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Stick With The Major Trends
Stick With The Major Trends

Forbes

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Forbes

Stick With The Major Trends

As the stock market was going through a series of sharp declines and market uncertainty, I always recommend that you out at longer-term data. In my analytical routine, I start each weekend by looking at the weekly charts before I even look at the daily charts. Often the weekly charts are weak enough so I will not even look at the daily charts. Each month I look at the monthly charts and technical studies to see if there are any changes from the prior month. This includes not only a change in the technical studies but also where there has been a move above or below a key level of support or resistance. In my experience using different methodologies to determine support or resistance you can often zone in on the most important levels. These methods include chart analysis, moving averages, Fibonacci analysis, starc bands, and pivot analysis. In past articles, I have pointed out that one of the lesser-used methods is pivot analysis. The results from yearly, quarterly, and monthly pivot analyses often identify support and resistance levels that are not easily identified by other methods of analysis. In basic pivot analysis, a stock, market average, or ETF is positive if it is trading above its pivot level. In a positive-trending market, the next level to watch is the first resistance level above the pivot or R1. Conversely, if a market is below its pivot then the focus should be on the first support level below the pivot or S1. In February I discussed yearly pivots and suggested that they be used to determine which ETFs might be the new leaders once the market correction was over. To monitor the trend I look for whether a market average or ETF has a weekly close above or below the yearly pivot. A close above indicates a positive trend but depending on the market outlook I may wait for the 2nd weekly close to confirm the signal. As of the end of February, four of the selected ETFs Technology Select (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) were above their yearly pivots. As the market declined in March their status changed. QQQ Weekly With Yearly Pivots Tom Aspray - This weekly chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) goes back to 2022 and has the yearly pivot (solid purple) as well as the lighter R1 and R2 above the pivot. The S1 and S2 are included below the pivot. In January 2023 QQQ rallied up to test the yearly pivot at $302.07 but did not close above it. On March 20th QQQ closed at $306.95 and well above the pivot. The R1 at $354.09 was reached in July which was derived from the yearly price ranges in 2022. Six weeks later QQQ dropped to a low of $281.01 and then closed at $301.05. The R1 at $354.07 was exceeded in July 2023 as QQQ had a high of$383.59. The correction ended in October 2023 and QQQ started 2024 by opening at $396.98 which was well above the 2024 pivot at $357.87. The July high was $501.26 which just fell short of the R2 at $510.90. The R2 was exceeded in December with a high of $537.48. On the first day of 2025 QQQ opened at $512.59 and then closed the week at $517.81 which was above the 2025 pivot at $487.57. Then on March 10th QQQ closed at $478.95 so the trend based on the yearly pivot analysis turned negative, point 2. QQQ surged two weeks later to a high of $493.62 but then closed back below the pivot. The eventual low of $402.39 was well below the S1 at $427.66. Then on April 28th QQQ closed at $488.83 so the yearly trend turned back to positive. This was confirmed the next week as QQQ had a high this past week of $519.38. On a move above the early 2025 high at $540.01, the R1 at $572.72 is the next target. ETFs & Yearly Pivots Tom Aspray - The current table has prices taken just before the close on May 30th as those ETFs highlighted in pink are still below their yearly pivots. The other ETFs are positive and will stay positive as long as they do not have a weekly close below their yearly pivots. In addition, I have included the current monthly and weekly DTS signals from the T&J Watchlists. The DTS was created by my colleague Jerry A, and their multiple time frame analysis is quite helpful. There were new monthly positive DTS signals for QQQ and XLK as the WKS is also positive. The monthly DTS are still negative for SPY, XLY, XLV, XOP, XLE, and XLB. This week there were new negative weekly DTS for XLV and XLE. For the market tracking ETFs, like SPY and QQQ, the positions I recommend are determined by my analysis of the advance/decline lines. NYSE Composite With A/D Lines Tom Aspray - TThe daily A/D lines had broken out to the upside by April 29 (see chart) as they had moved above their EMAs. The NYSE Composite was up 1.3% this week which is a solid gain amid more tariff distractions and earnings from the market-leading Nvidea (NVDA). It was lower Friday over China news but up 1.9% for the week. The NYSE dropped briefly below its yearly S1 before closing back above its yearly pivot on April 21st. The S&P 500 A/D line held above its weekly WMA during the market decline and one week after the close above the yearly pivot the A/D line overcame the resistance (line b) and then made an all-time high. This projected a new high for the S&P 500. Just two weeks later the NYSE All A/D line also made a new high as it started to lead the NYSE higher. This favors a move above the resistance at line a, with the next upside target at 20,903 and the R1. It is important to remember that the yearly pivot data stays the same for the entire year. If these ETFs should correct as we head into the summer the yearly pivots should act as support. New monthly pivots are in effect on Monday so on new positions use them as well as the S1 and R1 levels to manage your trades. If you want to learn more about yearly pivots this link may be helpful.

Conor McManus: Tyrone showed how new rules give forwards license to dictate terms of football
Conor McManus: Tyrone showed how new rules give forwards license to dictate terms of football

Irish Times

time27-05-2025

  • Sport
  • Irish Times

Conor McManus: Tyrone showed how new rules give forwards license to dictate terms of football

I had a bit of hands-on experience with the new rules last weekend. Having swapped intercounty fields for the analyst's desk, I had only my second outing this season with Clontibret. I've played two second-halves so far and on Sunday, we beat Truagh. It was enjoyable. Two things struck me: first, forwards now dictate the game more than backs and, secondly, the extent to which two-pointers keep teams in the contest cannot be overstated. These are noticeable when you're watching matches but also when you're playing. As an inside forward, you had to get used to defenders trying to run you up the field to get you away from the front line. That's completely gone now. A corner back used to just take off and give you a decision to make. You'd be asking yourself the question: Do I stay here even though he could do some damage up the far end? More often than not, you had to follow him or organise somebody else to take care of him while you picked up the spare man. READ MORE That's gone now. I'm not saying you won't be dropping back at all. There were times on Sunday when I was back doing my bit, but more often than not, if you're a permanent inside forward, you're an attacker. Your job now is to stay up, win ball and get scores, although I haven't managed a two-pointer so far in my two half-hours. We were six points down at half-time at the weekend. With 10 or 12 minutes to go we were seven points down and we won by 3-17 to 2-17. Six- or seven-point leads aren't safe anymore, which is great. Two kicks of a ball and you're back to a one-score game. You could see the impact of this in Ballybofey on Saturday. Michael Murphy was single-handedly keeping Donegal in it against Tyrone . The pressure was incredible. If he missed opportunity, it would have had a deflating effect but – almost as expected – he delivered and kept the match going. He came out to catch kick-outs, was organising everyone and bombing frees over from 50 or 55 metres. Of the Donegal starting team, only four of them scored. One of them was a point from Ryan McHugh and another one was two points from Ciarán Thompson. Fifteen came between Michael Langan (0-7) and Michael Murphy (0-8). Michael Murphy was again influential for Donegal against Tyrone, kicking eight points, but his team fell narrowly short. Photograph: John McVitty/Inpho Compare that with Tyrone. Five of their starting six forwards scored. That's a far better spread of scorers, which shows you it was more of a team performance from Tyrone. It was a statement win for them and one I was waiting for. I would even say I was half-expecting it, knowing Malachy O'Rourke, his management team and the quality of the work they would have been doing. They have been building towards this since the league campaign that saw them relegated with seven points, which was unfortunate. They were okay against Cavan and although they didn't scale any great heights in the Ulster semi-final against Armagh, they should have won after leading so late in the game. It left four weeks to work on fine-tuning their performance. There had been a bug in the camp before the Ulster semi-final, so there was precious time for that to clear up. Mattie Donnelly was back and had a major influence. Looking back on their game against Armagh, Tyrone would have been fairly disappointed with how they played defensively Pádraig Hampsey got his first start in a while and even though he and Brian Kennedy had to go off injured, it was good for them to get the game time. It was also good for morale that they overcame moments of adversity in the game. The four-week break is like a mini pre-season for players. It means going back to scratch and players having a clean slate. It feels like an opportunity – a bit like a new season. You focus on what you have learned from the previous games and what you have done wrong, where you see gaps or where you identify potential improvements. Looking back on their game against Armagh, Tyrone would have been fairly disappointed with how they played defensively, how open they were and how easily Armagh got through them. I am fairly confident that this would have been a strong feature of Tyrone's focus. You could see it in how well they defended last Saturday against Donegal. They stripped the ball and turned over possession several times in the game, both first half and second half. They broke with pace and countered Donegal quite well. Did the demands of the Ulster final have an impact on Donegal? If it was a week's gap, you would say definitely, but they had a fortnight to get over it. [ Kevin McStay to step back from Mayo for 'personal health issues' Opens in new window ] [ Tyrone take 'great step forward' as they burst Donegal's bubble in Ballybofey Opens in new window ] That's the physical side, though. Emotionally as much as anything else, that Ulster final was such a mentally draining game. Donegal were seven up, Armagh were seven down. Donegal go forward again, go six up again. Armagh reel them in and it goes to extra time. It looks like Armagh are going to win it, then Donegal do. It's difficult to hit reset after that. I don't think Donegal need to panic. They were close enough to winning and were able to get an hour into Eoghán Bán Gallagher. They also had to play without one of their most important performers, goalkeeper Shaun Patton. Replacement Gavin Mulreany did quite well in several respects, including on kickouts. However, I thought that for the first goal, Patton would probably have come more forcefully off his line to clear the ball. Tyrone's Darren McCurry celebrates a score as the Red Hand County got the better of Donegal in last Saturday's All-Ireland series clash at Ballybofey. Photograph: John McVitty/Inpho The second goal, although not a rip-roaring finish, was impressively put together – a lot of quick hands and quick movement off the shoulder and then over the top. It was really well-worked. It's sobering for Jim McGuinness to lose his Ballybofey record but he has plenty of time for recovery and problem solving. The review won't be pretty but they know they can improve. Tyrone know that Armagh won the All-Ireland by putting together a good run of form in the All-Ireland series and Malachy O'Rourke has now positioned them for a serious challenge.

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