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E&E News
6 days ago
- Business
- E&E News
EIA: Oil production to fall as prices drop to pandemic levels
Domestic oil production is forecast to drop more than previously expected in 2026 as average global prices sink to levels not seen since the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. The price for a barrel of benchmark Brent crude could fall from an average of $71 a barrel last month to $58 a barrel by the fourth quarter to around $50 a barrel early next year, EIA officials wrote in the agency's August Short-Term Energy Outlook. By 2026, the agency said Tuesday in a release, U.S. producers could 'pull back' on new production, shrinking output by an estimated 100,000 barrels a day on an average annual basis from 2025 to 2026. Advertisement 'There's a lot of uncertainty in the petroleum market,' acting EIA Administrator Stephen Nalley said in a statement. 'In the past, we have seen significant drops in oil price when inventories grow as quickly as we are expecting in the coming months.'
Bloomberg
14-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
UK Grid Operator Boosts Forecast for Electricity Demand Growth
UK power demand is set to increase by more than previously forecast due to higher population growth rates and the electrification of the economy, according to the National Energy System Operator. Electricity demand is expected to grow by more than 30% to a range of 370 to 408 terawatt-hours by 2035, NESO said on Monday. That range is about 8% higher than similar analysis a year ago.
Reuters
25-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Japan could face potential power supply crunch in 2050, grid monitor says
TOKYO, June 25 (Reuters) - Japan could face a big power shortfall in 2050 if demand surges and aging thermal power plants are not replaced and older nuclear plants are decommissioned, the country's power transmission operators said on Wednesday in a long-term forecast. For years Japan had predicted a drop in future electricity demand due to its shrinking population, but it has recently revised this outlook to reflect new demand from data centres and chip plants. Under the scenarios provided by the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators, Japan's electricity demand is projected to rise 2-25% by 2040 from 2019 before the COVID pandemic, and by 8-42% by 2050. One of the scenarios highlights an 89-gigawatt shortfall if demand reaches 1.25 terawatt-hours, the upper end of its demand forecast, in 2050. The group makes a 10-year forecast every year, but this is the first time it has produced a longer-term projection. Its general manager Shinpei Konishi told reporters the forecast was released "to enhance predictability for power operators and other stakeholders planning investments." The scenarios incorporate input from three expert organisations as well as feedback from energy industry groups and companies, and include kilowatt-hour gap analyses estimating how much thermal power would be needed to meet reserve margin requirements. The outlook reflects expected growth from expanding data centres, networks, semiconductor production, and vehicle electrification, Konishi said. In general, power industry experts are divided on how much the AI boom will increase electricity demand and the group's current forecasts also vary considerably. Among 16 scenarios for 2050, the largest projected shortfall - 89 GW - occurs under a high-demand case assuming no replacement of aging thermal power plants and decommissioning of nuclear plants more than 60 years old. Even with full replacement of thermal and nuclear capacity, a 23 GW shortfall remains under the same demand conditions. In contrast, a low-demand scenario with plant replacements shows a surplus of 12 GW. Each model assumes a summer nighttime scenario, when solar output drops and cooling demand peaks, representing the most severe conditions. The group forecasts renewable energy capacity to increase to between 170 GW and 260 GW in 2050. Japan's latest energy plan projects power generation to grow 12%-22% from 2023 levels to 1,100-1,200 TWh in 2040. The grid group's forecast sees demand reaching 900-1,100 TWh that year. It noted that its scenarios are not aligned with the government's energy plan, as they serve different purposes.
