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Straits Times
41 minutes ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Japan PM Ishiba refutes reports of imminent resignation after surprise US trade deal
Japan's Prime Minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba at the party's headquarters in Tokyo on July 23. – Japan's embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba denied on July 23 that he was about to quit, saying that there was 'not a single grain of truth' in source-based reports that said he would step down within weeks. News of a looming resignation, likely after key political events in August, had threatened to eclipse a surprise trade deal struck with the United States just hours earlier, which shaved 'reciprocal' tariffs from 25 per cent down to 15 per cent. Despite Mr Ishiba's denials, the reality is that his position is increasingly precarious after his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historic defeat in the Upper House election on July 20 , following a decisive trouncing in Lower House polls in October 2024. The crushing outcome has stirred the hornet's nest and might prove to be a career-ending blow, as the LDP and coalition partner Komeito now lack a majority in both Houses of Japan's bicameral Parliament. It remains uncertain whether the US trade deal, which was universally cheered by investors and economists, will quell the brewing civil war within the LDP and offer Mr Ishiba some breathing room. The Nikkei 225 index rallied, briefly soaring more than 1,500 points to a one-year high before paring some gains to close 1,396 points, or 3.5 per cent, higher at 41,171.32. The trade deal not only provided significant relief – the 15 per cent rate is the lowest so far among countries with a trade surplus with the US – but also spared Japan from making substantial concessions in its two 'sacred cow' industries: cars and rice. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Judge asks prosecution for more information on Kpods in first case involving etomidate-laced vapes Singapore Male victim of fatal Toa Payoh fire was known to keep many things, say residents Singapore 5 teens arrested for threatening boy with knife, 2 charged with causing hurt Singapore HDB launches 10,209 BTO and balance flats, as priority scheme for singles kicks in Sport Saka the difference as Arsenal beat AC Milan at National Stadium Singapore Cyclist charged after allegedly hitting elderly pedestrian, killing him Singapore Over 1.15 million Singaporeans aged 21 to 59 have claimed SG60 vouchers Singapore Singapore Oceanarium will enhance tourism while supporting sustainability: Grace Fu However, it does not erase the precedent of Japanese leaders resigning in disgrace after electoral setbacks, a fate Mr Ishiba is resisting . At a half-hour news conference on July 21, Mr Ishiba used the word 'responsibility' 10 times as he tried to justify his leadership. He held his ground when confronted about apparent double standards, having been vocal for then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation in 2007 after the coalition lost its Upper House majority in that year's election. Mr Ishiba countered that all he wanted was for Mr Abe to 'offer his sincere explanations as to why he should remain' – something he said he was now doing. He added that the LDP remained the largest party in the Diet, and cited the 'national crisis' of US trade tariffs as a reason why a political vacuum must be avoided. Now that this 'national crisis' has been averted, two schools of thought appear to have emerged within the LDP. One suggests that the surprisingly favourable agreement terms, after a battle that Mr Ishiba said was fought on ' national interests ', could give him the tailwind to stay on, especially if future polls reflect improved public sentiment. Yet the prevailing opinion was that Mr Ishiba should depart – on a high note, with the trade victory – after a turbulent nine months in power. The movement to force him out if he does not quit on his own accord has been gaining traction. Younger and mid-ranking lawmakers, including political scions Yasutaka Nakasone and Takako Suzuki, are leading a petition for Mr Ishiba to resign. Local prefectural chapters from Hokkaido to Ibaraki, Ehime, and Kochi have submitted formal letters requesting his resignation. According to LDP by-laws, members can force a party presidential election if a majority of lawmakers and prefectural delegates demand one. The party's election strategy chief Seiji Kihara even said that a hard reset was necessary to win back trust, suggesting that the LDP should cede power to the opposition. Two separate polls by Kyodo News and Yomiuri Shimbun this week, conducted before the trade deal was concluded, indicate that public opinion is divided over whether Mr Ishiba should quit, although a slight majority is in favour of his resignation. The Mainichi newspaper had cited unnamed sources as saying that Mr Ishiba 'will resign by the end of August', a timeframe chosen with the political calendar in mind. Mr Ishiba is slated to preside over war memorial services marking 80 years since the end of World War II, before welcoming top African leaders for a triennial summit on Japan-Africa cooperation. In the same month, the LDP will complete its post-mortem into the Upper House election results, which Mr Ishiba is expected to use as a basis for his future decisions. On July 23, Mr Ishiba sought a rare meeting with former prime ministers Taro Aso (2008-2009), Yoshihide Suga (2020-2021), and Fumio Kishida (2021-2024). He told reporters that the subject of his future was never raised during the 80-minute talks. 'Neither have I ever made statements that I will resign. There is absolutely no truth to the media reports,' he averred, adding: 'We shared a strong sense of crisis, that a split within the LDP must never occur.' He added that his immediate priority was to familiarise himself with the trade agreement, given that Japan exports more than 4,000 items to the US, and to ensure affected businesses receive the necessary support. The 15 per cent tariff rate has been broadly viewed in a positive light, with Ms Asuka Tatebayashi, a senior analyst at Mizuho Bank's global strategic advisory department, telling The Straits Times that the impact would be 'much lower and minimised' than the mooted 25 per cent. She added that no quota was set on Japanese car exports to the US, as was feared, while the deal puts an end to months of uncertainty for businesses. Tariffs on Japanese cars and car parts would be cut from 27.5 per cent to 15 per cent. And as Japan promised to buy more American rice, this would be done by increasing the ratio of US imports under an existing 'minimum access' framework that allows 770,000 tonnes of rice to be imported tariff-free per year, above which a duty of 341 yen per kilogram is charged. Meanwhile, Japan would also inject US$550 billion (S$703 billion) of investments into various sectors, including semiconductors, ships and steel . Chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, on his eighth trip to Washington, admitted that he did not expect to be able to conclude the deal on this visit. Former Japanese trade negotiator Sota Kato told ST that it was unclear what brought the deal across the finishing line now, adding that the LDP's Upper House defeat could have been a catalyst. 'The most plausible theory is that the US was in a hurry to seal the deal before the Ishiba administration is brought down and things have to start over,' said Dr Kato, who is now a research director at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research think-tank. He believed the deal's conclusion would hasten Mr Ishiba's departure, but wondered if Japan's next leader will come from the LDP, given that the ruling coalition does not hold a majority in the Diet. Regardless, political scientist Toru Yoshida of Doshisha University felt that behind-the-scenes horse-trading with the opposition will be inevitable, whether Mr Ishiba stays or goes. Or, he added: 'The LDP may try to secure a comeback through a snap election under a new prime minister.'


Tokyo Weekender
3 hours ago
- Business
- Tokyo Weekender
Shigeru Ishiba Denies Rumors He Will Resign at the End of August
According to local media reports, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to resign at the end of August. The news came shortly after US President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached a 'massive deal' with Japan. Ishiba , who will meet with former prime ministers, Taro Aso, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida later today, denied the rumors. 'Nothing that has been reported is true,' he told reporters on Wednesday afternoon. Following Sunday's election, which saw the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lose its majority in the Upper House, Ishiba was asked if he pla n ned to continue as prime minister, to which he replied, ' T hat's right.' Members of his own party, though saw things differently. For the first time in its 70-year history, the LDP leads a coalition that doesn't control either house and that is deemed as unacceptable. LDP Members Call for Ishiba to Resign Aso, who served as PM from 2008 to 2009, is one of his most vocal critics. He told TV Asahi that he 'couldn't accept' Ishiba staying on as prime minister. It would appear that many within the party agree with him. Upper House lawmaker Shigeharu Aoyama also called for him to resign, adding that it's impossible to leave the job of negotiating tariffs with the US to a lame-duck government. A tariff deal, though, may already have been reached. Posting on Truth Social, Trump wrote, 'We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made. Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 billion dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits. This deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it.' Discover Tokyo, Every Week Get the city's best stories, under-the-radar spots and exclusive invites delivered straight to your inbox. By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy . Related Posts LDP-Led Coalition Lose Upper House Majority, Ishiba Vows To Continue as Prime Minister Sanseito Explained: The Alarming Rise of Japan's Far-Right Movement Why Japanese Leftists Are Using Melonpan to Mock Sanseito


Asahi Shimbun
6 hours ago
- Politics
- Asahi Shimbun
Survey: Sanseito faithful a new breed of political animal in Japan
Backed by those who lean politically to the right and do not trust the government, Sanseito seemingly stormed out of nowhere to score a major upset in the July 20 Upper House election. Its supporters are also avid users of YouTube and social media, which offer an alternative to traditional TV and newspaper coverage. This picture of the party with its 'Japanese First' agenda emerged from a joint online survey by The Asahi Shimbun and Asako Miura, a social psychology professor at the University of Osaka. The survey targeting eligible voters nationwide about online awareness has been conducted every month since February. HOW THE DATA PLAYED OUT For the latest findings, data from 1,961 respondents who answered where they would vote in the proportional representation districts on July 18, just before the Upper House election, was analyzed. When asked to choose their perception of their political position on an 11-point scale from (0) 'left' to (10) 'right,' the average score for Sanseito supporters was 6.1. Compared with supporters of the 10 major parties, Sanseito's were more 'right-leaning.' Their average score was not as high as the 7.0 average of Conservative Party of Japan supporters but was close to the 6.2 average for ruling Liberal Democratic Party supporters. Despite this, distrust of the government among Sanseito supporters was strong. When asked to choose from a scale of (1) 'I don't trust the government at all' to (5) 'I trust the government completely,' the average score for Sanseito supporters was 2.1. This compared with an average score of 3.0 for supporters of the LDP as well as the 2.6 average score for supporters of junior coalition partner Komeito. It was also below the average score of 2.4 for supporters of opposition Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), and the average score of 2.3 for supporters of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. SEEKING DRASTIC CHANGE Trust in experts such as the police and university professors was also low among Sanseito supporters, indicating a high level of dissatisfaction with Japanese society. Trust in the mass media was only 2.0 among Sanseito supporters, lower than the overall average of 2.3. Perhaps reflecting this, Sanseito supporters sought information about the election from video-sharing sites such as YouTube, rather than from television or newspapers, more frequently than supporters of the other 10 parties. Sanseito supporters also obtained information from social networking sites such as X, second only to supporters of the Conservative Party of Japan. COMPLETE LACK OF TRUST On the other hand, Sanseito supporters were second only to supporters of the Conservative Party of Japan in watching TV infrequently. Sanseito supporters were more likely to agree with the statement that vaccination against infectious diseases such as COVID-19 'should not be recommended' and the sentiment that 'foreigners get preferential treatment' in the current social system. In both cases, they ranked second in most likely to agree, after supporters of the Conservative Party of Japan. Sanseito supporters were also more likely to agree with conspiracy theories, such as 'there are many very serious things going on in the world that are not known to the public' and 'there are secret organizations that exert a strong influence on political decisions.' Again, this trend was second only to that of supporters of the Conservative Party of Japan. Given that conspiracy theories lack a factual basis, TV networks and newspapers rarely cover them. The data analysis suggests that the supporters of Sanseito tended to obtain their information through YouTube and social networking sites, indicating deep-seated distrust of the mass media and the Establishment in general. Compared with the previous online awareness surveys, the number of respondents who said they intended to vote for Sanseito in the proportional representation districts increased more than five-fold after May. Half of the increase came from the opposition Democratic Party for the People's support base. CORE FAN BASE An analysis of those who had already intended to vote for Sanseito in May showed that they were the most likely of the supporters of the 10 parties to be negative about vaccines, think foreigners have favored status and espouse conspiratorial views. In short, Sanseito originally had a 'core' group of supporters, but as the party expanded it gathered many supporters from other parties such as DPP. As a result, the percentage of 'extreme' supporters may have decreased. SOCIAL MEDIA FIX In the survey, DPP supporters and Sanseito supporters share a similarity in that they harbor strong distrust of the mass media and the government and obtained a lot of information through video-sharing sites and social networking sites. This may have made it easier for the DPP supporters to switch to Sanseito when the DPP was in disarray over the endorsement of its Upper House election candidates.


AllAfrica
6 hours ago
- Automotive
- AllAfrica
Trump-Japan deal cheers markets, but may be ephemeral
A year ago, the notion of a 15% tariff on Japanese cars entering the US would have ignited uproar, with both sides braced for economic upheaval. Today, with US President Donald Trump unveiling a sweeping trade pact that halves previously threatened levies and secures a US$550 billion Japanese investment in America, we're seeing a recalibration, not capitulation, in global commerce. This deal, which trims auto tariffs from 25% to 15%, represents a pivotal shift. It reassures markets while signaling a tactical win for US trade strategy, though it does not resolve every friction point, especially those tied to agriculture. Nonetheless, the immediate response from Tokyo's stock markets—Japan's top automakers' shares rallied with double-digit gains while the Nikkei leapt—speaks volumes about investor confidence. Yet, this breakthrough comes amid political upheaval in Japan. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's governing coalition has just lost control of the Upper House, marking the first time since 1955 that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lacks a majority in either chamber. Despite Ishiba's vow to stay on 'to see this through,' internal pressure is mounting, with whispers that he may resign by late August. The timing raises a delicate question: is this deal a lifeline for Ishiba, or a political anchor weighing him down? By lowering tariffs to 15% and landing a headline 90% profit allocation for the US, Trump has reshaped a looming trade war into something more akin to a managed retreat. It safeguards American manufacturing and investors while preserving Japan's access to critical export markets. Global equity markets reacted well, not because tariffs vanished, but because certainty arrived. They may still shudder slightly at 15%, but at least there's clarity on when they'll fire. Japan's economic engines, automakers, especially, can now plan with confidence instead of fear. Ishiba's weakened mandate complicates ratification of any deal. Without Upper House control, the LDP will face tussles within its own ranks. Should a backlash arise, especially over rice and farm exports, perhaps the most sensitive component, Tokyo could renege. Even Ishiba's own standing might simmer into a career-defining crisis. This deal proves tariffs aren't just economic weapons; they're tools of negotiation. The US wielded the threat of 25% duties to extract unprecedented investment pledges. It's a reminder: trade policy is foreign policy in disguise. When leverage is applied, balance sheets follow suit. So is the Japan deal a template for the region? A 15% benchmark now exists not just for Tokyo, but for Seoul, Taipei and beyond. Also, with gas deals lined up with Europe reported on the table next, this may mark a new strategic scaffold under Trump's trade architecture. The deal is significant and a far more balanced compromise than had been anticipated. Yet, it's also fragile, dependent on domestic support in Tokyo, and must be implemented quickly enough to meet an August 1 deadline. Without parliamentary control, Ishiba's political capital is limited; without political cover, the deal could stall or collapse. In the end, markets applauded the outcome—but politics in Japan will determine its longevity. The outcome isn't simply whether the deal is made, but whether it endures amid political turbulence. Last year, 15% tariffs were unthinkable. Today, we're living with the fallout and the opportunities. This isn't just a trade truce; it's a strategic pivot. However, pivots only matter if momentum holds. But in Tokyo, momentum just lost its majority.


Gulf Today
7 hours ago
- Business
- Gulf Today
Japan's Upper House poll spells trouble for PM
The Sunday poll to the Upper House of the Japanese Diet is projected to end as a rebuff to the ruling coalition of Liberal Democratic Party-Komeiti coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The ruling coalition is set to lose its majority in the Upper House according to media projections. The television channel NHK is predicting that the LDP coalition could win between 32 and 53 seats. Though the government of Ishiba does not have to quit, the prime minister will be under greater pressure than ever to resign, and the LDP will be forced to choose a new leader. Ishiba has acknowledged the setback but he has told a television news channel that the country is facing a crucial trade dialogue with the United States, and that the responsibility of his government is to focus on the bilateral talks, with the US under President Donald Trump, threatening to impose reciprocal tariffs between 10 per cent and 25 per cent. Like many other trading partners of the US, Japan too is worried because the American tariffs would hit the export-based economy harshly. Political commentators say that Ishiba referring to the trade talks is an indirect way of saying that he would not be stepping down. But it seems most likely that after a trade agreement is finalized with the US, Ishiba might be forced to step down. His public ratings have been very low because of rampant inflation and the decision of the government to impose a consumer tax. This has been vigorously opposed by all the opposition parties though any other party in office would face the same policy dilemma about inflation. Ishiba is proposing cash handouts to all, including foreigners residing in Japan. It is the far-right Sanseito which is billed to gain the most in these elections. It is projected to win 10 to 15 seats. It holds a single seat in the upper chamber now. The party with the slogan of 'Japanese First' was born on the YouTube in 2020 during the Covid pandemic. It has won three seats in the Lower House. Party leader Sohei Kamiya has tried to explain what is meant by 'Japanese First'. He told Nippon Television, 'The phrase Japanese First was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people's livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan.' But the anti-immigrant plank is part of the party's political doctrine. The foreigners in Japan form just 3 per cent of the population but their presence has become prominent because of the increase in tourism. The tourist arrivals in Japan this year had crossed the 20-million mark. Political experts feel that the opposition parties are only taking advantage of the stressful economic condition and that they have nothing different to offer to address the existing challenge. Political science professor Yu Uchiyama of the University of Tokyo said, 'The Ishiba administration has received a harsh verdict. It seems the public believed that the government and ruling parties failed to respond effectively to various issues, including rising prices. The opposition's call for a consumption tax cut appears to have appealed to voters more than the ruling party's proposed cash handouts.' And he pointed out, 'Moves to oust Ishiba may emerge. However, under these difficult circumstances, it will be hard for anyone – regardless of who becomes prime minister – to turn the situation around.' Japan has been experiencing trouble since the 1990s, starting with stagnation despite the Bank of Japan reducing interest rates to zero and below. It is only last year that the central bank has pushed the interest rate into positive territory.