Latest news with #Ukraine-Russia
Barnama
a day ago
- Business
- Barnama
- Global Risks, Threats To A Sustainable World Economy
22/07/2025 04:03 PM Opinions on topical issues from thought leaders, columnists and editors. By : Prof Datuk Dr Ahmad Ibrahim Climate change and resource depletion are two of the defining risks to the global economy. This explains the growing worldwide efforts to reduce carbon emission and practise the efficient use of resources. But the climate and resource risks, though major, are not the only threats. The world economy today faces a complex, interlinked set of risks. As a country, Malaysia also has to deal with similar risks. Effectively managing them is key to our sustained economic performance. The other major risks include geopolitical tensions and conflicts, global health crises, financial system instability, technological disruptions, cybersecurity risks, inequality and social unrest, and demographic shifts. We also know for a fact that where there are risks, there are also opportunities. There is no doubt that political instability and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and global investment flows. The Ukraine-Russia war and US-China trade tensions are recent examples. Though many know that diplomacy and multilateralism through forums like the UN, ASEAN, G20 and WTO are the ways to manage them, executing is never easy. Aside from diplomacy, diversifying trade and energy routes, as well as building regional trade agreements to minimise overdependence on specific countries can be possible solutions. The COVID-19 pandemic showed how a health emergency can cripple economies, disrupt labour markets, and affect global travel and trade. Dealing with such health crisis includes investing in global health infrastructure, early warning systems, and pandemic preparedness. They also include building resilient, flexible supply chains for essential goods like medicines and food and of course international cooperation for the rapid deployment of vaccine and treatment. Rapid technological change a risk It is no secret that financial crises, market volatility and debt defaults can destabilise economies. Possible solutions include strengthening global financial regulations and oversight, maintaining sound fiscal and monetary policies. Rapid technological change is also a risk. It can displace jobs, widen inequality, and increase vulnerability to cyberattacks on financial systems, infrastructure, and data. We need to invest in digital infrastructure and cybersecurity, updating regulations to keep pace with technology (AI ethics, data privacy), and reskilling and upskilling the workforce for the digital economy. Rising wealth and income inequality form another risk. They can trigger social unrest, political instability, and economic stagnation. This is where implementing inclusive economic policies and access to education matter. Small businesses need support, and strengthening the social protection systems can make a difference. Furthermore, the ageing populations in developed countries create mismatches in the labour markets, pensions, and healthcare. Reforming pension and healthcare systems for ageing societies, investing in education and job creation for young populations, and managing migration policies effectively can be the tonic to neutralise such risks. How then can the world sustain the global economy amid these risks? A popular suggestion is to adopt a circular economy model. And decouple economic growth from resource use and emissions through renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and waste management. Also need to build resilient supply chains by diversifying suppliers, investing in local production capacity, and use digital tools for real-time risk management. No country can tackle these risks alone. Strengthening global governance and partnerships is crucial. Not to mention promoting responsible technological innovation. This is where we ensure that emerging technologies are developed with ethics, inclusivity, and sustainability in mind. The risks to the global economy are increasingly interconnected. A financial crisis can amplify social unrest. A pandemic can trigger supply chain and geopolitical tensions. A systems-thinking approach to risk management, grounded in sustainability, resilience and global cooperation, is the most effective path forward. Systems thinking is increasingly recognised as a powerful approach for managing complex, interconnected risks in today's global economy. Systems thinking is an approach to problem-solving that views challenges as parts of a broader, interconnected system rather than isolated issues. It focuses on understanding relationships and feedback loops, and identifying leverage points for interventions. How then to apply systems thinking to risk management and sustainability? First map the system. Use tools like causal loop diagrams, systems maps, or stock-and-flow models to visualise how different risks and factors interact. Identify reinforcing and balancing loops within the system. Economic inequality reinforcing social unrest, which in turn destabilises markets and worsens inequality. Focus on areas where small interventions can produce large system-wide changes. Education reforms can uplift economies, improve health, reduce crime, and empower communities simultaneously. Move beyond siloed thinking. Address climate, health, financial, and social risks through integrated policies and partnerships. There is no denying that by effectively managing such global risks, the impending threats to the world economy can be neutralised. The systems approach is the right way. -- BERNAMA Prof Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim is affiliated with the Tan Sri Omar Centre for STI Policy Studies at UCSI University and is an associate fellow at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, Universiti Malaya. He can be reached at ahmadibrahim@ (The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official policy or position of BERNAMA)
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
No fertilizer shortage in Kharif season, says govt
Patna: The state agriculture department has said that there would be no shortage of fertilizers in the Kharif season. Sources said rumours are doing rounds in the countryside of the state that there could be shortage of fertilizers due to geopolitical instability. The department maintained the Centre has ensured timely supply of fertilizer to the state. "The Centre is making efforts to make available agriculture inputs to the farmers of the state in time," state agriculture director, Nitin Kumar Singh, said in a communique, adding: "Rakes of fertilizers are being sent to all the districts on a regular basis to ensure their steady supply to the farmers." A farmer, Kumod Kumar, from Falka block in Katihar district said: "Yes, there is a rumour regarding short supply of fertilizer due to the global tension, especially the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and the recent Israel-Iran war. The fear is also that the prices of fertilizers would shoot up." He said the Potash variety of fertilizer sold for Rs 2,000 per 50 kg packet in Oct-Nov last year in the black market against the price of Rs 800 per packet. Apprehending the situation, the agriculture department has directed the district officials to "prevent the sale of fertilizers at illegal higher prices. Conduct regular raids against those indulging in black marketing and hoarding of fertilizers." During this year's Kharif season, FIRs have been lodged against nine retailers of fertilizers and licences of 93 establishments have also been cancelled, the communique said. Instructions have also been issued to the department's district officials to constantly hold meeting to monitor the supply and sale side of the fertilizers. The Centre has already fixed the quota for supply of various types of fertilizers to the state: 10.32 lakh metric tonne (MT) of urea, 2.20 lakh MT of DAP, 2.50 lakh MT of NKP, 50,000 MT of MOP and 75,000 MT of SSP. "There is no shortage of any variety of fertilizer in the state," agriculture director said, adding that against the state's quota fixed by the Centre, the fertilizer supply till Friday was 3.92 lakh MT of urea, 1.08 lakh MT of DAP, 2.32 lakh MT of NPK, 66,000 MT of MOP, and 1 lakh MT of SSP. "The rakes of fertilizers have also reached Bhabhua Road and Nawada district," he added.
Sky News AU
16-07-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
‘Can you hit Moscow': Donald Trump's extraordinary question to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed as US puts pressure on Putin to end war
President Donald Trump asked Volodymyr Zelensky whether he could 'hit' Russia's two largest cities during an extraordinary phone call, it has been reported. The contents of a call between Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart were revealed by the UK's Financial Times on Tuesday, just one day after the US President ramped up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war. "Volodymyr, can you hit Moscow? . . . Can you hit St Petersburg too?" the US president asked his Ukrainian counterpart in a conversation held on July 4. Citing multiple sources, the outlet said the US President was asking about whether Ukraine could make Russia 'feel the pain' of the ongoing war. 'Absolutely. We can if you give us the weapons,' Mr Zelensky reportedly said in response. President Trump responded to the reports by saying Ukraine 'should not target Moscow', with the White House saying the US President was "merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing". When asked whether he was now on Ukraine's side, the US President said he was 'on nobody's side'. 'You know the side I'm on? Humanities side,' Trump said. 'I want to stop the killing of thousands of people a week. I want to stop the killing. I want the killing to stop in the Ukraine-Russia war. That's the side I'm on.' The contents of Trump's call with Zelensky were revealed one day after the US President announced his administration would provide Ukraine with a major haul of 'top of the line weapons' and issued an ultimatum to President Putin. During a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Trump said he was 'very unhappy' with Putin and that if the Russian President failed to agree a deal to end the war within 50 days the US would impose a '100 per cent' tariffs on Russian goods and Russia's trade partners. "We're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal in 50 days, it's very simple,' President Trump said. The secondary sanctions would see India and China hit with massive tariffs unless they stopped buying Russian oil, a trade worth hundreds of billions. Trump also said the US would allow NATO allies to transfer Patriot missile systems, which would boost Ukraine's air defence. The US will then replenish the stocks in the countries that send them, with the cost being borne by the US's NATO allies. "We're going to make top-of-the-line weapons, and they'll be sent to NATO," Trump said. "We're going to have some come very soon, within days. Rutte said Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Canada all wanted to be a part of rearming Ukraine.
The South African
14-07-2025
- Business
- The South African
Warren Hammond's Personal View: Fragile highs
On 17 March 2025, The Personal View published: 'Positioning for the Market Turmoil Ahead, 2025-2028.' That article opened with this warning: 'The March-June 2025 period will bring extreme market volatility, driven by geopolitical conflicts, economic instability, and shifting power dynamics. Immediate shocks are severe, while long-term consequences shape financial markets, trade flows, and capital allocation into 2028.' That foresight was swiftly validated. By April, global markets were reeling: the VIX surged, geopolitics flared, and equities sold off aggressively as investor confidence faltered. A rearmament cycle is driving global defence spending higher Middle East instability, energy insecurity, and oil supply disruption; warning of Iran-Israel and Ukraine-Russia conflict The rise of cyberattacks and surveillance infrastructure as dominant investment themes A reiteration to accumulate gold, first recommended on 8 March 2021 Now, markets are near record highs, but complacency is visible, momentum is fading, and liquidity is thinning. July is fragile. The next wave of volatility is nearing. Headline-driven shocks from geopolitical, regulatory, or domestic unrest Potential for flash crashes or algorithmic dislocations Cyberattacks or infrastructure disruptions that unsettle sentiment A breakdown in leadership or sentiment sparking fear-based trading Overstretched valuations lacking support It's time to rebuild protection, reduce fragility, and prepare for downside risk. Downside Protection: Portfolio Insurance on the S&P 500 For global investors with equity exposure, especially those fully allocated, now is the time to consider derivative trades to hedge a sharp S&P 500 drawdown. Put Spread Collar Buy a near-the-money put, sell a deeper one, and finance with an OTM call. A low-cost way to insure downside while capping upside. Zero-Cost Put Spread Buy a 3-5% OTM put and sell a 7-10% OTM put for limited-cost protection against moderate declines. VIX Call Options Purchasing near-term VIX calls (2-4 weeks out) helps hedge tail risk, as volatility typically spikes during equity stress. SPX Ratio Put Spread Buy one ATM put and sell two or more deeper OTM puts. Lower cost, but introduces risk below a second threshold, is useful in deep sell-offs. These can be tailored to other global indices (Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, Nikkei, JSE Top 40, etc.) correlated with U.S. equity direction. Conclusion: The market may look strong on the surface, but it's skating on thin ice. July is tactically vulnerable. Volatility returns when least expected. Now is the time to position defensively, protect gains, and prepare for a sharp risk repricing. Have you started adjusting your investment strategy in anticipation of renewed volatility? Share your thoughts, questions, or alternative strategies in the comments below. Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp, Facebook, X and Bluesky for the latest news.
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Mideast conflict is latest threat to global fertiliser supplies
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns about potential disruptions to global urea supplies, a critical nitrogen-based fertilizer. With almost half of the world's urea shipments originating from the region, recent escalations have sparked fears of supply chain disruptions. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Recent tensions in the Middle East are the latest reminder of the risks to crucial fertiliser supplies from the embattled half of the world's shipments of urea, a nitrogen-based fertiliser relied on by farmers to grow grains and other key crops, come from the Mideast, Rabobank senior analyst Samuel Taylor said in a report this week. The latest escalation of violence between Israel and Iran had raised fears over a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical export such a move isn't likely at this point, 'we can't take for granted just how concentrated some of these production and supply chains are,' Taylor said in an interview. 'We seem to be getting these reminders on a yearly basis.'The last big geopolitical shock to the price and availability of crop nutrients — the start of the Ukraine-Russia war in 2022 — was followed by runaway food inflation and a severe strain on farmers. Fertiliser markets over the last five years have undergone extreme price swings due to supply-chain shocks from the global pandemic and a surge in European prices of natural gas, a main input for most nitrogen agriculture producers Brazil and India are especially dependent on global markets for fertiliser. Brazil, which produces two corn harvests a year, imports more than 90% of its needed urea. Mideast tensions have sent prices of urea up this week in the South American nation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence the US, the current season's top fertiliser application times have passed, though growers in just a few months will be turning to fall fertiliser applications for the next season.'For US farmers, don't expect a reversion down in pricing,' Taylor said. 'You're going to face cost price inflation into next year.'
