Latest news with #ToplineSecurities
Arab News
7 days ago
- Business
- Arab News
Pakistan central bank likely to cut interest rate at July 30 monetary policy meeting — poll
KARACHI: A majority of financial market participants expect Pakistan's central bank to cut its key interest rate by 50 to 100 basis points at its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on July 30, according to a new poll by Topline Securities published this week. The findings reflect growing market confidence that declining inflation and easing global oil prices have created space for monetary easing. In its last meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 11 percent, citing uncertainty over the federal budget and regional tensions in the Middle East. This time, a stronger consensus appears to be building toward a rate cut. In the latest survey, 56 percent of participants said they expect a 50–100 bps cut, compared to 44 percent in the previous poll, while 37 percent now expect no change, down from 56 percent in the last round. Topline's own forecast aligns with the consensus: the brokerage expects a 50 bps cut, noting that real interest rates remain elevated relative to historical averages. 'With FY26 inflation expected to average between 5–7 percent, the current policy rate of 11 percent implies real interest rates of 400–600 basis points — well above the historical range of 200–300 bps,' Topline said. The survey also offered a broader glimpse into market sentiment: 51 percent of respondents expect the policy rate to fall to 10 percent by December 2025, with another 32 percent expecting 9 percent On inflation, 54 percent forecast average inflation between 6–8 percent, while 27 percent see it between 4–6 percent On the exchange rate, 51 percent expect the rupee to hover between Rs285–290 per US dollar by December 2025 Topline expects July inflation to fall to 3–3.5 percent, with prices staying between 3–5 percent through January 2026 before inching up to 6–8 percent through mid-2026. Pakistan's government has set a 7.5 percent inflation target for FY26, while the IMF projects an average of 7.7 percent. Secondary market signals also point to easing: yields on 6-month KIBOR and T-bills have dropped by 10–39 bps since the last MPC meeting. The 6M KIBOR currently stands at 10.99 percent, while the 6-month T-bill is at 10.75 percent.
Business Recorder
23-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
PSX witnesses robust rally
KARACHI: Pakistan Stock Exchange surged on Tuesday as investor sentiment strengthened. Confidence rose after a meeting between business leaders and Field Marshal Asim Munir coupled with the government's Senate majority win further eased political uncertainty. The benchmark KSE-100 Index surged by 1,202 points or 0.87 percent to close at 139,419.62 points, up from the previous day's close of 138,217.58. During intraday trading, the index touched a high of 139,901.78 and the low of 138,197.81 points before settling with strong momentum. On Tuesday, BRIndex100 closed at 14,344.60 points which was 205 points or 1.45 percent higher than previous close. The total volume remains 437.04 million shares. Also the BRIndex30 closed at 39,750.82 points which was 423.86 points or 1.08 percent higher than previous close with the total volume remaining 190.89 million shares. According to Topline Securities, the bulls roared back to life in Tuesday's trading session, lifting the benchmark index to impressive levels. It further noted that the rally was fuelled by positive investor sentiment and renewed market confidence, as the index moved upward ahead of the anticipated announcement of strong corporate results. This wave of optimism helped paint a bullish picture across the board, setting the tone for a potentially upbeat week ahead. The surge in buying was accompanied by increased trading activity. Total volume in the ready market stood at 629 million shares, up from 608 million of yesterday, while traded value also jumped to Rs 34.67 billion from Rs 23.52 billion in the previous session. Among volume leaders, First Dawood Properties led the board with 44 million shares traded, closing at Rs 7.64. WorldCall Telecom followed with 26.4 million shares and closed at Rs 1.46, while PTCL recorded a turnover of nearly 25 million shares and settled at Rs 23.96. In terms of gains, Unilever Pakistan Foods emerged as the top performer, soaring by Rs 2,279.22 to close at Rs. 27,777.22, while Nestlé Pakistan added Rs 45.45 to finish at Rs. 7,445.45. However, PIA Holding Company Limited-B plunged by Rs 3,101.53 to close at Rs 27,913.79, and Pakistan Services Limited declined by Rs 117.42 to settle at Rs 1,097.22. Market capitalization rose from Rs. 16.505 trillion to Rs. 16.629 trillion, reflecting the addition of Rs 124 billion to the market cumulative capital price. Out of 478 companies traded on the ready counter, 268 advanced, 178 declined, and 32 remained unchanged — showcasing a strong bullish breadth across the board. The BR Automobile Assembler Index closed at 22,626.13 points after gaining 49.69 points, reflecting a 0.22 percent increase, with a total turnover of 5.27 million shares. The BR Cement Index climbed to 10,714.73 points, marking a rise of 28.86 points or 0.27 percent, as over 35 million shares changed hands during the session. The BR Commercial Banks Index registered a modest gain, adding 96.63 points or 0.24 percent to settle at 40690.84 points, with turnover reaching 58.69 million shares. The BR Power Generation and Distribution Index ended the day at 21,486.47 points, having advanced 52.86 points or 0.25 percent, while total traded shares stood at 21.37 million shares. Meanwhile, the BR Oil and Gas Index concluded at 12,100.68 points after a robust gain of 208.06 points or 1.75 percent, supported by a turnover of 43.72 million shares. The BR Technology and Communication Index saw a slight increase of 4.55 points or 0.15 percent to close at 2,995.94 points, with 86.23 million shares traded. According to Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation, stocks were trading at new all-time highs after the business leaders' meeting with Field Marshal Munir assured the military's support for economic progress, while the government's Senate majority helped bolster investor confidence. He noted that speculation over possible monetary easing by the State Bank of Pakistan next week, alongside expectations of strong financial results and generous annual payouts during the earnings season, played a catalytic role in sustaining bullish activity at the PSX. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
22-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Index declines on volatile trade
KARACHI: Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened the new week on a volatile note. Monday's downturn was largely attributed to investor profit-taking ahead of July-end, as well as cautious sentiment following a record-breaking run. The benchmark KSE-100 Index declined by 379.78 points, or 0.27 percent, to close at 138,217.58 points as compare to the previous session close of 138,597.36 points. The index moved within a narrow range, hitting an intraday high of 139,201 points and a low of 138,150 points. On Monday, BRIndex100 closed at 14,139.60 points which was 59.97 points or 0.42 percent lower than previous close with the total volume was 471.707 million. While BRIndex30 closed at 39,326.96 points which was 184.91 points or 0.47 percent lower than previous close with the total volume remain 203.005 million shares. According to Topline Securities, the market remained range-bound throughout the session as investors adjusted portfolios ahead of futures settlement. Major drag on the index came from Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC), United Bank Limited (UBL), Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Systems Limited (SYS), and Hub Power Company (HUBC), collectively shaving off 438 points. However, support came from Habib Bank Limited (HBL), Engro Fertilizers (EFERT), and Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans (PABC), which together contributed 152 points. Market activity on Monday remained solid but showed a slight retreat from the prior session. The ready market recorded a total trading volume of 608 million shares, marginally down from 609 million previously. However, traded value declined more noticeably to Rs 23.5 billion, compared to Rs 31.6 billion on Friday, reflecting reduced participation in high-value blue-chip counters. Among the volume leaders, Prud Modaraba First topped the chart with 58.7 million shares, closing at Rs. 4.98. It was followed by K-Electric Limited, which traded 53.1 million shares and settled at Rs. 5.43, and Pak International Bulk Terminal (PIBTL) with 51.7 million shares, closing at Rs. 10.06. In terms of price gains, high-end consumer stocks led the board. Unilever Pakistan Foods surged by Rs 988, ending at Rs 25,498, while Nestlé Pakistan climbed Rs 86.97 to close at Rs 7,400. Conversely, some major scrips witnessed steep losses. PIA Holding Company Limited-B plunged by Rs 3,446, closing at Rs 31,015.32, making it the biggest loser of the day. Bata Pakistan also recorded a notable drop, shedding Rs 35.44 to close at Rs 1,650.89. Market capitalization also saw a modest decline, slipping to Rs 16.505 trillion from Rs 16.517 trillion in the previous session. The Rs. 12 billion decrease reflects valuation erosion across key blue-chip stocks and indicates the impact of profit-booking on investor equity wealth. Out of 479 active companies in the ready market, 245 closed lower, 193 advanced, and 41 remained unchanged—highlighting the breadth of the pullback. BR Automobile Assembler Index closed at 22,576.44 points with a net positive change of 195.12 points or a percentage change of 0.87 and a total turnover remains 5.628 million. BR Cement Index ended at 10,685.87 points with a net negative change of 19.41 points or a percentage change of 0.18 and a total turnover of 20.83 million shares. BR Commercial Banks Index saw a dip of 76.76 points or 0.19 percent and finished at 40,594.21 points with a total turnover of 52.65 million shares changing hand. BR Power Generation and Distribution Index also dipped 168.72 or 0.78 percent and closed at 21,433.61 points and a total turnover remains 56.55 million shares. BR Oil and Gas Index closed at 11,892.62 points with a net negative change of 37.42 points or a percentage change of 0.31 percent and a total turnover was 17.08 million shares. BR Technology & Communication Index closed at 2,991.39 points with a net negative change of 29.52 points or a percentage change of 0.98 and a total turnover of 44 million shares. In his post session comments, Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation noted that Stocks closed under pressure amid geo political uncertainty and concerns over surging inflation to impact SBP policy announcement next week. He further noted that Rupee instability, and concerns over external debt repayments due in FY26 played catalyst role in bearish activity at PSX. While JS Global expects that the market will consolidate around current levels, with sentiment largely dependent on upcoming corporate results, macroeconomic indicators, and clarity regarding foreign investment flows. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
21-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Pakistan's power generation increases 8% in June
Power generation in Pakistan clocked in at 13,744 GWh in June 2025, an increase of over 8% MoM compared to the generation recorded in April 2025, suggesting an uptick in economic activity. Back in May 2025, power generation stood at 12,755 GWh. Analysts noted that rising temperatures and a significant increase in hydel generation i.e. 12% MoM also helped in demand improvement. On a yearly basis, power generation surged by 2% as compared to 13,461 GWh in June 2024. In FY25, power generation remained largely flattish, increasing by 0.1% YoY to 127,159 GWh compared to 127,059 GWh in the SPLY. 'Power generation in Pakistan in FY25 has remained flat on a YoY basis because companies relied largely on their power generation throughout the year amidst expensive grid energy,' said Topline Securities. 'The government introduced off off-grid levy in February 2025 to discourage the use of captives and encourage companies to move to the grid. 'Alongside this, the prime minister also reduced overall unit cost by over Rs5/kwh in Apr, May and Jun 2025 after savings from negotiations with IPPs and relocation of PDL amount to electricity saving. As a result of this, in 4QFY25, the electricity production was up 7%,' it noted. On the other hand, the total cost of generating electricity in Pakistan was up 1%, clocking in at Rs7.9 KWh in June 2025 compared to Rs7.8 KWh registered in May 2025. On a yearly basis, the cost was down 9%, compared to Rs8.6 KWh in June 2024. In June, hydel emerged as the leading source of power generation, accounting for 39% of the generation mix, to become the largest source of electricity generation. This was followed by RLNG, which accounted for 16% of the overall generation, ahead of coal local, which accounted for 11% of the power generation share. Among renewables, wind and solar generation amounted to 4% and 1%, respectively, of the generation mix.
Business Recorder
18-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
KSE-100 closes flat after hitting record intra-day high
The Pakistan Stock Exchange's (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 Index closed the week's last session nearly flat, as investors resorted to profit-taking after the index crossed 140,000 level for the first time during intra-day trading on Friday. The KSE-100 started the session positive, hitting record intra-day high of 140,585.39. However, profit-taking in the latter hours erased the earlier gains. At close, the benchmark index settled at 138,597.36, marginally lower by 68.14 points or 0.05. 'KSE-100 Index opened on a positive note and gained to make an intra-day high of +1,920 points (+1.38%) on buying by local institutions. However, profit-taking was observed in the second half of trading session as investors came in to book their profit before the weekend,' brokerage house Topline Securities said in its post-market report. Top positive contribution to the index came from FFC, UBL, ENGROH, PSEL, PABC & EFERT, as they cumulatively contributed 1,052 points to the index. On the other hand SYS, MEBL, HUBC, NBP and MARI, lost value to weigh down on the index by 345 points to the index. On Thursday, PSX had extended its bullish momentum, with the KSE-100 gaining 2,285 points or 1.68% to a new all-time closing high of 138,665.50. Market experts noted that the positivity was expected to continue, supported by positive economic indicators. 'Momentum is expected to continue amid the upcoming result season. However, there will be episodes of profit-taking as the market move towards consolidation,' Sana Tawfik, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, told Business Recorder earlier during the day. Internationally, Asian shares tracked Wall Street higher on Friday as still-strong US economic data and robust corporate earnings offset tariff worries, while the yen headed toward a second successive week of loss ahead of Japan's upper house election. Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq again closed at record highs as US data, including retail sales and jobless claims, beat forecasts, indicating a modest improvement in the economy that should give the Federal Reserve time to gauge the inflation impact from higher US tariffs. Streaming giant Netflix beat Wall Street's lofty expectations for second-quarter earnings in part due to a weaker US dollar. Its share price, however, fell 1.8% in after-hours trading, with analysts saying much of the growth had already been priced in. On Friday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.8% to its highest since late 2021, bringing the weekly gain to 1.7%. Japan's Nikkei, however, slipped 0.2%, and the yen was at 148.54 per dollar, down about 0.7% this week after polls showed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the election on Sunday.
