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Reuters
36 minutes ago
- Business
- Reuters
China iron ore imports hold up as storm clouds gather
LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 31 (Reuters) - Iron ore remains a standout performer among major commodities this year as it holds above $100 a metric ton despite mounting signs that the steel sector in top importer China is softening. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange ended at $101.71 a ton on Wednesday, down from $102.74 at the prior close. The rolling front-month contract has traded in a relatively narrow band this year, with a high of $107.81 a ton on February 12 and a low of $93.35 on July 1. That stability in pricing is largely a reflection that imports by China, which buys about 75% of global seaborne volumes, have held up. China's imports were 592.2 million tons in the first half of the year, down 3% from the same period in 2024, according to customs data. However, June arrivals were 105.95 million tons, the highest since December last year. China's July imports also look set to be above 100 million tons, with commodity analysts Kpler estimating 101.32 million tons. The relative resilience of China's iron ore imports appears to be the main reason that prices have been able to hold around the $100 level so far this year. The question for the market is whether they can continue to hold that level given the signals being received from the rest of the iron ore and steel sectors. China, which produces just over half of the world's steel, saw output drop 9.2% in June from the same month in 2024 to 83.18 million tons. This was also the lowest level of monthly production so far in 2025, and it led to output for the first half of 2025 declining 3% to 514.83 million tons. The outlook for the second half of the year isn't too rosy either, especially if annual steel production is to stay around the informal target of 1 billion tons, which has prevailed for the past five years. At best, China's steel output is unlikely to increase in the second half of this year from the first, and it may decline, especially if exports are lower as importing countries impose more duties on Chinese steel products. Exports of steel products dropped 8.5% to 9.68 million tons in June from May, although a strong start to the year meant shipments rose 9.2% in the first half to 58.15 million tons. But the likelihood is that China's steel exports are likely to ease in the second half, putting further pressure on the sector. Given China's economy is still battling to stabilise the property sector and its manufacturers face uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and intense domestic competition, it's increasingly difficult to construct a bullish case for iron ore. There is still some scope for iron ore inventories to increase, as port stockpiles monitored by consultants SteelHome ended at 131.05 million tons in the week to July 25, down from 151.8 million in the same week last year. It's also worth looking at iron ore demand outside of China, but this is also looking soft, with global seaborne imports dropping to 136.56 million tons in July, the lowest since April, according to Kpler data. Europe's seaborne iron ore imports are expected to fall to 6.53 million tons in July for a third straight monthly decline, according to Kpler. Japan, the world's second-largest iron ore importer, is a rare bright spot with July arrivals expected at a three-month high of 7.73 million tons. However, South Korea, the third-largest importer, is forecast to import 4.71 million tons in July, which is the weakest since February 2017, according to Kpler data. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X, opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Can Platinum Become Rich Person's Gold Again?
NYMEX platinum futures posted a 32.12% gain in Q2 and were 49.22% higher over the first six months of 2025. After years of lagging gold, platinum posted the most significant gain in the precious metals sector and the commodities asset class in Q2 and the first half of 2025. I concluded my Q2 Barchart report on precious metals with: More News from Barchart America's $37 Trillion Debt Now Takes Venmo: Should Investors Be Worried? Dollar Rises as the EU and US Agree on a Trade Deal Dollar Rallies as Euro Slumps on the EU-US Trade Deal Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Silver, platinum, and palladium formed powerful bullish formations in Q2, with each metal falling below its Q1 low and closing the quarter above the previous quarter's peak. The bullish key reversal patterns could indicate that the bullish trend in the precious and industrial metals will continue over the coming months and quarters, as silver, platinum, and palladium catch up with gold. Platinum closed Q2 at $1,334 per ounce on the nearby NYMEX futures contract. The price continued to appreciate in July 2025. A bullish key reversal leads to more gains In Q2 2025, NYMEX platinum futures fell to a slightly lower low than in Q1 2025 before closing the second quarter above the first quarter's high, forming a bullish key reversal on the long-term chart. The quarterly continuous futures chart highlights platinum's bullish technical price action that caused the rare precious metal to move substantially above the $1,000 pivot point that had dominated price action from 2015 through Q1 2025. In early Q3, platinum futures continued their ascent, rising to over $1,500 per ounce, the highest price since Q3 2014. Nearby platinum futures were around the $1,425 level on July 28. Approaching the next upside target Platinum futures are closing on the next technical resistance level at the Q3 2014 high. The monthly continuous contract chart illustrates that platinum's next upside target is $1,523.80 per ounce, the high from July 2014. Above there, the February 2013 high of $1,774.50, the August 2011 high of $1,918.50, and the March 2008 record peak of $2,308.80 are technical resistance levels and upside targets. Platinum was once 'rich person's gold' In March 2008, when platinum reached its record $2,308.80 high, gold's peak was $1,033.90 per ounce. Platinum commanded a nearly $1,275 premium over gold. Platinum is a rarer precious metal, with approximately 170 tons of annual production. Most platinum output comes from South Africa and Russia. In South Africa, production is primary, while in Russia, platinum is a byproduct of nickel production in Siberia's Norilsk region. Annual gold production is approximately 3,600 tons. While China and Russia lead the world in gold output, Australia, Canada, the United States, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Indonesia, South Africa, Uzbekistan, Peru, and many other countries are leading gold producers, making gold output far more ubiquitous than platinum production. Invest in Gold Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA Meanwhile, in 2008 and for many years prior, platinum traded at a premium to gold, earning it the nickname 'rich person's gold.' However, since 2008, platinum's price took a backseat to gold as the golden bull has taken the yellow precious metal to a series of higher record highs, leading to the latest 2025 peak at the $3,500 per ounce level. Platinum's liquidity could mean a parabolic move is on the horizon- Fundamentals in a dangerous world support more gains As highlights, annual output of 170 metric tons of platinum compared to approximately 3,600 tons of gold makes platinum a far less liquid market. Moreover, the data from the futures arena highlights platinum's illiquidity compared to gold. Open interest is the total number of open long and short positions in a futures market. While gold trades on the CME's COMEX division, platinum futures trade on the CME's NYMEX division. A gold futures contract contains 100 ounces of gold, while a platinum futures contract contains 50 ounces of platinum. As of July 25, 2025: COMEX gold futures open interest was 466,174 contracts or 46,617,400 ounces. At $3,310 per ounce, the total value was over $154.304 billion. NYMEX platinum open interest was 88,775 or 4,438,750 ounces. At $1,425 per ounce, the total value was $6.325 billion. The platinum market is far smaller than the gold market. Lower liquidity often leads to higher volatility. In platinum's case, a herd of buying can exacerbate price action as we have seen over the first half of 2025, with platinum's over 29% gain. At the current price, platinum could have a long way to go on the upside before challenging the 2008 all-time high of $2,308.80 per ounce. PPLT and PLTM are platinum ETF products The most direct route for an investment or trading position in platinum is the physical market for bars and coins. Platinum futures on the CME's NYMEX division are a secondary route, as they offer a physical delivery mechanism. Two of the dedicated ETF products that hold physical platinum, trade on the NYSE Arca, and track the metal's price action are: The Aberdeen Physical Platinum ETF (PPLT) is the most liquid platinum ETF product. At $127.05 per share, PPLT had over $1.663 billion in assets. PPLT trades an average of nearly 398,000 shares daily and charges a 0.60% management fee. The GraniteShares Platinum Shares ETF (PLTM) provides exposure to platinum. At $13.45 per share, PLTM had over $89.288 million in assets. PPLT trades an average of nearly 450,000 shares daily and charges a 0.50% management fee. Platinum remains in a bullish trend, with plenty of upside room before it approaches the 2008 all-time high. Given gold's ascent over the past years and platinum's liquidity constraints, platinum could head back to its former position as 'rich person's gold.' On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Copper Gains in London After Trump Tariffs Exclude Refined Metal
(Bloomberg) -- Copper rose in London — following a collapse in New York — after US President Donald Trump shocked the metals world by exempting the most widely traded forms of copper from his hotly anticipated import tariffs. The World's Data Center Capital Has Residents Surrounded An Abandoned Art-Deco Landmark in Buffalo Awaits Revival Budapest's Most Historic Site Gets a Controversial Rebuild San Francisco in Talks With Vanderbilt for Downtown Campus We Should All Be Biking Along the Beach The industrial metal rose as much as 1.2% on the London Metal Exchange, before paring some gains. Earlier, futures on the Comex exchange plunged by their most ever after the White House unveiled details of the 50% tariffs which showed refined copper — widely traded on global exchanges — was left out. The exemption removes the reason for the big premium of New York prices over London. It should spur traders to unwind bets on that gap and to cover short positions on the LME. Prices on the Comex were trading down 19% to $4.548 a pound in early trading in Asia on Thursday. The decision is the latest surprise from Trump to upend the copper market. When the president first flagged the likelihood of tariffs early this year, US prices soared relative to the rest of the world and traders raced to get the metal to America to rack up profits. Some industry veterans said it was the biggest trade of their lifetimes. Now, the decision to exclude refined copper from the tariffs will roil global trade flows of the metal, which plays a crucial role in the global economy thanks to its widespread use in electrical wiring. The massive volumes that have been shipped to the US in recent months created a huge stockpile that could potentially be re-exported. The move to differentiate between refined metal and semi-processed products in the tariff policy follows lobbying from the US copper industry, with some key players arguing that the nation didn't have sufficient capacity to replace all of its imports immediately. The 50% import tariff announced on Wednesday will apply to semi-finished products such as pipes, wires, rods, sheets and tubes, and to copper-intensive goods like pipe fittings, cables, connectors and electrical components, according to the White House statement. Less processed goods — including ore, concentrates, mattes, cathodes and anodes — are not subject to the tariffs. Still, the prospect of import tariffs on refined copper may not have entirely disappeared. A proclamation published by the White House on Wednesday stated that the Department of Commerce had recommended a delayed imposition of import tariffs on refined metal, with the rate set at 15% starting in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. Trump directed the Secretary of Commerce to provide an update on US copper markets by the end of June 2026, so that the president could determine whether such 'a phased universal import duty on refined copper' would be warranted. Copper was up 0.4% to $9,733.50 a ton as of 9:24 a.m. Shanghai time. --With assistance from Joe Deaux, Andrew Janes, Winnie Zhu and Alfred Cang. Russia Builds a New Web Around Kremlin's Handpicked Super App Burning Man Is Burning Through Cash It's Not Just Tokyo and Kyoto: Tourists Descend on Rural Japan Everyone Loves to Hate Wind Power. Scotland Found a Way to Make It Pay Off Cage-Free Eggs Are Booming in the US, Despite Cost and Trump's Efforts ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's watered-down copper tariffs almost crush Comex premium
By Lewis Jackson BEIJING (Reuters) -Benchmark copper prices on the London Metals Exchange rose at the open on Thursday as markets continued to claw back the once-mighty U.S. copper price premium in response to the scaled-down U.S. copper tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Trump said on Wednesday the United States would impose a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring, but the levy fell short of the sweeping restrictions expected and left out copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes. The surprise move dragged down U.S. copper prices more than 18% on the Comex exchange HGc2 and unwound a large part of the premium over the London global benchmark CMCU3 that had grown in recent weeks, with shipments diverted there in anticipation of higher domestic prices. 'We think the LME flips to a premium in the short term due to excess inventories in the U.S.," Anant Jatia, founder and chief investment officer at Greenland Investment Management, a hedge fund specialising in commodity arbitrage trading, told Reuters. "Over time Comex moves back to a premium as inventories draw and downstream tariffs leave a sustained U.S. premium." Benchmark LME copper gained 0.9% to $9,785 a metric ton after markets opened on Thursday. U.S. September Comex copper futures HGc2 briefly hit $4.5095 a lb or $9,941.6 per metric ton, down 19%, shortly after the LME opened before moving back up to hover around 4.5635 a lb or 10,061 a metric ton. At the low, the premium over the London benchmark had fallen to just $157 a ton from recent levels above $3,000 a ton. That premium has sucked in enormous volumes of copper from around the world this year. As recently as a few weeks ago, traders were still redirecting cargoes to the United States in a rush to get copper in country before the tariffs. Trump first teased the tariff in early July, implying that it would apply to all types of the red metal, ranging from cathodes produced by mines and smelters to wiring and other finished products. Yet in a proclamation released by the White House, the administration said the tariff will apply starting this Friday only to pipes, tubes and other semi-finished copper products, as well as products that copper is heavily used to manufacture, including cable and electrical components. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's watered-down copper tariffs almost crush Comex premium
By Lewis Jackson BEIJING (Reuters) -Benchmark copper prices on the London Metals Exchange rose at the open on Thursday as markets continued to claw back the once-mighty U.S. copper price premium in response to the scaled-down U.S. copper tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Trump said on Wednesday the United States would impose a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring, but the levy fell short of the sweeping restrictions expected and left out copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes. The surprise move dragged down U.S. copper prices more than 18% on the Comex exchange HGc2 and unwound a large part of the premium over the London global benchmark CMCU3 that had grown in recent weeks, with shipments diverted there in anticipation of higher domestic prices. 'We think the LME flips to a premium in the short term due to excess inventories in the U.S.," Anant Jatia, founder and chief investment officer at Greenland Investment Management, a hedge fund specialising in commodity arbitrage trading, told Reuters. "Over time Comex moves back to a premium as inventories draw and downstream tariffs leave a sustained U.S. premium." Benchmark LME copper gained 0.9% to $9,785 a metric ton after markets opened on Thursday. U.S. September Comex copper futures HGc2 briefly hit $4.5095 a lb or $9,941.6 per metric ton, down 19%, shortly after the LME opened before moving back up to hover around 4.5635 a lb or 10,061 a metric ton. At the low, the premium over the London benchmark had fallen to just $157 a ton from recent levels above $3,000 a ton. That premium has sucked in enormous volumes of copper from around the world this year. As recently as a few weeks ago, traders were still redirecting cargoes to the United States in a rush to get copper in country before the tariffs. Trump first teased the tariff in early July, implying that it would apply to all types of the red metal, ranging from cathodes produced by mines and smelters to wiring and other finished products. Yet in a proclamation released by the White House, the administration said the tariff will apply starting this Friday only to pipes, tubes and other semi-finished copper products, as well as products that copper is heavily used to manufacture, including cable and electrical components. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
