Latest news with #centralbanks
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Companies worldwide express lost confidence heading into Q3
This story was originally published on To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily newsletter. While uncertainty is the rule for macroeconomics these days, global business leaders are increasingly aligned in their view of upcoming business prospects. And that view is a fairly dark one, as this year, companies have been steadily losing confidence in what lies ahead. According to Dun & Bradstreet's Global Business Optimism Index, based on a quarterly poll of approximately 10,000 businesses worldwide, the level of optimism heading into the third quarter was down 6.5% from three months earlier. D&B blamed slowing trade, tariff uncertainty and softening sales for the retrenchment. Other business confidence indices presented by D&B also declined entering the third quarter. The optimism falloff as reflected in the recent survey, taken in May and June, followed quarterly declines of 12.9% and 1.3% heading into this year's first and second quarters, respectively. Less than half (46%) of respondents to the most recent survey anticipated de-escalation of mounting supply chain concerns, whether through formal agreements or informal arrangements. 'While many central banks have begun cutting interest rates, this has yet to translate into better financial conditions,' D&B opined in its new quarterly report. The business analytics provider added that existing worries about supply chain vulnerabilities and geopolitical risks have worsened recently because of the escalating Iran-Israel conflict and the growing threat of disruption of key trade routes. To be sure, D&B's business optimism index is still relatively healthy in one sense. The index reading from the most recent survey was 105.6, with a reading above 100 indicating improved optimism relative to the base year of Q3 2023 through Q2 2024. Still, the recent significant dip in optimism suggests that businesses may be adopting a more cautious stance as they continue to grapple with the challenging external environment, D&B wrote. It had appeared heading into the second quarter, when optimism fell only slightly compared to the big first-quarter plunge, that 'businesses were beginning to adjust to the changing trade environment,' the report said. The recent decline in optimism was more pronounced in the manufacturing sector (-8.3%) than in the services sector (-5.4%). The most affected manufacturing segments were metals manufacturing (-14.6%), automotives (-12.5%) and capital goods (-11.1%). Those segments are more exposed to shifts in trade policy and global supply chain dependencies, D&B noted.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
As Bitcoin and Ethereum Soar, Should Investors Hop Onto the Crypto Train or Wait for Prices to Drop?
Key Points It's reasonable to be hesitant about buying during a powerful rally. That doesn't mean you should always avoid doing it. Waiting for lower prices is a choice that does not always pay off. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › The cryptocurrency markets are having an absolutely sizzling summer. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) recently topped $123,000, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) vaulted above $3,700, and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) trades for more than $195 after a steep climb. All three coins are up between 34% and 137% in just the past three months, with Ethereum being the pacesetter and Solana and Bitcoin the runners-up. That kind of linked movement raises a classic dilemma for investors: Is it smarter to chase the strength and buy coins now, or wait for the inevitable pullback? History says crypto does deliver violent corrections regularly, yet it has also said that sidelining cash during bull markets has cost investors much more than the subsequent crashes ever did. Let's shed some more light on this issue and determine what the best course of action is. The rally still has legs The macroeconomic and monetary factors at play today all point toward the crypto sector's bull run having plenty of juice left. First, central banks from Europe to China are already cutting their interest rates, thereby reducing the cost of borrowing and increasing liquidity, and there is likely to be more easing through the end of the year, potentially in the U.S. as well. Cheaper money usually finds its way into risk assets like crypto, which tends to act like a levered bet on that rising tide. Second, institutional demand is here, and it's powerful. June saw $4.6 billion worth of inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), propelling the coin to record highs. The same institutional desks are now green‑lighting Ethereum allocations, and other cryptocurrencies may soon be on the docket as well. Newfound regulatory clarity might be the strongest accelerant of all here. On July 18, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (Genius Act for short) was signed into law, thereby providing a legal framework for bank‑issued stablecoins. The industry's biggest policy overhang of the past five years is finally starting to abate. Lastly, momentum is broadening beyond the big two coins. Solana's tokenized real‑world asset (RWA) value has jumped 140% year to date to reach more than $418 million as of July 14. That's double the growth rate of the wider RWA market. Much of that spike comes from xStocks, a joint venture between two of the biggest centralized cryptocurrency exchanges -- Kraken and Bybit -- that now lists 60 tokenized U.S. equities tradable 24/7 with instant on‑chain settlement. Growing uses like these reinforce the idea that crypto's sandbox is turning into real infrastructure, and capital is already flowing in to reflect the change. How to climb aboard without losing sleep It's no secret that rallies of this size generate fear of missing out (FOMO) and its shadow, regret. Resisting FOMO is key, especially if you accept that this rally is nowhere close to being over -- impulsive buying can easily lead to disaster. Crypto remains habitually volatile. Assuming you jump in with a lump sum at the wrong moment, a routine flash crash can sting hard enough to force an ill‑timed exit. And, generally speaking, investing without a long-term plan for how to manage the investment is a recipe for heartache. Don't assume that this uptrend will last long enough to make you rich, because it will not. Instead, now is a great time for dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Buy a set dollar amount of your preferred coins on a schedule, and you will smooth your entry price across bull and bear stretches alike. Over multiyear horizons, it reduces the chance that short‑term volatility leads you to make an actual investing mistake. This method does not eliminate risk. Bitcoin fell very sharply in 2022, and a similar drawdown will happen again. But if your horizon is five years or more, the probability of negative returns shrinks dramatically, especially when underlying adoption and policy support keep expanding. In closing, crypto's train is already leaving the station, and it may be hauling new cars behind it for a while. Stepping aboard with discipline beats waving from the platform hoping for a cheaper ticket. Don't worry if you don't hop on at the perfect moment -- it's the direction of travel that matters the most. Do the experts think Bitcoin is a buy right now? The Motley Fool's expert analyst team, drawing on years of investing experience and deep analysis of thousands of stocks, leverages our proprietary Moneyball AI investing database to uncover top opportunities. They've just revealed their to buy now — did Bitcoin make the list? When our Stock Advisor analyst team has a stock recommendation, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is up 1,048% vs. just 180% for the S&P — that is beating the market by 867.59%!* Imagine if you were a Stock Advisor member when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $652,133!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,056,790!* The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. As Bitcoin and Ethereum Soar, Should Investors Hop Onto the Crypto Train or Wait for Prices to Drop? was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
Khaleej Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Middle East sovereign investors recalibrate strategies amid geopolitical uncertainty and market shifts
Political and policy decisions have become core drivers of investment strategy, prompting sovereign investors to fundamentally reassess portfolio construction and risk management, a study showed. According to Invesco's annual Global Sovereign Asset Management Study, geopolitical tensions (84 per cent) remain the dominant short-term risks for sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and central banks in the region, followed by a fallout from the Middle East conflict (68 per cent). An overwhelming majority (96 per cent) of respondents believe that geopolitical rivalry will be a key driver of volatility, while 91 per cent expect protectionist policies to entrench persistent inflation across developed economies. Most notably, 52 per cent of Middle East SWFs now see deglobalisation as a material threat to investment returns, underscoring a marked shift in the market narrative. Invesco's study, a leading indicator on sovereign investor behaviour, draws on the insights from 141 senior investment professionals, including chief investment officers, heads of asset classes, and portfolio strategists, from 83 SWFs and 58 central banks across the world, collectively managing $27 trillion in assets.* Active strategies gain traction alongside foundational passive exposure One of the key shifts in portfolio construction identified in the study is the greater use of active strategies by respondents. On average, Middle East SWFs maintain 78 per cent of their equities portfolio and 77 per cent of their fixed income portfolio in active strategies. The survey shows that 33 per cent of SWFs in the region are planning to increase active equity exposures over the next two years, with 50 per cent doing the same with fixed income. While passive strategies continue to provide efficiency and scale benefits, particularly in highly liquid public markets, active approaches are being used to address index concentration risks, navigate regional dispersion, and enhance scenario resilience in an increasingly fragmented landscape. At the same time, portfolio construction decisions such as asset class, geographic, and factor tilts are increasingly viewed as core expressions of active management. Fixed income redefined and reprioritised Due to a combination of geopolitical shifts and interest rate normalisation, traditional portfolio construction models are being rethought, with many SWFs turning to more dynamic portfolio approaches that includes more fluid asset allocations, enhanced liquidity management, and greater use of alternatives. Within this landscape, fixed income has assumed a new importance within SWF portfolios, becoming the second-most favoured asset class behind infrastructure. On a net basis, 30 per cent of Middle East SWFs plan to increase their fixed income exposure over the next 12 months. 'Amid geopolitical uncertainty and market shifts, investors across the Middle East are recalibrating their strategies,' says Josette Rizk, Head of Middle East and Africa at Invesco. 'Active asset management is growing in prominence due to its adaptability to a rapidly evolving economic environment. While private credit holds on to its popularity, fixed income has rebounded as the region's SWFs diversify exposures.' Private credit takes centre stage as a new diversification tool Private credit continues to gain momentum among SWFs in the Middle East, with 63 per cent accessing the asset class through funds and 50 per cent making direct investments or co-investments. The survey indicates that 50 per cent of SWFs worldwide, including 40 per cent of those based in the Middle East, plan to increase allocations to private credit over the next year. This growing interest reflects a broader rethinking of diversification as traditional stock-bond correlations erode in a higher-rate, higher-inflation environment. Sovereign investors are turning to private credit for floating-rate exposure, customised deal structuring, and return profiles that are less correlated with public markets. Once considered a niche asset class, private credit is now viewed as a strategic pillar of long-term portfolio construction. China remains a high priority in a fragmented emerging market landscape SWFs are taking a more selective approach to emerging markets. Asia (excluding China) is a high priority for 43 per cent of respondents worldwide and 25 per cent in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China is once again an important focus for 28 per cent SWFs globally and 33 per cent in the Middle East, with 60 per cent of the region's SWFs expecting to increase China allocations over the next five years. SWFs are increasingly orientating their China strategies around specific technology sectors, such as AI, semiconductors, EVs, and renewables, with 80 per cent of respondents in the region believing the country's technology and innovation capabilities will become globally competitive in the future. 'Middle East SWFs are focusing a large proportion of their portfolios on Asian economies,' adds Rizk. 'Based on the outcomes of our study, we anticipate rising investment flows between the Middle East and China, with higher growth potential in selected sectors.' Active management is viewed as essential in this environment. Just 25 per cent of Middle East SWFs rely on passive emerging market (EM) strategies, while 73 per cent access EMs through specialist managers, citing the need for local insight and tactical flexibility. Digital assets, continued exploration Digital assets are no longer seen as an outsider topic among institutional investors. This year's study shows a small but notable increase in the number of SWFs that have made direct investments in digital assets – 11 per cent, compared to 7 per cent in 2022. Allocations are most common in the Middle East (22 per cent), Asia Pacific (18 per cent), and North America (16 per cent), in contrast with Europe, Latin America, and Africa, where they remain at 0 per cent. For Middle East SWFs, the biggest barriers to investing in digital assets include regulatory challenges (100 per cent) and volatility (86 per cent). 'Investors are increasingly open to exploring the value digital assets may add to their portfolios,' says Rizk. 'In the Middle East, allocations are growing cautiously as investors balance new opportunities with regulatory challenges and market volatility.' Globally, central banks are simultaneously advancing their own digital currency initiatives, balancing innovation potential against systemic stability considerations. While no central bank respondents in the Middle East have launched a digital currency yet, 33 per cent are considering it, viewing efficiency in payments (100 per cent) and enhanced financial inclusion (44 per cent) as the biggest benefits of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Central bank resilience and gold's defensive role Central banks are reinforcing their reserve management frameworks in response to mounting geopolitical instability and fiscal uncertainty. In the Middle East, 67 per cent plan to increase their reserve holdings over the next two years, while 27 per cent intend to diversify their portfolios. Gold continues to play a critical role in this effort, with 63 per cent of central banks in the region expecting to expand their gold allocations over the next three years. Seen as a politically neutral store of value, gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic hedge against risks such as rising U.S. debt levels, reserve weaponisation, and global fragmentation. At the same time, central banks are modernising how they manage gold exposures. In addition to physical holdings, an increasing number are turning to more dynamic tools, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), swaps, and derivatives, to fine-tune allocations, improve liquidity management, and enhance overall portfolio flexibility without sacrificing defensive protection. This is expected to continue, with 21 per cent of central banks globally and 25 per cent in the Middle East saying they plan to hold investments in gold ETFs in the next five years, while 19 per cent worldwide and 25 per cent in the region intend to hold gold derivatives.
Gulf Business
2 days ago
- Business
- Gulf Business
Navigating H2 2025: Why disciplined investing matters more than ever
Image: Supplied As we step into the second half of 2025, the global investment landscape presents a complex mix of opportunity and uncertainty. Growth is slowing. Inflation refuses to fade. Interest rate cuts are still being postponed. Meanwhile, geopolitical tension is spreading across regions and asset classes. These are not market conditions that reward broad optimism or reckless positioning. My view is simple: H2 2025 will reward clarity, selectivity, and discipline. This is not a time for grand, one-directional bets. It is a time to build thoughtful, well-structured portfolios that can weather a slower, choppier world. A Slower but Still Resilient Economy The global economy is losing momentum, but it is not in freefall. The OECD now expects global GDP to grow just under 3 percent this year, while US growth is projected at 1.6 per cent. Inflation, particularly in services, remains above target in most developed economies. Central banks, especially the That reality is pushing investors to reset expectations. We are no longer in a world where monetary policy will do the heavy lifting. Instead, investors must rely on fundamental analysis, diversified positioning, and tactical execution. In equities, quality still leads Despite the noise, parts of the equity market are still working. Large-cap US stocks with strong balance sheets and pricing power continue to outperform. The S&P 500's strength is being driven by a narrow group of sectors including defense, financials, and selected technology names. Beneath the surface, however, dispersion is rising. We are focused on companies that offer real cash flow, global exposure, and resilience. Aerospace, payment networks, and energy infrastructure are showing stable earnings and investor support. AI-linked semiconductors and sovereign data infrastructure are also attracting structural capital. Fixed income Is back in play For the first time in over a decade, bonds are doing more than just cushioning risk. High-grade corporate debt is yielding 4 to 5 per cent, creating genuine opportunities for risk-adjusted income. At the same time, private credit continues to benefit from tight bank lending standards and investor demand for yield. We are rotating into shorter-duration, investment-grade credit, and allocating capital to private lending strategies that offer a clear edge over traditional fixed income. Private markets: A shift in mindset Private equity markets are showing renewed discipline. Buyers are being more selective, focusing on operationally sound businesses rather than growth at any price. Sectors such as digital infrastructure and decarbonization are generating strong interest, particularly as sovereign investors move into long-duration assets. Private credit is also coming into its own. With traditional lenders still cautious, asset managers are stepping in to fill the gap, especially in infrastructure, logistics, and middle-market lending. Thematic investing: Where capital is flowing We are watching three key secular themes: AI infrastructure remains one of the most underappreciated investment opportunities. Beyond the software and chipmakers, real capital is moving into data centers, cloud platforms, and edge computing. Energy transition is now investable, not just aspirational. Hydrogen, grid-scale batteries, and carbon capture projects are beginning to scale, supported by long-term policy incentives and private capital. Geopolitical hedging is becoming mainstream. Gold is up over 20 percent this year, defense stocks continue to see inflows, and utilities are outperforming broader benchmarks as investors seek protection from political risk and inflation shocks. The oil price rally is also pulling capital back toward traditional safe havens. Investors are increasing exposure to gold, US dollar assets, and energy-linked equities as a hedge against geopolitical volatility and commodity-driven inflation. How investment portfolios should be positioned We recommend second-half portfolio strategy to be grounded in five guiding principles: Focus on quality equities with strong balance sheets, global demand, and pricing power. Use fixed income actively, not passively, to drive consistent income. Allocate to private credit and infrastructure for long-term growth and yield. Include gold, defence, and utilities as volatility buffers. Maintain liquidity and flexibility to respond to political shifts, macro surprises, or market dislocations. H2 2025 will not be driven by narrative. It will be shaped by execution. This is not a momentum market, and it is not yet a pivot market. It is a market for professionals — those who can cut through the noise, assess risk with discipline, and allocate capital with precision. For investors willing to do the work, the opportunities are real. But they will not come easy. In a slower, more fragmented world, success will belong to those who stay grounded, stay agile, and stay committed to long-term value creation. The
Bloomberg
3 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump's Tariffs Spur Global Central Bank Rate Cuts — But Less So at the Fed
I'm Craig Stirling, a senior economics editor. Today we're looking at the outlook for central banks. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@ And if you aren't yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here. Donald Trump is struggling to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but policymakers around the world won't need so much convincing.
