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Business Standard
07-08-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Lupin shares advance 5% after Q1 results; should you buy in?
Shares of Lupin gained nearly 5 per cent on Thursday as analysts remained bullish after the firm posted a 52 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit in the first quarter of the current financial year (Q1FY26) The pharma major's stock rose as much as 4.65 per cent during the day to ₹1,937.9 per share, the biggest intraday rise since April 28 this year. The stock pared gains to trade 3.8 per cent higher at ₹1,919 apiece, compared to a 0.32 per cent decline in Nifty 50 as of 9:57 AM. Shares of the company snapped a two-day losing streak and currently trade at 5.9 times the average 30-day trading volume, according to Bloomberg. The counter has fallen 18 per cent this year, compared to a 3.6 per cent advance in the benchmark Nifty 50. Lupin has a total market capitalisation of ₹88,332.65 crore. Lupin Q1 results The drug maker reported a profit after tax (PAT) of ₹1,221 crore in the April-June quarter, marking an increase of 72 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Revenue rose to ₹6,164 crore in the first quarter as against ₹5,514 crore in the year-ago period. The company said its sales in the US stood at ₹2,404 crore in the June quarter, registering a growth of 24 per cent as compared to ₹1,934 crore in the year-ago period. India sales for Q1 FY26 stood at ₹2,089 crore, up 8 per cent from ₹1,938 crore. "We continue to build strong business momentum, anchored by a robust product portfolio, improved efficiencies, and effective use of assets and investments," Managing Director Nilesh Gupta said. "As we begin the year, our sharpened focus on compliance, innovation, and technology positions us to further unlock sustainable growth," he added. Analysts on Lupin Q1 results Antique Stock Broking noted that Lupin delivered a strong first-quarter performance for FY26. Ebitda rose 28 per cent Y-o-Y despite a 38 per cent increase in R&D expenses. The quarter marked the launch of Tolvaptan (gJynarque) under sole FTF exclusivity in the US, boosting US sales to $282 million, it said, adding that the base US business saw single-digit price erosion. A further ramp-up is expected in the second quarter, analysts said. It maintained a 'Buy' rating on the stock with a revised target of ₹2,450 per share (earlier ₹2,395). Systematix Institutional Equities said that while revenue and Ebitda came in below expectations, net profit was in line. The revenue and Ebitda miss was primarily due to lower-than-expected US sales, it noted. The brokerage has revised its estimates to reflect a higher contribution from generic Mirabegron over the year. Systematix maintains a 'Hold' rating on Lupin with a target price of ₹2,050. Lupin's superior performance was driven by 180-day exclusivity in tolvaptan and continued running in gSpiriva and gMyrbetriq, according to analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities. FY26 is a strong year for Lupin with further launches of glucagon and liraglutide over the next few months, it said. They retained 'Buy' with a target price of ₹2,340 per share.
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Business Standard
21-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Pharma industry stares at muted Q1 earnings growth amid sliding sales
The Indian pharmaceutical industry is set to report a muted earnings performance for the first quarter of the financial year 2026 (Q1FY26), largely due to sliding sales of blockbuster generic cancer drug Revlimid coupled with moderated growth in the domestic formulations sales. Analysts estimate year-on-year (Y-o-Y) revenue growth of 9 per cent with a profit after tax (PAT) growth in the range of 3-4 per cent. Stable pricing scenario in the US generics market and rupee depreciation is expected to drive double digit revenue growth. Nuvama analysts said that the US sales will post a modest 1 per cent Y-o-Y growth affected by generic Revlimid price erosion. Some players like Lupin will see their US growth being driven by sustained market shares in products like generic Spiriva (respiratory drug) and the Tolvaptan (kidney disorder drug) launch. Aggregate margins for the pharma companies in the Nuvama universe is estimated to be around 26 per cent (down 32 bps Y-o-Y) weighed down by generic Revlimid price erosion. This ongoing price erosion in this key drug is likely to hurt US sales for Aurobindo, Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL), Cipla and Zydus Lifesciences in the quarter under review. Phillip Capital pointed out that DRL will continue to lead the Revlimid sales with $180 million followed by Cipla ($80 mn) and Zydus ($70 mn). 'While we expect 1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in US sales for our coverage universe, Zydus may post 4 per cent Y-o-Y growth due to incremental contribution from generic Myrbetriq, which can partially offset generic Revlimid price erosion. Lupin's US business is likely to grow 17 per cent Y-o-Y to $ 265mn due to the recent launch of Tolvaptan and stable market share in generic Spiriva,' Nuvama analysts said. Material new launches in the US remain limited. Phillip Capital said that while Indian drug companies will continue to see benefits from opportunities like generic Spiriva, Myrbetriq, Ustekinumab etc. in the US and Rupee depreciation, their US generics business is expected to see flat performance (2 per cent growth Y-o-Y) due to weaker generic Revlimid supplies and limited new launches. Sun Pharma's global specialty business is likely to post a robust showing in the first quarter while Cipla's US revenues are likely to remain flat sequentially at $220 million. Its market share in Lanreotide (for neuroendocrine tumours) has come down to 15 per cent, versus 20 per cent in Q1FY25, Nuvama said. Home turf On the domestic front, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Sun Pharma and DRL tend to outperform in the first two months of Q1. The domestic pharma market has posted a 7 per cent steady growth with the cardiac, respiratory and neurological growth by 11.4 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 9.3 per cent Y-o-Y respectively. Oncology and cardiology are the two therapies that have registered double digit Y-o-Y growth. Nuvama estimated their coverage universe to report 10 per cent Y-o-Y domestic sales growth led by Torrent and Sun Pharma. Axis Securities Equity Research pointed out that on a sequential basis, however, the India business will see muted growth driven by sluggish performance in chronic therapies and a recovery in acute therapies. Axis expects some margin improvement (around 30 bps Y-o-Y) for most companies in its coverage, led by new launches, stable freight costs and decline in active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) prices, lower input costs and a better product mix towards niche launches. Healthcare segment In the healthcare segment, average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) is estimated to grow by 7-8 per cent Y-o-Y leading to revenue growth of 14-19 per cent Y-o-Y and 5-6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). Occupancies are also likely to improve by 100bps. Nuvama said that hospitals are on a steady footing in a seasonally soft quarter, barring Apollo Hospitals, which would see lower occupancy (down 300bps Y-o-Y) due to Bangladesh patients' impact. JM Financial said that despite Q1 being historically soft for the hospital sector, Q1FY26 is anticipated to demonstrate robust performance. 'The coverage universe is projected to achieve over 15 per cent Y-o-Y revenue growth and 21 per cent Ebitda growth. This strong performance is primarily driven by organic bed additions and improvement in ARPOB, further bolstered by the integration of new hospital facilities, notably by Max Healthcare and KIMS.' Meanwhile, Nuvama estimates Apollo revenue growth at 11 per cent, Fortis at 15 per cent, Jupiter 16 per cent. Analysts expect growth to recover strongly to 15 per cent Y-o-Y post-slowdown seen in last quarter. Vijaya remains one of the fastest growing (17 per cent Y-o-Y); Metropolis is likely to turn in a good recovery (13 per cent Y-o-Y organic). Dr Lal Pathlabs (up 11 per cent Y-o-Y) to report steady numbers while Agilus (5 per cent Y-o-Y) would remain soft. The sector margin to stay largely steady at around 28 per cent, said analysts.
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Business Standard
21-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Revlimid erosion, slower domestic growth to weigh on Indian pharma Q1
The Indian pharmaceutical industry is expected to report a muted earnings performance for the June quarter, primarily due to declining sales of the blockbuster cancer drug generic Revlimid and subdued growth in domestic formulations. Analysts estimate year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth of 9 per cent, with profit after tax (PAT) growth in the range of 3–4 per cent. A stable pricing environment in the US generics market and rupee depreciation are expected to support double-digit revenue growth. However, pricing pressure on Revlimid is proving a major drag. Nuvama analysts expect US sales to post a modest 1 per cent YoY growth, constrained by continued price erosion in generic Revlimid. Some players, such as Lupin, will see US growth driven by sustained market share in products like generic Spiriva (a respiratory drug) and the launch of Tolvaptan (for kidney disorders). Aggregate margins for pharma companies in the Nuvama coverage universe are estimated to be around 26 per cent, down 32 basis points YoY, largely weighed down by price pressure on Revlimid. This trend is likely to impact the Q1FY26 performance of Aurobindo, Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL), Cipla and Zydus Lifesciences. Revlimid erosion remains key headwind Phillip Capital noted that DRL will continue to lead Revlimid sales with $180 million, followed by Cipla at $80 million and Zydus at $70 million. 'While we expect 1 per cent YoY growth in US sales for our coverage universe, Zydus may post 4 per cent YoY growth due to incremental contribution from generic Myrbetriq, which could partially offset Revlimid's erosion. Lupin's US business is likely to grow 17 per cent YoY to $265 million due to the recent launch of Tolvaptan and stable market share in generic Spiriva,' Nuvama analysts said. Material new launches in the US remain limited. Phillip Capital observed that while Indian drugmakers will continue to benefit from opportunities such as generic Spiriva, Myrbetriq and Ustekinumab, along with the rupee's depreciation, the US generics business is expected to post flat growth of around 2 per cent YoY due to weakening Revlimid supplies and few new launches. Sun Pharma's global specialty business is expected to post a strong Q1 performance, while Cipla's US revenue is likely to remain flat sequentially at $220 million. Its market share in Lanreotide (for neuroendocrine tumours) has declined to 15 per cent, from 20 per cent in Q1FY25, according to Nuvama. Domestic growth slows, chronic therapies drag On the domestic front, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Sun Pharma and DRL tend to outperform in the first two months of Q1. The overall domestic pharma market has posted steady 7 per cent growth, with cardiac, respiratory and neurological therapies registering 11.4 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 9.3 per cent YoY growth, respectively. Oncology and cardiology were the two therapy areas that recorded double-digit growth. Nuvama estimates its coverage universe to report 10 per cent YoY growth in domestic sales, led by Torrent and Sun Pharma. However, Axis Securities Equity Research noted that sequentially, the India business is likely to see muted growth, weighed down by sluggish chronic therapy performance and only a modest recovery in acute therapies. Margins may see some tailwinds Axis Securities expects margin improvement of around 30 basis points YoY for most companies in its coverage, aided by new launches, stable freight costs, declining active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) prices, lower input costs and a shift in product mix towards niche products. Hospitals to deliver strong Q1 despite seasonality In the healthcare segment, average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) is expected to grow 7–8 per cent YoY, driving revenue growth of 14–19 per cent YoY and 5–6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Occupancy rates are also likely to improve by 100 basis points. Nuvama noted that hospitals are on solid ground in what is typically a seasonally soft quarter, barring Apollo Hospitals, which may see a 300 basis point YoY drop in occupancy due to reduced patient inflow from Bangladesh. JM Financial said that despite Q1 traditionally being weak for hospitals, Q1FY26 is anticipated to show strong performance. 'The coverage universe is projected to achieve over 15 per cent YoY revenue growth and 21 per cent EBITDA growth. This strong performance is primarily driven by organic bed additions and improvement in ARPOB, further bolstered by the integration of new hospital facilities, notably by Max Healthcare and KIMS.' Nuvama estimates Apollo's revenue growth at 11 per cent, Fortis at 15 per cent, and Jupiter at 16 per cent. Diagnostics show signs of recovery Analysts expect growth to recover strongly to 15 per cent YoY following the slowdown in the previous quarter. Vijaya remains one of the fastest-growing players with 17 per cent YoY growth. Metropolis is likely to post a healthy recovery at 13 per cent YoY (organic). Dr Lal PathLabs is expected to grow 11 per cent YoY, while Agilus may see softer growth of 5 per cent. The sector's margin is expected to remain steady at around 28 per cent, analysts added.
Mint
02-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Stocks to buy: Lupin, Kalpataru Projects, Max Healthcare, among small-cap, mid-cap stock picks for July
For the month of July, Axis Securities has recommended a selection of mid-cap stocks including Lupin Ltd, Max Healthcare Institute Ltd, Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd, Prestige Estates Projects Ltd, and APL Apollo Tubes Ltd, along with small-cap stocks such as Sansera Engineering Ltd and Kalpataru Projects International Ltd. The brokerage is of the opinion that the Indian market began to recover from March 2025, evidenced by a 15% increase in the Nifty 50, and a rise of 25% and 29% in the Mid and Small-cap sectors respectively, since the lows recorded in February 2025. In the past month, the Small-cap index has appreciated by 5.7%, while the Mid-cap index has climbed by 4%, in contrast to the Nifty 50, which has seen a modest rise of 3.1%. Axis Securities believes that the risk-reward scenario is gradually favoring Mid and Small-cap stocks. However, the recovery is expected to be slow and steady as we approach FY26, driven by optimistic earnings projections, enhanced domestic liquidity, and stable macroeconomic conditions in India. In light of this situation, the brokerage continue to prioritize growth at a reasonable price, focusing on 'quality' stocks, monopolistic companies, market leaders in their fields, and sectors and stocks that are oriented towards the domestic market. The brokerage house anticipates that these may outperform the overall market in the near future. According to the brokerage, Lupin is optimistic about its growth trajectory, bolstered by robust new product launches, an expanding portfolio of complex generics, and a strong pipeline. In the US market, the recently introduced Darunavir and Spiriva have captured market shares of 30% and 25%, respectively. The recently launched Tolvaptan (with a market size of $287 million) and Xyway (with a market size of $958 million and 180-day exclusivity) are anticipated to add to revenue in the first half of the year. As per the brokerage, Max Healthcare maintains a balanced revenue mix, with consistent growth observed in both its institutional and international patient segments. The recent increase in the share of institutional business is anticipated to stabilise as more higher-value payer segments develop. Although the launch of new hospitals might initially impact margins, this effect should diminish as these facilities enhance their operational capabilities. Profitability in Lucknow and Nagpur is projected to further improve, supported by rising occupancy rates and the rollout of new clinical programs. The brokerage expressed its appreciation for the company's overarching long-term strategy, which aims to drive revenue growth through several initiatives: 1) Introducing premium science-based products to improve overall realizations, 2) Building the category by boosting awareness through marketing efforts, 3) Enhancing the frequency of consumption and penetration in rural areas, and 4) Broadening the personal care lineup to reduce risks linked to the sluggish growth in the oral care segment. Furthermore, the demand landscape is expected to improve in the upcoming quarters, and the recent decline in stock prices offers a better margin of safety. As a result, they continue to uphold their BUY rating with a new target price of ₹ 2,830/share. Top picks stocks for July Based on brokerage insights, following a lackluster performance in 9MFY25, PEPL's pre-sales surged in Q4FY25, totaling ₹ 6,957 Cr (+48% YoY), fueled by an increase in property launches (14 Mn sq. ft.). The growth primarily resulted from price increases, with additional support from a stronger regional contribution. However, despite this recovery, FY25 pre-sales fell 19% YoY due to postponed launches linked to regulatory challenges, leading to a ~30% shortfall compared to the initial target of ~ ₹ 24,000 Cr. Looking ahead to FY26E, Prestige plans to counter the subdued FY25 results with an extensive launch pipeline valued at ₹ 42,000 Cr. Along with an existing inventory valued at ₹ 21,000 Cr, we believe Prestige is well-equipped to achieve a 65% YoY increase in pre-sales, reaching ₹ 28,000 Cr. As per the brokerage's analysis, the firm aims to increase its capacity to 10 MTPA by FY30, offering a favorable growth opportunity in the long term. We uphold our target price of ₹ 2,035 per share. The stock is currently priced at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 38x. The brokerage assesses it with a 12-month forward target multiple of 35x based on our estimated EPS for FY27. As per the brokerage, the firm is poised to take advantage of a strong order backlog, favorable trends in both the domestic and international Transmission & Distribution (T&D) and Building & Factory (B&F) sectors, enhanced performance from its overseas subsidiaries, favorable government policies, and anticipated improvements in margins. It is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18%/22%/41% for the period from FY25 to FY27E. Based on the brokerage's analysis, considering factors such as a) a larger proportion of sales in Non-Automotive ICE components, b) a rising trend toward premium products, c) a dedicated focus on enhancing margin performance, d) a strong capability to generate operating cash flow, and e) plans for capacity expansion, we anticipate that Revenue, EBITDA, and PAT will experience a CAGR of 17%, 21%, and 30%, respectively, from FY25 to FY27E. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Rhyl Journal
20-06-2025
- Health
- Rhyl Journal
‘Loving, caring' Rhuddlan mother will be ‘hugely missed'
Ann Winifred Sellwood, of Highlands Road in Rhuddlan, died aged 72 at the Bodelwyddan hospital on December 14, 2023. At the resumption of the inquest into her death, held in Ruthin today (June 20), John Gittins, senior coroner for North Wales East and Central, gave a medical cause of death of pneumonia as a result of a fall with rib fractures and chronic pulmonary disease and contributing pulmonary heart disease. Mrs Sellwood was born in Accrington on December 8, 1951, and was a retired nurse who had also run a pub with her husband Paul. Her son Paul told the inquest his mother had 'loved people', and described her as a 'great, loving, caring' person who 'looked after other people before herself'. In the five years before her death, her health had declined – she had arthritis in her back which caused mobility issues and 'made her introverted and reserved over time'. She also had a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and was on medication including an inhaler. The inquest was told she had suffered some falls in the months prior to her death, and had been admitted to Ysbyty Glan Clwyd in October (7-11), November (1-10) and again between November 25 and December 4. This was because of low sodium levels, and these levels had dropped during hospital visits. Upon her second admission to Glan Clwyd, her sodium levels were again low, with a cut on her thigh evidence of a fall four weeks prior. Dr Sanghamitra Chakrabarti, a consultant in acute geriatrics who treated Mrs Sellwood, said they started her on steroid replacement medication, which gradually saw her sodium levels improve. She was discharged on November 10 having 'never complained of chest pain or cardiac problems during this admission', and was given medication to take twice a day. However, between this and her third admission, her husband said she had started to deteriorate after around a week out of hospital. Her third admission to hospital came after another fall, and her sodium levels decreased for several days before a diagnosis of syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion (SIADH), which causes sodium levels to be lower. Dr Aye Nyunt, a consultant in general surgery, said Mrs Sellwood's sodium levels increased on December 3 and 4, and she was discharged again and prescribed Tolvaptan, which treats low sodium in the blood. READ MORE: Woman who died in crash on A548 coast road is named Abergele man died after falling from mountain range in Eryri Despite there being no plan to discharge her on December 1 (a Friday), Mrs Sellwood was moved to a different ward by December 4 in anticipation of her discharge. Dr Nyunt described Mrs Sellwood as 'mobilising independently, eating and drinking' on December 4, and was not aware of the family's concerns regarding the decision to discharge her at the time. She said Mrs Sellwood's sodium levels were 'safe enough' to be discharged, with her GP to monitor these levels weekly. Her husband Paul said the family 'disagreed on a number of occasions when told she was good to go home' and were 'given medication and not told how to use it', which he told the inquest was 'very upsetting'. Her behaviour became 'more erratic' after the third discharge from hospital, and she fell at home in the intervening period – her son Paul described her eating habits as 'really abnormal' and 'like she was starving'. He said she was not 'sound of mind' at that time, and that he felt they 'should have taken her back' to Glan Clwyd again. On December 8, she had blood tests done at her GP surgery, but the results, which show low sodium levels, did not come back until the following Monday (December 11). Later that day, Mrs Sellwood fell against a worktop at home and was 'screaming in absolute agony', and in the early hours of December 9 was re-admitted to Ysbyty Glan Clwyd. A CT scan was done on December 10, which showed rib fractures to her right side, but despite further monitoring and investigation, she died on December 14. Dr Huyam Abdalsalam, a consultant pathologist at Ysbyty Glan Clwyd, said Mrs Sellwood showed signs of cardiac disease and pneumonia, with the latter considered the terminal event. Her medical cause of death was pneumonia with contributing rib fractures and underlying smoking and heart disease. Mr Gittins gave a narrative conclusion, and confirmed a medical cause of death of pneumonia as a result of a fall with rib fractures and chronic pulmonary disease and contributing pulmonary heart disease. He said: 'On December 8 dec the deceased had a blood test at her GP surgery. 'When analysed, neither she nor her family were made aware of the results. 'That evening, she collapsed in her bedroom and sustained rib injuries which resulted in her death on December 14. Mr Gittins said that there were 'concerns that need addressing', with the health board set to investigate and conduct enquiries into how GP test results were conveyed between departments. Addressing Mrs Sellwood's family, he expressed his condolences on the 'loss of a lady who is hugely missed'.
