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Is Tyreek Hill a top fantasy football rebound candidate, or has age caught up with him?
Is Tyreek Hill a top fantasy football rebound candidate, or has age caught up with him?

New York Times

time2 hours ago

  • Sport
  • New York Times

Is Tyreek Hill a top fantasy football rebound candidate, or has age caught up with him?

Tyreek Hill was often taken second overall in 2024 fantasy drafts as the second wide receiver, and he had an ADP the final week of draft season just below CeeDee Lamb at No. 3 overall. Fast forward to 2025, and the 31-year-old is the 14th wideout off the board, generally, falling well into the third round. Advertisement And many think that's still too high. Is Hill's current ADP tethered more to his performance through 2023 or to his disappointing 2024? And was his 2024 season even that disappointing? Assessing Hill raises interesting questions about aging curves and allows us to test that supposition with relatively new data from NGS, the NFL's radar tracking system. We can now see whether Hill is slowing down and to what extent. Bottom line: When I look at everything, I'm far more bullish than the market on Hill in my rankings. He enters draft season as my WR10, and I would happily grab him in the third round. Let's look more closely at Hill's 2024. He had over 200 PPR points, the 31st-best PPR season for a 30-year-old wide receiver this century. With Tua Tagovailoa on the field, his 17-game averages were even better: 90-1,100-10, 260 PPR points. Those points would have been WR9, just below Lamb. Per game, however, that would have ranked 16th among WRs who played at least half the season. Either way, not a draft disaster. Tua was last in the league in yards per attempt last year, just a tick below Patrick Mahomes (Hill's former QB). And his unwillingness to throw downfield is a red flag against Hill, according to his 2025 detractors. But we're overstating the lack of downfield passing to Hill, presumably to protect Tua (concussions) from being hit. In 2024, Hill's rate of 20-plus-yard targets was 16% compared to 20% in 2023. That's a decline, but hardly a reason to drop Hill so far down the WR queue. He's also a year older. No one worried about age 30. But is age 31 appreciably worse? At some point, one year will be a tipping point. But what is the evidence of WR decline at age 31 vs. age 30? At the macro level, there is very little. This century, 38 WRs have had 200-plus fantasy points at age 30. At age 31, that drops to 32 (a 16% decline). But the NFL's injury data analyzer, IQVIA, found injury rates are pretty stable at age 31. Of course, this just accounts for missed time and not age-based performance declines. Advertisement Hill's wrist injury, which hampered him all season, is not expected to be an issue in 2025 after two surgeries involving pins in the joint. Hill now says season-ending surgery was recommended early in the 2024 campaign, but he chose to play through it. He also reportedly has dropped 14 pounds in an effort to maintain his elite speed and increase his endurance. So let's conclude there is no extra significant injury risk at age 31 vs. age 30. There remains a chance Hill could be among the 16% of productive 30-year-old wideouts that age out of elite performance at age 31. And you could argue, of course, that Hill already showed signs of slowing down at age 30 compared to age 29. But here is where we can use the NFL's radar technology to search for quantifiable evidence of that theory. Here are Hill's max radar times according to the NFL's radar tracking system for the past three seasons: That 21.50 mph speed at age 30 is the eighth fastest since 2022, according to TruMedia. The only offensive skill players of fantasy note on that age-30 list were Raheem Mostert (2022) and Derrick Henry (2024), who were 21.74 and 21.72 mph, respectively. (That Henry had a faster max speed than Hill last year is wild.) Mostert followed that up at age 31 with a nearly identical max speed of 21.62 mph en route to 1,012 rushing yards and 18 rushing TDs. Furthermore, in late June, Hill proved he's unquestionably one of the fastest humans by running the 100 meters in 10.1 seconds at the ATX Sprint Classic, finishing fourth out of seven track stars and just one-tenth of a second behind first place. Even if you still believe in Hill, there is the argument that Tua is just too big a question mark with his concussion history. If the quarterback is sidelined again, the current Dolphins backup is Zach Wilson. (I'm probably alone in thinking Wilson airing bombs to Hill could be fantasy fun.) Advertisement Other metrics beyond speed show a player's age decline. He broke just one tackle on 81 catches in 2024 after breaking 12 on 119 in 2023. That's concerning, no doubt. But it's a small sample, and how much did his serious wrist injury play a part in this? I'd argue it was a very significant contributor. And what if Tua plays 17 games again like he did in 2023, when he threw for 4,624 yards (a WR-leading 1,799 to Hill on 171 targets)? And what if Hill's wrist injury, along with the six-game absence of his QB, caused Hill's collapse and he remains as explosive as ever? Then couldn't Hill join the list of 300-point PPR wide receivers at age 31 this century — Brandon Marshall (339.2 in 2015), Muhsin Muhammad (329 in 2004), Rod Smith (318 in 2001) and Jordy Nelson (304.7 in 2016)? Of course, he could. None of those older fantasy football stars were even remotely on the same level at the position as Hill, a future inner-circle Hall of Famer and one of the top wideouts in NFL history. (Photo of Tyreek Hill: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

Cardinal Newman's Zamarii Sanders embraces Tyreek Hill race banter: 'It's supposed to happen'
Cardinal Newman's Zamarii Sanders embraces Tyreek Hill race banter: 'It's supposed to happen'

Yahoo

time9 hours ago

  • Sport
  • Yahoo

Cardinal Newman's Zamarii Sanders embraces Tyreek Hill race banter: 'It's supposed to happen'

WEST PALM BEACH — Zamarii Sanders has had an offseason to remember and that's not just because his football team is among the best in the state of Florida. The Cardinal Newman receiver made headlines for a proposed race between him and Miami Dolphins superstar receiver Tyreek Hill. "After I won nationals at New Balance, I started getting more recognition," Sanders said. "I called him out, but he didn't see it. But he has connections that reached out to him to race me, and they put the FaceTime call together." 305 Sports, a sports promotion and marketing social media account, originally put forth the idea for the race by connecting the speedy pair during a summer workout. "I don't care what grade you're in," Hill responded to the idea of a race with Sanders. "High school, middle school ... If we're talking about that chicken, you're going to lose." More: Tyreek Hill vs. Zamarii Sanders? 5 things you may have missed from Palm Beach summer football Sanders' notoriety has skyrocketed, but not just because of the offseason banter with the Miami receiver. The Newman senior has redefined what it means to be fast at the high-school level and beyond. He's been called "They're Fastest Man in Florida" following six state championships in such sprint events as the 100-meter, 200-meter and 4x100 relay. Sweeping the 100- and 200-meter events at the New Balance Outdoor Nationals was the cherry on top, propelling him into even more national conversations. Not a bad formula for connecting with a sports role-model. Many have speculated whether the proposed race between Sanders and Hill could actually happen, but Sanders believes it will. "I've looked up to Tyreek Hill since I was little," Sanders said. "He was always fast, and I know I'm fast. To actually talk to him one on one about racing him was a blessing. I'm glad I'm going to get the opportunity to race him." "It's supposed to happen," Sanders added when asked if he felt the race would be scheduled. "It's supposed to happen. I don't know when, but it's supposed to happen, eventually." So, who's going to win? Sanders was nearly as quick with his answer as he is on the asphalt and field. "Me, obviously," Sanders said. Alex Peterman is a high school sports reporter for The Palm Beach Post. He can be reached at apeterman@ This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Zamarii Sanders says race with Tyreek Hill still 'supposed to happen'

Could Jaylen Waddle be Miami's top fantasy receiver?
Could Jaylen Waddle be Miami's top fantasy receiver?

Yahoo

time17 hours ago

  • Sport
  • Yahoo

Could Jaylen Waddle be Miami's top fantasy receiver?

Yahoo Fantasy analysts Matt Harmon and Justin Boone explain why the Dolphins receiver could outperform teammate Tyreek Hill for fantasy purposes this season. Hear the full conversation on the 'Yahoo Fantasy Forecast' podcast - and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. View more Video Transcript Let's think of the wide receiver position. Uh, give me one of your favorite wide receivers values in this draft. Man, I really like Jaylen Waddle. Uh, he went at 611, the end of the 6th round. Um, it's about a round below his dynasty ADP. Like, am I the only one that sees a path to him being a very valuable fantasy asset, uh, you know, he's only 26. He turns 27 during the season. Before last year though, and we have a bunch of last year, he missed some games. Tua obviously missed time, and the offense wasn't anything like itself when Tua was out. Before that, Waddle had 3 straight 1000-yard seasons. I think we all looked at him quite differently. So was it his fault last year that there were some injuries to the quarterback position? I'm not going to blame him. Before that, those seasons, he was wide receiver 21, wide receiver 13, and wide receiver 15. It was the first 3 years of his career, a very, very productive fantasy player. You know, I still think Tyreek Hill has something left in the tank. I think you could look at last season for him too and say, you know, OK, there were some, you know, mitigating factors around him that brought down some of his production and some of his metrics, but there are some reasons to think that a decline might be coming for Tyreek Hill, and if it does, Waddle could emerge as the number one receiver on this team. Uh, like none of these Miami Dolphins had good, um, you know, good route stuff last year. It certainly wasn't as efficient because the offense just wasn't as efficient. Tua missed time, as you mentioned, a lot of casts. But nevertheless, like Tyreek Hill dropped off from a 75.8% success rate versus man in 2023 to 67.3%, a career low, a huge drop. I personally think. And again, that's like isolating all the other variables. I was just focusing on Tyreek Hill. I think the decline has already begun for him, and I just wonder for Mike McDaniel. Who are you gonna lean into more? The, like, 31-year-old disgruntled wide receiver who wanted to quit the team in week 8, in week 18 last year, or like this guy that you signed to a mega contract extension a couple years ago, who I think can do a lot of the same things. Close

Miami Dolphins training camp Day 3: De'Von Achane's speed still makes him major threat
Miami Dolphins training camp Day 3: De'Von Achane's speed still makes him major threat

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Sport
  • Yahoo

Miami Dolphins training camp Day 3: De'Von Achane's speed still makes him major threat

MIAMI GARDENS -- It's Day 3 of Miami Dolphins training camp. Noteworthy: Notable plays THE YOUNGSTER: Dolphins says rookie guard Jonah Savaiianea 'made of the right stuff' Tua Tagovailoa opened 11-on-11 drills with a nice connection to Jaylen Waddle over the middle in traffic. De'Von Achane then cut outside to gain running space around the edge. LB Tyrel Dodson had deep penetration to possibly blow up a running play. LB Willie Gay Jr. broke up a Zach Wilson pass, missing what would have been a walk-on pick-6 by inches. The interior offensive line did a nice job opening a hole for Achane up the middle. Tagovailoa capitalized on what appeared to be a missed assignment to hit Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Tagovailoa's pass to Malik Washington was broken up by CB Storm Duck. The Dolphins made it more than a dozen snaps before getting nailed with a pre-snap penalty for illegal procedure. In a scene the Dolphins hope gets replayed all fall, Tagovailoa hit Tyreek Hill, who had slipped beyond the defense. Rookie QB Quinn Ewers, with one of his better throws, hit WR Theo Wease Jr. despite tight coverage. RB Ollie Gordon fumbled, resulting in a scrum. S John Saunders Jr. got into a brief dust-up in the process. LB Grayson Murphy drew a holding call as Tagovailoa looked for a receiver. Wilson dropped a rainbow into Dee Eskridge's arms. Waddle caught a ball from Tagovailoa, then juked past Kohou. Achane continued to show quickness and was effective as both a runner and receiver. (Shocking.) DB Elijah Campbell broke up a Wilson pass. Ewers got better as the workout went on, including a connection with Eskridge. This and that ... Urgent orange jersey news: CB Kader Kohou had the honors this time. Not spotted: C Aaron Brewer, T Bayron Matos, S Dante Trader Jr. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Miami Dolphins training camp Day 3: De'Von Achane shows that speed

Miami Dolphins training camp, Day 4 Saturday practice report: Minkah Fitzpatrick flashes
Miami Dolphins training camp, Day 4 Saturday practice report: Minkah Fitzpatrick flashes

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Sport
  • Yahoo

Miami Dolphins training camp, Day 4 Saturday practice report: Minkah Fitzpatrick flashes

MIAMI GARDENS — The first Miami Dolphins training camp practice open to fans at Baptist Health Training Complex was on Saturday, July 26. Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and some rookies were among the players encouraging fans to get pumped up at the start of practice. New Dolphins CB Jack Jones - a starter for the Raiders last season - was on the field, wearing number 23. Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will be represented by super agent and South Florida-based Drew Rosenhaus, a league source said. Miami Dolphins training camp practice 4 observations AJ Henning hauled in a long pass from Tua Tagovailoa. Kader Kohou leaves with apparent Dolphins injury Cornerback Kader Kohou was seen by trainers after limping off early in practice. He left the field for further evaluation. He was injured covering Tyreek Hill. New cornerback Jack Jones had a pass breakup. De'Von Achane has the orange practice jersey, given to the top player from the previous practice. Tua Tagovailoa had an apparent miscommunication with Tyreek Hill on a passing play. Alexander Mattison powered through the middle for a long run. Miami spent a good deal of time working on the run game. Tyreek Hill energized by presence of Dolphins fans Tyreek Hill appeared to be energized by the presence of fans. Zach Wilson showed zip on a good connection with rookie Andrew Armstrong. Jordyn Brooks made a few plays in run support. Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepts Zach Wilson Minkah Fitzpatrick had an interception on a long ball from Zach Wilson. The pass was intended for Tahj Washington. Quinn Ewers connected with Tarik Black. Ewers continues to show progress. Rookie Jason Marshall had an interception of Quinn Ewers. Ian "Big E" Berger was the recipient of the first Dolphins fan orange jersey of the day. Tua Tagovailoa hit Tyreek Hill on a 60-yard bomb near the end of practice. Dolphins discipline: Miami players are running post-practice training camp sprints Zero to hero? Dolphins' Zach Wilson explains why he chose jersey zero Dolphins 53-man roster projection: After one week of training camp Joe Schad is a journalist covering the Miami Dolphins and the NFL at The Palm Beach Post. You can reach him at jschad@ and follow him on Instagram and on X @schadjoe. Sign up for Joe's free weekly Dolphins Pulse Newsletter. Help support our work by subscribing today. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Miami Dolphins training camp practice report: Day 4; Kader Kohou hurt

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