Latest news with #fantasyfootball
New York Times
5 hours ago
- Business
- New York Times
Saquon Barkley isn't the top fantasy football pick and shouldn't even be a first-rounder
Saquon Barkley shouldn't be a first-round pick in any fantasy football league next season, and it has nothing to do with the Madden Curse. I'm not even sure he should be selected in the first two rounds, given the massive gamble he represents in 2025. I realize that sounds ludicrous, but hear me out. Advertisement Barkley set all sorts of records this past season, but there's one milestone the Philadelphia Eagles star hit that might have gone unnoticed amid all the massive stats he piled up. Barkley carried the ball more times this year (436, including the playoffs) than any running back this century, with one exception: 2014 DeMarco Murray, who matched Barkley at 436. That name — and that workload — should scare the hell out of you. At 26 years old, Murray delivered a fabulous 2014 for the Dallas Cowboys, rushing for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns on 392 carries in the regular season to go along with 57 receptions and 416 receiving yards. He finished as the RB2 in half-PPR formats (Le'Veon Bell was awesome) before signing with the Eagles for his age-27 season. He then proceeded to deeply vex Philly fans and the fantasy owners who drafted him. Despite appearing in 15 games that season, Murray's production and efficiency nosedived. He delivered a career-worst 3.6 yards per carry en route to 702 rushing yards and six touchdowns to go along with 44 catches for 332 yards. So, a year after easily eclipsing 2,000 yards from scrimmage, Murray barely made it back to 1,000 the following year. He went from the RB2 (322.6) in 2014 to the RB15 (162.1 points) in 2015. Yes, you can counter that Murray switched teams, and the Eagles may not have been as adept at deploying him as the Cowboys a year earlier. And no, he wasn't an abject disaster (and it's fair to note he split carries with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles that season), but he was a huge bust as a first-round pick in fantasy. Shockingly, as history is about to show you, for players who take on the workload Barkley just did, Murray's production in 2015 was just about the best-case scenario. And all of these other examples played for the same team following their massive seasons. Below you'll see the 12 running backs who totaled 400-plus carries in a single season (including the playoffs) this millennium, along with their total carries and fantasy finishes that year and the year after. Full disclosure: I almost included a column that displayed total touches for no other reason than to show you how ridiculously close Barkley came to touching the ball 500 times last year. He finished at 482. That's 54 more than Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs — a 23-year-old back being drafted behind the 28-year-old Barkley — has tallied in his first two NFL seasons combined. Fair warning, Barkley fans. The following graphic is not pretty. Grim, right? Murray and his RB15 finish the following year was indeed the best-case scenario. In almost every other instance, backs who shouldered this much workload went from bona fide RB1s to disasters for their league managers. Only four, including Murray, even managed to deliver RB2-type seasons, and all were around the same age as Barkley. Advertisement You know the old fantasy adage: 'You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.' This is how you lose it. Specifically, drafting Barkley in the first round this year is how you lose it. You can go case-by-case — as I did — to see what happened to these backs, but the results won't surprise you. Their bodies just couldn't hold up. They either suffered significant injuries, played through injuries or simply couldn't regain the form they showed the previous year after pushing their bodies to their limits. Now, you might think that all these examples are dated. The NFL has undergone significant changes, and sports science has advanced substantially in the decade since Murray was in the NFL. Maybe. But I'd also suggest there's a reason the NFL stopped giving running backs the type of workloads the Eagles just thrust upon Barkley. (No regrets! They won a Super Bowl!) The last running back to approach 400 carries in a season was the king himself, Derrick Henry. In 2020, the then-26-year-old Titans running back carried the ball 397 times for the Titans, amassing 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns to finish as the RB2. The next season? Henry played just eight games and finished as the RB18. It's also worth mentioning that entering that 2021 season, Henry had tallied 1,407 touches in his NFL career (regular season and playoffs). Entering the 2025 season, Barkley will have piled up nearly 600 more (1,996). Of course, Henry recovered in 2022 and has been one of the most consistent backs in fantasy since. Perhaps Barkley will prove to be even more resilient and deliver in 2025. He could defy all of the odds, but knowing what we know about his predecessors, there's no other way to look at this: He's a terrible bet to deliver RB1 production this season. The good news is that you don't have to make that bet. Just don't take him. Go with one of the elite receivers, like Ja'Marr Chase (who, coincidentally, The Athletic's Jake Ciely has as the 1.01 pick this year), or if you're hellbent on drafting an RB, Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty and Derrick Henry are much better bets to return RB1 value. Advertisement What you should do, instead, is short the Barkley market. Let others draft Barkley while you target his backups, Will Shipley and AJ Dillon. According to Fantasy Pros' consensus data, Shipley is RB78 and the 269th player overall, while Dillon is RB107 and the 349th player overall. In other words, they're free. And if/when Barkley goes down, you'll have a starting running back playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Finally, and this should go without saying, if you're in a dynasty league, it's time to move on from Barkley. Now. You can still likely get a massive haul from a contending team. Even if the managers in your league are wise enough to read articles like this, the temptation to add the consensus RB1 for the 2025 season will be too much to pass up. Take advantage. (Photo by Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
News.com.au
19 hours ago
- Entertainment
- News.com.au
SuperCoach AFL 2025: Time to get Bont, waiting on Butters, and TDK back in?
The first bye round hit some harder than others, and while The Phantom and Chief struggled, Five Names soared up the rankings with his new hairdo! Heading into what should be an 'easier' week with only Fremantle and St Kilda on the bye, the crew gathers in the Lair to pick out the best names from each team with their byes in the rear-view mirror. Plus, is Marcus Bontempelli a must-have, why we should wait on Zak Butters, and is it time to cut ties with the Lair's favourite son, Ryan Maric?
Forbes
5 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
2025 Fantasy Football Rankings: Christian McCaffrey
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 01: Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers runs with ... More the ball against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi's Stadium on October 01, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by) Even though we're extremely far out from the 2025 fantasy football season, one of the most talked about players is going to be Christian McCaffrey. There's a good reason for this, as McCaffrey has the ability to win managers their league. The downside is that McCaffrey has been injured in three out of his last five seasons. That said, the last time McCaffrey played in at least 16 games, he scored 24.5 PPG. Below, we'll be breaking down the risk versus the reward and putting McCaffrey in my 2025 fantasy football rankings. After scoring 29.4 PPG in 2019, McCaffrey has been priced extremely high in fantasy football ever since. That's why losing McCaffrey due to injury has hurt so many fantasy teams. It's extremely hard to overcome your first round pick going down for most of the year. In 2020, McCaffrey had an ADP of one on Fantasy Pros (PPR), one in 2021, two in 2022, 2.3 in 2023 and one in 2024. McCaffrey was not just priced as an elite player, but it was baked into your draft position that you were getting one of the top two players in fantasy almost every year. Now jump ahead to 2025 and McCaffrey's ADP has dropped down to 12. In fairness McCaffrey is now 28 years old, he only played in four games last season and in that stretch he only had 11.9 PPG. However, there's a clear opportunity for McCaffrey to be one of the best picks in fantasy football now that his ADP has fallen this far. LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - FEBRUARY 11: Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers looks on during ... More pregame warmups before Super Bowl LVIII against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium on February 11, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by) Since McCaffrey was a rookie in 2017, where he had 14.9 PPG, there has never been a season where a healthy McCaffrey has scored less than 21 PPG. The definition of healthy in this case is removing the years where McCaffrey played less than eight games. Especially in a PPR format, McCaffrey is going to dominate due to his elite hands and route running. In terms of his 2025 outlook, it's much better than last year. Although Deebo Samuel is gone, there's so much to be positive about. First round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall is stepping into year two, Brandon Aiyuk is coming back after missing most of 2024 with an ACL and MCL tear. On top of that, 11 time Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams should be coming into 2025 healthy, as he only played in 10 games last season. With the 49ers offense projecting out much better for 2025, McCaffrey should see a boost in his value. Most importantly, there haven't been any negative reports about McCaffrey's health. In fact, outlets such as ESPN (April 22nd) have reported on McCaffrey's injury update in a positive light. Now that we've gone over the case for McCaffrey, it's time to rank him for the 2025 fantasy football season. These rankings will be for a 1QB, PPR format. As of now, McCaffrey is the 11th ranked player in my 2025 fantasy football rankings. This makes him the RB4 as well. As of now, I'm slightly higher than consensus on McCaffrey, but he may rise even higher as I dive deeper into my research this offseason.
New York Times
6 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
Breece Hall, Bucky Irving and more fantasy football dynasty league buys and sells
Many dynasty league rookie drafts are already in the books, but more tend to occur in June, which makes it the perfect time to discuss a few targets for acquisition and some players to move on from. Player values can vary widely, not only due to disparate opinions but also because of the various roster constructions within a single league. A rebuilding team will not pay a premium for aging veterans, while competitive teams may see more value in proven production to stay ahead. When trying to value sleepers or lower-tier players, you may find it difficult to get an accurate value assessment. As is always the case, you'll get (or pay) the most for production. Advertisement Let's get into the trade targets! Henry's trade value is varying widely, and while I'm willing to offer a late first-round pick in return for the aging back, my strong preference is to keep compensation to the second round. Now 31, Henry's contract has been extended in Baltimore, and he is coming off an impressive 1,900-yard, 16-touchdown season. There's every indication he'll be a top producer for the next two seasons, and I'll take that production in return for lower draft pick compensation. The mercurial Pickens continues to be valued as a high-risk asset despite his age (24) and impressive athletic profile. I was targeting Pickens as the WR1 in Pittsburgh, but his trade to the Cowboys has increased his attractiveness while, interestingly enough, reducing his value in the market. The thought process seems to revolve around the belief that his production will be curbed playing across from CeeDee Lamb. I'm now seeing Pickens being traded for second-round draft capital, a price I'm completely comfortable parting with for his production runway, in Dallas or elsewhere. I acquired him recently for the cost of picks 2.02 and 2.09. I'm a sucker for talented receivers changing teams, especially those receiving an upgrade of quarterback and system, which is the case for Palmer, who should have an immediate role alongside Khalil Shakir and sophomore Keon Coleman. Palmer is an intelligent receiver with a good catch radius who should provide Josh Allen with a dependable veteran presence. It's not out of the question that the 25-year-old could have a career year in this quality offense. As a 19th-round (ADP) start-up value, you could do a lot worse. I was surprised the Vikings allowed Darnold to walk in free agency, instead choosing to turn the reins over to J.J. McCarthy. A poor playoff showing obviously overshadowed a 14-win regular season. For the record, I always thought Darnold was better than the offensive systems he was operating within before Minnesota's. While the Seahawks don't have the same level of weaponry as the Vikings, there's reason to believe Darnold could still be successful in that system. I've seen him swapped for compensation in the high second round, and I'd give that all day in return for the SuperFlex depth and upside he provides. Advertisement I've been seeing some crazy trades involving Hall this offseason. There is a contingent of managers selling low on Hall in an attempt to capture remaining value before it's too late. While I can support this move in some cases, I think it's a mistake with Hall. He's still young, finally healthy and now in a contract season, so I'm an aggressive buyer of Hall's profile if the price is right. I've seen some trades with Hall being swapped straight up for a pick late in the first round, or even for a high second-rounder. If you get a manager to bite at this price, run, don't walk, to get the deal done. If healthy, Williams is a far better back than his current ranking (DLF RB40). It didn't work out well in Denver, but the Cowboys gave Williams a vote of confidence by not addressing the position highly in the 2025 NFL Draft. The team also signed Miles Sanders, who could compete for the starting role, but my money is on Williams carving out a primary role. At only 25, and carrying a late second-round rookie pick cost, there's too much upside to ignore. Mayer is no slouch as a tight end. The 2023 second-round pick was a questionable selection by the Raiders, who had greater needs at the time, and the 2024 selection of Brock Bowers relegated Mayer to backup status. I'm acquiring Mayer everywhere I can, often without cost, as I expect the team to run more 12-personnel sets, thereby elevating Mayer's status. Even without a significant upgrade in production in 2024, I think there's a chance the third-year player is traded within the next year, before he finds himself in a contract year in 2026. I've been surprised at the market that still exists for Rice, which isn't to say he's not a talented receiver, but his ranking (DLF WR16) possesses too much premium for me not to consider moving on from the asset. Rice tore his ACL in Week 4 of 2024 and is still facing felony charges from his early-2024 hit-and-run incident — his trial is now expected to happen in June of this year. It's very possible that any league discipline won't come until 2026, but that's too much uncertainty for what could be only one year of production. Truth be told, I moved all shares of Rice before the end of 2024. I'm out! It's rare for me to list a rookie as a 'sell' candidate, but here I am. McMillan profiles as a long, physical and potentially game-changing receiver in the mold of Mike Evans. But, I can't shake the fact that my spidey senses tingle every time I watch his tape. Something is missing in his dynamic. Match that with a questionable drafted situation in Carolina, and I've found myself avoiding the rookie. I've learned to trust my gut feeling, even if I can't tangibly identify the issue. For McMillan, it's somewhere between his release and his loping route-running style. With more physical press coverage in the NFL, success at the next level is not guaranteed. I'm pivoting to running back or outright selling the pick that would net McMillan. I'll be watching this one closely in the future to see if I'm incorrect in my assessment. Advertisement Putting Prescott here is difficult for me, as I love him as a person and even as a player. But he's now a single-dynamic quarterback who has proven his mobility is problematic. He's spoken in the past about being less willing to run due to injury. His 2024 campaign ended after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 9. The addition of Pickens should provide production upside, but as long as I have the depth to do so, I'm trading him away to capture positional premium. Sometimes a player can do everything right and still be on my 'sell' list due to circumstances. Irving wrested the starting job away from Rachaad White in 2024, putting up impressive numbers given his 207 carries. He's young, relatively dynamic, and 2025 looks promising. That said, his size profile (5-foot-10/195 pounds), shared role and current ranking (DLF RB8) are a combination to capitalize on. Should Irving be listed closer to RB15, I'd feel differently. I like to prioritize wide receivers in my dynasty builds and look for one highly ranked RB1 starter to match with lesser-known names for production. Irving, as dynasty's RB8, is far too highly ranked and doesn't represent the profile I seek for my lead back. Size, injury and role concerns are such that I'm selling at his current price, offloading the risk I believe is present. Agree? Disagree? If you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave them below. You can follow me on Twitter and Threads: @DLF_Jeff. (Top photo of Breece Hall: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
News.com.au
6 days ago
- General
- News.com.au
Mid-season draft special, Sheezel trade or hold, and Tom Stewart time?
Rookie expert Dan Batten joins Al Paton and Chloe Williams to answer the biggest questions in SuperCoach this week.
