Latest news with #economicforecast
Reuters
5 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Euro zone wage growth slowing as expected, ECB data shows
FRANKFURT, July 30 (Reuters) - Euro zone wage growth will slow sharply this year, as predicted by economists, the European Central Bank's wage-tracker showed on Wednesday, supporting the bank's argument that excessive inflation has now been defeated. The ECB's wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates that negotiated wage growth, with smoothed one-off payments, was 4.6% in 2024 and would slow to 3.2% in 2025. For the first quarter of 2026, the headline ECB wage tracker stands at 1.7%, down from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the ECB added. The figures are broadly in line with previous numbers in the tracker and suggest that wage growth is no longer a concerning issue for policymakers.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
CFIB foresees recession in Canada, with economic contractions in Q2 and Q3
TORONTO — The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is forecasting a recession in Canada this year. A new report from CFIB shows it's forecasting that growth declined 0.8 per cent in the second quarter and will contract by a further 0.8 per cent in the third quarter. The group says an analysis of the impact of tariffs on supply chains highlights that most firms are anticipating long-term disruptions. CFIB chief economist Simon Gaudreault says the uncertain trade situation is impacting business confidence, resulting in paused or cancelled investments. Private investment is expected to fall 13 per cent in the second quarter and continue to decline by 6.9 per cent in the third quarter. Despite the anticipated downturn, CFIB highlights that inflation remains stable, putting the Bank of Canada in a better position to consider easing borrowing costs in the second half of the year. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 24, 2025. The Canadian Press Sign in to access your portfolio
Telegraph
14-07-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
The pension triple lock is a self-inflicted disaster
Last week it was the turn of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to deliver more bad news for Rachel Reeves, when producing its latest report on Britain's fiscal prospects. The OBR often comes in for a lot of stick – most of it unjustified. It does a good job of laying out unpalatable truths for politicians. Like more or less everyone else, it is pretty bad at forecasting the fiscal numbers over the coming year, and equally undistinguished at the five-year forecasting which underpins the Chancellor's fiscal rules. So what it says about the period out to 2070 invites being taken with the proverbial barrel of salt. Yet these long-term projections should be taken seriously. The OBR's fiscal picture is pretty alarming. At the end of 2024, the UK's fiscal deficit was 5.7pc of GDP, which was the fifth highest among 36 advanced countries. At 94pc, the ratio of government debt to GDP is the sixth highest among advanced economies after Japan, Greece, Italy, France and the US. Incidentally, in 1976 when the then-Labour government negotiated a loan from the IMF, our debt ratio was just under 50pc. Commentators often talk about the danger that the bond markets will react negatively to our worrying fiscal prospects. In practice, however, they already have. UK 10-year bond yields are standing at about 4.6pc. For those of us who can remember 16-17pc yields in the early 1980s, that doesn't sound too bad. But this is currently the third-highest 10-year government bond yield of any advanced country, after New Zealand and Iceland.
Reuters
03-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
UK firms trim year-ahead wage growth expectations, BoE survey shows
LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - British businesses have trimmed their expectations for wage growth over the coming year, a Bank of England survey conducted in June showed on Thursday. Firms expected wage growth of 3.6%, down 0.1 percentage points on a three-month moving-average basis, according to the survey. It added that in June, 29% of British businesses expected sales to be lower in the year ahead due to U.S. trade policy changes, while 24% of firms expected that their capital expenditures would be lower.
Wall Street Journal
02-07-2025
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
RBA Could Sit It Out in July to Await Greater Clarity on CPI Outlook
SYDNEY—there is every chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain sidelined at its policy meeting next week, and choose to wait for second-quarter inflation data at the end of this month and a new economic forecasts in August, rather than cut the official cash rate a third time this year. Money markets have fully priced in a further reduction in the OCR, with traders seeing recent inflation data as a clear signal that the RBA has scope to cut again, and pointing to more reductions later in the year.
