Latest news with #WorldEconomicOutlook
Fibre2Fashion
17 hours ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
ILO cuts projection in 2025 global employment growth from 1.7% to 1.5%
The International Labour Organisation (ILO) recently revised its global employment forecast for 2025, projecting the creation of 53 million jobs instead of 60 million estimated earlier. This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent this year. ILO recently revised its global employment forecast for 2025, projecting the creation of 53 million jobs instead of 60 million estimated earlier, translating into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 per cent to 1.5 per cent. Nearly 84 million jobs across 71 countries tied to US consumer demand are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions, ILO said. The drop—the equivalent of around 7 million fewer additional jobs—reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected at 2.8 per cent—down from a previous projection of 3.2 per cent. ILO's latest employment estimates, issued in its new World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update, are based on economic growth projections from the recently released International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook. In addition, the ILO estimates that close to 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand. These jobs—and the incomes they support—are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions, an ILO release said. The Asia-Pacific region is where most of these jobs—56 million—are concentrated. Canada and Mexico, however, have the highest share of jobs—17.1 per cent—that are exposed. 'We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated it would. Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labour markets worldwide,' said ILO director general Gilbert F Houngbo. The report also highlights troubling trends in income distribution. The labour income share—which is the proportion of GDP going to workers—fell globally from 53 per cent in 2014 to 52.4 per cent in 2024. Africa and the Americas saw the largest declines. Had this share remained unchanged, labour income globally would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, or $290 more per worker in constant purchasing power terms. This erosion in the share of global income going to workers puts upward pressure on inequality and highlights a disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation, ILO noted. The report points to a shift in employment towards high-skilled jobs. Women are leading this trend. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of women employed in high-skilled occupations rose from 21.2 to 23.2 per cent, while the proportion of men in high-skilled occupations was around 18 per cent in 2023. Yet occupational segregation persists, with women underrepresented in sectors such as construction and overrepresented in clerical and caregiving roles. And while educational attainment continues to rise worldwide, the labour market remains characterised by significant educational mismatches, ILO said. The report also addresses the effects of new technologies on the world of work. It finds that nearly one in four workers may find their jobs transformed by generative artificial intelligence (AI). Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Mint
19 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
The week in charts: Monsoon cheer, India's GDP rank, IIP slump
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has marginally raised its monsoon forecast for 2025, while April's industrial output growth slowed to 2.7%. Meanwhile, data continues to contradict recent claims by NITI Aayog's CEO that India is already the world's fourth-largest economy. Monsoon marvel The IMD now expects rainfall during the June–September monsoon season to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), up from its April forecast of 105%. Rainfall in June alone is projected at 108% of LPA. Read this | Why a bountiful monsoon matters more this year, in five charts Rainfall is also likely to be above normal in the Monsoon Core Zone — India's key rain-fed agricultural belt. With the rains arriving early in several states, the outlook is positive for kharif crop output. Rank ruckus NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam recently claimed that India had already overtaken Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy and that the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed it. However, the IMF's latest data from April 2025 World Economic Outlook shows India's GDP for fiscal year 2025 at $3.909 trillion, below Japan's $4.026 trillion for the calendar year 2024, keeping India in the fifth place. Read this | Beyond the buzz: Has India really surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy? India is projected to surpass Japan only in FY26, with $4.187 trillion versus Japan's $4.186 trillion. Share sell-off $1.35 billion: That's the value of shares IndiGo co-founder and promoter Rakesh Gangwal sold in a block deal on Tuesday, Mint reported. Gangwal and his Chinkerpoo Family Trust offloaded 22.1 million shares, or a 5.7% stake, at ₹5,230.5 each in InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, which operates IndiGo. Following a settlement with co-founder Rahul Bhatia, Gangwal has been gradually reducing his stake in the airline. He sold a 5.83% stake on 29 August 2024, after offloading an identical stake on 11 April 2024. Output slump India's industrial output growth slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, marking an eight-month low, mainly due to a sharp decline in electricity and mining production. Manufacturing growth also moderated to 3.4%, though a sharp rise in capital goods output (20.3%) signalled positive investment momentum. While consumer durables held steady, non-durables remained in contraction. With lower temperatures reducing power demand and base effects turning unfavourable, factory output in May 2025 is expected to dip below 2%, a note by India Ratings and Research said. Staff squeeze For the first time in five years, Tata Motors' workforce shrank in FY25. It was down 3% to 58,442 employees amid falling demand for vehicles. This is in sharp contrast to the previous fiscal year when the workforce saw a 6% increase, a Mint report said. The decline was mainly in non-managerial staff, which fell to 45,486 from 47,495 the previous year. Meanwhile, median salary hikes for senior executives slowed to 3% from 15% the previous year. However, the company said drop in employee count reflected year-end adjustments rather than business conditions. Vodafone's woes ₹6,000 crore: That's the value of bank guarantees submitted by Vodafone Idea to the government, a Mint report said. Following the Supreme Court's rejection of adjusted gross revenue (AGR)-related petitions on 19 May, Vodafone informed the court that it may not survive the fiscal year without loans tied to AGR relief. Lenders now await the telecom department's decision on these guarantees. Invoking them would worsen Vodafone's financial crisis. While the government has the power to do so, analysts believe it may refrain, prioritising sector stability over immediate recovery. Trade pacts Global trade dynamics are shifting from multilateralism to country-to-country ties, with regional trade agreements (RTAs) becoming more prominent. As of May 2025, there are 375 RTAs in force globally, up sharply over the past two decades. With 19 RTAs, India ranks at the 11th place, behind China, reflecting its increasing trade engagement, an analysis by shows. Developed countries lead in agreements that often go beyond tariffs. India's RTAs, like the one with the UAE, reflect this evolving trend toward deeper and cross-regional trade partnerships. Chart of the week: Silent strain Marriages in India drastically alter women's daily lives, burdening them with household chores, a Mint analysis of pan-India Time Use Survey showed. Post-marriage, women spend 27% of their day on unpaid domestic duties, up from 6% when unmarried, while men's share rises only marginally from 1% to 3%. Follow our data stories on the 'In Charts" and 'Plain Facts" pages on the Mint website.
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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Datanomics: India closes in on Japan to be fourth-largest economy this year
India is likely to overtake Germany in 2028 as the third largest economy in the world, according to projections by the IMF Shikha Chaturvedi New Delhi Listen to This Article In 2024, the Indian economy stood moderately behind the world's fourth-largest economy — Japan — by $11.8 billion. A few years ago, India overtook the UK to become the fifth largest, and is now well on its way to rise to the fourth spot in the list of the top 10 largest economies in the world by overtaking Japan. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April, had said that India is expected to be the
Hans India
a day ago
- Business
- Hans India
India is Not Yet the Fourth-Largest or a $4-Trillion Economy; NITI Aayog CEO's IMF Claim Misleading
NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam sparked excitement recently by claiming that India is already the world's fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data during a press briefing on May 24, 2025. Speaking after the NITI Aayog's 10th governing council meeting themed 'Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat', he expressed confidence that India would become the third-largest economy within 2.5 to 3 years, with only the US, China, and Germany ahead. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several prominent personalities, including Amitabh Bachchan and Anand Mahindra, echoed these claims, sharing graphics attributed to the IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook report that appeared to show India overtaking Japan to become the fourth-largest economy. Fact Check: What Does the IMF Data Actually Say? A detailed examination of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on April 22, 2025, reveals no such official ranking stating India is the fourth-largest economy or that it has surpassed Japan. The 190-page report does not include a ranking chart listing countries by GDP size as circulated on social media. The IMF database provides GDP figures at current prices in US dollars, including estimates for future years. According to this data: India's GDP for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) was $3.91 trillion. India is projected to reach $4.187 trillion by the end of FY26 (April 2025 - March 2026). Japan's GDP in the calendar year 2024 was $4.03 trillion. Japan's GDP is estimated to be $4.186 trillion at the end of 2025. This indicates that India has not yet overtaken Japan, although projections suggest it could do so by the end of FY26. Currently, India ranks fifth in GDP size, behind the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. Clarifications from Experts Other experts associated with NITI Aayog, such as Arvind Virmani, have stressed that India becoming the fourth-largest economy is a forecast for the end of 2025, not a current fact. Virmani noted the importance of waiting for full-year GDP data before making definitive claims. The IMF itself compiles data based on government statistics and provides projections; it does not independently collect raw economic data. Why GDP Ranking Isn't the Full Picture Even if India surpasses Japan in GDP terms, economists caution against using this metric alone to gauge development or progress. GDP figures do not reflect per capita income, income inequality, or employment levels—key factors in assessing overall economic wellbeing. Conclusion While India's economic growth is strong and the country is on track to climb the global GDP rankings, the claim by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam that India is already the fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy is premature and misleading when citing IMF data. India remains the fifth-largest economy as per the latest official figures, with projections indicating it may become fourth by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The trade war will cost 7 million jobs in 2025, according to a U.N. report. Here's the breakdown
The International Labor Organization (ILO), an agency of the United Nations, has downgraded its global employment forecast for 2025, saying 'the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated.' Spicy AI-generated TACO memes are taking over social media because 'Trump always chickens out' Lego's first book nook is an addictively interactive diorama Forget quiet quitting: I'm using 'loud living' to redefine workplace boundaries In its latest edition of its World Employment and Social Outlook Trends report, the ILO forecast that 7 million fewer jobs would be created in 2025 globally, for a total of 53 million jobs, down from 60 million—based on economic growth projections from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook. The numbers translate into slower overall employment growth across the globe in 2025, down to 1.5% from 1.7%; and lower expected GDP growth of 2.8%, down from previous forecasts of 3.2%. 'Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labor markets worldwide,' ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo said in a statement. The report found the United States was a driving factor in worldwide employment growth, with 84 million jobs across 71 countries 'directly or indirectly tied to U.S. consumer demand, now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions.' Of those 84 million jobs, 56 million are located in the Asia-Pacific region. However, Canada and Mexico have the highest share of jobs (17.1%) that are exposed to trade disruption. The report does make some recommendations: Houngbo said countries and employers can make a difference 'by strengthening social protection, investing in skills development, promoting social dialogue, and building inclusive labor markets to ensure that technological change benefits all.' This post originally appeared at to get the Fast Company newsletter:
