Latest news with #globalproduction
Mail & Guardian
18 hours ago
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
Early 2025-26 production prospects signal an ample global grain and oilseed harvest
The data released by Statistics South Africa showed that agricultural gross value added expanded by 15,8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025. On 12 June, the United States department of agriculture released an update to its monthly For example, the department forecasts 2025-26 global wheat production at a record 808 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. This is based on the expectation of an ample harvest in the European Union, Russia, Canada, Argentina, the United Kingdom and India, among other key producing countries. With that said, consumption is also expected to remain strong, mainly because of the rising demand for food, feed and industrial use in various countries. Thus, the stocks may remain slightly tight, estimated at 262 million tonnes, down 0.5% from the previous season. Still, wheat prices have come under pressure in recent months and could remain at relatively lower levels for some time. Moreover, the department forecasts a 2025-26 global maize harvest of 1.3 billion tonnes, up 3% from the previous season. There are expected ample harvests across most major producing countries, mainly the US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, China, European Union, India and Russia. But industrial use, feed, and food consumption are also set to increase, thus pushing stock levels down by 3% to an estimated 275 million tonnes. This means that although global maize production has increased, the price levels of maize may remain stable or possibly rise slightly due to robust demand. The department forecasts global rice production for 2025-26 at 542 million tonnes, a 0.1% increase from the previous season. There are expected large harvests in various Asian major producing countries that support this decent harvest, primarily India, Vietnam, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Importantly, with consumption expected to remain stable, maize stocks increased by 0.3% from the previous season to 188 million tonnes. Also worth noting is that the 2025-26 global soybean production is forecast at 426 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. There are expected to be decent supplies in South America, China, India, Ukraine and the US, among others. Although global soybean consumption is expected to remain strong, stocks will still be decent. The 2025-26 global soybean stocks are forecast at 124 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. Importantly, these optimistic production prospects depend on the Southern Hemisphere season, which begins in October. In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting season is under way and looking favourable in most regions. But, for the Southern Hemisphere, it will be a few months before we have some level of comfort regarding the agricultural conditions, and the weather outlook in key producing areas of South America will be a primary focus, among other things. Still, these preliminary estimates indicate a substantial grain and oilseed harvest for the 2025-26 season. Wandile Sihlobo is an agricultural economist.
Forbes
18-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Donald Trump Vs. Joe Biden: Who Was Better On Inflation?
TOPSHOT - (COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 22, 2020 shows US President Donald ... More Trump (L) and Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski and JIM WATSON / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKIJIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images) Inflation is not rising prices. Deflation is not falling prices. The more production expands across a rising number of hands and machines, the lower the price. And vice versa. The Apple iPhone is an effect of production on six different continents around the world. Boeing jets are an effect of millions of different parts around the world. Global cooperation makes both increasingly affordable, not 'monetary policy.' Which is a reminder yet again that relentlessly falling prices are evidence of increasingly sophisticated and tessellated global production, not deflation. By contrast, evisceration of global cooperation during the coronavirus lockdowns logically resulted in higher prices borne of less sophisticated and less tessellated global production that, contra accepted wisdom, had little to do with inflation. Inflation is a shrinkage of the unit of measure, in our case, the dollar. But it's not necessarily a decline in the value of the dollar against foreign currencies anymore than deflation is necessarily a rise. Since the dollar floats (as do other foreign currencies), dollar movements upward can at times disguise inflation while a declining dollar can disguise deflation. It brings us to gold. The reason it has long existed as the definer of money is exactly due to the fact that gold doesn't move, but the currencies in which it's priced do. Gold simply is. It tells the truth. When gold is rising against the dollar, that's a sign of a shrinking dollar. When gold is falling, the dollar is rising. Since presidents get the dollar they want, gold's movements can be used to assess who has been better on dollar/inflation policy, Donald Trump or Joe Biden. About how it will be done for this write-up, markets are a look ahead. In which case, the dollar price of gold will be looked at from the time each was elected, not when they entered the White House. In Trump's case, gold closed at $1,273/ounce the day after his election in 2016. On election day in November of 2020, the price of gold had risen to $1,914. Against the objective constant of gold, the dollar lost 50 percent of its value during Trump's first term. The day after the 2020 presidential election won by Biden, gold closed at 1,904. Biden exited the race for a second term on July 21, 2024. As of Friday, July 19, gold was trading at $2,398. The dollar lost 25 percent against gold during Biden's lone term. Unknown is what markets knew after Biden's exit. Did they start pricing in a Trump victory right away, and did they start pricing in a Trump victory ahead of Biden's exit. There's no way of knowing for sure, but it's notable that gold rose 13 percent against the dollar between the time that Biden left the race, and Trump's election. On November 6, 2023, the day Trump's election was made official, gold closed at, 2,721. As of this writing, it's trading at 3,199/ounce, a 17 percent decline in the dollar measured against gold. There's no partisan statement here. Gold once again is. It just reports, and it signals more substantial dollar weakness under Trump. Meaning Trump was the more inflationary president. No doubt this won't show up in CPI and other government measures of prices, but prices go up and down for all sorts of reasons, most them having nothing to do with inflation or deflation. So, while Biden will enter the first draft of history as the president who caused inflation, more distant history may well tell a different story, including that it was Trump who presided over the biggest dollar devaluations, and it was a Trump who panicked about the coronavirus. And Trump's panic brought on higher prices during Biden's presidency that had nothing to do with inflation.
