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Politico
5 hours ago
- Business
- Politico
Not-so-great expectations
Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Canada Playbook. In today's edition: → Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC heads back to D.C. → The future implications of public service cuts. → Canada keeps watch on a Chinese research vessel. Trade war HUNTSVILLE LEVEL SET — Negotiating with DONALD TRUMP is proving harder than it looks, no matter how many Canadian lawmakers have read 'The Art of the Deal.' — Tuesday morning: Premiers met with Prime Minister MARK CARNEY, eager for signs of progress. — Tuesday afternoon: The leaders emerged from the update resigned that a deal may not arrive by the end of the month. Trump has said that on Aug. 1, he plans to raise tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent. Whether they will apply to goods that do not comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement remains to be seen. 'Of course we would like to have the ideal deal, as fast as possible. But what can we get?' Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT said after the meeting. 'You almost need to ask Donald Trump and I'm not even sure he knows himself what he wants.' — The expectation manager: Carney, who ran for office on his economic bona fides, said he wants the best deal for Canada — and won't settle for an agreement 'at any cost.' 'They're complex negotiations, and we'll use all the time that's necessary,' he added. — Put another way: Toronto Star columnist MARTIN REGG COHN writes from Huntsville: 'When in doubt, manage expectations. Manage the premiers. Manage the media. Manage the country.' — Can't stop, won't stop: A team of Canadian negotiators is headed to Washington today, including Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and Carney's chief of staff, MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD. — Hurry up and wait: 'We want a good deal, not a fast deal. And we don't want to make a fast deal at the expense of a good deal. That's the realization we've come to,' New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT said after the briefing with the PM. — Regardless: If Team Canada appeared united, the night before probably helped. — All steak, no sizzle: Ontario Premier DOUG FORD hosted a barbecue at his Muskoka cottage on Monday night, where the group chowed down on steak, chicken and seasonal vegetables, and enjoyed plenty of libations. Premiers quipped that it was nice to mingle without cameras rolling and the media nearby. Ford organized a birthday cake for British Columbia Premier DAVID EBY, who turned 49 on Monday. — Extra room: The prime minister slept at Ford's cottage, in a guest house. The two stayed up until 12:30 a.m., chatting in front of the fireplace and 'solving all the world's problems,' Ford said. 'The prime minister is the most humble person you'd ever want to meet,' he added. — Skipping town: The PM did not stick around for a Tuesday night gala hosted by Ford, who will pass the Council of the Federation chair role to Prince Edward Island Premier ROB LANTZ. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — The PM will visit his birthplace: Fort Smith, Northwest Territories. He's touring the community alongside Premier R.J. SIMPSON. The PM will meet with families to discuss affordability challenges and talk to Indigenous leaders about wildfires. In the evening, he'll travel to Inuvik to meet with Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED and Inuvialuit Regional Corporation CEO DUANE NINGAQSIQ SMITH. — It's the final day of the premiers' confab. CP's LIAM CASEY reports internal trade, public safety and health care on the agenda. — The sentencing hearing for 'Freedom Convoy' leaders TAMARA LICH and CHRIS BARBER begins this morning. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . For your radar CUTS BOTH WAYS — As virtually every cross-border conversation these days seems to hinge on Canada-U.S. negotiations, CHRISTOPHER SANDS worries about the bureaucrats who keep the broader relationship ticking. Job cuts are a reality in Washington as Canadian public servants get anxious about the impact of planned spending reductions. Sands, director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies, gamed out all the uncertainty in a Substack post. He let Playbook in on why he wrote it: 'To try to alert people about the danger. … No one has been talking about the future implications.' — Anybody there? Canadians who need answers on shared priorities already compete with other countries for Americans' time, Sands writes. — Prepare for longer lines: 'Shrinking the federal workforce risks triggering a chain reaction of triage across all levels of government, keeping Canada waiting on hold.' — Meeting strategy: Americans are already outnumbered at bilateral meetings by Canadians who sometimes represent multiple departments from two levels of government. Sands wrote that the Americans in the room are 'tempted to 'play the clock' in meetings. Everyone speaks until time runs out and before anyone can assign homework or ask for a decision. That strategy results in more meetings — and more friction.' He tells Playbook: 'I don't think many Canadian officials appreciate the U.S. tactics of stalling by letting the Canadians talk.' — Warning sign: Canadians, too, can delay progress by using meetings to settle internal squabbles. Sands wrote: 'Some future U.S. officials may conclude 'the juice isn't worth the squeeze' — that working with Canada costs more effort than it's worth.' We asked Sands if Canadians understand the risk of time-crunched Americans prioritizing other files. 'Occasionally, you get someone to nervously acknowledge the point, but then there is always a less frightening explanation they will adopt,' he tells us. — The pessimistic scenario: 'The U.S.-Canada relationship could easily devolve into a series of awkward first encounters with new staff, no historical perspective, inadequate institutional support from within government and too little outside the government from universities and think tanks,' Sands wrote. Unless it doesn't: 'There's still time to act. To build capacity. To preserve knowledge. To invest in people and institutions who understand the relationship and can carry it forward.' For your radar KEEPING AN EYE OUT — As we noted for Pros yesterday, and CBC's Murray Brewster reported, a Canadian military aircraft has been monitoring a Chinese research vessel operating in Arctic waters outside Canadian territorial waters. The Canadian Armed Forces confirmed to POLITICO on Monday that a CP-140 maritime patrol aircraft recently dispatched to Anchorage, Alaska, has kept an eye on the polar icebreaker known as Xue Long 2. — Why send a plane? 'Competitors are exploring Arctic waters and the seafloor, probing our infrastructure, and collecting intelligence using dual-purpose research vessels and surveillance platforms,' the DND statement read. — Duration of operations: The Canadian military 'will continue to actively monitor the Xue Long 2 so long as it continues to operate near Canadian territorial waters.' — Eyes on the trackers: STEFFAN WATKINS, an Ottawa-based research consultant who tracks the movements of military aircraft and vessels, published the Chinese ship's whereabouts in a weekly report — and noted the CP-140's flights out of Anchorage. — Two years running: When Xue Long 2 sailed a similar path last year through the Bering Strait and into Arctic waters, the Royal Canadian Navy sent a frigate to shadow the Chinese vessel. A CP-140 conducted similar patrols at the time, Brewster and others reported. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY told The Globe and Mail the government is in active discussions with automakers about EV sales mandates. — In the Financial Post, GABRIEL FRIEDMAN reports: Tariffs are costing automakers billions. — In The New Yorker, ANTONIA HITCHENS profiles Trump's tariff dealmaker-in-chief. — SARA CONNORS of APTN speaks with Indigenous groups and conservationists about the green light for oil and gas drilling within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. — PAUL WELLS challenges PIERRE POILIEVRE's musings on X. — From POLITICO's PAUL DALLISON: The political wisdom of OZZY OSBOURNE. PROZONE The latest Pro Canada PM subscriber newsletter via SUE ALLAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Carney's team heads back to DC. From PHELIM KINE, ELI STOKOLS and DANIEL DESROCHERS: Trump's threat of Russia-related secondary tariffs sparks skepticism. Our latest headlines for POLITICO Pro readers: — OpenAI CEO warns of 'impending fraud crisis.' — Trump has set off a lobbying boom in Washington. — Trump announces trade deal with Japan. — France wants EU to punch back harder at Trump in tariff fight. — Bessent: Next round of trade talks with China happening next week. LOBBY WATCH — NATIONAL's MARTIN DARAICHE logged a July 11 meeting with PMO chief of staff MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD on behalf of Marinvest Energy Canada, the subsidiary of a Norwegian company that wants to build an LNG export facility in Baie-Comeau, Quebec. — McMillan Vantage's JEFF RUTLEDGE posted a July 17 meeting with PMO senior policy adviser SHAWN GROVER on behalf of Glencore Canada. The company owns Elk Valley Resources, a steel-making coal mine operator in British Columbia. — Navigator's MATT TRIEMSTRA is now repping the Treaty Land Entitlement Committee of Manitoba, a group of First Nations negotiating a settlement with Ottawa. — La-Z-Boy of Ottawa, Kingston and Gatineau wants to secure tariff relief for furniture imports — and is now repped on the Hill by consultant ALAIN PILON. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Le Journal de Montréal columnist RICHARD MARTINEAU and former Progressive Conservative MP DAVID DAUBNEY. Movers and shakers: Former NDP MP BRIAN MASSE is now an employment services specialist at the Multicultural Council of Windsor-Essex — the agency where he was youth coordinator before winning his first election in 2002. LAURA LUMSDEN, former director of Canada-U.S. coordination at Global Affairs Canada, is now counselor of political affairs at Canada's UN mission. Media mentions: Global News Ottawa bureau chief MERCEDES STEPHENSON announced some personal news: 'I'm expecting my first baby in a few weeks and will be taking some time off for parental leave to focus on this very special assignment.' DAVID AKIN will sub in as acting bureau chief. Noted: The PM told the premiers that Ottawa's 'Federal Major Projects Office' and the Indigenous Advisory Council will open by Labor Day. Republicans want to rename Kennedy Center's opera house after MELANIA TRUMP. TRIVIA Tuesday's answer: Former Prime Minister MACKENZIE KING died July 22, 1950. Props to GANGA WIGNARAJAH, J.D.M. STEWART, BOB GORDON, DARRYL DAMUDE, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DARREN MCEWAN, JENN KEAY, GREG FERGUS, GREG MACEACHERN, ELIZABETH BURN, DAN MCCARTHY, JEFFREY VALOIS, SHAUGHN MCCARTHUR, DARREN MAJOR, RAY DEL BIANCO, JOHN PEPPER, MARCEL MARCOTTE and KATIE FEENAN. Wednesday's question: In 'Value(s)', MARK CARNEY credits which global tech giant with advising him how to make decisions? Answers to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: MICKEY DJURIC and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.
New Straits Times
2 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
Commerce Secretary Lutnick says he is confident US will secure trade deal with EU
WASHINGTON: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident the United States can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was "plenty of room" for agreement. "These are the two biggest trading partners in the world, talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done," Lutnick said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation." US President Donald Trump threatened on July 12 to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Lutnick said that was a hard deadline. "Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," he said on CBS. Trump announced the tariffs in a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He sent letters to other trading partners including Mexico, Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. Lutnick also said he expected Trump to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) signed during Trump's first White House term in 2017-21. Barring any major changes, USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico and Canada are exempt from tariffs. "I think the president is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA, but that's a year from today," Lutnick said.
New York Post
3 days ago
- Business
- New York Post
Commerce chief Lutnick insists Aug. 1 is ‘hard deadline' for EU and tariffs: ‘They're going to start paying'
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was adamant Sunday that the Aug. 1 date President Trump gave Europe to negotiate new trade arrangements is a 'hard deadline.'' 'So on Aug. 1, the new tariff rates will come in. But nothing stops countries from talking to us after Aug. 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on Aug. 1,' Lutnick told CBS News' 'Face the Nation' when asked the European Union, whose representatives he was on the phone with before the interview. 'That's a hard deadline,' the Trump official said. Advertisement The president has shifted his deadline several times. On April 2, 'Liberation Day,' he debuted his customized rates, which were supposed to go into effect April 9. They it got pushed 90 days and then to Aug. 1. Trump has threatened to slap a 30% tariff rate against the EU and a flurry of customized tariff rates on other countries that fail to cut a new deal with him. Those tariffs come on top of the 10% baseline tax against virtually all countries. 3 President Trump moved his tariff deadline several times, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stressed Aug. 1 is now a firm cut-off. AFP via Getty Images Advertisement 3 Trump has made recalibrating US trade policy a top priority of his second term. AP Despite the fast-approaching deadline, Lutnick conveyed confidence that the US and EU will come to some sort of arrangement. 'There's plenty of room. Look, the president and the European Union, these are the two biggest trading partners in the world talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done,' the commerce secretary said. 'You are going to see the best set of trade deals you've ever seen for America and for the American people.' Advertisement Lutnick also stressed that the 10% baseline tariff rate is 'definitely going to stay' amid negotiations. So far, the Trump administration has announced tariff deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam as well as a tariff truce with China, which Trump claims is subject to a 55% rate. 'The next two weeks are going to be weeks for the record books. President Trump is going to deliver for the American people,' he said. In addition to the baseline tariffs and levies on imports from China, the Trump administration has imposed 25% tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, steel and imports from Canada and Mexico that don't comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Advertisement 3 Lutnick urged US trading partners to finish negotiating deals with the Trump administration by the deadline. REUTERS Trump has threatened to raise that to 35% against Canada and 30% for Mexico. This month, he has been blasting out letters to smaller US trading partners urging them to get a deal done or face the 'Liberation Day' tariffs. But Lutnick indicated that many of the smaller countries may simply face the 10% baseline rate while the Trump administration focuses on retooling trade with larger nations. 'I think what you've got is you should assume that the small countries, you know, the Latin American countries, the Caribbean countries, many countries in Africa, they will have a baseline tariff of 10%,' Lutnick said. 'Then the bigger economies will either open themselves up or they'll pay a fair tariff to America for not opening themselves up and [for] treating America unfairly.'
The Citizen
5 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Weekly economic wrap: US tariffs, mining production and retail sales
The US tariffs have turned the global economy into a roller-coaster as it affects every part of economic growth and decline. In what was supposed to be a quiet week on the economic front, US tariffs kept people watching the economic news, while there was local news on mining production and retail sales. Lisette IJssel de Schepper, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), says the big global data prints of the week came on Tuesday, with better-than-expected Chinese GDP growth for the second quarter and US core inflation coming in lower than expected, but still (finally) reflecting some signs of tariffs being passed on to consumers. In South Africa, she says, the uptick in mining production and retail sales was positive for gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter. 'There was plenty of political news to digest. Globally, US President Donald Trump dished out more tariffs to be implemented on 1 August, while the push to essentially oust US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell continued. 'Locally, President Cyril Ramaphosa placed police minister Senzo Mchunu on special leave, something which has never happened before, pending the outcome of another commission of inquiry.' ALSO READ: Devastating impact of US tariffs on SA automotive sector even before implementation Big story of the week: 30% US tariff on European Union She points out that the big story over the weekend was that the US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the European Union (EU), more than the 20% Liberation Day tariff announced in early April. Key training partners Canada (35%) and Mexico (30%) face similar hurdles, although some exceptions for trade covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) remain in effect. 'All countries have, so far, held off on immediate retaliation, but the EU finalised a list of countermeasures to strategically target US exports to the EU. It has held off on retaliating so that negotiations can continue, but plans to target €72 billion of imports, ranging from industrial goods (Boeing, cars and machinery) to agri-food products (including bourbon). 'Some EU countries pushed for the option to use anti-coercion instruments, which give broader powers to, for example, introduce taxes on US tech companies or restrict access to parts of the market.' ALSO READ: ArcelorMittal warns it might close without urgent solution to challenges Headlines in global markets written in halls of power, not just Wall Street Bianca Botes, director at Citadel Global, says this week in global markets the headlines were written not just on Wall Street, but in the halls of power from Washington to Beijing. 'Trade, technology and teetering central bank policies collided, reordering how investors see risk, reward and the future path of markets.' She says Trump's surprise announcement of potential sweeping tariffs on its key trading partners, South Korea, Japan, Brazil and Canada, sent waves through the commodity world and reignited concerns about global supply chains. 'Notably, a proposed hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, potentially starting 1 August, catapulted the red metal's futures prices. While previous tariff announcements sometimes triggered swift, knee-jerk selloffs, market reaction this time was more nuanced. 'Why? Investors are, by now, warier but also somewhat desensitised to the tug-of-war on trade. Rather than a wholesale equity retreat, money, instead, flowed into safe havens. Silver surged nearly 4% and select commodity classes outperformed as investors hedged their exposure. 'This sector-by-sector action underscores a key theme for 2025: the world is learning to trade around trade policy, analysing which assets get hit hardest and which might benefit.' ALSO READ: Government must intervene with US tariffs, act stronger with police corruption Oil and gold also affected by US tariffs Botes points out that oil steadied on supply worries, while gold dipped on strong data. 'Brent Crude hovered near $69.60/barrel, holding on to a 1.5% gain, after geopolitical tensions and tighter supply boosted prices. 'Meanwhile, gold hovered just below $3 340/ounce, heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks. The retreat follows stronger US data, with retail sales rebounding and jobless claims hitting a three-month low, thereby reducing the urgency for Fed rate cuts. 'Despite the policy tug-of-war within the Fed, gold remains underpinned by geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainty. With Trump's notification of tariff rates to over 150 trade partners, safe haven appeal remains intact.' According to Busisiwe Nkonki and Isaac Matshego, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, the rand is trading around R17.70/$ this afternoon, pulling back from R17.92 last Friday despite worries about the 30% import tariff on exports to the US. 'The rand benefited from positive sentiment that boosted emerging market currencies.' In commodity markets, the Brent Crude Oil price softened on concerns about the effects of the Trump tariffs on global demand, while gold continued to move around $3 340 and platinum jumped to the highest level since August 2014 as supply concerns worsened. ALSO READ: Does stronger economic activity indicate improved GDP? Will mining production perform better in the second quarter? Mining production increased by an above-consensus 0.2% in May, marking the first annual expansion since the start of this year, after a sharp 7.7% contraction in April. Iron ore was the largest positive contributor, while declines in manganese ore and coal production were the biggest drag. Nomvelo Moima, an economist at the BER, says that barring a sharp reversal in June, it appears the mining sector is likely to contribute positively to GDP in the second quarter. Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, Thanda Sithole and Koketso Mano, economists at FNB, say the increase in seasonally adjusted mining output suggests a continued improvement in output in the second quarter, with production up 2.6% in the three months until May. 'Should this trend continue, mining production will contribute positively to GDP growth.' Nkonki and Matshego say the outlook remains murky. 'While most mining products will likely be exempted from the 30% US tariff on South African imports, the ongoing tariff war will hurt global growth in the quarters ahead, weighing on export demand and commodity prices.' ALSO READ: Retail sales: South Africans spent R19.6 billion on clothes and furniture in May Retail sales and motor trade faring better, but wholesale drags Statistics SA released a batch of domestic trade data for May, affirming that consumer spending remained solid during the second quarter. Real retail trade sales increased by 4.2%, while motor trade sales increased by 4.7%. However, the wholesale sector did not fare too well, as annual wholesale trade sales contracted for a fifth straight month in May by 4.3%. Matikinca-Ngwenya, Mkhwanazi, Sithole and Mano say retail activity over the past three months reflected no growth compared to the preceding three-month period, suggesting that household spending is losing momentum. 'However, any build-up in momentum in June will support GDP growth.' Nkonki and Isaac Matshego point out that only general dealers and hardware stores saw sales increase over the month, while sales at most other retailers, including online stores, declined in May. 'Despite the mixed results, sales remained well above last year's levels across the board. 'Retailers should benefit from the ongoing recovery in consumer demand as household incomes strengthen, inflation remains relatively subdued, and the recent interest rate cuts reduce borrowing costs and revive credit demand.'
Hamilton Spectator
5 days ago
- Business
- Hamilton Spectator
Carney confirms possibility of lumber quotas in trade deal with the United States
Prime Minister Mark Carney said any future trade deal with the United States could include quotas on Canadian softwood lumber exports, a sector that has been a sore point in cross-border trade relations long before U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. 'There is normally some element of managed trade that comes out of any agreement, ' Carney said Wednesday in Hamilton, Ont., where he spoke to steelworkers to announce measures to support that industry. He said 'that can include quotas,' among a 'variety of trade factors.' Carney's comments come after B.C. Premier David Eby told Bloomberg News that the federal government had been speaking with the provinces about quotas to resolve the softwood lumber dispute as part of a larger deal. 'What the premier is saying that we are putting the option of quotas on the table as part of those discussions,' Ravi Parmar, B.C.'s Forest Minister said in an interview Wednesday. Parmar acknowledged that neither government nor industry have historically supported such quotas. 'But this is a really important time,' Parmar said. 'We are looking for the federal government to ensure that softwood lumber is just as important as steel or aluminum and auto in those conversations.' Carney said he had been in close contact with Eby about the softwood file, adding that resolving the conflict is a 'top priority' as the United States prepares to double various duties to 34.45 per cent. Canada and the United States have been without a softwood lumber agreement since 2015, and Eby has previously said that resolving the dispute could 'build momentum' for a larger, more comprehensive trade deal. Trump's latest threat is to impose 35 per cent tariffs by Aug. 1 on Canadian goods currently not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Carney said he agreed with Eby's idea of resolving the softwood lumber dispute as part of a larger trade deal, but added that both issues are unfolding along different times lines. British Columbia accounts for about 40 per cent of Canada's softwood lumber exports to the United States, according to the BC Lumber Trade Council, but the industry has been struggling, and artificial export limits could further damage it. Kurt Niquidet, president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council, said in a written statement that the industry represents a 'cornerstone' of B.C.'s forest economy, and a 'vital part' of Canada's trading relationship with the U.S. 'Resolving this long-standing dispute is essential to protecting jobs, supporting communities, and ensuring a stable, competitive future for our forest sector.' That statement did not directly comment on the quota proposal. — with files from David Baxter This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 16, 2025. Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .
