Latest news with #ecosystems
Fast Company
a day ago
- Politics
- Fast Company
Managers rethink ecological scenarios as threats rise amid climate change
In Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in California, trees that have persisted through rain and shine for thousands of years are now facing multiple threats triggered by a changing climate. Scientists and park managers once thought giant sequoia forests were nearly impervious to stressors like wildfire, drought and pests. Yet, even very large trees are proving vulnerable, particularly when those stressors are amplified by rising temperatures and increasing weather extremes. The rapid pace of climate change—combined with threats like the spread of invasive species and diseases—can affect ecosystems in ways that defy expectations based on past experiences. As a result, Western forests are transitioning to grasslands or shrublands after unprecedented wildfires. Woody plants are expanding into coastal wetlands. Coral reefs are being lost entirely. To protect these places, which are valued for their natural beauty and the benefits they provide for recreation, clean water and wildlife, forest and land managers increasingly must anticipate risks they have never seen before. And they must prepare for what those risks will mean for stewardship as ecosystems rapidly transform. As ecologists and a climate scientist, we're helping them figure out how to do that. Managing changing ecosystems Traditional management approaches focus on maintaining or restoring how ecosystems looked and functioned historically. However, that doesn't always work when ecosystems are subjected to new and rapidly shifting conditions. Ecosystems have many moving parts—plants, animals, fungi, and microbes; and the soil, air and water in which they live—that interact with one another in complex ways. When the climate changes, it's like shifting the ground on which everything rests. The results can undermine the integrity of the system, leading to ecological changes that are hard to predict. To plan for an uncertain future, natural resource managers need to consider many different ways changes in climate and ecosystems could affect their landscapes. Essentially, what scenarios are possible? Preparing for multiple possibilities At Sequoia and Kings Canyon, park managers were aware that climate change posed some big risks to the iconic trees under their care. More than a decade ago, they undertook a major effort to explore different scenarios that could play out in the future. It's a good thing they did, because some of the more extreme possibilities they imagined happened sooner than expected. In 2014, drought in California caused the giant sequoias' foliage to die back, something never documented before. In 2017, sequoia trees began dying from insect damage. And, in 2020 and 2021, fires burned through sequoia groves, killing thousands of ancient trees. While these extreme events came as a surprise to many people, thinking through the possibilities ahead of time meant the park managers had already begun to take steps that proved beneficial. One example was prioritizing prescribed burns to remove undergrowth that could fuel hotter, more destructive fires. The key to effective planning is a thoughtful consideration of a suite of strategies that are likely to succeed in the face of many different changes in climates and ecosystems. That involves thinking through wide-ranging potential outcomes to see how different strategies might fare under each scenario—including preparing for catastrophic possibilities, even those considered unlikely. For example, prescribed burning may reduce risks from both catastrophic wildfire and drought by reducing the density of plant growth, whereas suppressing all fires could increase those risks in the long run. Strategies undertaken today have consequences for decades to come. Managers need to have confidence that they are making good investments when they put limited resources toward actions like forest thinning, invasive species control, buying seeds or replanting trees. Scenarios can help inform those investment choices. Constructing credible scenarios of ecological change to inform this type of planning requires considering the most important unknowns. Scenarios look not only at how the climate could change, but also how complex ecosystems could react and what surprises might lay beyond the horizon. Key ingredients for crafting ecological scenarios To provide some guidance to people tasked with managing these landscapes, we brought together a group of experts in ecology, climate science, and natural resource management from across universities and government agencies. We identified three key ingredients for constructing credible ecological scenarios: 1. Embracing ecological uncertainty: Instead of banking on one 'most likely' outcome for ecosystems in a changing climate, managers can better prepare by mapping out multiple possibilities. In Nebraska's Sandhills, we are exploring how this mostly intact native prairie could transform, with outcomes as divergent as woodlands and open dunes. 2. Thinking in trajectories: It's helpful to consider not just the outcomes, but also the potential pathways for getting there. Will ecological changes unfold gradually or all at once? By envisioning different pathways through which ecosystems might respond to climate change and other stressors, natural resource managers can identify critical moments where specific actions, such as removing tree seedlings encroaching into grasslands, can steer ecosystems toward a more desirable future. 3. Preparing for surprises: Planning for rare disasters or sudden species collapses helps managers respond nimbly when the unexpected strikes, such as a severe drought leading to widespread erosion. Being prepared for abrupt changes and having contingency plans can mean the difference between quickly helping an ecosystem recover and losing it entirely. Over the past decade, access to climate model projections through easy-to-use websites has revolutionized resource managers' ability to explore different scenarios of how the local climate might change. What managers are missing today is similar access to ecological model projections and tools that can help them anticipate possible changes in ecosystems. To bridge this gap, we believe the scientific community should prioritize developing ecological projections and decision-support tools that can empower managers to plan for ecological uncertainty with greater confidence and foresight.
Arab News
2 days ago
- General
- Arab News
What We Are Reading Today: ‘Becoming Earth'
Author: Ferris Jabr Published in 2024 and written by Ferris Jabr, 'Becoming Earth' talks about how the planet we know and live in started and came to life. One of the significant thoughts Jabr argues through his book is the idea that billions of years ago, life transformed from a collection of orbiting rocks into what we now know as our cosmic oasis. This process released oxygen into the atmosphere, formed seas and oceans, and shaped rocks into fertile soil. Through the book, the author also discusses various environmental systems and how they operate. He talks about the roles of microbes in shaping continents, the Amazon rainforest's self-sustaining rain cycle and the impact of human activities on planetary systems, all connected to other natural events. Surprisingly, as Jabr discusses the disadvantages of human activity leading to environmental crises, he also highlights the importance of humans in improving ecosystems. Despite the negative impacts people have had on the environment, humanity has expended a great deal of energy to understand and mitigate environmental problems, he argues. However, the book has received some criticism, with reviewers arguing that Jabr may have conflated his personal perspective on Earth with scientific research and evidence in the process of using metaphors to explain science. Other reviewers said that a few sections of 'Becoming Earth' may need improvement and more in-depth scientific evidence to support the conclusions Jabr makes.
The Independent
3 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
From record rainfall to drought: Expert reveals what's causing Europe's unusual spring weather
2025's rainy spring has brought a swift end to the droughts plaguing several Spanish regions, restoring ecosystems to parched fields, reviving withered trees and shrubs, and bringing back a lush, green landscape not seen for a long time. It has also placed the country's reservoir levels much higher than the averages of the last decade. At the same time, drought has spread across central and northern European countries that are not used to water shortages. But why have the continent's rainfall patterns been reversed? Wet north, dry south In general, northern Europe has more rain and, importantly, more rainy days than southern Europe. If we focus on the Atlantic coast, for example, Ireland is rainier than western Andalusia or the Algarve. This is only true in broad terms, though, as even southern Spain has very rainy enclaves, such as the Sierra de Grazalema in Cádiz. The explanation for Mediterranean Europe's modest rainfall and long periods of drought, in contrast to the damp, green landscapes of northern Europe, lies in general atmospheric currents. In the mid and high latitudes of Europe, atmospheric circulation is characterised by prevailing westerly Atlantic, and therefore humid, winds. This is often associated with low-pressure areas, which bring warm and cold fronts. These weather systems usually move from southwest to northeast, and their fronts bring frequent, moderate rainfall. South of these prevailing westerly winds, we enter the Mediterranean latitudes, where the atmosphere is more usually marked by higher pressure. At higher altitudes of 5,500m and above, these latitudes form the northern boundary of the Subtropical High, a large belt of subtropical-tropical anticyclones that encircles the globe. The anticyclonic belt has its axis near 30° latitude in both hemispheres. It influences the climate of the world's largest tropical deserts, such as the Sahara and Arabian deserts in the northern hemisphere, and the Great Australian Desert in the south. The Azores High – a seemingly permanent fixture on weather maps of its namesake archipelago – is one of the links in the aforementioned belt. It acts as a barrier to Atlantic storms, meaning they do not usually reach much of the Iberian Peninsula as frequently as they do in more northerly countries. Indeed, it is typical to see a ridge or prolongation of the Azores anticyclone encompassing the Iberian Peninsula. This causes very clear, stable weather with no rain (except for perhaps a light drizzle on the northern Cantabrian coast). What happened this spring? The normal pattern is sometimes reversed. This often means a low-pressure area in south-western Europe, towards the Gulf of Cádiz, and an anticyclone in the north or centre of the continent, in the British Isles, Scandinavia and Central Europe. This anticyclone in latitudes further north than Spain and Portugal is called a blocking anticyclone, because it prevents the circulation of the typical westerly winds. This means heavy or even torrential rainfall in south-western Europe, and dry spells in more northerly regions. This situation occurred in the spring of 2025, with very heavy rainfall in many regions of Spain and drought in northern Europe. One question many will doubtless be asking is whether this inversion is a consequence of climate change. The answer is, at least in principle, no. In fact, there are many examples of similar springs in the past, such as those of 2013 and 2018. Indeed, the Spanish even have proverbs about spring's unpredictable and rainy weather – 'marzo ventoso y abril lluvioso, dejan a mayo florido y hermoso' (almost) literally translates into 'March winds and April showers bring forth May flowers'. It is true that the spring of 2025 has been exceptionally rainy in much of Spain, especially in the month of March, which saw two and a half times the normal amount of rainfall. A quarter of the observatories in the AEMET, the Spanish State Meteorological Agency, recorded the wettest March since 1961. The Retiro measuring station, in central Madrid, recorded 235.4mm in March – more than twice its annual average. It is also no coincidence that, precisely because of their northern location on the Iberian Peninsula, some regions between Galicia and the Basque Country have been the exception and received below-average rainfall.
RNZ News
4 days ago
- Climate
- RNZ News
Kelp, Pōhutukawa and other vegetation could slow down tsunamis
A typical New Zealand kelp forest. Photo: Supplied / GNS Science New research from GNS Science reveals natural ecosystems, such as kelp forests, can slow down the speed of tsunamis in New Zealand. The pilot study was carried out in Napier and looked at both natural and manmade tsunami defences along the coastline using computer simulated models. These mimicked the resistant forces of each ecosystem and compared the maximum inundation extent, flow depth and speed, and where areas may have been eroded and sediments deposited. The ecosystems, also known as bioshields, included kelp forest, Pohutukawa trees, a restored estuary, a sea wall, an artificial reef and a combination of vegetation types. Researchers found the most effective one for slowing down tsunami currents was a combination of natural bioshields. Lead researcher and GNS tsunami scientist Jean Roger told RNZ he had been wanting to do this study for years. He said that was because it can help coastal areas better understand what natural and artificial bioshields can be used to lessen the impact of tsunamis - which can damage infrastructure and smother natural environments in sediment. "We found that this friction produced by ecosystems may be able to reduce the floor speed of the tsunami - which is something very important," he said. Vegetation areas in Napier that were applied in the tsunami simulation. Photo: Supplied / GNS Science The modelled scenario showed a significant reduction in sediment transport around bridge infrastructure, which can weaken the piles and increase the risk of collapse. "We also did some sediment transport simulation to see what these ecosystems can provide in reducing sediment movement during an event. We found it will reduce it in some locations," said Roger. The research is preliminary, so he said they need to do many more simulations to be sure that there is a large impact on the reduction of tsunami speed. The researchers already knew that mangroves can reduce tsunami speed, but this is the first study to look at New Zealand ecosystems such as kelp forests and pohutakawa trees. Roger said these findings can benefit many coastal areas of New Zealand and should be considered by local councils. "We hope that this research will provide decision makers, including councils and industries, with science-backed solutions for resilience planning and land use decisions to have more consideration of the benefits of coastal ecosystems in terms of coastal protection," he said. While this study was based in Napier due to limited time and resource, Roger is keen to see it expanded further. "Following on from this research we hope to work closely with government and industry stakeholders to come up with the most effective tailored nature-based solutions for individual areas and circumstances," he said. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
CTV News
6 days ago
- General
- CTV News
Native plants better than No Mow May for pollinators, northern group says
Northern Ontario Watch Clean North in Sault Ste. Marie urges homeowners to skip "No Mow May" and plant native species instead, supporting pollinators year-round, warning that dandelions harm local ecosystems. Ian Campbell explains.
