Latest news with #economies
Irish Times
7 days ago
- Climate
- Irish Times
Global temperatures could break heat record in next five years
There is an 80 per cent chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record in the next five years, raising the risk of extreme droughts, floods and forest fires, a new report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has shown. For the first time, the data also indicated a small likelihood that before 2030, the world could experience a year that is 2 degrees hotter than the preindustrial era, a possibility scientists described as 'shocking'. Coming after the hottest 10 years ever measured, the latest medium-term global climate update highlights the growing threat to human health, national economies and natural landscapes unless people stop burning oil, gas, coal and trees. The update, which synthesises short-term weather observations and long-term climate projections, said there was a 70 per cent chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. READ MORE This would put the world perilously close to breaking the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, an international climate change treaty, though that goal is based on an average over 20 years. It also reported an 86 per cent likelihood that 1.5 degrees would be passed in at least one of the next five years, up from 40 per cent in the 2020 report. In 2024, the 1.5-degree threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time – an outcome that was considered implausible in any of the five-year predictions before 2014. Last year was the hottest in the 175-year observational record. Underscoring how rapidly the world is warming, even 2 degrees is now appearing as a statistical possibility in the latest update, which is compiled by 220 ensemble members from models contributed by 15 different institutes, including the UK's Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and Deutscher Wetterdienst. The likelihood of 2 degrees before 2030 is tiny – about 1 per cent – and would require a convergence of multiple warming factors, such as a strong El Niño and positive Arctic Oscillation, but it was previously considered impossible in a five-year time frame. 'It is shocking that 2C is plausible,' said Adam Scaife of the Met Office, which played a leading role in compiling the data. 'It has come out as only 1 per cent in the next five years but the probability will increase as the climate warms.' The impacts will not fall equally. Arctic winters are predicted to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average, partly because sea ice is melting, which means snow falls directly into the ocean rather than forming a layer on the surface to reflect the sun's heat back into space. The Amazon rainforest is predicted to suffer more droughts while south Asia, the Sahel and northern Europe, including the UK, will see more rain. The Met Office's Leon Hermanson, who led the production of the report, said 2025 is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record. Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO, described a 'worrying picture' for heatwaves and human health. However, he said it was still not too late to limit warming if fossil fuel emissions are cut. 'We must take climate action,' he said. '1.5C is not inevitable.' – Guardian
The Guardian
28-05-2025
- Climate
- The Guardian
Global temperatures could break heat record in next five years
There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record in the next five years, raising the risk of extreme droughts, floods and forest fires, a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has shown. For the first time, the data also indicated a small likelihood that before 2030, the world could experience a year that is 2C hotter than the preindustrial era, a possibility scientists described as 'shocking'. Coming after the hottest 10 years ever measured, the latest medium-term global climate update highlights the growing threat to human health, national economies and natural landscapes unless people stop burning oil, gas, coal and trees. The update, which synthesises short-term weather observations and long-term climate projections, said there was a 70% chance that five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5C above preindustrial levels. This would put the world perilously close to breaking the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement, an international climate change treaty, though that goal is based on an average over 20 years. It also reported an 86% likelihood that 1.5C would be passed in at least one of the next five years, up from 40% in the 2020 report. In 2024, the 1.5C threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time – an outcome that was considered implausible in any of the five-year predictions before 2014. Last year was the hottest in the 175-year observational record. Underscoring how rapidly the world is warming, even 2C is now appearing as a statistical possibility in the latest update, which is compiled by 220 ensemble members from models contributed by 15 different institutes, including the UK's Met Office, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and Deutscher Wetterdienst. The likelihood of 2C before 2030 is tiny – about 1% – and would require a convergence of multiple warming factors, such as a strong El Niño and positive Arctic Oscillation, but it was previously considered impossible in a five-year timeframe. 'It is shocking that 2C is plausible,' said Adam Scaife of the Met Office, which played a leading role in compiling the data. 'It has come out as only 1% in the next five years but the probability will increase as the climate warms.' The impacts will not fall equally. Arctic winters are predicted to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average, partly because sea ice is melting, which means snow falls directly into the ocean rather than forming a layer on the surface to reflect the sun's heat back into space. The Amazon rainforest is predicted to suffer more droughts while south Asia, the Sahel and northern Europe, including the UK, will see more rain. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion The Met Office's Leon Hermanson, who led the production of the report, said 2025 is likely to be one of the three warmest years on record. Chris Hewitt, director of climate services at the WMO, described a 'worrying picture' for heatwaves and human health. However, he said it was still not too late to limit warming if fossil fuel emissions are cut. 'We must take climate action,' he said. '1.5C is not inevitable.'
Bloomberg
24-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Why Asia May Invest More in Its Own Backyard
What's old is new again, as the saying goes. In the years following the 2008 global financial crisis, economies and investors had to contend with (or were happy to enjoy) dramatically lower interest rates than those that prevailed prior to what came to be known as the Great Recession. Those days now appear over.
Telegraph
24-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Investors have stopped using this reliable yardstick. Don't you be so blind
But why did it break? Under the hood, 2022's failure evolved exactly because the curve normally reflected banking's eagerness to lend. It failed because banks at that time had accumulated a huge stockpiled hangover of super low-cost deposits, letting them profitably keep lending. That stockpile came and never left because of extraordinary cash hoarding from Covid's life and death terror and its aftermath. The banks' deposit base costs remained firmly below 1pc globally while central banks everywhere hiked sovereign rates in an attempt to fight inflation, a never-before-seen combo. With such a large, low-cost deposit base, banks kept lending. Economies grew modestly, and stocks rose in shock. Yield curves spent 2023 and most of 2024 inverted, becoming boring to most. Then, they silently started steepening, flipping to positive virtually unnoticed. That came partly as some central banks cut short-term sovereign rates (like here and Europe, which now, unlike 2022, did further help banks' costs), and partly because long-term rates rose from prior lower levels, which most view with dread (dread being also bullish). Because money flows almost freely across borders, I've long calculated a GDP-weighted global yield curve of all countries. It better reflects reality because economies and stock indexes mostly move in the same direction globally, just some more, some less. In 12 months it flipped from an inverted -.48pc to 90-day rates being 0.44pc below 10-year rates – a quiet shift of almost 1pc and a large figure in these contexts. Even a small positive spread shift is more powerful than you may think, boosting lending and banking profitability. It doesn't rule out recession or bear market, given so many uncertainties now and ahead. But it is a cagey counterforce to today's gloom.
Bloomberg
12-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US-China Trade Talks to Boost Sentiment in Asia, Strategists Say
'Substantial progress' made in US-China trade relations after two days of talks in Switzerland is likely to boost sentiment in Asia, according to some strategists, while others were awaiting further details. While neither side immediately announced specific measures on Sunday, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said the world's two biggest economies agreed to create a mechanism for further discussions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would share details on Monday.
