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Chinese Cars, Brazil Style
Chinese Cars, Brazil Style

New York Times

time13 hours ago

  • Automotive
  • New York Times

Chinese Cars, Brazil Style

Hello from your former newsletter anchor. It's been a minute. I want to tell you about what I learned in Brazil. For more than a century, cars, powered by gasoline, have been central to American power in the world. But the race to build the cars of the future is beginning to turn to China's favor. Those cars are powered by batteries. It's part of one of the most consequential shifts happening in the world today. So I went to Brazil earlier this year to find out more. Why Brazil? Because Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, and the world's sixth largest car market. Brazilians love cars and for many years, American automakers made cars in Brazil. Ford once built a Model T in its Brazilian factory. European car companies set up factories too, followed later by Japanese and Korean brands. And the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, wants to bring down climate emissions from its transportation sector. Over the last few years, Chinese carmakers had been shipping lots of cars to Brazil. They are cheaper than many American and European models, they drive well and they are popular with Brazilians. All of that alarmed legacy carmakers in Brazil and, in turn, the Brazilian government. The government wanted these battery-powered cars of the future, but it also wanted to have a piece of the value chain. So Brazil announced a new policy: If you want access to our market, build cars here. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.

Huge change coming to Aussie roads
Huge change coming to Aussie roads

News.com.au

time14 hours ago

  • Automotive
  • News.com.au

Huge change coming to Aussie roads

A new report forecasts that China will become Australia's largest source of vehicle imports within the next decade. The report, commissioned by the Australian Automotive Dealer Association and prepared by the Centre for International Economics (CIE), projects that by 2035, 43 per cent of all vehicles imported into Australia will be manufactured in China, up from 15 per cent in 2024 and virtually zero in 2020. MASSIVE SHIFT Australia's automotive landscape has dramatically shifted over the past decade with closures from multiple local manufacturing operations including Ford (2016), Holden (2017) and Toyota (2017). Since then, Australia has relied entirely on imports to meet demand for new cars, with 1.2 million vehicles sold annually – all sourced from overseas. China already dominates the local electric vehicle (EV) market, accounting for 65 per cent of Australia's Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) imports last year. But the report reveals China's growth is not confined to BEVs, but exports of internal combustion engine (ICE) and diesel vehicles, especially light commercial vehicles and SUVs, have also risen. The report states China's rapid rise is a combination of several factors, including lower production cost, rising consumer demand for low-emission vehicles, and the Federal Government's New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), which came into effect on the 1st of July. The policy penalises high-emission vehicles and incentivises clear alternatives, and is expected to reshape the types of cars entering the Australian market. While most automotive exporting countries have seen rising manufacturing costs since 2017, vehicle prices from China have remained flat or declined. The Chinese government has also invested heavily in battery and EV technology, which has placed China at the forefront of manufacturing. Australia's appetite for Chinese brands is also growing, with emerging automakers like BYD, Zeekr, XPeng, GWM, and Chery gaining market share quickly. The AADA report also highlights China's rise as part of a broader transformation in Australia's car market, driven by the end of local manufacturing, changing consumer preferences and global trade trends. Previous import booms were led by Japan in the 1990s, South Korea in the early 2000s and Thailand in the late 2000s. But China's current growth is expected to outpace them all.

The big problem for Tesla that isn't getting much attention
The big problem for Tesla that isn't getting much attention

CNN

timea day ago

  • Automotive
  • CNN

The big problem for Tesla that isn't getting much attention

For years, Tesla has earned billions of dollars from its competitors just for selling electric vehicles. But that windfall is about to go away, just when the company may need it the most. Regulatory credit sales have been a huge source of revenue for the automaker, which currently faces a sales and profit slump. Legacy automakers purchase credits from Tesla to keep selling gas-burning cars that would otherwise violate emission regulations and cost them a fine. But the Republican tax and spending bill passed earlier this month removes that financial penalty for automakers, meaning they will no longer have any incentive to purchase these regulatory credits from Tesla. The loss of such credits hasn't gotten nearly as much attention as the blowback to Tesla CEO Elon Musk's alliance, then battle, with President Donald Trump or the elimination of the $7,500 tax credits for EV buyers. But removing those regulatory credits from Tesla's balance sheet could spell disaster for the company's financial future, perhaps even resulting in ongoing losses. According to a recent note from analysts at William Blair and Co., the automakers 'that fail to meet standards no longer incur fines, eliminating market demand for Tesla's credits.' The analysts expect Tesla's regulatory credit revenue to fall by 75% next year and disappear completely by 2027. That will 'result in a direct hit to profitability (for Tesla),' the note said. Tesla did not respond to a CNN's request for comment on the change in regulatory credit sales. Until now, the US — like many governments — has had a credit system to incentivize auto companies to meet environmental regulations. It awarded credits to auto companies that met emissions standards and imposed financial penalties on those that didn't. For automakers that primarily sell gasoline-powered cars, they could buy credits from automakers that sell low-emission vehicles, like Tesla, to avoid fines they otherwise would have to pay. For Tesla, regulatory credit sales alone have brought in $10.6 billion since 2019. There are some quarters, like earlier this year, where credit sales exceeded the company's total net income — meaning the company would have lost money without them. And early in its history, when Tesla was still ramping up production of electric cars, the regulatory credits were crucial for keeping the lights on during a severe cash crunch. 'These regulatory credit sales are the reason that Tesla exists today,' said analyst Gordon Johnson, one of the harshest critics of Tesla on Wall Street. For most of the last four years, the company has reported net income beyond its regulatory credit sales, even as the credits themselves brought in billions of dollars. But its profit margins have been getting thinner after peaking in early 2022, making the credit sales more important. But the loss of the credit sales is just one of many problems at Tesla. The company reported a record drop in sales in its last two quarters due to increased competition for EVs and backlash from some buyers to CEO Elon Musk's political activities. Tesla reported a plunge in profitability in the first quarter of this year and is forecast to report another steep drop in second-quarter results due on Wednesday. The credits sales might not end immediately if legacy automakers honor their long-term contracts with Tesla. But Johnson says that some automakers may try to get out of those credit purchase contracts early. He predicts that Tesla's credit sales could vanish as quickly as the third quarter of this year or the start of 2026. That, he said, could cause Tesla to start reporting quarterly net losses once again. 'Without regulatory credit sales, Tesla loses money in its core business,' he said.

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