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RBA meeting: Why economists and the major banks are predicting a rate cut
RBA meeting: Why economists and the major banks are predicting a rate cut

SBS Australia

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • SBS Australia

RBA meeting: Why economists and the major banks are predicting a rate cut

With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) set to announce the new cash rate target on Tuesday, many economists and the big four banks are anticipating a rate cut of 0.25 per cent. It could be welcome news for mortgage holders, who were left in limbo after the RBA kept rates on hold at 3.85 per cent at its last meeting. So why are economists saying a reduction to 3.6 per cent is a done deal, and how much could you save? 'No reason to wait' David Bassanese, chief economist at fund management firm Betashares, told SBS News he is predicting a rate cut at the RBA's meeting. He said he would be "staggered" if the RBA does not cut the rate, "given signs of a softening labour market and a good Q1 CPI [quarter one consumer price index] report". "I expected them to hold off on the cutting rate in July, but I see no reason to wait now," Bassanese said. After previous rate cuts, the big four banks have passed on reduced rates for mortgage holders with variable loans. Financial comparison site Canstar predicted an owner-occupier on a $500,000 loan could save around $75 per month following a 0.25 per cent cut. The larger the loan, the greater the savings. An owner-occupier on a $500,000 loan could save around $75 per month following a 0.25 per cent rate cut, according to Canstar. Source: SBS News Devika Shivadekar, an economist at financial services firm RSM Australia, told SBS News an official rate cut this week should create optimism, with further relief expected in the coming months. "Last month's quarterly Consumer Price Index print likely provided the RBA with some comfort leading into this week's meeting, and we expect to see the cash rate cut by 25 per cent to 3.6 per cent," she said. The 'big four' banks are all predicting a rate cut on Tuesday, with Westpac predicting a total of four cuts this financial cycle, in August and November, and again in February and May, taking the cash rate to 2.85 per cent. The 'big four' banks are all predicting a rate cut on Tuesday. Source: SBS News Commonwealth Bank and ANZ are estimating a 0.25 per cent cut in August and another in November, taking the cash rate to 3.35 per cent, while NAB is forecasting 0.25 per cent cuts in August and November, and another in February, taking the cash rate to 3.10 per cent. What does it mean for businesses? Shivadekar said cash rate decisions can have a profound impact on businesses, with large investments and other buying decisions linked closely to RBA movements. "Uncertainty over US tariffs has left Australian companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, battered and bruised in recent months. "Data on business performance is mixed, with larger players faring better in this environment than their smaller peers. Overall, though, the global volatility we've seen in the second quarter has weighed on investment decisions."

NAB knocks 0.25 off fixed mortgages ahead of ‘near-certainty' RBA cut
NAB knocks 0.25 off fixed mortgages ahead of ‘near-certainty' RBA cut

News.com.au

time6 days ago

  • Business
  • News.com.au

NAB knocks 0.25 off fixed mortgages ahead of ‘near-certainty' RBA cut

One of Australia's big four banks has jumped early and lowered fixed mortgage rates before a widely anticipated interest rate cut next week. On Thursday, NAB announced anyone willing to lock in their mortgage rate for one or two years can get a 0.25 per cent reduction on the previous rate. The bank has knocked 0.1 percentage points off the interest rate for three-to-five-year fixed mortgages. NAB's reductions apply to investment properties as well. The Reserve Bank shocked onlookers last month by keeping the cash rate on hold. The board meets again next week, and the sharemarket is betting it's more likely than not rates will be doubly slashed, from 3.85 per cent to 3.35 per cent. A 0.25 point reduction saves someone $90 a month on repayments, if they are an owner-occupier, paying principal and interest, with a $600,000 debt and 25 years left on the loan. A mortgage holder owing $1m would save $150-a-month with a quarter-point cut. A host of smaller lenders moved quicker than the big four in cutting rate offers. Multiple lenders outside the big four have their lowest offerings at 4.94 per cent for two and three years. 'While an RBA cut looks to be a near-certainty, if you've got a mortgage, don't bank on any extra cash until it lands in your bank account,' Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall Tindall said this week. 'The RBA has shown it doesn't dance to the beat of market expectations – it's the one steering the ship. 'Banks are also at the helm of your mortgage and while we expect the big banks to step up to the plate and pass the next cut on in full, there's no guarantee every lender will do this.' Australia's big four banks – ANZ, Commonwealth, NAB and Westpac – are all tipping a 0.25 point cut from the RBA next week.

‘Not feasible': Bank axes more branches
‘Not feasible': Bank axes more branches

Yahoo

time08-07-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

‘Not feasible': Bank axes more branches

The bank running Australia's third-largest network of branches will shut 10 branches in the coming months. Bendigo Bank will axe nine regional branches and one in Melbourne from early August to late October. The bank said it was 'proud of its regional heritage' but pointed to fewer people using the branches and higher business costs as reasons to shut the doors. In February, the federal government struck a deal with the big four banks (ANZ, NAB, Commonwealth and Westpac) to not shut any more regional branches until mid-2027, as about one-third of regional outlets have closed since 2017. 'To preserve what makes our bank unique, we must balance our physical network presence with the need to continue investing in the changing preferences of our 2.7 million customers,' Bendigo Bank chief executive Richard Fennell said. Bendigo ran the most branches of any bank in the country per customer, Mr Fennell said, plus the second-largest regional network and third-largest overall network across the country. 'We are proud of our regional heritage and in order to continue delivering for our customers and communities, we must ensure our branches are adequately supported and resourced,' he said. Branches at Malop St in Geelong, the South Melbourne branch and Kings Meadows in Tasmania will shut on August 1. Korumburra in South Gippsland will shut on the last Friday in August. Bannockburn and Yarram in regional Victoria will shut in late September, as will Malanda and Tully North in Queensland, and Queenstown in Tasmania. Ballarat Central will be the final of the 10 to shut, on October 31. The bank said it was 'actively exploring' opportunities to find its workers new jobs within the company. The closure leaves Korumburra without a physical bank in a town of just less than 5000 people; residents will have to drive 15km to the next town to see and speak to a teller. It is a similar story for Bannockburn's 6400 residents, but they will need to drive more than 20km into Geelong. Malanda residents are being presented with a similar scenario, with the closest bank branch in the next town 20km away. Bendigo Bank said customers could still bank at any one of 3500 Australia Post stores. Federal Liberal MP Mary Aldred represents the seat of Monash and the town of Korumburra. 'For many of my constituents, including older Australians, people with a disability and small business owners, face-to-face banking remains essential,' she wrote in a letter to the Bendigo Bank boss. 'Travelling to another town to access a branch is just not feasible for many of your customers.' Ms Aldred urged the bank boss to reconsider the closure and talk to Korumburra residents about the effects. 'The branch is the last remaining bank in Korumburra. The closure will leave the Korumburra community … (with) serious disadvantages for residents and businesses alike,' she said. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data

Morning Mail: Sean ‘Diddy' Combs guilty on two of five charges, banks ignoring interest calls, pear dinkum giant
Morning Mail: Sean ‘Diddy' Combs guilty on two of five charges, banks ignoring interest calls, pear dinkum giant

The Guardian

time02-07-2025

  • Business
  • The Guardian

Morning Mail: Sean ‘Diddy' Combs guilty on two of five charges, banks ignoring interest calls, pear dinkum giant

Morning everyone. Although he could still face years in prison for two charges of transportation to engage in prostitution, Sean 'Diddy' Combs fell to his knees in relief and his supporters celebrated wildly outside after a jury in New York found the music mogul not guilty of the more serious charges of sex trafficking and racketeering. A Guardian Australia analysis shows the big four banks are not making it easy for customers to get bonus interest despite watchdog recommendations, auditors have condemned the navy's handling of bribery allegations, and a Victorian city is bidding to be the 'capital of big things'. Storm eases | The damaging weather system that has brought widespread havoc to much of coastal New South Wales is expected to ease today. But heavy conditions will continue along parts of the coast and thousands remain without power. 'Factional hacks' | Newly elected Liberal senator Jess Collins has hit out at 'factional hacks' in the party's NSW branch, insisting a push for quotas to boost female representation is the wrong approach for trying to beat Labor at the next election. All at sea | Defence officials failed to properly document and investigate bribery allegations made against navy contractor officials, a scathing audit report on the multibillion-dollar commissioning and maintenance of two military ships has found. Bank blank | More than 18 months after regulatory advice that Australia's major banks should help customers qualify for bonus interest rates on savings products, several of the recommendations have not been implemented by the big four, an analysis by Guardian Australia has found. Pear share | The regional Victorian city of Shepparton is in the running to be the 'capital of big things' with a $1.3m plan to build a giant pear to go alongside the world's largest Murray cod. Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' | The House of Representatives is at a standstill as Republican leaders continue to try to rally holdouts against Donald Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending legislation, after it cleared the Senate with the narrowest of margins. And after last-minute negotiations, the US and Vietnam struck a trade agreement that sets 20% tariffs on many of the south-east Asian country's exports. Exclusive | The Israeli military used a 230kg bomb – a powerful and indiscriminate weapon that generates a massive blast wave and scatters shrapnel over a wide area – when it attacked a target in a crowded beachfront cafe in Gaza on Monday, evidence seen by the Guardian has revealed. Combs guilty | A New York Jury has found Sean 'Diddy' Combs guilty of two counts of engaging women in prostitution but was cleared of the more serious offences of sex trafficking and racketeering, after a closely watched seven-week federal trial marked by emotional and graphic testimony. Outside the court, supporters danced and celebrated the verdict. Here are some key moments from the court drama. Reeves' tears | The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, appeared to be left in tears at prime minister's questions as the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, attacked the government over its U-turn on welfare cuts. That climbdown leaves the government with its authority shredded and a £5bn hole to plug. Drought threat | As Europe's heatwave moved eastwards, a new report says that drought is pushing tens of millions of people around the world to the edge of starvation. Bougainville's rocky path to independence Nour Haydar speaks to Ben Doherty about the road to independence for Australia's Pacific neighbour and the risk of repeating mistakes from the past. Sorry your browser does not support audio - but you can download here and listen $ It's been miserable being a fan of North Melbourne in recent years. But the AFL club's centenary celebrations are a chance for everyone involved to show that their investment in top-end picks and highly talented youth might just be about to pay off, writes Martin Pegan. After years of fighting with her sister, Lucinda Price writes today about how it took their father's cancer diagnosis for them 'to form a truce after 26 years of full-pelt warfare … Our hatred just silently slipped away. I guess I felt as though my parents finally deserved to experience having children who didn't hate each other'. Sign up to Morning Mail Our Australian morning briefing breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Rugby union | Queensland Reds put up a good fight but the British & Irish Lions had too much class as the second tour match ended in a 52-12 defeat for the local side in Brisbane last night. Tennis | British No 1 Emma Raducanu set up a huge third-round match against Aryna Sabalenka after beating 2023 champion Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon, while defending men's champion Carlos Alcaraz breezed through against plucky Ollie Tarvet. British tennis player Jodie Burrage has said she has had to stop herself looking at her phone due to online abuse – some from gamblers, some from about her appearance – after her first-round Wimbledon exit. Cricket | India's captain, Shubman Gill, made an unbeaten century as he dug in to steady his team and hold off England's bowlers on the first day of the second test at Edgbaston. Women's football | Euro 2025 hosts Switzerland were defeated by Norway 2-1 this morning after Finland secured a narrow win against 10-player Iceland in the opening match. And Matildas star Ellie Carpenter has joined Sam Kerr at Chelsea with a big move from Lyon. The Australian claims the public service has grown to a record size under the Albanese government. The management of Victoria's water would be reshaped to enshrine traditional owners as rights holders under a proposal from the truth-telling inquiry, the Age reports. The Courier Mail looks at how the Brisbane-based beauty product business Lucas Papaw went from near-bust to boom in five years. And residents on the south coast of NSW might not have seen many in the past couple of rain-drenched days but this season's whale sightings are at a record high, the Mercury reports. Economy | New vehicle sales figures for June released at 11am and international trade data from the ABS at 11.30am. Brisbane | The Queensland deputy premier, Jarrod Bleijie, gives an Olympics update. If you would like to receive this Morning Mail update to your email inbox every weekday, sign up here, or finish your day with our Afternoon Update newsletter. You can follow the latest in US politics by signing up for This Week in Trumpland. And finally, here are the Guardian's crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword

Millions of Australians could miss out on refunds from financial misconduct
Millions of Australians could miss out on refunds from financial misconduct

ABC News

time10-06-2025

  • Business
  • ABC News

Millions of Australians could miss out on refunds from financial misconduct

Millions of Australians sold dud insurance with their home loans, car loans or credit cards may be entitled to compensation but a looming deadline of June 30 could see many miss out. For decades, the big four banks, other lenders and insurers raked in billions from these policies, while paying out as little as 11 cents in the dollar, rendering these financial products effectively junk insurance. The products, known as Consumer Credit Insurance and other add-on insurance products, became a symbol of the financial misconduct exposed during the banking royal commission. They were routinely bundled with credit cards, personal loans, home loans and car loans. Sometimes with the false claim that the loan wouldn't be approved if the customer didn't take up the insurance. The products were marketed as protection in the event of an accident, illness or job loss. But in too many cases customers didn't understand what they were paying for, didn't need the cover, or were ineligible to claim. Some were even signed up without their knowledge or consent. The real scandal isn't just that these junk insurance policies were sold but that the industry got away with exploiting customers for so long. ASIC launched an investigation into the products in 2011, issuing warnings and recommendations that went largely ignored as evidenced by the continued mis-selling of the products over the next few years. It wasn't until the fallout from the royal commission's final report in 2019 that things started to change. To put the magnitude of the problem into context, over a 29-year period, it is estimated that more than 10 million add-on insurance products were sold in Australia, valued at billions of dollars, some believe it could be as high as $10 billion. To date, claims have been refunded through a combination of class actions, internal dispute resolutions with the institutions and complaints lodged with the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA). According to ASIC, insurers have repaid over $270 million to customers who were mis-sold add-on car-yard insurance and CCI. It means billions of dollars is potentially still unclaimed by millions of customers. But that is now at risk. AFCA, the industry-funded external dispute resolution service, has imposed a final deadline of June for customers who were sold these products before July 2019 to lodge a claim. Originally set for February 2025, the cut-off was extended earlier this year. The deadline is based on AFCA's position that the banking royal commission, which handed down its final report in February 2019, should have alerted consumers to the widespread problems with add-on insurance. As a result, AFCA argues that most people should have been aware or reasonably aware of the issue from that point. The six-year limit reflects AFCA's standard rule for complaints: that they must be lodged within six years of the consumer becoming aware or reasonably expected to have become aware that they suffered a loss. In this case, AFCA is effectively using the royal commission as the trigger for starting that six-year clock. With less than three weeks to go before the deadline, there are growing fears that thousands, possibly millions of Australians with legitimate claims may miss out because they don't know they are eligible. A similar insurance scandal rocked Britain, where more than 60 million add-on insurance policies were sold between 1990 and 2010. Like in Australia they were bundled with loans, credit cards or mortgages, and sold to people who didn't need or couldn't use them. It culminated in financial institutions being forced to repay an eye-watering £48 billion ($99.5 billion) to customers, making it the largest insurance scandal and redress scheme in UK history. The product at the centre of it all, Payment Protection Insurance (PPI), became a household term for financial misconduct. The UK's financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), ran a high-profile public awareness campaign that included TV ads, urging people to check if they were eligible for refunds. The FCA eventually set a final deadline of August 2019, nearly a decade after the scandal came to light. In 2017, two years before the final cut-off, the UK regulator launched an additional national campaign to raise awareness about the looming deadline for claims. The campaign featured a robotic model of Arnold Schwarzenegger's Terminator head urging people to act, with the now-famous line: "Make a decision. Do it now." The ad, funded by 18 of the worst-offending banks, building societies and credit card providers, ran across TV, radio and digital platforms, which helped get the message out. In stark contrast, Australia's deadline has arrived with little fanfare. Consumer Action Law Centre's chief executive said junk insurance, by its nature, is hidden, harmful and of poor value and the policies wrongfully enriched corporations at the expense of customers. "Even today, there are people becoming aware of their right to a refund of junk insurance premiums," she said. On AFCA's June 30 deadline, she said many affected customers very likely didn't watch the royal commission, or read their loan documents closely enough to know they were entitled to a refund. "There will be more becoming aware of their rights down the track," she said. Tonkin said if only a few people are claiming, there's no need for a strict deadline. But if lots of people are still coming forward, it shows the problem hasn't been fixed and should be extended. "At the very least, AFCA should retain a discretion to allow claims, particularly for consumers experiencing vulnerability," she said. And she said it should be incumbent on banks and other lenders that profited from junk insurance policies to be identifying customers who are entitled to a refund. The founder of financial refund service Claimo, Nathan Mortlock, estimates more than 5 million Australians were sold add-on insurance, estimated at more than $17 billion. Claimo has been processing thousands of claims for potential victims of add on insurance. Since A Current Affair aired a story last November about the looming deadline, Claimo said it has received almost 50,000 new enquiries. "That surge proves Australians were not previously aware. If they were, they would have come forward in 2019," he said. Some claimants received anything from a few thousand dollars to more than $20,000 with Claimo taking a 30 per cent cut. All up it has 70,000 cases, worth an estimated $67 million. "Millions of Australians may miss out on compensation they're legally entitled to, simply because they didn't know they were victims in time," he said. Mortlock said AFCA was supposed to protect consumers but by setting an arbitrary cut-off date and forcing people to prove they didn't know about the issue sooner, it's creating legal hurdles that most can't get over. Add-on insurance was the industry's dirty little secret for years. It first landed on ASIC's radar in 2011, at the height of the UK's own add-on insurance scandal. That year, the regulator launched an investigation into 15 financial institutions including the big four banks, CBA, NAB, ANZ and Westpac over the sale of consumer credit insurance (CCI), the most common add-on product. ASIC made 10 recommendations, but little changed. The products kept selling, the mis-selling continued, and the industry kept profiting at the expense of customers. In 2017 ASIC sounded the alarm again, raising concerns about the way the products were being sold. And in 2019, following the release of the banking royal commission's final report, ASIC released a fresh report that had reviewed the sale of CCI products by 11 financial institutions between 2011 and 2018 and found the sales practices and product design were still delivering "extremely poor value for money." It found that for CCI sold with credit cards, consumers received only 11 cents in claims for every dollar paid in premiums. Across all CCI products the average return was 19 cents, confirming the product was effectively junk. "Telephone sales staff used high-pressure selling and other unfair sales practices when selling CCI, and consumers were given non-compliant personal advice to buy unsuitable policies," ASIC's report said. Since the release of the report, the 11 lenders it focused on as part of its investigation, stopped selling CCI with credit cards, personal loans, or home loans. In a statement Emma Curtis, AFCA's Lead Ombudsman for Insurance, said AFCA wanted to make sure consumers know this deadline is approaching so it has been running ads on radio across the country, as well as print ads in major newspapers and online, to reach as many people as possible. "Under our rules, AFCA will generally not consider a complaint unless it was submitted within six years of the date the complainant first became aware or should reasonably have become aware that they have suffered a loss. The sale of add-on insurance has been the subject of significant media, regulator, industry and consumer advocacy campaigns and class actions for many years. AFCA is letting consumers know that we will generally consider complaints regarding the sale of add-on insurance sold before July 2019, provided they are submitted to AFCA by June 30 this year." She said AFCA will generally assess complaints lodged after that date as outside the six year time limit, unless the complainant can demonstrate that special circumstances apply, which we will assess on a case-by-case basis. ASIC said in a statement it had published numerous reports revealing that add-on insurance sold at point-of-purchase was often low value, commission-driven, and ultimately ended up in customers paying for coverage they were unaware of or did not need. ASIC's remediation update in 2022 found that there had been $5.6 billion in remediation for an estimated seven million Australian consumers for failures identified across the financial system. This included remediations in the insurance industry totalling more than $1.3 billion. Junk insurance was just one component of this, along with pricing promises failures and poor sales practices. It seems after years of financial misconduct the burden is on consumers, many still unaware they're owed a refund. With little fanfare and a deadline fast approaching, millions may slip through the cracks.

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