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Central Banks Have Every Reason to Keep Buying in Gold Market
Central Banks Have Every Reason to Keep Buying in Gold Market

Bloomberg

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Central Banks Have Every Reason to Keep Buying in Gold Market

Central banks have emerged as a driving force behind the record-breaking bull market for gold, and while the true scale of their buying is shrouded in mystery, nobody expects them to stop. Globally, they are accumulating roughly 80 metric tons of gold a month, worth about $8.5 billion at current prices, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate. Most of the buying is secret, although trade data indicates China accounts for a lot of the purchases, along with other unidentified buyers via Switzerland.

Chart of the Week: Bitcoin Soars, But ‘Wen Lambo' Crowd Is Missing From the Rally
Chart of the Week: Bitcoin Soars, But ‘Wen Lambo' Crowd Is Missing From the Rally

Yahoo

time25-05-2025

  • Automotive
  • Yahoo

Chart of the Week: Bitcoin Soars, But ‘Wen Lambo' Crowd Is Missing From the Rally

What happens when retail logs off from crypto and Wall Street tunes in? Looking at bitcoin's BTC recent all-time-high, one would say it feels bullish and the industry is maturing. That might as well be the case, but we might not be there yet. So before we floor our Lambos, let's look under the hood. First things first, retail investors have basically ghosted this rally. A quick search on Google Trends using the keyword "bitcoin" shows that the surge that was seen back in 2021's bull market is non-existent. Back then, everyone and their grandmothers were Googling bitcoin, aping into altcoins and flooding the social media with rocket emojis. In 2025? It's a ghost town in retail-land. There was a blip of high retail interest surrounding the U.S. presidential election, when a short-lived memecoin mania took over retail sentiment. However, that surge is long gone, as memecoin prices tanked swiftly, even as bitcoin hit an all-time high this week, ripping past $111,000. "Early in this cycle, memecoins became a concentration of risky retail-driven trading with related trading peaking in January," said Toronto-based crypto platform FRNT Financial. "However, since then, there has been a virtual wash-out of interest and memecoin trading activity," which shows "the tepid risk appetite in crypto at the moment," FRNT added. Translation: "Wen Lambo" crowd got burned, and they aren't rushing back into the race track en masse anytime soon. On the topic of risk appetite, let's go back to the car analogy. During the 2021 bull market, people bought unreliable performance cars, stripped out the brakes and seatbelts to go faster than ever before, and did not care that there might be engine blowouts. As long as there was a promise of reaching the moon, bullish vibes were all that mattered. Now? After losing tremendous amounts of money on those unsustainable go-fast cars for years, traders are driving Toyota Corollas—sensible sedans that are slow but steady and still on the road. That risk-off sentiment is also evident from the funding rates, according to FRNT's analysis of BTC perp rates—a measure of how much traders are willing to pay to maintain their long positions. When bitcoin reached a record high of around $42,000 in January 2021, the perp rate was about blistering 185%. Today, at bitcoin near $110,000, the rate is near 20% on crypto options exchange Deribit, meaning the risk appetite isn't completely gone but nowhere near the 2021 frenzy. A third point to add is the high number of short positions in the market. As CoinDesk's Oliver Knight reported this week, the bitcoin long/short ratio is at its lowest point since the crypto winter in September 2022. This implies that the majority of the traders aren't completely buying into this recent positive momentum and betting on bitcoin moving lower as a hedge for the new bullish rally. The impact of such positioning was clear on Friday, when bitcoin swiftly crashed from near $111,000 to $108,000 in a matter of minutes and then bounced right back up to $109,000. The anxiety of a swift volatility is real. So in a car-themed analogy, the drivers (in this case, investors) are still taking out their super-modified, unreliable sports cars for a weekend drive on the track. Still, they also have their Corollas following along. Just in case the engine blows on their go-fast cars. Given the current macro-risk, it's not entirely surprising that investors are on their toes and risk-averse. But this might just be exactly what your mechanic at the shop prescribed. In fact, this might be an indicator of a sustainable rally in the long term. "Periods of low leverage and risk appetite in crypto have often preceded further sustainable gains," according to FRNT. "BTC appears to be in such a phase, set against a backdrop of numerous bullish catalysts and narratives," the firm added. The bottom line is that the retail Lambos might have been towed away, but big money is stepping in with their everlasting Toyotas. This might start a slow but steady race to the moon, not just a reckless in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Gold Corrects- Are Higher Highs on the Horizon?
Gold Corrects- Are Higher Highs on the Horizon?

Globe and Mail

time25-05-2025

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

Gold Corrects- Are Higher Highs on the Horizon?

I asked if gold would make a new high in an April 1 Barchart article. Nearby COMEX gold futures were at the $3,156 per ounce level on March 31, when I wrote: Gold could pull back from the most recent high, but the bull market, now twenty six years old, shows no sign of faltering while fiat currency values dissipate. Gold is likely to continue to make new highs in April as it closes in on its inflation-adjusted target from the 1980 high at the $3,400 per ounce level. June COMEX gold futures eclipsed the inflation-adjusted target from the 1980 high at $3,400 per ounce, rising to over $3,500 before pulling back. However, the long-term bullish trend continues as gold makes higher lows and higher highs. A new high and a pullback COMEX gold futures reached the most recent record high on April 22, 2025, when the price reached $3,509.90 per ounce. The daily chart shows that the June gold futures corrected 11% to the most recent May 15, 2025, low of $3,123.30 per ounce. Short-term technical support is at the April 7 $2,970.40 low with resistance at the April 22 high. Gold's bull market began in 1999 at $252.50 per ounce. Over the past twenty-six years, gold has made higher lows and higher highs, experiencing periodic corrections. Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. The quarterly chart highlights many double-digit percentage corrections over the past years. Analysts are adjusting their upside gold targets Gold's ascent has caused analysts at the leading financial institutions to adjust their price forecasts higher. Analysts at JP Morgan recently projected that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce if there is even a slight shift away from U.S. assets. Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas moved their gold forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,100 to $3,300 in late March. Gold has already eclipsed the forecast price. Forecasts will likely chase gold higher if the metal's price continues its upward trajectory. Sentiment remains bullish, which could be bearish Gold's price was 27.47% higher in 2024, after rising over 11% in 2023. In Q1 2025, gold prices rallied another 18.24%. The substantial gains over the past years that took gold to new highs have caused an investment gold rush, leading to wildly bullish sentiment. In many markets, too many bulls tend to lead to substantial price corrections, as corrections can lead to a herd of long liquidation. However, gold is a unique asset, with central banks and governments major players in the gold arena. The official sector has continued to purchase gold, adding to reserves as they consider gold a foreign currency reserve. In Q1 2025, higher prices did not deter central banks from increasing their gold stockpiles, which rose by 244 metric tons or nearly 7.85 million ounces. While overly bullish sentiment could lead to further price declines, the trend of increasing central bank gold demand suggests they will step up and buy during any substantial price corrections. High longer-term interest rates and a weak U.S. dollar are competing factors U.S. interest rates remain elevated in May 2025. The trend in the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bond futures remains bearish, with the long bond futures around 112, which is not far above the October 2023 107-04 low and critical technical support level. Meanwhile, short-term rates remain high, with the Fed Funds Rate at a midpoint of 4.375% after the Fed cited tariff-related factors for not reducing rates at the May FOMC meeting. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold prices because they increase the cost of carrying gold inventories, and higher rates attract capital to the fixed-income bond market and away from other assets, including gold. Meanwhile, the price action in the dollar index has supported higher gold prices. The daily chart of the U.S. dollar index in 2025 shows the 11.12% decline from the January 2025 high of 110.17 to the April 21, 2025, low of 97.92. The dollar index reached its low around the time gold prices peaked. Since the U.S. dollar is the pricing mechanism for the international gold market, a weak dollar tends to support prices while a stronger dollar has the opposite effect. The index has rallied back to over the 100 level in late May 2025, weighing on gold prices, which have declined from the most recent high. Gold's ascent is a commentary on the economic and geopolitical landscapes Gold's ascent this century has been incredible, rising nearly fourteen times from the 1999 low. However, gold's role as the world's oldest means of exchange tells us that fiat money's value is declining, as gold has made new record highs in all currency terms. Moreover, gold has a long history as flight capital, rising in times of geopolitical turmoil. Wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the bifurcation of the world's nuclear powers have supported higher gold prices. Meanwhile, as the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency declines, many governments have added to gold reserves, which are likely understated. Russia and China, two countries that are leading gold producers, have likely vacuumed up domestic production, bolstering their reserves. Since strategic reserves are state secrets in Russia and China, the data probably does not filter through to the official reserve reports. The bottom line is that technical and fundamental factors point to even higher gold prices over the coming months and years, supported by significant global economic and geopolitical changes. Buying gold during a correction has been optimal for over a quarter of a century, and I expect that trend to continue over the coming years.

Bitcoin To $120,000 Next? Here's What Technical Analysis Says
Bitcoin To $120,000 Next? Here's What Technical Analysis Says

Yahoo

time24-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Bitcoin To $120,000 Next? Here's What Technical Analysis Says

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Kevin says Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) decisive move above $106,800 signals a fresh leg in its bull cycle, with eyes now on the $116,000–$128,000 range as the next key resistance. What Happened: In his podcast update on May 21, Kevin highlighted that this breakout aligns perfectly with a long-standing technical roadmap he's followed since late 2024. He had flagged $106,800 as a critical level, noting it was the site of a previous double top that triggered last cycle's major correction. Don't Miss: Trade crypto futures on Plus500 with up to $200 in bonuses — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. Grow your IRA or 401(k) with Crypto – unlock the power of alternative investments including a Crypto IRA within your retirement account. Back in January, Kevin accurately forecasted a correction window between 114–174 days, which culminated with Bitcoin bottoming out near $74,000 on April 7. That reversal was confirmed by a key MACD signal on the 3-day chart, which has historically supported the broader bull market. "We literally bottomed on April 7, started heading higher on April 9," Kevin said. "The MACD hit that exact support channel we've been watching the whole time." What's Next: Looking ahead, Kevin sees $116,000–$128,000 as the next battleground for BTC. "There's a cluster of resistance here," he noted, but said the breakout will be confirmed only if Bitcoin closes multiple days above $106,800. Kevin cautions against jumping blindly into altcoins. Instead, he advises a methodical Bitcoin-first approach: start with a full BTC analysis. Once you're confident in where Bitcoin is headed, only then zoom into altcoin-BTC pairings to see what's showing relative strength. Using this strategy, Kevin has spotlighted Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) as an outperformer, noting it's "holding up better than most altcoins against Bitcoin." In contrast, many others are still printing new lows on BTC pairs. Read Next: New to crypto? Get up to $400 in rewards for successfully completing short educational courses and making your first qualifying trade on Coinbase. A must-have for all crypto enthusiasts: Sign up for the Gemini Credit Card today and earn rewards on Bitcoin Ether, or 60+ other tokens, with every purchase. Image: Shutterstock Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Bitcoin To $120,000 Next? Here's What Technical Analysis Says originally appeared on

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