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Business Standard
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Street Signs: Markets stretch their legs, May 12's phantom rally, and more
While secondary markets have wavered, primary markets have been largely dormant over the past three months, with only one initial public offering (IPO) from Ather Energy Listen to This Article Markets stretch their legs: The sprint isn't over yet The Nifty benchmark jumped more than 1,000 points (4.2 per cent) last week, gussied up by positive developments, including the Pakistan ceasefire 'understanding', renewed hope for a US trade deal, and expectations of further Reserve Bank of India interest rate cuts. The 50-share index closed at 25,020, positioning itself for a possible advance towards 25,500. Technical analysts see last week's gains and broad sector support as signs of a bullish trend. Key indicators include the relative strength index staying above 60 and India Vix dropping nearly 23 per cent to 16.55.
Business Times
12-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Off the beaten track: Investing in sports
[SINGAPORE] The financial world loves a good metaphor. Some popular ones include 'a rising tide lifts all ships', and 'don't try to catch a falling knife'. They are a pithy way to get one's point across but can sometimes fail to capture nuance. A rising tide might lift all ships, but some ships are more buoyant than others. The ongoing trade war and the expected economic downturn is one such example. Yes, there will be tariff-related pains, but there are spots of brightness. Markets are betting on uncertainty amid US President Donald Trump's volatile, solipsistic approach to policymaking. Gold surged in April as the Vix index, a measure of expected market volatility, saw its largest spike since the pandemic. Beyond looking at the winners and losers of this chaos, we also consider what can bulwark a portfolio. Rising valuations One such play is sport investment, which we called for at the start of 2025. This is a theme that proved compelling even before the recent tariff blues, with the soaring valuations of professional sports teams fuelled by a combination of scarcity and demand. Teams in a US major league such as the National Football League (NFL) or National Basketball Association (NBA) are highly coveted. The average value of US sports franchises has grown at an compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8 per cent between 2002 and 2023. Access to ownership of these teams has also become much easier in recent times due to the recent involvement of private equity (PE). While the major leagues were once closed to PE due to the latter's previous reputation for aggressive acquisition strategies and a short-term approach, things have evolved greatly since the 1980s. Today's PE funds have demonstrated the ability to add sustainable value via expertise and connections, and major league franchises have consequently become more receptive to PE investments. Major League Baseball (MLB) paved the way in 2019 by allowing up to 30 per cent of a franchise to be owned by funds. This was followed by the NBA, Major League Soccer, NHL, and most recently the NFL – the most valuable of all the major leagues, with over US$23 billion in revenue in 2024. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Source of resilience Far beyond the prestige of owning a professional sports team, many of the factors that make them attractive investments also hold up well during instability. Chiefly, it is the fact that broadcasting rights, a major source of revenue for professional sports, are contracted for the long term, thus guaranteeing cash flow. These rights, which are negotiated at the league level, are the bread and butter of the sports sector. US revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3 per cent to hit US$34.7 billion by 2027. The most salient example here is a suite of agreements that the NFL signed with media outlets including ESPN and Amazon, granting them media rights over 11 years in exchange for roughly US$110 billion – making it the largest media rights deal in US history. Not far behind are the deals that the NBA has inked with Disney, NBC, and Amazon Prime for 2025 to 2036, which amount to US$76 billion. Once the sole domain of cable television, sports broadcasting rights are increasingly being snapped up by the key entertainment players of today – Big Tech. With cash to spare and an ever-increasing share of audience, streaming platforms have more than quadrupled their spend on sports media rights since 2020, reaching close to US$10 billion in 2024. The fact that firms are even willing to sign such long-term deals highlights the fact that the sports sector enjoys a low-to-negative correlation with the wider markets. Anecdotally, fans do not stop supporting their favourite sports teams because the markets are down. Unlike the relatively dispassionate act of downtrading brand-name detergent for a generic label during a slowdown, emotions run high when it comes to sports – no riot has ever been started over detergent – influencing fan loyalty that adds buoyancy to the sector. While an economic slowdown will no doubt affect brand sponsorships and discretionary spending like ticket sales or concession purchases, the higher-end segment of the sports sector which includes luxury suites, VIP packages, or even the trading of sports teams among the ultra-high net worth, are likely to remain relatively inelastic. Diversity within a theme Exposure to the sports theme goes beyond the obvious. Many major-league teams own or are strongly affiliated with stadiums that double up as live entertainment venues. The New York Knicks (NBA) and New York Rangers (NHL), for example, are owned by the same company that owns and operates the Madison Square Garden Arena. Other similar associations include the Miami Dolphins (NFL) and Hard Rock Stadium, and the Boston Red Sox (MLB) and Fenway Park. Exposure to entertainment also promises resilience thanks to the emotional connection that people have to music. Festivals boomed across Europe in 2024 despite cost-of-living pressures, while Spotify saw strong subscriber growth in Q1 25 amid tariff turbulence. Particularly telling is the recent data – at a time when pandemic-era savings have long depleted – where 60 per cent of Coachella attendees financed their tickets using the festival's buy-now-pay-later scheme, proving the secular nature of the millennial and Gen-Z preference for experiences. From a holistic point of view, the sports sector also offers the opportunity for a barbell-type strategy. While contracted media rights, stadium revenue, and sponsorships provide income at varying levels of stability, areas like women's sports offer significant growth potential. Between 2019 and 2023, total attendance at the Fifa Women's World Cup rose 75 per cent, in stark contrast to the consolidated numbers that the men's Fifa World Cup has had since the 1990s. According to a Deloitte study, revenue from women's sports has grown exponentially, having passed the US$1 billion mark in 2024. If revenue for 2025 hits its US$2.35 billion, it spells a growth of about 340 per cent in just four years. Another high-growth area is in the realm of sports analytics. A combination of increasing AI-driven efficiency and growing demand from teams has seen the market surge. Mordor Intelligence projects sports analytics to grow at a CAGR of 30.04 per cent, increasing from US$2.87 billion in 2024 to US$13.93 billion in 2029. Nelson Mandela said, 'Sports has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire, the power to unite people in a way that little else does.' For many, sport is far more than entertainment, it is a way of life, and it should come as little surprise that such a force has profound implications for investing. The writer is chief investment officer, DBS Bank
Mint
08-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Caution rings among investors as India -Pak tensions escalate
Mumbai: Markets which had so far discounted a full-fledged war between India and Pakistan seem to have raised a note of caution in the last two-and-a-half hours of trade on Thursday, when news surfaced of India thwarting Pakistan's missile attack on 15 of its military installations on the intervening night of 7-8 May. The escalation followed multiple air strikes conducted by India on Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the wee hours of Wednesday to avenge the massacre of 26 tourists in Pahalgam by Pakistan-backed terrorists on 22 April. The aggregate Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) hit 1.89 on Thursday, the highest reading since the data has been collated on this variable from 1 April 2021, by analytics firm IndiaCharts. Simply put, this means for every 100 calls traded on Thursday, 189 puts changed hands. When more puts are traded relative to calls, it reflects heightened caution among investors and traders who demand more of them. While buyers wanted more of them, sellers refrained from selling them as many by end of the day, given that they would lose hugely if the Nifty falls on Friday or next week. Though volumes were high during the day, put sellers squared off their positions by the end of day, fearing volatility ahead. This became evident in the outstanding or open interest put-call ratio dipping to a provisional 0.86 on Thursday from 0.97 a day earlier-a clear sign of heightened volatility in the sessions ahead. Volumes refer to the number of contracts traded during the day and open interest refers to positions carried forward. While put-to-call volumes hit a multi-year high, the open interest PCR fell, reflecting fear among option sellers of carrying forward short put positions. If the Nifty falls in sessions ahead, the put sellers will be subjected to huge losses. That's why they sold fewer puts than calls by the end of day, a signal of heightened caution, said market analysts. 'While panic didn't strike stock market investors today (Thursday), following news reports of a rise in escalation between the two sides, they surely became more cautious, something which we didn't see since the Pahalgam attacks," said Rohit Srivastava, founder of IndiaCharts. The heightened caution was also reflected by fear gauge India Vix rising by 10.21% to 21.01, the highest since 7 April when Vix surged 65.69% to 22.79 in the wake of the global trade war intensifying. Vix rises when uncertainty increases and falls when investor confidence increases. A rise in Vix raises the price of puts relative to call options, while a fall means put prices rise less than calls. Weekly Nifty options now indicate a range of 2.17% up or down from 24300. The Nifty closed at 24,273.8 on Thursday, down 0.6%. Data indicates a range of 23,771-24,829 over the next few sessions, with a bias for the downside. Market expert Swarup Mohanty, vice chairman and chief executive officer of Mirae Asset Investment Managers, said his policy was to stay invested in Indian equities at all times and any drawdown is used to invest in 'quality'. Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd, expects any potential conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours to be limited and not prolonged despite the two sides climbing up the escalatory ladder on Wednesday and Thursday. He expects the markets to stabilise in light of a limited conflict.
Time of India
03-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Traders advised to stay cautious, prefer low-beta stocks as Nifty nears resistance
Despite geopolitical tensions, the markets closed the week positively, with the Nifty consolidating above its 200-DMA. Volatility increased, and the index saw a weekly gain. Caution is advised for the coming week, focusing on low-beta stocks and sectors poised for fresh moves, as the index faces key resistance levels. Relative Rotation Graphs indicate varied sector performance against the broader markets. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Popular in Markets Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) In the truncated week due to one trading holiday, the markets extended their gains and closed the week on a positive note. While remaining largely within a defined range, the Nifty continued consolidating above its 200-DMA while not adopting any sustainable directional bias. While the Index continued defending its key support levels, it oscillated in the range of 535.10 points. Volatility continued moving higher; the India Vix surged by 6.41% to 18.26 on a weekly basis. While staying positive, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 307.35 points (+1.28%).The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain ingrained in the market behavior; the rise in Vix shows increased hedging activity by the market is likely to see a stable start to the day; the levels of 24550 and 24780 are likely to act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 24050 and trading range is expected to stay wider than weekly RSI stands at 57.92. While the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period high, it remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the weekly MACD is bullish and trades above its signal line. The pattern analysis shows that on the daily chart, the Nifty crossed above the 200-DMA a few days ago; now, it is consolidating just above this important level. It has penetrated the 50-week MA placed at 23962, and this level is now expected to act as support in the event of any corrective retracement. Importantly, the Nifty has resisted the rising trendline pattern resistance near 24600. This trendline begins at 21130 levels and joins the subsequent rising coming week will require a more cautious approach as the markets not only deal with key resistance levels but also with geopolitical tensions that remain embedded in the backdrop. The investors will need to move away from the stocks that have risen over the past weeks and move to those sectors and stocks that are readying for a fresh move. While focusing more on low-beta stocks , the leverage, too, needs to be Index has risen over 2500 points over the past three weeks, and if it consolidates a bit, it should not come as a surprise for the market participants. A highly cautious and stock-specific approach is advised for the coming our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty FMCG index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The PSU Bank, Infrastructure, and Consumption Index are also inside the leading quadrant. The Metal, Commodities, Financial Services, and Nifty Bank Index are also inside this quadrant, but they are giving up on their relative these groups may continue to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening the Nifty IT index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the Midcap 100, Auto, Realty, and Pharma Indices are seen improving their relative momentum while being inside the lagging Nifty Media, PSE, and Energy Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to better their relative performance against the broader Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at
Economic Times
03-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Dalal Street Week Ahead: Traders advised to stay cautious, prefer low-beta stocks as Nifty nears resistance
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has kept its underlying bias intact; it is currently consolidating above the 200-DMA positioned at 24050. Synopsis Despite geopolitical tensions, the markets closed the week positively, with the Nifty consolidating above its 200-DMA. Volatility increased, and the index saw a weekly gain. Caution is advised for the coming week, focusing on low-beta stocks and sectors poised for fresh moves, as the index faces key resistance levels. Relative Rotation Graphs indicate varied sector performance against the broader markets. In the truncated week due to one trading holiday, the markets extended their gains and closed the week on a positive note. While remaining largely within a defined range, the Nifty continued consolidating above its 200-DMA while not adopting any sustainable directional bias. While the Index continued defending its key support levels, it oscillated in the range of 535.10 points. Volatility continued moving higher; the India Vix surged by 6.41% to 18.26 on a weekly basis. While staying positive, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 307.35 points (+1.28%). ADVERTISEMENT The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan remain ingrained in the market behavior; the rise in Vix shows increased hedging activity by the market participants. Monday is likely to see a stable start to the day; the levels of 24550 and 24780 are likely to act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 24050 and 23900. The trading range is expected to stay wider than weekly RSI stands at 57.92. While the RSI has formed a fresh 14-period high, it remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. ADVERTISEMENT The weekly MACD is bullish and trades above its signal line. The pattern analysis shows that on the daily chart, the Nifty crossed above the 200-DMA a few days ago; now, it is consolidating just above this important level. It has penetrated the 50-week MA placed at 23962, and this level is now expected to act as support in the event of any corrective retracement. Importantly, the Nifty has resisted the rising trendline pattern resistance near 24600. This trendline begins at 21130 levels and joins the subsequent rising coming week will require a more cautious approach as the markets not only deal with key resistance levels but also with geopolitical tensions that remain embedded in the backdrop. The investors will need to move away from the stocks that have risen over the past weeks and move to those sectors and stocks that are readying for a fresh move. While focusing more on low-beta stocks, the leverage, too, needs to be curtailed. ADVERTISEMENT The Index has risen over 2500 points over the past three weeks, and if it consolidates a bit, it should not come as a surprise for the market participants. A highly cautious and stock-specific approach is advised for the coming our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed. ADVERTISEMENT Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty FMCG index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The PSU Bank, Infrastructure, and Consumption Index are also inside the leading quadrant. The Metal, Commodities, Financial Services, and Nifty Bank Index are also inside this quadrant, but they are giving up on their relative momentum. However, these groups may continue to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. ADVERTISEMENT While the Nifty IT index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the Midcap 100, Auto, Realty, and Pharma Indices are seen improving their relative momentum while being inside the lagging Nifty Media, PSE, and Energy Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to better their relative performance against the broader Note: RRGTM charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of and and is based in Vadodara. He can be reached at (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. 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