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Wales Online
9 hours ago
- Climate
- Wales Online
Five-week long heatwaves and 46.6C highs as Met Office predicts scorching decade
Our community members are treated to special offers, promotions and adverts from us and our partners. You can check out at any time. More info Heatwaves lasting as long as 39 days are being forecasted for parts of the UK in the coming years. Temperatures soaring above 40C will become more likely, with a possible maximum of 46.6C, as climate change tightens its grip, the Met Office has warned. Its scientists have warned that, in future, two thirds of British summers could be assessed as being in a heatwave, using current classifications. Spells of hot weather in which temperatures exceed 40C could run for four successive days. Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes based on the weather in 2023, shows the risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing. A study published in Weather Journal shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times greater than it was in the 1960s. 'From less than 0.2% in the 1960s, it has increased more than six-fold since the 1980s and almost trebled since 2000,' said researchers. 'With ongoing climate change, it is likely to continue increasing in upcoming years, meaning that the return time for 40°C is expected to shorten further.' Previous estimates of the pace of change are now thought to have been underestimated, they added. Temperatures hit 40C in the UK for the first time on record amid the hot summer of 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19. It outstripped the previous top temperature of 38.7°C in Cambridge, set just three years earlier, leaving meterologists surprised by the wide margin of escalation. Not so long ago, a low probability of reaching 40C was estimated for the 2020s, with a return time of 100–300 years. Now – based on current conditions – such temperatures are expected to occur once every 24 years. This rate is expected to rise as the climate warms. Join the North Wales Live Whatsapp community now (Image: Met Office) The 'unprecedented' temperatures seen in the UK in 2022 formed part of Europe's warmest summer on record. There were significant impacts, including wildfires, disruptions to transport and power systems and increased mortality. More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the heatwave's four-day peak, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022. The study's lead author Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, said awareness of the warming trend will help preparedness in the health and in other sectors – not just in the decades to come but 'now and in the near term'. She said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. "We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.' (Image: Met Office) The summer of 1976 saw 18 days exceed the temperature threshold that defines a heatwave. Based on current projections, future heatwaves are forecasted to last more than a month (39 days). The Met Office study, 'Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures', drew its conclusions from data in south east England, where the heatwave threshold is 28C on three successive days. In Wales, the threshold temperature is lower, at 25C, suggesting that longer spells of above-average temperatures can be expected here too. The same model runs also indicated that 63 days each summer (in southeast England) will reach at least 28C, with temperatures hitting 35C on 20 days – four times the current rate. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox Study co-author Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office Science Fellow, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England. 'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.' Find the weather forecast where you live
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Is this week's UK heatwave linked to climate change?
As the UK prepares for a heatwave this week, there is a 50/50 chance of a day where temperatures reach 40C within the next 12 years, the Met Office has predicted. It said the prospect of exceeding that figure is now more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, as a result of climate change. The UK had its first recorded temperature above that threshold on 19 July 2022, when it was 40.3C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire — the hottest day in British history. And while temperatures will not get that high this week, the Met Office has said a heatwave is likely in many parts of England, with a maximum of 33C forecast in the east on Sunday. Met Office spokesperson Grahame Madge told Yahoo News that warm air driven from southern Europe later this week will make it very warm in the UK. 'This week the UK will experience rising temperatures," he said. "Later in the week, a weather pattern develops which will encourage a flow of air from further south in Europe to bring much warmer conditions to the UK, with values expected to reach 32C on Saturday.' The Met Office said much of the UK will reach the threshold for a heatwave either on Friday or Saturday. To qualify as a heatwave, there must be three continuous days of temperatures at a certain level, which varies by area in the UK. Madge said: 'A heatwave is a period of three days or more where the maximum temperature reaches or exceeds a specific threshold. 'This threshold is 25C for northern and western parts of the UK, rising to 28C for Greater London and parts of the Home Counties.' The Met Office predicted that the UK is likely to experience a hotter than usual summer in its most recent three-month outlook, after this year's spring was the sunniest and among the driest and warmest on record. Four of the five warmest summers on record for England have occurred since 2003, while all of the top 10 warmest years according to mean temperature have occurred since the year 2000, with five in the most recent decade up to 2024. Records extending back to 1890 show that the mean temperature (the average of the maximum and minimum temperature across every weather station through the year) has risen from just over 7.5C in 1890 to more than 9.5C today. Climate change, caused by greenhouse gas emissions, has made heatwaves 30 times more likely in the UK, the Met Office has said. Over time, this will make UK winters warmer and wetter, while summers will become hotter and drier, although wetter summers will be seen sometimes. By the year 2050, heatwaves similar to the one seen in 2018 will happen every other year. Met Office scientist Emily Carlisle said earlier this month: "The UK's climate continues to change. "The data clearly shows that recent decades have been warmer, sunnier, and often drier than the 20th century average, although natural variation will continue to play a role in the UK's weather.' In its study on 40C temperatures, published in Weather Journal on Wednesday, the Met Office warned that even higher temperatures of 45C or more "may be possible' in today's climate, while heatwaves could go on for a month or more. The study said the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and has almost trebled since the year 2000. Temperatures several degrees higher than the July 2022 record – up to a maximum of 46.6C – are also 'plausible'. Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office and lead author of the study, said: 'Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50/50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. 'We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.' The Met Office predicts that by the year 2070, summers will be between 1C and 6C warmer and up to 60% drier, and winters will also be up to 4.5C warmer and up to 30% wetter.
North Wales Live
10 hours ago
- Climate
- North Wales Live
Five-week long heatwaves and 46.6C highs as Met Office predicts scorching decade
Heatwaves lasting as long as 39 days are being forecasted for parts of the UK in the coming years. Temperatures soaring above 40C will become more likely, with a possible maximum of 46.6C, as climate change tightens its grip, the Met Office has warned. Its scientists have warned that, in future, two thirds of British summers could be assessed as being in a heatwave, using current classifications. Spells of hot weather in which temperatures exceed 40C could run for four successive days. Analysis by the Met Office, using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes based on the weather in 2023, shows the risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing. A study published in Weather Journal shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times greater than it was in the 1960s. 'From less than 0.2% in the 1960s, it has increased more than six-fold since the 1980s and almost trebled since 2000,' said researchers. 'With ongoing climate change, it is likely to continue increasing in upcoming years, meaning that the return time for 40°C is expected to shorten further.' Previous estimates of the pace of change are now thought to have been underestimated, they added. Temperatures hit 40C in the UK for the first time on record amid the hot summer of 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19. It outstripped the previous top temperature of 38.7°C in Cambridge, set just three years earlier, leaving meterologists surprised by the wide margin of escalation. Not so long ago, a low probability of reaching 40C was estimated for the 2020s, with a return time of 100–300 years. Now – based on current conditions – such temperatures are expected to occur once every 24 years. This rate is expected to rise as the climate warms. The 'unprecedented' temperatures seen in the UK in 2022 formed part of Europe's warmest summer on record. There were significant impacts, including wildfires, disruptions to transport and power systems and increased mortality. More than 1,000 excess deaths among older people were recorded around the heatwave's four-day peak, with more than 3,000 heat-related deaths in England over summer 2022. The study's lead author Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, said awareness of the warming trend will help preparedness in the health and in other sectors – not just in the decades to come but 'now and in the near term'. She said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. "We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.' The summer of 1976 saw 18 days exceed the temperature threshold that defines a heatwave. Based on current projections, future heatwaves are forecasted to last more than a month (39 days). The Met Office study, 'Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures', drew its conclusions from data in south east England, where the heatwave threshold is 28C on three successive days. In Wales, the threshold temperature is lower, at 25C, suggesting that longer spells of above-average temperatures can be expected here too. The same model runs also indicated that 63 days each summer (in southeast England) will reach at least 28C, with temperatures hitting 35C on 20 days – four times the current rate. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox Study co-author Dr Nick Dunstone, a Met Office Science Fellow, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England. 'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.'
Times
14 hours ago
- Climate
- Times
UK weather: Heatwaves above 40C are the future, says Met Office
Cities and towns across the UK face a future of scorching summer days and temperatures exceeding 45C thanks to climate change, according to the Met Office. With parts of Britain set to experience a heatwave peaking at 33C this weekend, a study has found far hotter temperatures could be in store. Writing in the journal Weather, a team of Met Office scientists used computer models to simulate how likely the country is to see a repeat of the unprecedented 40C recorded three years ago. They found a 50 per cent chance of 40C occurring again in the next 12 years. The likelihood has increased massively in the past few decades due to global warming. In the 1960s the chance of a year with temperatures hitting 40C was vanishingly small, at 0.2 per cent. By 2023, it had risen to 4.2 per cent. The likelihood will increase further in coming years as carbon emissions continue to drive up global temperatures, the Met Office experts said. 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising,' Gillian Kay, lead author of the study, said. At the very upper end, the team were able to simulate much higher temperatures under today's level of climate change. 'We find that temperatures several degrees above those recorded in July 2022 are plausible, with a simulated maximum of 46.6°C,' they wrote. However, the team said they could not put a likelihood on the maximum temperature being reached. Britain can expect now expect 63 hot days a year, up from 39 three decades ago FINNBARR WEBSTER/GETTY IMAGES 'A day with a temperature as high as 46.6C would be exceedingly rare, but the important message is that we should be preparing for temperatures in excess of 40C, as these are possible in today's climate,' Kay said. • Is this the warmest spring for second year running? The infamously hot and dry summer of 1976 had the longest continuous heatwave on record, at 18 days above 28C. However, the Met team's model was able to simulate the possibility of a continuous heatwave of 39 days in today's climate. The scientists also projected the frequency and duration of future heatwaves in southeast England, as the area most frequently experiences the country's highest summer temperatures. The maximum number of hot days in the region is now estimated at 63 a year, up from an observed maximum of 39 in 1995. Temperatures this Sunday are expected to reach 33C, nearing the June record of 35.6C set in 1976. High pressure and rising temperatures have led to yellow heat-health alerts being issued for most of England from midday on Wednesday to Sunday evening. A yellow alert indicates preparations should be made for more vulnerable people, including the elderly.
The Independent
17 hours ago
- Climate
- The Independent
Months-long 40C heatwaves could become the new normal in the UK, Met Office warns
Temperatures in the UK could soon soar to 40C and beyond, new analysis from the Met Office has found, as Britain continues to experience sweltering heat. The record for the hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK remains 40.3C in summer 2022, in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. But heats of 45C or more 'may be possible' in today's climate, the forecaster says. Experts from the office have given a 50:50 chance that a heatwave of this unprecedented level could occur in the UK within the next 12 years. And alongside the incredible heat, the weather phenomenon could also last for months at a time. The Met Office reached the findings by using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions. Their study, published in Weather Journal, shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and has almost trebled since the year 2000. Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the office and lead author of the study, said: 'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. 'Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. 'We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years. 'We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today's climate.' Looking at heatwaves, the Met Office study found that 'much more severe' extremes could occur in the current climate. Their climate model shows that up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C in south-east England, with more than a month in continuous heatwave. Up to 12 consecutive days above 35C is also possible, the study says. The ongoing 'mini-heatwave' in the UK could reach highs of 32C this week as parts of the country grapple with drought and heat-related health issues. The heatwave of 2022 contributed to the deaths of 3,000 people, it was found, most over 65. Met Office experts said the findings showed the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme heat. Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: 'The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England. 'Our study finds that in today's climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. 'These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.'
