Latest news with #WoodMackenzie
Al Arabiya
a day ago
- Business
- Al Arabiya
Is US oil dominance ending? Wood Mackenzie VP Robert Clark on the future of shale
The US has dominated the oil and gas sector in the last decade. But how long could this dominance last, given lower oil prices today, and what would a waning American oil dominance mean for oil markets globally in the future? Moreover, in the longer term, could the US continue to dominate the energy sector as the transition to clean energy quickens again, or will the Chinese competition prove too much for America in the future? Robert Clark, the Vice President of Upstream Research at Wood Mackenzie, joins Al Arabiya Business' Naser ElTibi from Texas to discuss his latest report on the topic titled 'tough on the top.'
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Asia's jet fuel exports to US West Coast to hit 1-year high in May
Asia's jet fuel exports to the US West Coast are expected to hit at least a one-year high in May, according to shiptracking data and three trade sources, as refinery outages in California boosted prices and import demand. The exports for May, mostly from South Korea, are pegged at nearly 600,000 metric tons (4.28 million barrels), according to shiptracking data from Kpler and estimates from two of the sources. The exports were last at similar levels in February of last year, the Kpler data showed. "The main reason behind the increasing volume of imports into the USWC region is primarily associated with unexpected outages in local refineries," said consultancy Wood Mackenzie's research analyst Rodrigo Jacob. The surge in imports comes at the start of the American summer travel season, potentially impacting travel costs and highlighting the vulnerabilities of US West Coast supply. Motorist association AAA said near-record numbers of domestic airline passengers were expected to have flown over the May 22-26 Memorial Day holiday period this year. This year's forecast represents a 2 per cent increase over last year and is just shy of 2005's record of 3.64 million passengers, AAA said. Outages at refineries in California owned by PBF Energy and Valero Energy since early this year have limited overall US West Coast fuel production. "These outages combined with a decline in local inventories, drove local prices higher and triggered increased interest from traders in sourcing cargoes for import, predominantly from North Asia," Jacob said. ARBITRAGE The strength in US jet fuel prices against Asia's opened the arbitrage window last month, traders said. The spread averaged more than $17 a barrel in April, Reuters calculations showed, while the average cost of chartering a medium-range vessel carrying 300,000 barrels of jet fuel for the roughly 30-day voyage was $5.50 a barrel, ship broking data showed, providing a good margin for Asian sellers. In the near term, strong jet fuel supply from China could depress benchmark prices in Singapore and keep arbitrage export trade to the US open, said Matias Togni, an analyst at market insights provider Next Barrel. China's jet fuel exports hit a 13-month high in April, official customs data showed, while industry estimates for May volumes were above 2 million tons. "China prioritised jet fuel above other products in their export quotas, flooding Singapore storage tanks and forcing South Korea to redirect their flows towards the US West Coast," Togni said. However, US West Coast refinery use rates rose to a two-month high of 82.6 per cent in the week ended on May 16, US government data showed, potentially limiting import demand for June. Still, the permanent closure of two refineries on the US West Coast from end-2025 could lift the region's jet fuel imports by up to 100,000 tons per month, analysts said.
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Asia jet fuel exports to US West Coast to hit 1-year high in May
SINGAPORE/NEW YORK, May 29 (Reuters) - Asia's jet fuel exports to the U.S. West Coast are expected to hit at least a one-year high in May, according to shiptracking data and three trade sources, as refinery outages in California boosted prices and import demand. The exports for May, mostly from South Korea, are pegged at nearly 600,000 metric tons (4.28 million barrels), according to shiptracking data from Kpler and estimates from two of the sources. The exports were last at similar levels in February of last year, the Kpler data showed. "The main reason behind the increasing volume of imports into the USWC region is primarily associated with unexpected outages in local refineries," said consultancy Wood Mackenzie's research analyst Rodrigo Jacob. The surge in imports comes at the start of the American summer travel season, potentially impacting travel costs and highlighting the vulnerabilities of U.S. West Coast supply. Motorist association AAA said near-record numbers of domestic airline passengers were expected to have flown over the May 22-26 Memorial Day holiday period this year. This year's forecast represents a 2% increase over last year and is just shy of 2005's record of 3.64 million passengers, AAA said. Outages at refineries in California owned by PBF Energy (PBF.N), opens new tab and Valero Energy (VLO.N), opens new tab since early this year have limited overall U.S. West Coast fuel production. "These outages combined with a decline in local inventories, drove local prices higher and triggered increased interest from traders in sourcing cargoes for import, predominantly from North Asia," Jacob said. The strength in U.S. jet fuel prices against Asia's opened the arbitrage window last month, traders said. The spread averaged more than $17 a barrel in April, Reuters calculations showed, while the average cost of chartering a medium-range vessel carrying 300,000 barrels of jet fuel for the roughly 30-day voyage was $5.50 a barrel, ship broking data showed, providing a good margin for Asian sellers. In the near term, strong jet fuel supply from China could depress benchmark prices in Singapore and keep arbitrage export trade to the U.S. open, said Matias Togni, an analyst at market insights provider Next Barrel. China's jet fuel exports hit a 13-month high in April, official customs data showed, while industry estimates for May volumes were above 2 million tons. "China prioritised jet fuel above other products in their export quotas, flooding Singapore storage tanks and forcing South Korea to redirect their flows towards the U.S. West Coast," Togni said. However, U.S. West Coast refinery use rates rose to a two-month high of 82.6% in the week ended on May 16, U.S. government data showed, potentially limiting import demand for June. Still, the permanent closure of two refineries on the U.S. West Coast from end-2025 could lift the region's jet fuel imports by up to 100,000 tons per month, analysts said.
E&E News
4 days ago
- Business
- E&E News
‘Death knell' for ‘green' hydrogen?
One of the largest casualties of Republicans' megabill may be the build-out of a U.S. 'green' hydrogen industry, with implications for how factories, vehicles and power plants operate in the decades ahead. The sweeping domestic policy bill that passed the House last week would phase out a tax credit for green hydrogen and gut incentives for renewable projects that would produce the fuel. If those provisions survive the Senate, nearly all announced U.S. green hydrogen projects would lose their federal financing, setting the stage for lucrative incentives to mainly benefit hydrogen projects tied to fossil fuels, analysts say. 'We won't see a lot happen on green hydrogen' if the language becomes law, said Hector Arreola, a hydrogen analyst at Wood Mackenzie. Research firm BloombergNEF similarly called the bill a 'death knell' for green hydrogen. Advertisement It's a sharp turn for a fuel that was a Biden administration priority, viewed as a way to slash emissions from heavy industries like steel that have been challenging to decarbonize.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Brent at $50, LNG at $7, 4 mt aluminium demand lost—Tariff tensions could reshape energy and metal markets
New Delhi: Global trade tensions could significantly impact energy markets with oil demand varying by up to 6.9 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2030, depending on the severity of tariffs and geopolitical conditions, Wood Mackenzie said in a report. The energy consultancy outlined three scenarios—Trade Truce, Trade Tensions and Trade War—in its latest report titled Trading cases: Tariff scenarios for taxing times. These scenarios examine the potential outcomes for global GDP, oil and gas prices, metals demand and power sector investments. 'In the Trade Truce scenario, oil demand reaches 108 million b/d by 2030, with Brent averaging US$74/bbl,' the report said. Under the Trade War scenario , oil demand declines after 2026 and Brent crude drops to US$50/bbl. Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President, Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Falling oil demand results in the global composite gross refining margin collapsing to break-even levels, creating pressure for the rationalisation of weaker sites, particularly in Europe.' In the global LNG market, the Trade War scenario could intensify the projected oversupply. LNG prices are projected to fall from US$11.2/mmbtu in 2024 to US$7.2/mmbtu by 2030 in the Trade Truce case. Prices may fall further under a Trade War due to reduced Chinese demand and tariffs diverting US cargoes. 'Although tariffs pose downside risks to global LNG supply, it is possible there will be more investments in US LNG,' said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President of Gas and LNG Research. The power sector could also be adversely affected by trade uncertainty, particularly in the development of battery storage and renewable technologies. 'Unpredictable project costs are disrupting long-term strategies, particularly in battery storage due to China's supply chain dominance,' said Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman, Power and Renewables. For metals and mining, aluminium demand may decline by nearly 4 million tonnes and copper by 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 under the Trade War scenario, the report noted. Julian Kettle, Vice Chair, Metals and Mining at Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Even in a Trade Truce scenario, we foresee supply issues, while a tariff war could wipe out all projected growth through 2026.' The report concludes that despite recent trade agreements, significant risks remain. Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman, Energy, Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Lower economic growth will curb energy demand, prices and investment, while higher import prices will raise costs in sectors from battery storage to LNG.'
