Latest news with #WealthMillsSecurities
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
22-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Why Sensex fell 1000pts, Nifty below 24,550 on May 22? Check reasons here
Why are Sensex, Nifty falling today? Indian benchmark indices – Sensex and Nifty – declined in trade on Thursday, May 22, 2025, primarily due to the global market weakness and renewed concerns over US fiscal health. The BSE Sensex fell as much as 1.23 per cent or 1,004.95 points to 80,727.11. Similarly, the NSE Nifty50 dropped 1.22 per cent or 304.35 points to 24,509.10. Broader markets, too, slipped. As of 11:30 AM, the Nifty SmallCap 100 index was down 0.40 per cent, while the Nifty MidCap 100 index slipped 0.68 per cent. Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, explained that the market downturn is primarily driven by weakness in global markets. Added to this are concerns over US debt, which could have a ripple effect on other economies, and a natural correction after last month's rally—together forming the key triggers behind the current decline. Echoing a similar view, Ravi Singh, SVP of retail research at Religare Broking said Indian benchmark indices started the day on a negative note, as global investor confidence weakened due US fiscal uncertainties and rising Treasury yields. Additionally, the earnings of Indian companies present a mixed outlook for fiscal year 2026. Given this, here are the top reasons behind the stock market's fall: Weak global cues Asia-Pacific markets fell Thursday, tracking overnight declines on Wall Street as investors grew cautious over mounting US fiscal concerns. At last check, Japan's Nikkei was down over 0.7 per cent, while the Topix slipped 0.5 per cent. South Korea's Kospi dropped 1.1 per cent, and Australia's ASX 200 was down 0.4 per cent. On Wall Street, all three major indexes closed lower. Investors reacted negatively to a surge in Treasury yields, triggered by concerns that a new US budget bill would further stress the country's already major deficit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.91 per cent to 41,860.44. The S&P 500 shed 1.61 per cent to 5,844.61. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1.41 per cent to 18,872.64. The 30-year Treasury bond yield last traded near 5.09 per cent, hitting its highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, the 10-year benchmark yield stood at 4.59 per cent. US debt woes Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that the United States is running excessively large fiscal deficits and must urgently address its 'ever-increasing' debt burden. Her remarks were published in an interview with The Financial Times on Wednesday. Gopinath's comments came shortly after Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, citing the federal government's inability to manage its growing $36 trillion debt and persistently high deficits. READ MORE Most sectors fall Barring Nifty Media, all other sectoral indices were in the red zone (trading negatively). Nifty Auto was the top laggard, down 1.4 per cent, followed by Nifty FMCG and IT, which declined 1.27 per cent and 1.11 per cent, respectively. Other sectors including Pharma, PSU Banks, Private Banks, Consumer Durables, and Oil & Gas also posted losses in the range of 0.5 to 1 per cent. Technicals According to Singh, both the Nifty and Sensex witnessed selling pressure and are down nearly 1 per cent. Notably, the Nifty has begun trading below its strong support level of 24,800, which is now likely to act as a key resistance in the near-term. Jigar S Patel, senior manager of equity research at Anand Rathi explained that Nifty recently broke below the key support level of 24,800, following a double top formation on the hourly chart, accompanied by bearish divergence. This breakdown triggered a sharp pullback of nearly 200 points. 'Looking ahead, the 24,800–25,000 zone will act as a critical resistance, while support is now seen in the 24,600–24,500 range. A sustained move above or below these levels will determine the next directional bias.' Patel added.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
20-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Metal stocks in focus: What should investors do amid global uncertainty?
Metal stocks in focus: The base metal industry seems to be caught in a demand-supply mismatch, threatening the near-term growth outlook for related players. Besides, flip-flops in trade deal negotiations between the United States (US) and China are adding to the uncertainty, leaving analysts cautious about the metal sector. Analysts believe a troica of a supply surplus, weak demand, and strengthening of the US dollar may keep metal prices under pressure in the near-to-medium term, keeping stocks of related players sideways. "Overall, for medium-to-short-term metals stocks are going to be range-bond," said Kranti Bathini, director of equity strategy, WealthMills Securities. Notably, an increase in metal prices aids revenue per unit sold for companies extracting or selling those metals. Conversely, when metal prices fall, earnings drop and stock prices decline. Supply surplus According to International Copper Study Group (ICSG), an autonomous inter-governmental organisation which maintains database for copper prices, global copper market is projected to witness a global surplus of 289,000 tonnes in 2025 -- more than double the 138,000 tonnes recorded in 2024, and significantly higher than previous estimates of 194,000 tonnes. The growing surplus is attributed to increased mine supply and smelting capacity. On the flipside, the organisation expects uncertainties around international trade policy, especially between the US and China, to reduce copper demand. It expects refined copper consumption to grow 2.4 per cent in 2025, lower than the previous projection of 2.7 per cent and a growth of 2.8 per cent in 2024. Copper demand may further slow to 1.8 per cent in 2026—largely driven by a drop in Chinese usage, from 2 per cent this year to just 0.8 per cent next year, it forecasts. China: A key monitorable Analysts view the US-China trade, having a direct impact on China's metal demand, as the key monitorable for metal prices. China is a major global consumer of metals, particularly base metals. According to a note by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the recently announced US-China tariffs are less severe than expected, but present a notable hurdle to global trade. This, the brokerage believes, could potentially dampen demand for key raw materials used in metal production, capping any gains in metal prices. Last week, the US and China jointly declared a 90-day pause on a portion of their existing tariffs. China agreed to lower tariffs on US goods from 125 per cent to 10 per cent, and the US affirmed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent. Amid severe price volatility, Aluminium is quoting around $2,450.5 on the London Metal Exchange (LME), Copper was at $9,545, and Zinc at $2,658.5. On the bourses, however, the Nifty Metal index has rallied 10 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) since the announcement, as against the Nifty50's rise of 0.38 per cent. In May so far, the index has gained 7 per cent as against a 2.7-per cent rise in the benchmark index. "Demand trends in China, coupled with the renewed strength in the US dollar, may lead to short to medium term pressure on the metal prices," said Gaurang Shah, head investment strategist, Geojit Financial Services. Silver lining That said, the outlook for domestic metal stocks, analysts believe, remains positive from a long-term perspective. "Robust demand from infrastructure and real estate, back home, may offset weakness in global demand. These two sectors are the largest consumers of metals, both ferrous and non-ferrous," said Gaurang Shah of Geojit. He added: Some upward revision is expected for metal prices. More importantly, the input cost, which was an issue in earlier financial years, has now been lowered. So the profit margins could improve in the long-term. Investment strategy Shah recommends investors to bet on metal stocks from a long-term perspective. He remains upbeat on Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, Vedanta, GSPL, and NMDC. Bathini suggests 'buying metal stocks on dips'. He is positive on Hindalco, Vedanta, and JSW Steel.
Mint
07-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Market jitters send SGX Nifty south as India launches 'Operation Sindoor'
The Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open lower after India launched a retaliatory strike on terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir early Wednesday. The SGX Nifty fell 1.2% early Wednesday but pared some of its losses and was down just 0.2% later as investors priced in geopolitical risks. The SGX Nifty—Nifty 50 index futures traded on the Singapore Exchange—is widely seen as an early indicator of how Indian equities might perform at the opening bell. India early on Wednesday launched 'Operation Sindoor' targeting Pakistani terror sites, including some linked to the attack on tourists in Kashmir's Pahalgam area two weeks ago that killed 26 people. Although the market is bracing for the fallout of escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, historical data from the past two decades indicate India's equity markets typically rebound swiftly, often showing little lasting impact from such events in the long run. On 26 February 2019, when the Indian Air Force struck terror camps in Balakot, the Sensex fell 239 points and the Nifty 50 shed 44 points. But the markets bounced back the very next day, with the Sensex opening 165 points higher and closing flat. The Pulwama terror attack on 15 February 2019 that had triggered the Balakot strikes had a muted impact on the markets, with the benchmark indices edging down just 0.2% that day. In contrast, India's 2016 surgical strikes on Pakistani terror camps after the Uri attack had rattled investors, dragging the Sensex down by over 400 points and the Nifty 50 by 156 in a single session. According to Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities, Indian equities are likely to witness an initial knee-jerk reaction, followed by a gradual recovery. 'The key question is whether this turns into a full-fledged conflict or remains a limited defence strike,' he said, adding that a wider escalation could dent investor sentiment while a contained response may barely leave a mark on the markets. 'The geopolitical risk that was hanging over the Indian markets has crystallized today with the Indian strikes on POK and Pakistan-based terror camps,' market expert Ajay Bagga said, adding that the impact of such events on the markets tends to be sharp but short-lived. 'The future impact on the market will depend on whether this strike remains contained to today or if it expands.' Bagga, however, warned that the Indian markets would open on Wednesday with a negative gap down. He sees elevated geopolitical risk and expects India to see some more selling. Aniruddha Sarkar, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Quest Investment Advisors, said that despite geopolitical tensions the past two weeks following the Pahalgam terror attack, foreign inflows have continued, reflecting confidence in India's economic resilience. Moody's said in a recent report titled 'Sovereign–South Asia' that India's economic fundamentals remained solid, underpinned by robust public investment and resilient private consumption. 'With FII (foreign institutional investors) flows continuing to be strong on the back of trade deals with the US in advanced stages and with India-UK FTA (free trade agreement) already signed, I see Indian rupee remaining strong in the near term,' said Sarkar. 'Beyond the war rhetoric, investors should stay focused on corporate earnings trajectories, which ultimately determine stock prices,' he said, adding that recent market corrections, coupled with encouraging quarterly results, presented attractive investment opportunities. The rupee is holding steady at around 85, supported by a weakening dollar index at a three-month low. With foreign investors recently turning net buyers, Bathini of WealthMills Securities said the trajectory of the rupee would depend on how the India-Pakistan tension evolves.
News18
23-04-2025
- Business
- News18
Pahalgam Terror Attack: Analysts Warn Of Near-Term Market Volatility Amid Retaliation Risks
Last Updated: Pahalgam Terror Attack: Analysts caution that the market's calm may be tested depending on how the government responds to the incident A day after the tragic terror attack in Pahalgam, Indian equity markets demonstrated remarkable resilience, extending their winning streak for the seventh consecutive session on April 23. Investors appeared to shrug off immediate concerns, with the broader rally from April lows showing no signs of slowing. However, analysts caution that the market's calm may be tested depending on how the government responds to the incident, with any retaliatory measures potentially sparking short-term volatility. Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, said that while a potential military response from India could lead to brief market disruptions, a broader trend reversal is unlikely unless the conflict escalates dramatically. 'Unless India undertakes strong military action against Pakistan, any market reaction may be limited. We've already seen equity markets absorb shocks from major global events like the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-China tariff standoff during President Trump's tenure," Bolinjkar noted. Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, echoed this sentiment. He pointed out that investors are now focused on how the government navigates the crisis—whether it opts for diplomatic measures, precision strikes, or a broader military approach. Bathini added that the economic context today is vastly different from the time of the 1999 Kargil War. 'India's GDP has expanded more than tenfold over the past two decades. The country is now in a stronger economic position to absorb geopolitical shocks," he said. Veteran market analyst Ajay Bagga, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), cautioned that while markets may remain cautious in the near term, past retaliatory actions by India have usually resulted in only temporary pullbacks, followed by quick recoveries. Looking at past data, Indian markets have typically shown resilience in the face of similar crises. On February 26, 2019, when the Indian Air Force launched air strikes in Balakot, the Sensex dropped by 239 points, and the Nifty slipped 44 points. Yet, by the next trading session, the market had largely stabilized, with the Sensex opening higher and closing flat. After the 2019 Pulwama attack, the market's reaction was muted, registering a modest 0.2 percent decline on February 15. However, the 2016 surgical strikes in response to the Uri attack triggered a sharper fall, with the Sensex losing over 400 points and the Nifty down 156 points. Interestingly, during the 1999 Kargil conflict—a full-scale military standoff—the Sensex and Nifty both surged approximately 33 percent over the three-month period. The Sensex gained 1,115 points, while the Nifty rose by 319 points. The 2008 Mumbai terror attacks also defied expectations. Despite the magnitude of the crisis, the Sensex climbed nearly 400 points over two trading days, and the Nifty advanced by 100 points. The Pahalgam attack, the deadliest in Jammu & Kashmir since the 2019 Pulwama bombing, has been widely condemned by global leaders, civil society, and Indian citizens. The Resistance Front (TRF), a group linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), has claimed responsibility. However, the Indian government has yet to release an official statement confirming the involvement of any specific group or nation. While the national mood remains somber, markets appear to be taking a measured view, awaiting clarity on the government's next steps. Whether this cautious optimism persists will largely depend on how geopolitical tensions unfold in the coming days. First Published:
