Latest news with #TruMedia
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NFL is the ultimate 'copycat league.' So what trends will we see in 2025?
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. 'Copycat league' is the common refrain when a trend starts appearing enough in the NFL to invoke the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, whether it be a coaching hire, a personnel preference, a scheme quirk. These things catch on quickly in the ever-evolving and ever-changing world of NFL teams that are constantly studying themselves, their rivals, and their collegiate and high school peers. Advertisement What takes the league by storm in September will be imitated, dominated, and even improved upon by the time the holiday season rolls around (ask the recent Dolphins offenses). Sometimes there are schemes that have fallen out of favor that have been dusted off, redesigned or distilled and found new ways — or sometimes just the classic ways — to be used. Even as just a change-up to whatever has become the norm. Straight dropback passing is making a comeback One type of play that I think will start gaining more favor, even if it's just a slightly bigger blip on the radar, is a tried-and-true play that you could say John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt helped invent. That's the straight dropback pass from under center. Advertisement Throwing the ball without any play action (a play fake to the running back) is one of the main food groups of football concepts. But what was once the staple of this diet, throwing the ball from under center, has instead been substituted with a lean into the pass-centric nature of modern offenses. There's been more shotgun or even pistol as the base set of offenses, which helps create space and read elements in the run game for more athletic quarterbacks and allows them to see more of the field. Under center plays have morphed into a clear signal of either a run play to a back, or play action off faking it. It's removed scissors in the constant game of rock, paper, scissor that offenses and defenses throw at each other. Basing out of shotgun absolutely has benefits in attacking a defense, including certain RPOs and in quick game, along with varying motion quirks you can throw in. But I think the NFL hit its nadir in using straight dropback passing, which was once a Day 1 installation for offensive football. Advertisement NFL offenses threw the ball from under center on early downs 11,367 times in 2002, over 22 times a game. In 2024 that number was 2,855, or 5.3 times per game. And that's including play action. Without play action, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2023 before having a slight increase this past season. I think we'll see an upswing in usage as teams see the benefits of giving defenses another thing to think about. All while hunting explosive plays on early downs and having some old-school soundness in protection and play design. (The classics are the classics for a reason. Even if they aren't cool at the moment.) The offensive play-callers that are the main practitioners of this ancient art of passing are actually the coaches that were recently labeled as the wunderkinds of the league. The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan led the way with 2.6 under center dropbacks without play action on early downs per game in 2024, averaging over nine yards per play. The Saints under Klint Kubiak (of the same Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree) were in second. Kubiak's 2021 offense, meanwhile, ran more than five per game, and his father Gary's offenses in Minnesota topped the leaderboard since 2019. Other offenses from the same tree rounded out the top five of straight dropback passing in 2024, including the Texans, Vikings and Lions. Brock Purdy and the 49ers led the NFL in under center dropbacks with no play action on early downs in 2024. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) (Thearon W. Henderson via Getty Images) There are numbers past the eye test that indicate that these plays are more than just a football version of an eephus pitch. I think NFL teams will add it to their arsenal in the coming years. On dropback passes featuring no play action since 2019, under center concepts have a higher success rate (49.3%), net yards per attempt (6.6), and EPA per play (.05) than their shotgun (45.4%, 6.3, 45.4%) and pistol (46.1%, 6.5, .02) compatriots. Advertisement There are tradeoffs for operating under center, most notably with inside pressure and the lack of space (relatively) to the line of scrimmage for the quarterback (which is dangerous against modern interior defensive lineman). But as defenses have become more complex and have better access to opponent scouting and tendency data than ever, offenses have to find ways to keep them on their toes. Indicating clear run or clear pass just by where the quarterback is aligned already puts the offense behind the 8-ball. Sprinkling in a few more old dropbacks will help keep the cue stick in the offense's hands. Third and fourth downs are a whole new ballgame now thanks in part to shorter fields Rule changes can have other effects on the game outside of just the plays they are intended to impact. The NFL's kickoff rule changes, which first moved the ball up to the 25 after touchbacks in 2018 and then turned into the new "dynamic kickoff" implemented last season, had ramifications on other aspects of the sport as well. NFL offenses averaged 62.2 plays per game in 2024. That was the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 and the second-lowest since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions. NFL offenses also averaged 10.7 drives per game in 2024, the lowest league-wide number over the same time period. Why? Well, the ball being spotted further down the field after touchbacks (which will bump even further this season to the 35-yard line following another rule change) means, just by sheer math, less yards offenses have to gain to score on a given drive. NFL teams are also going for it on fourth down more than ever, and plays per drive has gone up as well. Advertisement The NFL is so situational and now that the math has changed, offenses are also adjusting how they go about situations like third and fourth down. Teams are not only going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at it, too. NFL offenses converted 56.4% of their fourth down attempts last season, the highest league-wide conversion rate since at least 2002. They are treating third down differently, too. Particularly third-and-long situations, commonly defined as third down and seven or more yards to go. Three of the four worst league-wide conversion rates on third-and-long have happened since 2022, the same time that fourth down aggression has become more normalized. Offenses are realizing that third down no longer requires an all-or-nothing play call with a long-developing dropback pass or a shrug of the shoulder white flag screen or draw play that has a fanbase calling for their offensive coordinator's job. Instead, fourth down aggression has opened the playbook for offenses on third down. Screens are now an easy button that can put you in strike range on fourth down. Checkdowns are no longer groan-worthy, but instead a viable option that can put the offense in a better position for the next down. NFL offenses are even running the ball more frequently on third-and-long now to catch exotic, blitz-happy defenses by surprise and out of position; 10.7% of third-and-longs in 2024 featured a designed run play, the highest league-wide rate the NFL has seen since 2009, when two-high coverages and the Ravens/Rex Ryan's blitz-happy ways were in vogue. It's not a coincidence that the numbers are more similar to the late 2000s than something five years ago. It was a similar environment back then to what current NFL offenses have to deal with, after a decade of single-high defenses trying to emulate the Legion of Boom. Albeit current offenses have to deal with even more aggressive and dynamic looks and an onslaught of pass rushers on a weekly basis. Advertisement NFL defenses are getting even better and better at disguising and providing window dressing on their defensive looks. And this is on top of the depth of pass rushers that every team is seemingly armed with these days. But NFL offenses have started to figure out some things on late downs. While their third-and-long rates have dropped, they have actually racked up strong overall third down conversion rates (fourth-highest since 2002), and NFL offenses recorded a 52.6% conversion rate on third-and-six or less in 2024, which was a top-five conversion rate since 2002. It's a nice indication of the current upswing in play-calling and quarterback play league-wide. (Yes, really, don't let anyone scream at you differently.) Road grating run games taking advantage of lighter defenders Ball carriers are also gaining more yards after contact than ever before, too. Running backs gained an average of 3.02 yards after contact per designed run attempt in 2024. That's the highest since 2006 (the furthest TruMedia's data goes back for this statistic) and the first time that number has ever cracked three yards. While yards before contact still remain relatively low (1.35 yards, fourth-lowest since 2006), which I think is a fair reflection of the talent disparity between NFL offensive lines and defensive fronts, I also think this reflects the tradeoff of size for speed that NFL defenses have undergone over the last five to 10 years. In 2024, the average playing weight among NFL defensive linemen and linebackers that played 200 or more snaps was 271.2 pounds. In 2018, that number was 272.5 pounds. In 2013, it was 276.5 pounds. NFL front seven defenders have become lighter and faster, a reaction to a more pass-heavy NFL that requires better pass rushers and coverage defenders to throw at these talented quarterbacks, pass catchers, and passing games. Defenses are going lighter as defenders' position labels start to merge. A player listed as a safety could line up in the box like a linebacker or in the slot more frequently than they do as a deep coverage player. Sub-230-pound linebackers are becoming more the norm than a curiosity. Edge defenders are asked to align inside on passing downs to attack mismatches against guards (who are becoming more skilled in their own right). But this has opened up avenues for offenses to attack. Namely, just being big up front and road grating jittery defenses with downhill gap runs. Offenses leaning into their more athletic quarterbacks and their running ability has also changed the math of how defenses have to attack, with more plays featuring a read element out of the shotgun changing the angles and forcing defenses to rally and tackle in space and swarm with numbers. NFL offenses have benefitted when defenses don't have good eyes on these plays; the NFL's 8.3% explosive run rate on early downs was the second-highest league-wide number since 2002. Tight ends creating mismatches that trickle down throughout offenses Another way offenses are creating more advantages is by using the classic mismatch staple: tight ends. Just as defensive body types start to merge, pass catchers, blockers and ball carriers are starting to blend as well. Big-bodied wide receivers who can't consistently win on the outside are moving inside as power slots, becoming de facto tight ends inserting as blockers at the point of attack on run plays. (Or as runners — the five highest rates of WR runs league-wide since 2002 have been over the last five seasons.) Advertisement Receiving ability is a prerequisite to be a modern NFL running back. Quarterbacks run more than ever, with scramble rates rising every year (and not slowing down with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix establishing themselves). Athletic tight ends that used to get squeezed off the field because of their lack of blocking ability are starting to find a role again. NFL offensive play-callers are no longer asking receiving-first tight ends to down block an oversized defensive end. They're putting players in motion to build momentum and alter angles of blocks on the defense right at the snap of the ball. RPOs allow tight ends to not even have to block, but instead run a simple route instead. Play-callers are aligning them all over the field. Offenses are moving these guys around and creating two-back and full house backfields with tight ends (and even receivers). It changes up the strength of the run and the gaps the defenders have to account for after the snap of the football. And it gives defenses even more to prepare for out of certain personnel groups. The Ravens have weaponized these looks to open up their run game menu with Lamar Jackson. But other teams are starting to use more formational variety with their skill players on other type of concepts as well. Particularly teams like the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals and Falcons. The Rams appear to be planning on "replacing" Cooper Kupp, who performed many tight end roles in their offense, with rookie Terrance Ferguson (pictured) and the rest of their tight end room. (Photo by David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images) (MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images via Getty Images) And while defenses are now more comfortable using nickel (five defensive backs) and even dime (six defensive backs) to counter multi-tight end looks and hold up against the run, offenses are also starting to find ways to use their natural size advantage. Since there are more safeties in the box and linebackers are no longer 260-pound rhinos steamrolling blockers, tight ends can now be asked to insert and lead block on the second level. That opens up the menu to feature even more two-back-type runs (think fullback-type plays), but from a more spread look. This is on top of the other plays that feature motion at the snap. Advertisement Narratives about how tight ends create mismatches or how there's a new tight end wave are old hat. But there was an increase of multi-tight end personnel groupings in 2024 that matches the eye test: NFL offenses used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at the highest rate since 2013, which is the furthest that TruMedia's data goes back. Offenses used two or more tight ends on 7.6% of plays in 2024, the highest rate since at least 2002. Viable tight ends are always going to be hard to find because of the sheer athletic threshold for playing the position. But the ease of entry as a blocker has lowered, along with the increased athleticism and skills of a younger generation, has opened up roles for these players. There are teams, like the Rams and really the entire NFC West, that are tipping back their personnel usage to featuring more size with tight ends than the three-wide receiver meta of recent years. The Rams are seemingly 'replacing' Cooper Kupp, who often performed many tight end-esque roles in that offense, with their tight end room of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. With more talented tight ends entering the NFL in the recent draft, it'll be fun to see more and more teams inverting the role of their skill players.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NFL is the ultimate 'copycat league.' So what trends will we see in 2025?
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. 'Copycat league' is the common refrain when a trend starts appearing enough in the NFL to invoke the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, whether it be a coaching hire, a personnel preference, a scheme quirk. These things catch on quickly in the ever-evolving and ever-changing world of NFL teams that are constantly studying themselves, their rivals, and their collegiate and high school peers. What takes the league by storm in September will be imitated, dominated, and even improved upon by the time the holiday season rolls around (ask the recent Dolphins offenses). Sometimes there are schemes that have fallen out of favor that have been dusted off, redesigned or distilled and found new ways — or sometimes just the classic ways — to be used. Even as just a change-up to whatever has become the norm. One type of play that I think will start gaining more favor, even if it's just a slightly bigger blip on the radar, is a tried-and-true play that you could say John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt helped invent. That's the straight dropback pass from under center. Throwing the ball without any play action (a play fake to the running back) is one of the main food groups of football concepts. But what was once the staple of this diet, throwing the ball from under center, has instead been substituted with a lean into the pass-centric nature of modern offenses. There's been more shotgun or even pistol as the base set of offenses, which helps create space and read elements in the run game for more athletic quarterbacks and allows them to see more of the field. Under center plays have morphed into a clear signal of either a run play to a back, or play action off faking it. It's removed scissors in the constant game of rock, paper, scissor that offenses and defenses throw at each other. Basing out of shotgun absolutely has benefits in attacking a defense, including certain RPOs and in quick game, along with varying motion quirks you can throw in. But I think the NFL hit its nadir in using straight dropback passing, which was once a Day 1 installation for offensive football. NFL offenses threw the ball from under center on early downs 11,367 times in 2002, over 22 times a game. In 2024 that number was 2,855, or 5.3 times per game. And that's including play action. Without play action, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2023 before having a slight increase this past season. I think we'll see an upswing in usage as teams see the benefits of giving defenses another thing to think about. All while hunting explosive plays on early downs and having some old-school soundness in protection and play design. (The classics are the classics for a reason. Even if they aren't cool at the moment.) The offensive play-callers that are the main practitioners of this ancient art of passing are actually the coaches that were recently labeled as the wunderkinds of the league. The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan led the way with 2.6 under center dropbacks without play action on early downs per game in 2024, averaging over nine yards per play. The Saints under Klint Kubiak (of the same Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree) were in second. Kubiak's 2021 offense, meanwhile, ran more than five per game, and his father Gary's offenses in Minnesota topped the leaderboard since 2019. Other offenses from the same tree rounded out the top five of straight dropback passing in 2024, including the Texans, Vikings and Lions. There are numbers past the eye test that indicate that these plays are more than just a football version of an eephus pitch. I think NFL teams will add it to their arsenal in the coming years. On dropback passes featuring no play action since 2019, under center concepts have a higher success rate (49.3%), net yards per attempt (6.6), and EPA per play (.05) than their shotgun (45.4%, 6.3, 45.4%) and pistol (46.1%, 6.5, .02) compatriots. There are tradeoffs for operating under center, most notably with inside pressure and the lack of space (relatively) to the line of scrimmage for the quarterback (which is dangerous against modern interior defensive lineman). But as defenses have become more complex and have better access to opponent scouting and tendency data than ever, offenses have to find ways to keep them on their toes. Indicating clear run or clear pass just by where the quarterback is aligned already puts the offense behind the 8-ball. Sprinkling in a few more old dropbacks will help keep the cue stick in the offense's hands. Rule changes can have other effects on the game outside of just the plays they are intended to impact. The NFL's kickoff rule changes, which first moved the ball up to the 25 after touchbacks in 2018 and then turned into the new "dynamic kickoff" implemented last season, had ramifications on other aspects of the sport as well. NFL offenses averaged 62.2 plays per game in 2024. That was the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 and the second-lowest since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions. NFL offenses also averaged 10.7 drives per game in 2024, the lowest league-wide number over the same time period. Why? Well, the ball being spotted further down the field after touchbacks (which will bump even further this season to the 35-yard line following another rule change) means, just by sheer math, less yards offenses have to gain to score on a given drive. NFL teams are also going for it on fourth down more than ever, and plays per drive has gone up as well. The NFL is so situational and now that the math has changed, offenses are also adjusting how they go about situations like third and fourth down. Teams are not only going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at it, too. NFL offenses converted 56.4% of their fourth down attempts last season, the highest league-wide conversion rate since at least 2002. They are treating third down differently, too. Particularly third-and-long situations, commonly defined as third down and seven or more yards to go. Three of the four worst league-wide conversion rates on third-and-long have happened since 2022, the same time that fourth down aggression has become more normalized. Offenses are realizing that third down no longer requires an all-or-nothing play call with a long-developing dropback pass or a shrug of the shoulder white flag screen or draw play that has a fanbase calling for their offensive coordinator's job. Instead, fourth down aggression has opened the playbook for offenses on third down. Screens are now an easy button that can put you in strike range on fourth down. Checkdowns are no longer groan-worthy, but instead a viable option that can put the offense in a better position for the next down. NFL offenses are even running the ball more frequently on third-and-long now to catch exotic, blitz-happy defenses by surprise and out of position; 10.7% of third-and-longs in 2024 featured a designed run play, the highest league-wide rate the NFL has seen since 2009, when two-high coverages and the Ravens/Rex Ryan's blitz-happy ways were in vogue. It's not a coincidence that the numbers are more similar to the late 2000s than something five years ago. It was a similar environment back then to what current NFL offenses have to deal with, after a decade of single-high defenses trying to emulate the Legion of Boom. Albeit current offenses have to deal with even more aggressive and dynamic looks and an onslaught of pass rushers on a weekly basis. NFL defenses are getting even better and better at disguising and providing window dressing on their defensive looks. And this is on top of the depth of pass rushers that every team is seemingly armed with these days. But NFL offenses have started to figure out some things on late downs. While their third-and-long rates have dropped, they have actually racked up strong overall third down conversion rates (fourth-highest since 2002), and NFL offenses recorded a 52.6% conversion rate on third-and-six or less in 2024, which was a top-five conversion rate since 2002. It's a nice indication of the current upswing in play-calling and quarterback play league-wide. (Yes, really, don't let anyone scream at you differently.) Ball carriers are also gaining more yards after contact than ever before, too. Running backs gained an average of 3.02 yards after contact per designed run attempt in 2024. That's the highest since 2006 (the furthest TruMedia's data goes back for this statistic) and the first time that number has ever cracked three yards. While yards before contact still remain relatively low (1.35 yards, fourth-lowest since 2006), which I think is a fair reflection of the talent disparity between NFL offensive lines and defensive fronts, I also think this reflects the tradeoff of size for speed that NFL defenses have undergone over the last five to 10 years. In 2024, the average playing weight among NFL defensive linemen and linebackers that played 200 or more snaps was 271.2 pounds. In 2018, that number was 272.5 pounds. In 2013, it was 276.5 pounds. NFL front seven defenders have become lighter and faster, a reaction to a more pass-heavy NFL that requires better pass rushers and coverage defenders to throw at these talented quarterbacks, pass catchers, and passing games. Defenses are going lighter as defenders' position labels start to merge. A player listed as a safety could line up in the box like a linebacker or in the slot more frequently than they do as a deep coverage player. Sub-230-pound linebackers are becoming more the norm than a curiosity. Edge defenders are asked to align inside on passing downs to attack mismatches against guards (who are becoming more skilled in their own right). But this has opened up avenues for offenses to attack. Namely, just being big up front and road grating jittery defenses with downhill gap runs. Offenses leaning into their more athletic quarterbacks and their running ability has also changed the math of how defenses have to attack, with more plays featuring a read element out of the shotgun changing the angles and forcing defenses to rally and tackle in space and swarm with numbers. NFL offenses have benefitted when defenses don't have good eyes on these plays; the NFL's 8.3% explosive run rate on early downs was the second-highest league-wide number since 2002. Another way offenses are creating more advantages is by using the classic mismatch staple: tight ends. Just as defensive body types start to merge, pass catchers, blockers and ball carriers are starting to blend as well. Big-bodied wide receivers who can't consistently win on the outside are moving inside as power slots, becoming de facto tight ends inserting as blockers at the point of attack on run plays. (Or as runners — the five highest rates of WR runs league-wide since 2002 have been over the last five seasons.) Receiving ability is a prerequisite to be a modern NFL running back. Quarterbacks run more than ever, with scramble rates rising every year (and not slowing down with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix establishing themselves). Athletic tight ends that used to get squeezed off the field because of their lack of blocking ability are starting to find a role again. NFL offensive play-callers are no longer asking receiving-first tight ends to down block an oversized defensive end. They're putting players in motion to build momentum and alter angles of blocks on the defense right at the snap of the ball. RPOs allow tight ends to not even have to block, but instead run a simple route instead. Play-callers are aligning them all over the field. Offenses are moving these guys around and creating two-back and full house backfields with tight ends (and even receivers). It changes up the strength of the run and the gaps the defenders have to account for after the snap of the football. And it gives defenses even more to prepare for out of certain personnel groups. The Ravens have weaponized these looks to open up their run game menu with Lamar Jackson. But other teams are starting to use more formational variety with their skill players on other type of concepts as well. Particularly teams like the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals and Falcons. And while defenses are now more comfortable using nickel (five defensive backs) and even dime (six defensive backs) to counter multi-tight end looks and hold up against the run, offenses are also starting to find ways to use their natural size advantage. Since there are more safeties in the box and linebackers are no longer 260-pound rhinos steamrolling blockers, tight ends can now be asked to insert and lead block on the second level. That opens up the menu to feature even more two-back-type runs (think fullback-type plays), but from a more spread look. This is on top of the other plays that feature motion at the snap. Narratives about how tight ends create mismatches or how there's a new tight end wave are old hat. But there was an increase of multi-tight end personnel groupings in 2024 that matches the eye test: NFL offenses used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at the highest rate since 2013, which is the furthest that TruMedia's data goes back. Offenses used two or more tight ends on 7.6% of plays in 2024, the highest rate since at least 2002. Viable tight ends are always going to be hard to find because of the sheer athletic threshold for playing the position. But the ease of entry as a blocker has lowered, along with the increased athleticism and skills of a younger generation, has opened up roles for these players. There are teams, like the Rams and really the entire NFC West, that are tipping back their personnel usage to featuring more size with tight ends than the three-wide receiver meta of recent years. The Rams are seemingly 'replacing' Cooper Kupp, who often performed many tight end-esque roles in that offense, with their tight end room of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. With more talented tight ends entering the NFL in the recent draft, it'll be fun to see more and more teams inverting the role of their skill players.
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NFL is the ultimate 'copycat league.' So what trends will we see in 2025?
All data via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. 'Copycat league' is the common refrain when a trend starts appearing enough in the NFL to invoke the Baader–Meinhof phenomenon, whether it be a coaching hire, a personnel preference, a scheme quirk. These things catch on quickly in the ever-evolving and ever-changing world of NFL teams that are constantly studying themselves, their rivals, and their collegiate and high school peers. What takes the league by storm in September will be imitated, dominated, and even improved upon by the time the holiday season rolls around (ask the recent Dolphins offenses). Sometimes there are schemes that have fallen out of favor that have been dusted off, redesigned or distilled and found new ways — or sometimes just the classic ways — to be used. Even as just a change-up to whatever has become the norm. One type of play that I think will start gaining more favor, even if it's just a slightly bigger blip on the radar, is a tried-and-true play that you could say John Heisman and Teddy Roosevelt helped invent. That's the straight dropback pass from under center. Throwing the ball without any play action (a play fake to the running back) is one of the main food groups of football concepts. But what was once the staple of this diet, throwing the ball from under center, has instead been substituted with a lean into the pass-centric nature of modern offenses. There's been more shotgun or even pistol as the base set of offenses, which helps create space and read elements in the run game for more athletic quarterbacks and allows them to see more of the field. Under center plays have morphed into a clear signal of either a run play to a back, or play action off faking it. It's removed scissors in the constant game of rock, paper, scissor that offenses and defenses throw at each other. Basing out of shotgun absolutely has benefits in attacking a defense, including certain RPOs and in quick game, along with varying motion quirks you can throw in. But I think the NFL hit its nadir in using straight dropback passing, which was once a Day 1 installation for offensive football. NFL offenses threw the ball from under center on early downs 11,367 times in 2002, over 22 times a game. In 2024 that number was 2,855, or 5.3 times per game. And that's including play action. Without play action, that number dropped to 1.1 in 2023 before having a slight increase this past season. I think we'll see an upswing in usage as teams see the benefits of giving defenses another thing to think about. All while hunting explosive plays on early downs and having some old-school soundness in protection and play design. (The classics are the classics for a reason. Even if they aren't cool at the moment.) The offensive play-callers that are the main practitioners of this ancient art of passing are actually the coaches that were recently labeled as the wunderkinds of the league. The 49ers under Kyle Shanahan led the way with 2.6 under center dropbacks without play action on early downs per game in 2024, averaging over nine yards per play. The Saints under Klint Kubiak (of the same Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree) were in second. Kubiak's 2021 offense, meanwhile, ran more than five per game, and his father Gary's offenses in Minnesota topped the leaderboard since 2019. Other offenses from the same tree rounded out the top five of straight dropback passing in 2024, including the Texans, Vikings and Lions. There are numbers past the eye test that indicate that these plays are more than just a football version of an eephus pitch. I think NFL teams will add it to their arsenal in the coming years. On dropback passes featuring no play action since 2019, under center concepts have a higher success rate (49.3%), net yards per attempt (6.6), and EPA per play (.05) than their shotgun (45.4%, 6.3, 45.4%) and pistol (46.1%, 6.5, .02) compatriots. There are tradeoffs for operating under center, most notably with inside pressure and the lack of space (relatively) to the line of scrimmage for the quarterback (which is dangerous against modern interior defensive lineman). But as defenses have become more complex and have better access to opponent scouting and tendency data than ever, offenses have to find ways to keep them on their toes. Indicating clear run or clear pass just by where the quarterback is aligned already puts the offense behind the 8-ball. Sprinkling in a few more old dropbacks will help keep the cue stick in the offense's hands. Rule changes can have other effects on the game outside of just the plays they are intended to impact. The NFL's kickoff rule changes, which first moved the ball up to the 25 after touchbacks in 2018 and then turned into the new "dynamic kickoff" implemented last season, had ramifications on other aspects of the sport as well. NFL offenses averaged 62.2 plays per game in 2024. That was the lowest league-wide mark since 2008 and the second-lowest since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and eight divisions. NFL offenses also averaged 10.7 drives per game in 2024, the lowest league-wide number over the same time period. Why? Well, the ball being spotted further down the field after touchbacks (which will bump even further this season to the 35-yard line following another rule change) means, just by sheer math, less yards offenses have to gain to score on a given drive. NFL teams are also going for it on fourth down more than ever, and plays per drive has gone up as well. The NFL is so situational and now that the math has changed, offenses are also adjusting how they go about situations like third and fourth down. Teams are not only going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at it, too. NFL offenses converted 56.4% of their fourth down attempts last season, the highest league-wide conversion rate since at least 2002. They are treating third down differently, too. Particularly third-and-long situations, commonly defined as third down and seven or more yards to go. Three of the four worst league-wide conversion rates on third-and-long have happened since 2022, the same time that fourth down aggression has become more normalized. Offenses are realizing that third down no longer requires an all-or-nothing play call with a long-developing dropback pass or a shrug of the shoulder white flag screen or draw play that has a fanbase calling for their offensive coordinator's job. Instead, fourth down aggression has opened the playbook for offenses on third down. Screens are now an easy button that can put you in strike range on fourth down. Checkdowns are no longer groan-worthy, but instead a viable option that can put the offense in a better position for the next down. NFL offenses are even running the ball more frequently on third-and-long now to catch exotic, blitz-happy defenses by surprise and out of position; 10.7% of third-and-longs in 2024 featured a designed run play, the highest league-wide rate the NFL has seen since 2009, when two-high coverages and the Ravens/Rex Ryan's blitz-happy ways were in vogue. It's not a coincidence that the numbers are more similar to the late 2000s than something five years ago. It was a similar environment back then to what current NFL offenses have to deal with, after a decade of single-high defenses trying to emulate the Legion of Boom. Albeit current offenses have to deal with even more aggressive and dynamic looks and an onslaught of pass rushers on a weekly basis. NFL defenses are getting even better and better at disguising and providing window dressing on their defensive looks. And this is on top of the depth of pass rushers that every team is seemingly armed with these days. But NFL offenses have started to figure out some things on late downs. While their third-and-long rates have dropped, they have actually racked up strong overall third down conversion rates (fourth-highest since 2002), and NFL offenses recorded a 52.6% conversion rate on third-and-six or less in 2024, which was a top-five conversion rate since 2002. It's a nice indication of the current upswing in play-calling and quarterback play league-wide. (Yes, really, don't let anyone scream at you differently.) Ball carriers are also gaining more yards after contact than ever before, too. Running backs gained an average of 3.02 yards after contact per designed run attempt in 2024. That's the highest since 2006 (the furthest TruMedia's data goes back for this statistic) and the first time that number has ever cracked three yards. While yards before contact still remain relatively low (1.35 yards, fourth-lowest since 2006), which I think is a fair reflection of the talent disparity between NFL offensive lines and defensive fronts, I also think this reflects the tradeoff of size for speed that NFL defenses have undergone over the last five to 10 years. In 2024, the average playing weight among NFL defensive linemen and linebackers that played 200 or more snaps was 271.2 pounds. In 2018, that number was 272.5 pounds. In 2013, it was 276.5 pounds. NFL front seven defenders have become lighter and faster, a reaction to a more pass-heavy NFL that requires better pass rushers and coverage defenders to throw at these talented quarterbacks, pass catchers, and passing games. Defenses are going lighter as defenders' position labels start to merge. A player listed as a safety could line up in the box like a linebacker or in the slot more frequently than they do as a deep coverage player. Sub-230-pound linebackers are becoming more the norm than a curiosity. Edge defenders are asked to align inside on passing downs to attack mismatches against guards (who are becoming more skilled in their own right). But this has opened up avenues for offenses to attack. Namely, just being big up front and road grating jittery defenses with downhill gap runs. Offenses leaning into their more athletic quarterbacks and their running ability has also changed the math of how defenses have to attack, with more plays featuring a read element out of the shotgun changing the angles and forcing defenses to rally and tackle in space and swarm with numbers. NFL offenses have benefitted when defenses don't have good eyes on these plays; the NFL's 8.3% explosive run rate on early downs was the second-highest league-wide number since 2002. Another way offenses are creating more advantages is by using the classic mismatch staple: tight ends. Just as defensive body types start to merge, pass catchers, blockers and ball carriers are starting to blend as well. Big-bodied wide receivers who can't consistently win on the outside are moving inside as power slots, becoming de facto tight ends inserting as blockers at the point of attack on run plays. (Or as runners — the five highest rates of WR runs league-wide since 2002 have been over the last five seasons.) Receiving ability is a prerequisite to be a modern NFL running back. Quarterbacks run more than ever, with scramble rates rising every year (and not slowing down with the likes of Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix establishing themselves). Athletic tight ends that used to get squeezed off the field because of their lack of blocking ability are starting to find a role again. NFL offensive play-callers are no longer asking receiving-first tight ends to down block an oversized defensive end. They're putting players in motion to build momentum and alter angles of blocks on the defense right at the snap of the ball. RPOs allow tight ends to not even have to block, but instead run a simple route instead. Play-callers are aligning them all over the field. Offenses are moving these guys around and creating two-back and full house backfields with tight ends (and even receivers). It changes up the strength of the run and the gaps the defenders have to account for after the snap of the football. And it gives defenses even more to prepare for out of certain personnel groups. The Ravens have weaponized these looks to open up their run game menu with Lamar Jackson. But other teams are starting to use more formational variety with their skill players on other type of concepts as well. Particularly teams like the Bengals, Packers, Cardinals and Falcons. And while defenses are now more comfortable using nickel (five defensive backs) and even dime (six defensive backs) to counter multi-tight end looks and hold up against the run, offenses are also starting to find ways to use their natural size advantage. Since there are more safeties in the box and linebackers are no longer 260-pound rhinos steamrolling blockers, tight ends can now be asked to insert and lead block on the second level. That opens up the menu to feature even more two-back-type runs (think fullback-type plays), but from a more spread look. This is on top of the other plays that feature motion at the snap. Narratives about how tight ends create mismatches or how there's a new tight end wave are old hat. But there was an increase of multi-tight end personnel groupings in 2024 that matches the eye test: NFL offenses used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) at the highest rate since 2013, which is the furthest that TruMedia's data goes back. Offenses used two or more tight ends on 7.6% of plays in 2024, the highest rate since at least 2002. Viable tight ends are always going to be hard to find because of the sheer athletic threshold for playing the position. But the ease of entry as a blocker has lowered, along with the increased athleticism and skills of a younger generation, has opened up roles for these players. There are teams, like the Rams and really the entire NFC West, that are tipping back their personnel usage to featuring more size with tight ends than the three-wide receiver meta of recent years. The Rams are seemingly 'replacing' Cooper Kupp, who often performed many tight end-esque roles in that offense, with their tight end room of Tyler Higbee, Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen. With more talented tight ends entering the NFL in the recent draft, it'll be fun to see more and more teams inverting the role of their skill players.
New York Times
05-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
College football's offensive explosion is on pause, but defenses aren't claiming victory yet
The South Carolina defense was playing well. At an elite level, actually, Clayton White thought. And like any good defensive coordinator, White checks his unit's stats every week, so as last season went on he assumed the Gamecocks' national rankings in key categories would reflect it. Only they didn't. For as good as the Gamecocks were doing, others were doing even better. Advertisement 'How are we not top five (in run defense) yet?' White remembers saying. 'I literally said, This is crazy. This is a defensive year.' It was indeed. The offensive takeover of college football stalled in 2024. Points and yards have trended down, especially at the top: Per TruMedia, the teams in last season's final AP top five (Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, Penn State) averaged the fewest points per game (34.6) by the final top five since 2006. And the average yards for the top five teams (426.4) was the lowest since 2009. 'The defensive coordinators are getting so good, and the talent is getting so good,' said Jack Kiser, a linebacker and captain on Notre Dame's defense last year. 'So when you can put those two things together it gets pretty special. We showed that with our defense. But across college football, Ohio State's defense was amazing and Penn State's. It's getting harder to score points, and I think that's a good thing.' The past decade in college football was marked by an offensive explosion, with LSU, Alabama and Georgia all modernizing their offenses, adopting pass-heavier spread schemes, and winning national championships. Georgia won its first of back-to-back titles with a generationally great defense, but its second title team had a top-five offense. Kirby Smart, the defensive-minded Georgia head coach, even acknowledged at one point that the 'Defense wins championships' axiom no longer held. Then it made a comeback. All four of last year's College Football Playoff semifinalists were in the top 11 in defensive yards per play, a year after only one semifinalist (champion Michigan) was in the top 10. So what happened? Have defensive coordinators finally caught up? Has the offensive revolution hit a wall? Or is it all just, to use a phrase a different way, a matter of time? *Data source: TruMedia Two years ago the NCAA Football Rules Committee installed rules aimed at shortening games, for safety reasons and to help more games fit into their television broadcast windows. The clock no longer stopped on every first down, for instance. The natural results: fewer plays, fewer drives and fewer chances to score. Advertisement Nationwide, last season saw the fewest plays per game and fewest drives per game since 2004, per TruMedia. The final AP top-five teams averaged the fewest offensive plays per game (65.9) of any top five since 2006 (64.1). They also had the fewest offensive drives per game (11.3) in at least 20 years, as far back as drive-level data is available. Duke coach Manny Diaz, a longtime defensive coordinator in several conferences, had the ACC's third-ranked defense in yards per play this year, and that was despite being the only team to play both Ole Miss and Miami, the nation's top two offenses. But Diaz isn't looking at the defensive trend as some 'huzzah' moment. He thinks it's mainly about the clock rules. 'The easy answer is the game has slowed down, the clock rules have limited snaps,' Diaz said. 'Just to use a baseball reference, we're not playing as many innings as we used to. So that would stand to reason that yards are down.' But the clock isn't the only change in the sport that may be helping defensive numbers. A dormant feature started returning to college football last year: the huddle. Ohio State huddled more on the way to winning the national title, in part to cut down on the number of snaps per game in anticipation of a longer season, coach Ryan Day said. The move also fostered unity on an offense with a transfer quarterback in Will Howard. 'It was a little bit of a part that we felt gave us a little bit of an edge. We broke the huddle together,' Day said in January. 'It's almost like going back in time, but it's sort of a new thing, really.' Ohio State wasn't alone. Per TruMedia, those top-five teams went no-huddle in 29.9 plays per game last season, about seven fewer than the top-five teams had in any other season since 2014. That was enough for seven fewer plays in their games, on average, than in 2023. Contenders' offenses were playing more deliberately, making more checks at the line, to get more transient rosters through a longer season. That all makes sense — but does it not give enough credit to the defenses? On one hand, Diaz is skeptical of the defensive renaissance: 'I would definitely not say the game has gone to a defensive game and the ball is in our court or whatever.' On the other, Diaz acknowledged some indicators of improvement. One of the goals his staff sets is to finish under 5.0 yards per play allowed, which would normally get them in the top 25 of FBS defensive rankings. The Blue Devils just missed both marks last year: 5.01, tied for 26th. But the previous year, that would have been 22nd, and two years before that it would have been 18th. Not huge differences, but a difference. Advertisement Diaz pointed to a few adjustments defenses have made. To combat the run-pass option, man coverage is on the rise (it's not a new concept, more teams are just doing it). Some teams are playing more aggressively up front to pressure the quarterback before he has a chance to get off a quick pass. And coaches are getting smarter about substituting to slow down the up-tempo offenses. That includes racing players onto the field immediately after the previous play if the offense isn't substituting, or taking more time to make its counter-sub if the offense does substitute in order to give the defense a breather. Players who recently wrapped their college careers offered up some other general theories. Olawafemi Oladejo, an edge rusher at UCLA last year, pointed to a renewed emphasis on stopping the run. 'If you do that, you have a better chance, automatically,' Oladejo said. '(By doing that) now it's about getting the pass rush on the field to affect the quarterback. It doesn't have to be sacks, just get the quarterback off the spot, cause hurries, stuff like that.' Josaiah Stewart, who played edge on Michigan's last two teams, pointed to defense just being 'more sound.' 'A lot of Cover 2 to stop the long plays down the field,' Stewart said. 'Types of coverages, simulated pressures, disguising coverages a lot more. Giving quarterbacks different looks.' Defenses are benefitting from more familiarity with modern offenses, and the offensive revolution has paused: Many teams' playbooks look similar, and it's been a few years since a novel schematic concept forced DCs to spend a season or more playing catch-up. In the past, defenses had to carve out more days in spring and preseason practices to prepare for the different offensive styles they would face that fall. Now they have time to hone in on the one or two kinds of offenses and more time to hone in on your own fundamentals. 'It does feel like a lot of them are the same,' White said. 'There's some teams that run some oddity offenses, not oddity, but they're not the only one that does that scheme.' Advertisement As offenses became faster, one way defenses might have adjusted was prioritizing speed over size, in recruiting and the transfer portal. But coaches say that's not what happened. If anything, they're looking to get bigger in order to close up passing lanes in the RPO game, rather than just stockpiling speed to survive a game played in space. 'Offenses are still hard to defend,' White said. 'You kind of have to have a big toolbag. You have to have a lot of tools to defend these offenses. Meaning just coverages and things to do up front. And you've got to put a lot on your players.' And that may be the most significant personnel tweak that's happened lately, according to White: The more complicated the defenses are, the faster things are happening because of RPOs, the quicker the players need to think. 'You got to really recruit and coach high-IQ players who can retain information,' White said. 'I think that's a factor. I think that's one of the adjustments.' Another theory for why defenses did better last year: Were the quarterbacks just not as good? There were a record six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, which may have left a void of star power that wasn't filled. Only two went in Round 1 this year, Miami's Cam Ward and Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart, and both of their teams missed the CFP, albeit barely. Those did happen to be the nation's top two offenses. The 12 Playoff teams, meanwhile, included five starting quarterbacks who transferred in for 2024, including both who made the national championship. And while Ohio State's Will Howard and Notre Dame's Riley Leonard were solid quarterbacks, they weren't first-round picks. They were also new to their teams, unlike Stetson Bennett (a fourth-round pick) when he guided Georgia to back-to-back titles. Advertisement The increasing scarcity of multi-year starting quarterbacks may be slightly bringing down the quality of college offenses. Yes, the transfer portal affects every position, but quarterbacks have especially capitalized on the existence of an open market for their services. When the majority of every quarterback class transfers, it has to have an impact on the quality of offense, and thus helps the defense. The numbers don't lie. Defense is on the upswing. But there is no big solve, no schematic kryptonite that defensive coordinators have discovered. It's just that the offensive revolution has stopped — for now — and the defense can take a breath. 'So at least there's a familiarity,' Diaz said. 'I don't know that there's just anything as wild and crazy as what we experienced either in the 2010s with the QBs becoming runners, and then in the 2000s and the 2010s with the RPO game kind of becoming the deal. … 'I'm not saying we're out of (offensive) innovations. There was just a lot of stuff that all came in on the offense. And now I think the slowing of the game and the short end of the game and all that is just, you know, tempered that a little bit.' At least until the next round of offensive innovation. Assuming it happens. For now, defense is back in college football.
New York Times
11-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NWSL players to watch: Key performers for every team in 2025
For a few more days, all 14 NWSL teams will refine their preseason preparations. Every team can credibly dream of reaching the title game a year after the Orlando Pride went from regularly missing the playoffs to winning it all. The rising level of talent in the NWSL means every team has more than one player they can hitch their hopes to heading into the 2025 season. Advertisement This is not necessarily intended to be a guide to each team's most important or impactful player — we're not looking at Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga or Trinity Rodman here — nor is this a speculative guess of which unknown squad members will catch us all by surprise. Instead, the following analysis is a hodgepodge of high-end performers, players looking to bounce back from tough 2024 seasons and invaluable options who often fly under the radar. All are welcome; let's dive in. All data was pulled from TruMedia via StatsPerform (Opta). When a player earns a World Cup roster spot at 18, their careers get judged differently than most of their peers. Thompson struggled at the start of 2024, failing to score before the Olympic break. She broke her scoring slump in the first game back, netting a brace against San Diego Wave to kick off a burst that yielded five goals from five NWSL appearances. Thompson also chipped in with seven assists despite her team missing the postseason. Thompson has been tricky with the ball at her feet since her debut in 2023 but her confidence grew further last year, seeing her take on more responsibility. She attempted nearly twice as many take-ons (86 in 2024 vs 46 as a rookie), had three game-winning assists and one match-winning goal. She returned to the U.S. women's national team after the Olympics and will likely remain in head coach Emma Hayes' plans this year. Interim coach Sam Laity will lead Angel City until at least June, so the squad's holdovers will be invaluable amid change and uncertainty to start the season. Although Thompson only turned 20 years old in November, she's been a regular starter for two seasons and projects to be even more valuable in 2025. With Christen Press and Sydney Leroux continuing to offer help in the attack and veterans' insight off the pitch, Thompson could hit even greater heights in her third season. Advertisement There have been 10 games when a player has notched double-digit shot attempts since 2021. Nine of the 10 were active members of the USWNT. The only exception, and the sole 10-shot firer of 2024, was Kundananji, as Bay FC closed its regular season by cementing a playoff place against the Houston Dash. Signed to a then-world-record transfer fee, the Zambia international had an up-and-down debut NWSL season. Kundananji scored in her debut (also against the Dash), then netted just once more before the Olympics. She finished the year in fine form, however, scoring twice and adding two assists in Bay's final three regular season games to lead the team to the playoffs in their expansion season. Getting a full preseason with the team, Kundananji has forged better relationships with her returning teammates. She can also play free from certain pressures that come with a record transfer, as Naomi Girma now bears that mantle. This has been another trying offseason for Chicago fans. The team made a few major moves in the middle of 2024, but it doesn't entirely explain away a mostly dormant offseason. Question marks also surround the availability of the team's marquee player, Mallory Swanson. While summer signings Ludmila and Julia Grosso will begin their first full seasons at Chicago, the club put Schlegel front and center for its jersey release. This wasn't a choice devoid of merit, either. Schlegel quietly tied Swanson with six non-penalty goals to lead Chicago, while her 13 chances created from open play only trailed Swanson on the squad. It's difficult to see how the Stars could contend if Swanson isn't starting. She led the team with 49 shots (no one else took more than 28) and was again top with 31 chances created (more than double her teammates). All of that was symptomatic of a one-note attack in head coach Lorne Donaldson's first season, but Schlegel, Ludmila and Jenna Bike will be eager to make their impacts in the final third. With her trademark pink headband, Schlegel won't be hard to spot — especially if she keeps bagging goals. Advertisement Lavelle is the USWNT's chief facilitator. Her eye for a clever pass is unparalleled, and the team's chance creation suffers whenever she's missing. At the NWSL level, however, a different side to Lavelle's game emerges: a volume shooter who dribbles to get herself into range. She may need to tap into her international job description in the 2025 season. Gotham said goodbye to its two top run-of-play chance creators this offseason, as Yazmeen Ryan and Delanie Sheehan are off to revive the Dash. Left back Jenna Nighswonger also left for Arsenal in England, leaving the squad with one less capable crosser. Gotham has had another free-wheeling offseason, with other key departures including Lynn Biyendolo and Crystal Dunn. The club replaced Biyendolo with center forward Gabi Portilho, which could leave Lavelle playing closer to midfield than the front of the attack. That would put her in a prime position to pull the strings, and it could help catalyze Gotham's efforts to return to the NWSL Championship final. She just needs to get healthy first after offseason ankle surgery. After the 2022 season, Ordóñez was among the most lauded young players in the league. She excelled as a 20-year-old rookie, scoring 11 goals for the North Carolina Courage and bagging a brace in her international debut with Mexico against Anguilla. Houston pushed hard to bring her into the fold, landing her in a pre-draft trade. While she had a more obvious leading role with her new club, the drop in squad caliber hampered her scoring output. The graphic above compares her goalscoring output to expected goals (xG) across a rolling 900-minute sample. The blue line is the one that changes scorelines, and the annual swan dives in form are an obvious concern. However, she was hardly equipped to get those kinds of shooting looks, as the Dash's chance creation across her two seasons has never met the service she enjoyed with the Courage. With Ryan and Sheehan joining her in Houston, Ordóñez projects to benefit greatly. After scoring just three goals in 2023 and five in 2024, the creative reinforcements could vault her back to double-digit output. Advertisement From the first match at CPKC Stadium, the Current was arguably the league's most watchable team for neutral viewers. The attack whirred from the opening whistle, led by Chawinga. Vanessa DiBernardo put in the best year of her career in midfield. In the season's first quarter, however, Chawinga shared top billing with her strike partner, Bia. The Brazilian forward was a handful in the season's early weeks, tied with Chawinga with four goals in the Current's first five matches. Her form returned to Earth as May and June progressed, and a stress fracture in her foot ruled her out of Brazil's Olympics squad in early July. In the playoffs, with Bia still recovering and Debinha looking less impactful than in past seasons, opponents were happy to pester Chawinga and persistently challenge the Malawian with foul-worthy contact. Having Bia back to her best would give defenders more to worry about in transition and on set plays, and would open up space for Chawinga to wreak more havoc. Six years removed from winning a second straight NWSL title, the Courage's path to title contention is going through the field's central channel. After trading for Ashley Sanchez last winter, the Courage returned to the trade market to bring in USWNT playmaker Jaedyn Shaw from San Diego, offering her a role in a system that caters to the 20-year-old's game. Even with 2023 MVP Kerolin among the departures, North Carolina should again compete in the upper third of the table. Sanchez and Shaw want to get on the ball, willing to roam from side to side and drop into midfield to facilitate. The United States internationals are also happy to shoot from outside the box. This often requires a teammate to do more thankless work running off the ball and dribbling down the flank as the central playmakers find their pockets of space. That job description matches Lussi's style of play. Her expert reading of a game and dribbling help her teams advance upfield. The 30-year-old has the kind of downhill compass that is vital to ease the pressure on Sanchez and Shaw, as it's easier to make a defense backpedal in the less congested wide thirds of the field. Lussi has the potential to set a new career high mark with assists, but her movement should allow her to bag a handful of goals as well. Advertisement Orlando's emergent 2024 had many headliners. Banda was unstoppable and a worthy MVP finalist. Marta cannon-balled into the fountain of youth to help the Pride win its first NWSL title. Seb Hines was a worthy coach of the year, while defender Emily Sams went from an unsung starter to an Olympic Gold medalist. And yet, the midfield was often overlooked when discussing this team's greatest strengths. That's no fault of Angelina's, who was industrious and consistent in the heart of the park. The Jersey City-born midfielder made a defensive impact across the pitch, was a consistent chance-creator and vital line-breaking passer in the team's build-up. The 25-year-old Brazil international has already built a winning track record and will expect a similar high standard for herself and her team alike. Banda and Marta will undoubtedly still fill the highlight reels, but much of what they can do depends on players like Angelina. Among the league's most consistent franchises since debuting, Portland will follow a tumultuous 2024 with even more uncertainty this spring. Christine Sinclair and Becky Sauerbrunn have retired, while the team placed three starters — Morgan Weaver, Marie Müller and Nicole Payne — on the season-ending injury list late in February. As if that wasn't enough change for one offseason, star striker Sophia Wilson announced her pregnancy in early March. That's an overwhelming amount of attacking quality now missing from last year's side. Of the players shown above who helped Portland crash the box, only Canada international Jessie Fleming, United States international Olivia Moultrie and second-year forward Payton Linnehan return. Sam Coffey gives the Thorns arguably the league's best defensive midfielder. Japan international Hina Sugita may also be relied upon heavily, and Deyna Castellanos has arrived after a frustrating year with Bay FC. Still, this figures to be another season with plenty of questions to answer for the Thorns. This season will be Louisville's fifth in the NWSL. For four years running, Louisville has finished ninth in the standings — a feat that's increasingly impressive as the league continues to expand, but a place that has never been enough for a playoff berth. Advertisement The squad has undeniable quality. The midfield looks especially robust, with Savannah DeMelo and Ary Borges pulling the strings. Taylor Flint is among the league's best defensive midfielders. Emma Sears has broken through with the USWNT and is among the league's best players in transition sequences with her considerable speed and dribbling ability. All of those skill sets are great for build-up and chance generation, but thus far, Louisville has often gone begging for a consistent goal scorer. While Kanu featured in a few roles last year, most often as a left-sided attacking midfielder, her shifts at striker may give head coach Bev Yanez her answer at striker. The Nigeria international converted five of the seven shots she placed on goal, while her goalscoring record with Tigres UANL (20 goals in 30 games) shows what she can do. If she can get closer to that return, Louisville may finally finish in a playoff position. Not much went to plan for San Diego in its fourth season. As Alex Morgan played the final season of her illustrious career, the 2023 NWSL Shield winner plummeted to the wrong end of the table. The Wave played under three coaches as Morgan's career and Naomi Girma closed their tenures at the club. The Wave looks to rebound under former Arsenal coach Jonas Eidevall. Adriana Leon is the new projected star striker, but Sheridan represents an invaluable presence in the locker room. Not only is she an international teammate of Leon's, which should help with the forward's adjustment as she returns to the league, but she also has the high-level track record and leadership chops to give Eidevall someone to lean on. She's also still among the world's best goalkeepers. Even as San Diego's once-stout defense wobbled in 2024, Sheridan protected her net admirably and performed well above expectations in the position. The 29-year-old is now the undisputed most important player at the Wave, and she's certainly a worthy bestower of that honor. Huitema broke through early, debuting internationally as a 15-year-old and making its 2019 World Cup squad despite having only just turned 18. The hype machine did its thing and projected her as Canada's answer up top, but to date, she hasn't put up the goal scoring numbers that typified her predecessor, Sinclair. Huitema has scored 23 goals in her 88 caps for Canada, but she's scored just 10 times for Seattle across her first three seasons. Huitema has expert movement in the final third and consistently gets into good scoring areas, with her average shot distance since joining the Reign ranging from 11.2 yards to 12.8 yards. Her shot placement is the concern. Most great strikers spray the ball to any area of the goalmouth, high and low, to keep a goalkeeper guessing. Last year, Huitema did the opposite, placing 79% of her shots on target in the exact spot — a place typically occupied by a rest goalkeeper. With Biyendolo joining Seattle this winter, it could afford Huitema more space to set up her shots. If so, it could lead to the kind of goal return that many expected from the Canada international when she first broke out. Advertisement Tanaka could hardly have started 2025 in finer form. The Royal scored four goals in Japan's first two games of the SheBelieves Cup to tie Swanson's 2023 record for the three-game tournament. She started in Japan's 2-1 victory to capture the team's first SheBelieves trophy. The forward made her NWSL debut midway through the 2024 season, joining Utah in July. Although she managed to score just once, it was the second time she had played outside of Japan. With an offseason to acclimate, she should also have a clearer role under head coach Jimmy Coenraets. Both Tanaka and fellow SheBelieves star Ally Sentnor love a shot from deep, but Tanaka projects to be more willing to play in a more advanced role as a striker. Her deftness on the ball and quick decision-making will make her an exceptional focal point for the Royals in 2025. While Croix Bethune was a no-brainer to win rookie of the year, she was far from the only first-year player to carry the Spirit to the NWSL championship final. Many were surprised to see Hershfelt among Hayes' alternates for the 2024 Olympics, but the selection only clued more of us in on how impactful the midfielder already was for her club. Drafted out of Clemson, Hershfelt was selected using the pick that Washington obtained when they traded Sanchez. In her first professional season, Hershfelt played with tenacity and confidence, getting stuck in across the pitch while playing with positional awareness that rarely left Washington without cover. Hershfelt was also an aerial threat on set pieces, most memorably saving the Spirit's season with a late equalizer in the semifinal against Gotham. The mix of high-octane defending and threat to head home goals begs comparisons to Julie Ertz, and the 23-year-old would be a worthy regular alternative to Coffey for the USWNT.
