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Malaysian Reserve
2 days ago
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Ringgit continues to retreat against greenback on profit-taking after recent gains
KUALA LUMPUR — The ringgit continued its retreat against the US dollar on profit-taking after recent gains to close lower on Friday. At 6 pm, the local note eased to 4.2420/2480 against the greenback from Thursday's close of 4.2340/2385. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have also affected market sentiment, amid growing expectations for an interest rate cut. He noted that Fed officials remained divided on the timing and necessity for such a move. 'Some believe inflation could remain persistent, justifying the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Others, however, feel that a rate cut should happen sooner to stabilise growth momentum,' he told Bernama. Mohd Afzanizam also pointed out that the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, scheduled for next Tuesday, is likely to intensify the debate among Fed members over the direction of interest rates. 'The consensus estimates have pegged the inflation rate at 2.8 per cent, which is higher than 2.7 per cent in the prior month. As such, we will continue to see debate among Fed members on the direction of interest rates,' he said. At the close, the ringgit ended mostly higher against major currencies. It edged up against the yen to 2.8720/8763 from 2.8732/8765 at the close on Thursday, and improved against the euro to 4.9381/9451 from 4.9411/9463. However, it dropped versus the British pound to 5.7034/7114 from 5.6596/6656. The ringgit trended lower against regional peers. It dropped against the Singapore dollar to 3.3014/3064 from 3.2973/3013, declined against the Thai baht to 13.1173/1419 from 13.0954/1146, and was lower against the Indonesian rupiah at 260.3/260.8 from 259.9/260.3 previously. It slipped against the Philippine peso to 7.43/7.44 from 7.42/7.44. — BERNAMA
The Star
2 days ago
- Business
- The Star
Ringgit continues to retreat against greenback on profit-taking after recent gains
KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit continued its retreat against the US dollar on profit-taking after recent gains to close lower on Friday. At 6 pm, the local note eased to 4.2420/2480 against the greenback from Thursday's close of 4.2340/2385. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have also affected market sentiment, amid growing expectations for an interest rate cut. He noted that Fed officials remained divided on the timing and necessity for such a move. "Some believe inflation could remain persistent, justifying the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Others, however, feel that a rate cut should happen sooner to stabilise growth momentum,' he told Bernama. Mohd Afzanizam also pointed out that the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, scheduled for next Tuesday, is likely to intensify the debate among Fed members over the direction of interest rates. "The consensus estimates have pegged the inflation rate at 2.8 per cent, which is higher than 2.7 per cent in the prior month. As such, we will continue to see debate among Fed members on the direction of interest rates,' he said. At the close, the ringgit ended mostly higher against major currencies. It edged up against the yen to 2.8720/8763 from 2.8732/8765 at the close on Thursday, and improved against the euro to 4.9381/9451 from 4.9411/9463. However, it dropped versus the British pound to 5.7034/7114 from 5.6596/6656. The ringgit trended lower against regional peers. It dropped against the Singapore dollar to 3.3014/3064 from 3.2973/3013, declined against the Thai baht to 13.1173/1419 from 13.0954/1146, and was lower against the Indonesian rupiah at 260.3/260.8 from 259.9/260.3 previously. It slipped against the Philippine peso to 7.43/7.44 from 7.42/7.44. - Bernama
New York Post
31-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
US toy makers are getting slammed by China tariffs — and have dire warnings if the mess isn't fixed soon
US toy makers are getting slammed this summer by President Trump's China tariffs — and some are sounding dire warnings about price hikes, sluggish sales and worse if the chaos isn't resolved soon, The Post has learned. Toy prices nationwide rose nearly 2% in June — their sharpest monthly gain since the height of the post-pandemic inflation surge in April 2021 — as tariffs that briefly surged as high as 145% got passed on to shoppers, according to the US Consumer Price Index. Those price increases aren't translating into higher sales, industry executives say. Advertisement 6 Toy prices nationwide rose nearly 2% in June — their sharpest monthly gain since the height of the post-pandemic inflation surge in April 2021. ALLISON DINNER/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock 'Since the tariffs, we are selling about 10% fewer value-oriented items,' said Jonathan Cathey, chief executive of The Loyal Subjects, a Los Angeles-based toy maker whose assortment ranges from high-dollar collectibles to budget-priced fashion dolls. That's because when the price of a doll, a plush toy or an action figure rises above a certain threshold, value-focused shoppers stop buying altogether, Cathey said. Advertisement Isaac Larian, CEO of MGA Entertainment, said the company's LOL Surprise dolls, which had long typically retailed for $9.99, have lately risen as high as $11.99. 'Toy prices have already gone up big time,' Larian said. 'And that's affecting the sales because the consumer is very stretched right now.' Larian and other toy makers say they are not expecting business will grow this year. This they say, is partly because retailers are not placing big orders as they wait to see themselves how the tariff drama will play out. 6 Isaac Larian, CEO of MGA Entertainment, may not have much to smile about during the holiday shopping season. Getty Images Advertisement That's after toy sales dropped nearly 1% in 2024 to $42 billion following a calamitous 7% decline in 2023, according to Circana, a retail industry research firm. 'Business will be down this year,' Larian warned. 'A lot of retailers are putting orders on hold to see where the tariffs end up.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top US operatives held a two-day meeting in Stockholm with Chinese trade officials that ended Wednesday. 'I believe that we have the makings of a deal,' Bessent said Thursday during an interview on CNBC's 'Squawk Box.' Advertisement 6 Sales of toys in 2024 were down by 1%. ERIK S LESSER/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock 'There's still a few technical details to be worked out on the Chinese side between us. I'm confident that it will be done, but it's not 100% done.' Trump imposed 145% tariff on China imports in April before lowering it to 30% the following month. The White House gave Beijing an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a deal but that could get extended into the fall, Bessent said. While toy makers wait, those that can afford to invest in new manufacturing facilities in other countries are trying to hedge their bets. But the recently announced tariffs for Vietnam and Indonesia, in particular — 20% and 19%, respectively — were higher than many had expected. 'The feeling was tariffs would stay the same rate at 10% or go down – not up,' said Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun, which makes Care Bears, Tonka Trucks and Lincoln Logs. 6 Jay Foreman, who heads up Basic Fun, says the 20% tariff rate for Vietnam was surprisingly high. AP MGA Entertainment's Larian spent two weeks in Indonesia last month touring factories and drawing plans to move a substantial amount of production there from China. Shortly thereafter, President Trump announced the 19% tariff on Indonesia — and Larian put the project on hold. 'Everyone says that Indonesia will be the next frontier' — but the country's future as a consistently viable option for US manufacturers is at least a few years away, Larian said. Advertisement About 10% of what MGA Entertainment makes, including LOL Surprise and Bratz dolls, are made in Vietnam. But the factories there are behind schedule and that means toy companies are paying retailers late fees. Still, pulling up stakes from China, which makes 80% of the world's toys, is impossible for some. 6 Alan Dorfman, founder of Super Impulse, says his company is 'entrenched' in China. The List TV 'We are deeply entrenched in China,' said Alan Dorfman, CEO of Super Impulse, a Bristol, Pa.-based maker of miniature toys that mostly cost under $10. 'It's a huge undertaking for a smaller company like us to set up elsewhere. It's not a reasonable option for us.' Advertisement 6 Toy companies sped up their shipping cycle in May and June. JOHN G MABANGLO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock The good news is that the industry rushed to get products to the US from China in May and June while the two countries negotiated a trade deal – and most expect to have enough toys for the holidays. It's what happens afterwards to tariffs, prices and inflation that's keeping the industry on edge. 'We are at risk of having to pay penalties to our retail customers,' Dorfman told The Post. 'In extreme cases retailers can also reject our goods if they arrive at their warehouses late.' Advertisement Toy makers are still holding out hope that their lobbying efforts for a tariff exemption on toys – which they enjoyed during Trump's first term in office – will pay off in the end. 'The outlook for this year is survival,' Dorfman said. 'We lowered our expectations from where we started the year. We hope to get through next year.'
Mint
30-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
US Fed Meeting: 5 key factors that will shape FOMC policy decision
US Fed Meeting: Even as markets have largely priced in the possibility of a status quo on interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, investors are keen on picking up signals from Chair Jerome Powell's commentary that rate cuts may not be far off and could begin as early as September. The US Federal Open Market Committee meeting is underway, with the outcome due later today, July 30. The US Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17. At this juncture, the Fed may maintain the federal funds rate in the 4.25 per cent to 4.50 per cent range, given the uncertainty over how the tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump will affect the economy — even as Trump continues to mount pressure on Powell to lower rates. "A rate cut by the Fed is unlikely today. More important would be the Fed commentary on the evolving economic outlook. The FOMC decision today is unlikely to impact the market," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. Let's take a look at five key factors that will influence the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve on July 30: In its June policy meeting, the Fed revised its economic growth forecast, highlighting the risks associated with Trump's tariffs. The central bank projected GDP growth of 1.4 per cent in 2025, down 0.3 per cent from the March meeting. The US economy did contract by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter this year, but the world's largest economy is not showing signs of significant stress at this juncture. In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its estimate for the US economy this year and next year. The IMF has raised its US growth forecast to 1.9 per cent for 2025 and 2 per cent for 2026, an increase of 10 basis points (bps) for 2025 and 30 bps for 2026. The IMF said tax incentives for corporate investment in the recent tax bill are also expected to boost growth slightly next year. Of course, the Fed will have its own assessments, which will be the bedrock of its policy decisions. The Fed cannot ignore the sticky inflation in the US. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7 per cent in June from 2.4 per cent in May. Experts expected the June CPI to be 2.6 per cent. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Producer Price Index (PPI), however, declined to 2.3 per cent in June from 2.7 per cent in May. June PPI came below expectations of 2.5 per cent. Nevertheless, inflation in the US remains above the central bank's long-term target of 2 per cent. At this point, the Fed cannot be sure that inflation will ease sustainably given high uncertainty over Trump's tariff policies. The US has finalised trade deals with several countries and is actively engaged in negotiations with other major economies, including India and China, for a conclusive agreement. However, the key point to keep in mind is that despite these trade deals, tariff rates on imports to the US may remain high, in the range of 15–20 per cent. This is likely to influence inflation trends in the US. So far, the US jobs market has remained resilient. However, June US job openings and hiring data indicate signs of weakness. US JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job openings dropped by 2,75,000 to 7.437 million in June, compared to the expectations of 7.510 million. In May, the US JOLTS data showed 7.71 million job openings — the highest since November 2024. There are apprehensions that the job market is yet to see the real impact of the tariffs, as Trump extended the tariff deadline for many countries to August 1. US stocks are trading near record highs, while the dollar and bond yields have been largely stable, barring occasional profit booking. The current financial market conditions do not warrant the Fed to bite the bullet and cut rates. The Fed wants to wait for more data before moving ahead with rate cuts. At this juncture, there is significant uncertainty about how the tariff war will evolve in the coming days. Despite trade deals, the element of unpredictability in President Trump's policies cannot be overlooked. Experts also warn that the tariff policies could cause lasting damage to the US economy. Trump's tariffs remain a key variable in the Fed's monetary policy considerations. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
The Star
20-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Ringgit closes slightly lower against greenback
SPI Asset Management's Innes said the ringgit is under pressure mainly because of concerns the US Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer. KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit slipped 0.01% against the US dollar at the close, as the local note continued trading on the defensive yesterday, which offered some technical comfort for the ringgit. At 6pm, the local note was traded at 4.2400/2490 from 4.2395/2440 at Wednesday's close. SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said the ringgit is under pressure mainly because of concerns that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might keep interest rates higher for longer, as markets reassess the inflation outlook. He added that the US dollar has strengthened recently as investors are becoming less certain that the Fed will cut rates in September. Innes also said that the dollar's recent bid reflected a subtle but growing shift in sentiment, which markets are slowly walking back their conviction that the Fed will cut the interest rate in September. 'Sticky core inflation, fuelled in part by service-sector dynamics and the slow-burn impact of tariffs, is keeping the Fed in a wait-and-see mode. 'The ringgit remains vulnerable to a temporary widening in the US-Malaysia exchange rate spread. 'This does not necessarily break the broader 4.20-4.30 range, and we are still inside expected bands for now, but it does create a bias for further weakness,' he added. Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said that the ringgit weakened against the US dollar in the early morning session to 4.2575 in response to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which continued to increase in June to 2.7% from 2.4% previously. 'The latest CPI print appears to give the impression that the Fed may not be inclined to cut the Fed Fund Rate in the upcoming meeting in July. 'In a nutshell, the ringgit maintained its narrow-range trade in light of the ongoing uncertainties over the US tariffs,' Mohd Afzanizam said.
