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September British Pound Futures: How to Trade Stagflation Threats and the Moody's Debt Downgrade
September British Pound Futures: How to Trade Stagflation Threats and the Moody's Debt Downgrade

Globe and Mail

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

September British Pound Futures: How to Trade Stagflation Threats and the Moody's Debt Downgrade

September British pound futures (B6U25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. See on the daily bar chart for the September British pound futures that prices are trending higher and have just hit a three-week high. The bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage to suggest still more price upside in the near term. Fundamentally, the United Kingdom's economy is healthy, overall, and the U.K. and the U.S. are on better trading terms than is the case with the U.S. with most other countries. Meantime, the U.S. economy has also shown some strength but the recent downgrade of U.S. debt by Moody's reminds currency traders of the high U.S. debt burden and fiscal problems. There are also increasing worries of inflation or even stagflation for the U.S. economy in the coming months. A move in the September British pound futures above chart resistance at this week's high of 1.3600 would become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be 1.4200, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at 1.3350. IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Jumpy As June Expires
U.S. Natural Gas Futures Jumpy As June Expires

Wall Street Journal

time28-05-2025

  • Business
  • Wall Street Journal

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Jumpy As June Expires

0936 ET – U.S. natural gas futures turn lower in volatile trade as the June contract approaches final settlement. Daily cooling remains subdued later this week but is on pace to pick up dramatically after that, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. 'As July becomes the Nymex front-month, firmer mid-summer fundamentals may align with bullish technicals to increase chances for pricing upside,' he says. Still, the likelihood of weak spot prices into early June 'offers bulls caution.' The June contract is off 1.1% at $3.361/mmBtu and gas for July delivery is down 1.2% at $3.698/mmBtu. (

Gold and Silver May See Profit-Taking on May 7. Watch Crude Oil Here.
Gold and Silver May See Profit-Taking on May 7. Watch Crude Oil Here.

Globe and Mail

time06-05-2025

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

Gold and Silver May See Profit-Taking on May 7. Watch Crude Oil Here.

The gold and silver bulls are out of the gate strong early this week. As of this writing, gold has tacked on $150 so far this week. Silver prices have added over $1. Precious metals bulls have gained momentum following recent big price setbacks that saw June gold futures (GCM25) hit a low of $2,970.40 on April 7 and May silver futures (SIK25) score a low of $27.545 on the same date. Since then, both metals have reestablished price uptrends on the daily bar charts. Importantly, trending markets often see a price pattern develop. Prices burst and then pause, only to burst again and then pause again. The cycle continues until the trend peters out. These bursts and pauses in price action can create bull/bear flag and pennant patterns on the charts. The U.S. Data Point of the Week Lies Just Ahead. Gold and Silver Traders May Take Profits. The big fundamental event for this week is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve. The meeting began Tuesday morning and ends on Wednesday afternoon. The marketplace consensus is that the FOMC will not lower U.S. interest rates. As always, the FOMC statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be very closely scrutinized for clues on the trajectory of Fed monetary policy in the weeks and months ahead. Wording on inflationary pressures will also be very important to the marketplace, as will the central bank's latest take on tariffs and the global trade war. I would not be surprised to see the shorter-term gold and silver futures traders, but especially gold traders, ring the cash register and take some profits just after the FOMC statement is released Wednesday afternoon. We've seen the price bursts in gold and, to a lesser degree, in silver this week. Now it may be time for pauses or corrective pullbacks in the existing price uptrends in both metals. Crude Oil Price Action May Offer Clues for All Commodity Market Watchers Veteran commodity market watchers, including metals traders, will be closely watching how the crude oil (CLM25) market reacts in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC results. Crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector. Its daily price movements can have a significant influence on many other commodity markets' daily price action. A surprisingly hawkish lean by the Fed would likely further pressure oil prices and may be bearish for gold and silver. A surprisingly dovish lean on U.S. monetary policy would likely rally crude oil and precious metals prices. Key price levels to watch in June crude oil futures after the FOMC meeting are the April low of $54.67. There are likely a good number of pre-placed sell-stop orders just below that level, which if triggered, would likely push oil prices to test $50 a barrel. A close in crude oil prices below the April low would be an ominously bearish development for commodity futures markets, including possibly, but not for certain, the precious metals, which may see safe-haven demand in such a scenario. Conversely, a close in June crude above $62.50 would suggest a market bottom is in place in oil and that trader and investor risk appetite in the general marketplace has improved. That's an important element for the speculative traders to become more active on the long side of commodity futures markets. But again, such a scenario may be a mixed bag for gold and silver. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace is generally bearish for the safe-haven metals. However, gold and silver traders can be fickle. They may decide that any improved trader and investor attitudes could make for better consumer and commercial demand for precious metals, including for jewelry — especially from China and India. Tell me what you think. Email me at jim@

Wait for Lean Hog Futures to Move Above This Level Before You Buy
Wait for Lean Hog Futures to Move Above This Level Before You Buy

Globe and Mail

time06-05-2025

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

Wait for Lean Hog Futures to Move Above This Level Before You Buy

July lean hog futures (HEN25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. See on the daily bar chart for July lean hog futures that prices are trending higher and last week hit a two-month high. See at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bullish posture as the red MACD line is above the blue trigger line and both lines are trending up. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Fundamentally, the record-setting bull run in the cattle and beef markets is friendly for hog and pork markets. High beef prices at the meat counter mean better consumer substitution demand for less expensive pork cuts. Also, the outdoor grilling season is just commencing, which also means better consumer demand for pork. A move in July lean hogs above chart resistance at last week's high of $101.90 would become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $111.00, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at $97.60. IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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