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New York Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- New York Times
Vladislav Gavrikov's next contract and the contract-year phenomenon
Few players took a larger and more unexpected leap than Vladislav Gavrikov did this past season. That the hulking, 29-year-old shutdown defensemen is up for a new contract this summer is probably no coincidence. Every year, it feels like the cream of the free-agency crop summons the best of their abilities just in time for a big payday, and Gavrikov's meteoric rise in 2024-25 was no exception. That makes his next contract a bit tricky to price. Advertisement Should teams pay Gavrikov for what he proved he can be last season: one of the league's premier defensemen worthy of a top-pair role? Or should they heed caution based on what he was before that: a decent defensive No. 3? Based on colleague James Mirtle's intel from the draft combine, the answer seems to be that some teams value Gavrikov based on his current contract year level as a true top-pair guy. That's a potentially dangerous thought. Mirtle threw out a possible asking price of $8.5 million on max term. That's a dollar amount whose expected value is almost right in line with where Gavrikov finished after the 2024-25 season: a projected Net Rating of plus-7.1. Over the life of a seven-year contract, the expectation on such a deal drops to plus-2.7 by the end. Essentially, it starts at low-end No. 1 defenseman money and finishes at low-end No. 2 defenseman money. If we're certain that's what Gavrikov is at this point in his career, and we think Gavrikov can age fairly well, that's not a horrible bet to make. It's the certainty of what Gavrikov currently is that creates risk, though — a huge 'if' based on a contract-year performance which may prove difficult to replicate. Financial incentive can be a massive motivator for athletes, as it would be for any human. It doesn't fuel everybody to the same degree, but it's hard to deny it doesn't have some impact on a person's psyche. With millions of extra dollars on the line, it should come as no surprise that players perform better with the potential of higher earnings on the line. It's human nature and something fans in all sports have anecdotally witnessed in the past. Here's what I found regarding the contract-year phenomenon, focusing on players expected to earn the most where aging was less of a concern. Over the last five seasons, there have been 100 unrestricted free agent skaters aged 31 or younger projected to earn an above-average contract according to Evolving-Hockey's contract projections. Those 100 players were expected to see their projected Net Rating decline by 0.29 goals due to age. They instead improved by 0.55 goals, a 0.84-goal difference. That's the contract-year bump, something 58 percent of the sample experienced. Advertisement Perhaps more interesting is what happens next: a steep decline back to reality. The expected drop after getting a new contract for the 100 players based on their age was 0.46 goals (or 0.75 goals in total). The actual decline was 1.59 goals (1.04 goals in total), completely erasing the contract-year bump and moving below the initial baseline. 65 percent of the selected skaters saw a post-contract decline larger than expected given their age. This is hardly a definitive study, given I'm looking at just the last five seasons and only 100 players in total. But there is probably some smoke here to a phenomenon many fans are familiar with, and it should be reason enough to be wary of big jumps coincidentally timed with massive financial incentives. For players of this age, what goes up must come down, and the downturn is often far sharper than the upswing. Gavrikov, for the record, has the 10th largest contract-year leap within this sample of players. Not far below him is former L.A. King Matt Roy, a defenseman who earned a lot as a free agent last summer and serves as a potential warning sign. Like Gavrikov, Roy too looked like a defensively elite free agent, only to struggle to live up to his contract-year hype. While Roy was solid in his first season with Washington, he looked a lot closer to his 2022-23 level rather than his contract-year level, putting his contract on the wrong side of the 'good value' line. Not by a lot, but the math has changed on Roy as a result. The contract-year bump, as it often is, was a mirage. There are exceptions to the rule, but when it comes to free agents, if it feels too good to be true, it probably is. Gavrikov, having a career year at this age while staring down free agency, fits the bill. None of this is meant to take away from what Gavrikov accomplished last year for the Kings. It's just meant to be pragmatic about what to expect of Gavrikov's 30s — and not overpay for it. It's worth mentioning that I have previously been extremely wrong about Gavrikov, specifically at the 2023 trade deadline while he was with Columbus. An older version of the model did poorly with defensive players playing a lot of tough minutes on bad teams, wrongly rewarding 'efficiency' without taking into account that there's a reason players like Gavrikov played at the top of the lineup. There wasn't enough respect for the high likelihood that Gavrikov was in that role because he was truly the best option for it. The current version of the model is better at handling those problems and would've likened Gavrikov to a No. 4 at the time rather than replacement level (oops). Still wrong, but less wrong. Advertisement The point is that Gavrikov proved me completely wrong then (and since by leaping up the lineup), and there is certainly a chance he can do so again with last year's level serving as his new normal. With only six seasons under his belt and not a lot of taxing playoff miles on his body, there's a real chance Gavrikov is a late bloomer who can buck the usual age trend and have a strong career from 30 to 35. And while I do believe Gavrikov can age well, it's the current level that I'm less sure about, where a market correction next year wouldn't be surprising. Interestingly, that's what a comp-based age curve does forecast: a steep drop next season, but a relatively graceful curve after that. The model projects a path that has Gavrikov playing above-average defensive hockey for the next six years as a No. 2/3. The average cost of that comes in at around $6.5 million over the next seven seasons. That's a fair bit lower than the $7.6 million deal AFP Analytics is expecting for Gavrikov, though higher than Evolving Hockey's $5.6 million over four seasons. The height Gavrikov reached last season means there's room for some expected decline without major concern. A few of his comps — Johnny Boychuk, Ryan McDonagh, Paul Martin, Chris Tanev — maintained a high defensive level throughout their early 30s, enough to be optimistic about Gavrikov's future. But there's a reason there's also a lot of downside risk in every year of Gavrikov's deal, as the potential for a cliff at any point in his 30s is also very real. Marc Methot, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and David Savard were all great defenders at one point but fell off hard over a single-season span. In the blink of an eye, they were washed, and that's the risk with signing any rugged defensive defender for what are likely his twilight years. That's where figuring out the right length of term for Gavrikov is also crucial. Gavrikov's career trajectory has been a fascinating one, and he's proven himself well over the last few years with the Kings. He's looked like a legit defensive ace for the team and a guy who can be the missing piece for a team's top four. But it's hard not to be worried about what's next and whether last year's leap to defensive stardom can be repeated. Advertisement Gavrikov looks like one of the league's best defensive defensemen right now. Is that a contract-year mirage or a sign of what's to come? If a team is paying big money for the latter, they better be sure of it — and the odds aren't in their favour. — Data via Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Alan Roden's RBI double
Blues Have Clear Free-Agent Defenseman To Target One area the St. Louis Blues should be looking to improve this off-season is the right side of their defense. Bringing in a top-four right-shot defenseman would certainly give their roster a boost as they look take another step forward in 2025-26. 4:17 Now Playing Paused Ad Playing
Reuters
28-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Mammoth sign D Dmitri Simashev to three-year ELC
May 28 - Defenseman Dmitri Simashev signed his three-year, entry-level contract with the Utah Mammoth, the team announced Wednesday. Simashev, 20, was selected by the Arizona Coyotes (now Mammoth) with the sixth overall pick of the 2023 NHL Draft. "We are thrilled to sign Dmitri to an NHL contract," general manager Bill Armstrong said in a statement. "Dmitri has established himself as one of the top defenseman prospects in the NHL and we look forward to watching him play for the Mammoth for many years to come." The 6-foot-5 Simashev recorded six points (one goal, five assists), four penalty minutes and 54 blocked shots in 56 regular-season games for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl of the Kontinental Hockey League in 2024-25. --Field Level Media
New York Times
22-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Jaccob Slavin, ‘a walking manual for how to play defense,' has earned this moment
RALEIGH, N.C. — For six years, Matthew Tkachuk and the most underrated elite defenseman in the NHL were ships passing in the night. Tkachuk had heard things about Jaccob Slavin, of course. How could you not? The backbone of the Carolina Hurricanes might be under-discussed, but he is not invisible. But when Tkachuk played for the Calgary Flames, he only had to deal with Slavin twice a year, limiting his firsthand experience and forcing him to base most of his opinion on the words of others. Advertisement In the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, his appreciation grew. 'Each game you play (Slavin) you see something different,' Tkachuk said. To truly learn what Slavin is about, though, is to skate with him. To watch him up close — and on that front, thanks to the 11-year absence of true best-on-best international hockey, Tkachuk never had the opportunity. In February 2025, that changed. 'At that (4 Nations Face-Off),' Tkachuk said. 'I really saw how unbelievable a player he is. 'Defensively, his stick, blocking shots, the little plays he'd make. He got every shot through. Like, the little stuff that people don't get credit for that you might look at — the top point-getters in the league for (defensemen) get all the credit. But I mean, he's right up there with the best in the world.' It made sense, then, for Tkachuk to help start a moment that Slavin, three months later, still seems to be living inside. He had already been one of the tournament's breakout stars in the United States; broadcast crews on ESPN and TNT decided, en masse, that it was time for the guy who does the little things better than anyone to assume a larger platform. Tkachuk helped it along. Wearing a microphone for the 4 Nations final against Canada, Tkachuk, along with his brother Brady and Detroit Red Wings center Dylan Larkin, were recorded on the Team U.S. bench gassing up Slavin for one of his signature skills. 'What a stick, Slavo,' Tkachuk yelled. 'That was special.' On May 15, Capitals coach Spencer Carbery pushed the snowball even further down the hill, moments after his team's season ended. Carbery could've opened his media conference by saying anything about anyone. He chose to gas up the guy who'd tortured Washington most acutely in their five-game series, keeping the Capitals in neutral and turning yet another appreciator into a true believer. Advertisement 'He doesn't get enough credit,' Carbery said. 'I think he's started to get credit since the 4 Nations. Jaccob Slavin — how he's not in the Norris Trophy conversation every single year, it doesn't seem right. Obviously the guys that are there are tremendous players in their own right, but that is one heck of a player. 'This team — and that's the reason I mentioned Slavin early, because he leads the charge in this — they are just relentless with their pressure. And their ability to break plays up with their sticks, there's no team in the league like 'em.' Slavin, for his part, appreciates the shine but says he doesn't require it. A lyric from the Christian artist Lecrae — 'If you live for their acceptance, you'll die from their rejection' — is never far from his mind. Why this degree of recognition was delayed is, in all likelihood, due to a combination of factors. The Hurricanes play in a small market, which never helps. Their head coach is the face of their franchise, which is uncommon. Slavin's game revolves around breaking up plays, batting down passes and cutting off puck carriers, which takes him out of the Cale Makar class. 'Slavin doesn't get that (level of attention),' Minnesota Wild and Team USA defenseman Brock Faber said. 'And so you never really understand the impact he can make on a game, with basically just being invisible, when you don't notice him. He's the best because he's just closing plays. He's not turning the puck over. He's doing so many little things that just go unnoticed that make such an impact.' Slavin's 2024-25 season was, for him, boilerplate; he was seventh among regular NHL defensemen in both scoring chance percentage (57.4) and expected goals percentage (56.4) at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. He did all that playing tough minutes against elite competition, and he did it while leading one of the NHL's best penalty kills. That's who he is, and it's who he's been for years. Advertisement In any case, the recognition has arrived. And it's deserved, regardless of how much time Slavin spends on tracking it. 'I think anybody would say it's nice to have it happen that way and people starting to notice that you're a good player, but at the end of the day for myself, it's just words,' Slavin said. 'It's not where my identity lies. That's not where my confidence comes from.' And that confidence, if you watch closely enough, manifests on ice. What other word would you use to describe the goal Slavin scored to put Carolina up 2-0 in Game 4 of their first-round series against the New Jersey Devils? Slavin, already inside New Jersey's blue line, pressured Devils forward Stefan Noesen even further, denying the clearing attempt and setting up a bad-angle shot for himself that he still managed to bury. It didn't happen quickly enough to miss — but it might have happened too quickly for the full impact to fully register. 'Most players in that situation would be trying to get their stick in the lane, hoping to deflect the clearing attempt. Jaccob doesn't just try to get his stick on it; he swings his stick down toward the puck like a fly swatter,' Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky said. 'The audacity of that play is incredible — he's not just trying to deflect the dump-out, he's trying to catch it! And he does, and then he finishes the play with a perfect shot, but it all starts with a defensive stick play that I don't think anyone else in the league would even try to make.' Scott Morrow feels the same. The Hurricanes rookie defenseman, with all of 17 NHL games under his belt, has spent large chunks of the last few months watching Slavin at practice, on video and from the press box. In some ways, Morrow said, Slavin is 'a walking manual for how to play defense.' In others, well … 'He's an alien, almost, with how good he is at some of this stuff,' Morrow said. 'I try and learn as much as I can, but there's some things where I'm like, 'Oh man, I don't know if I could ever be as good as this guy at this specific thing.'' Advertisement Such as? 'The way he bats pucks out of the air, like, instinctively,' Morrow said. 'If I'm playing a rush, I have my stick on the ice trying to take away the passing lanes, but he's got the whole airspace covered as well. It's insane how he has 3-4 a game where he just knocks out of the air and kills the play. It's incredible to watch.' That doesn't just apply to rookies, either. Longtime teammates can be amazed, too. 'You try and get it through him and when you do, you get pretty excited about it. That's like scoring a goal. So you cheer pretty hard when you can get it through him or get it by him,' said Jordan Martinook, who has played with Slavin since 2018. 'Obviously, we're lucky to see that every day and we're not gonna take it for granted, because he's an incredible player and it's nice that he starts getting some recognition that he deserves.'
