncertainty and rising market volatility. The decline in investor confidence that we have seen has triggered recent sell-offs in equity markets. The tightening of global financial conditions is putting downside pressure on economic activity,' said IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian. (ANI) This report is auto-generated from ANI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.
Daily Mail
22-04-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Wall Street must speak up as Trump continues his attacks on Federal Reserve boss, says ALEX BRUMMER
The downgrade to British and global growth in the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report will come as no surprise. Donald Trump's random 'Liberation Day' tariffs imposed on April 2, then subsequently watered down, shattered confidence in the world trading system. It has plundered equity markets and placed nations, global companies and consumers on panic stations. Britain may still grow this year, if the IMF is right, but output will be weaker than expected, reducing Labour's bombast about growth to rubble. As worrying for the City and financial markets is the Fund's Global Financial Stability report. In the past it frequently has been laced with dire warnings. But the latest assessment from the Fund's capital markets guru Tobias Adrian is, by IMF standards, almost apocalyptic. All financial stability reports tend to be defensive in nature. The guardians of financial safety never want to be caught short again as they were before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. If share investors would like to think the worst is over after the tumult this month, they should think again. The IMF argues that 'valuations remain high in some key equity areas'. The Magnificent Seven tech giants, which have garnered such big support in recent times, are a case in point. Apple's supply chain, so deeply dependent on China, has been exposed as fragile. It took a targeted personal intervention by the group's garlanded boss Tim Cook with the White House to get a temporary tariff derogation on laptops and phones. Tesla faces boycotts across the world in response to Elon Musk's ravings. Both Google-owner Alphabet and Facebook-controller Meta are facing caustic anti-trust challenges. If anyone thought finance had been shielded from another GFC by the repairs made to bank capital, think again. Much risk now sits outside the most regulated institutions. The collapse of Archegos Capital Management in 2023 could be the canary in the mine. The IMF notes that the highly leveraged hedge fund and asset management sectors have grown so rapidly that they present a new 'nexus' of risk. Deleveraging could cause a spiral that will 'exacerbate' market turmoil. Just to remind people, the UK is on the cusp of allowing the sale of the Royal Mail to Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky in a deal which piles on an extra £3billion of debt to the £2billion on the balance sheet. That is the height of folly. An implosion among non-banks, such as hedge funds and private equity, could also ignite a crisis in the sovereign debt markets. The Fund is particularly concerned about emerging markets. But the US itself and Britain are not immune. The unwinding of popular, complex trades in US Treasuries could easily lead to selling pressure in American money markets as it did in the UK gilts market in the autumn of 2022. Then the Bank of England had to step in to prevent what was described at the time as a cascade of insolvencies. The exposure of US banks to under-regulated intermediaries such as hedge funds has surged from 6 per cent in 2010 to 16 per cent now. That represents 120 per cent of regulated capital. Remember how easily Credit Suisse was undone in March 2023. Despite the risks, the big beasts of Wall Street, such as Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan, have been oddly silent as President Trump has upped the ante in his attacks on Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell, disgracefully describing him as 'a loser'. Where is the leadership when Wall Street and the world needs it most? Pepsi flattened When it comes to the fizzy drink wars, Coca-Cola has outpaced Pepsi, which has sought to defend itself by weighing into the snack markets. Pepsi, which dropped to third place behind Dr Pepper in the vast American market, has a new problem. It moved much of its production of the secret concentrate ingredients – which it sends to bottlers who add the gas, water and packaging – to Ireland. Pepsi was seduced by the Emerald Isle by 12.5 per cent corporation tax (15 per cent since October 2024). Coke stuck with Atlanta. Now Pepsi faces tariff barriers around the world rusting away at margins. It has a nasty case of the yipes.
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
IMF says financial stability risks increased significantly amid trade turmoil
By Pete Schroeder WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Global financial stability risks have increased significantly since the fall, driven largely by heightened economic uncertainty around trade policy and other geopolitical factors, the International Monetary Fund cautioned Tuesday. In its semiannual Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF cautioned tightening financial conditions, coupled with heightened uncertainty, is driving up financial risks worldwide. "The overall level of policy uncertainty has forecast of economic activity going forward is slightly lower," said Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department. The warning of higher financial risks comes as the IMF cut growth forecasts for most countries, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs. Specifically, the IMF flagged three vulnerabilities that could weigh on financial stability going forward. One, valuations still remain high in some equity and corporate debt markets despite recent selloffs, leaving room for further declines. Second, some highly leveraged financial institutions, such as hedge funds, could come under strain in volatile markets and exacerbate any selloffs. And lastly, more turmoil could weigh on sovereign debt markets, particularly for countries with high debt levels. The IMF's latest update to its gauge of financial risks comes after the election of President Donald Trump, and his efforts to impose sweeping tariffs with trading partners across the globe. The report comes as the IMF and World Bank kick off their semiannual meeting in Washington. Specifically, the IMF warned that tariff turmoil could weigh heavily on banks, as a trade shock could force banks to park more funds against potential losses, reduce noninterest income if there is a slowdown in capital markets, or disrupt trade finance, a driver of $18 billion in bank revenue worldwide. "Trade finance depends on stable cash flows, supply chains, and regulatory frameworks, all of which might be disrupted by abrupt tariff changes," the report stated. In response to these risks, the IMF reiterated its call for regulators globally to ensure banks have sufficient capital and liquidity, including by implementing the global "Basel III" accord on higher capital standards. Specifically, the IMF called for "full, timely and consistent implementation" of those new capital standards, which comes as U.S. regulators have abandoned prior attempts to impose those rules and instead are likely to try and craft a new standard with minimal new capital burden on banks. The IMF also called for "independent and intensive" supervision of banks, with a heightened focus on how banks and nonbanks, which do not face similar scrutiny, interact. "The growing interconnectedness across jurisdictions means that stress emanating from specific jurisdictions can have a global impact, calling for other regions to be prepared. This highlights the crucial role of both multilateral surveillance and the global financial safety net for swift and effective mitigation of financial risks," the IMF said in its report. The IMF also warned in the report that internationally active non-U.S. banks could face U.S. dollar funding pressures stemming from heightened volatility and geopolitical events. Reuters previously reported that some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress.
