Latest news with #growingseason
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
What to make of surprisingly low US crop ratings: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn crop has gotten off to a somewhat disappointing start in what is supposed to be a record producing season. Meanwhile, U.S. spring wheat is experiencing its second-worst start to the growing season in history after this year's plantings dropped to a 55-year low. What might these early figures mean for the growing season overall? How do they compare with past years? And where are the problem spots and near-term prospects for improvement? The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday afternoon rated 68% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent (GE) condition in this season's initial rating, marking the lowest starting health since 2019. That was well below analysts' average estimate of 73% GE, though initial condition reports from the Crop Watch producers, opens new tab over the weekend averaged out to a six-year low, at least. A 68% GE is not all that bad. On average over the last three years, the initial U.S. corn score comes in around 72%. Additionally, the slower start may be explainable. The unanimous feedback from the Crop Watch producers was that it has been too cold, cloudy and rainy, and the plants are not growing quickly. Hail, frosts, wind, rain and even a period of excessive heat recently stressed crops in the western Corn Belt, which was reported by Crop Watchers. This showed up in USDA's data on Tuesday. Averaging initial corn conditions by state over the past three years, North Dakota and Ohio stand out. North Dakota at 48% GE is 24 percentage points below average and Ohio's 41% is 37 points below. Conditions in top producer Iowa are 4 percentage points ahead of normal, Illinois is 7 points behind, South Dakota is down 16 points, Nebraska is down 2 points and Minnesota is 4 points behind. Three factors may help ease any concerns about current U.S. corn crop health. The corn crop is only two-thirds emerged nationally, a lower-than-usual portion to coincide with the first condition scores. This allows for some play in the near-term figures, as newly emerged crops, if in good shape, could boost the overall score next week. Although not necessarily unusual, less than 40% of corn in Ohio and North Dakota was emerged as of Sunday, possibly allowing for future improvement. All Crop Watch producers last weekend expressed the dire need for heat and sun, and that should start arriving over the weekend after this week finishes out on the cooler, cloudy side. The pattern might not necessarily be long-lasting, but even a short, warm, sunny spell in early June can go a long way for early crop growth. U.S. corn was initially rated 65% GE in 2017, and calculations at the time pointed to near or below-trend yield probabilities. This caused the market to misjudge the crop potential all year, and the 2017 corn crop achieved a new record yield. The 2017 crop was rated 60% GE by the end of July, not too huge of a change from the initial. So even though 60% would not be considered stellar by itself, the lack of large rating swings that season may have been telling. U.S. spring wheat was rated 45% GE as of Sunday, tied with 2021 as the second-lowest initial rating over the 40-year history. The worst was 34% in 1988. Those two years are bad company, as they featured well-below-trend U.S. spring wheat yields as both seasons included drought. The 2025 crop is already starting in the hole as U.S. farmers intend to plant their smallest spring wheat area since 1970. Some 60% of U.S. spring wheat was emerged by Sunday, comparable to 66% on the same date in 2021. North Dakota, which produces half of the U.S. spring wheat crop, must remain on watch as only 37% of the wheat there is GE and 26% is considered poor or very poor. Recent cold and wet weather has battered the young wheat crop, so the coming flip to better weather may offer improvement opportunities. Market analysts had expected the initial spring wheat conditions to come in at 71% GE, so the result was much more shocking than the one for corn. But the lighter figures for both certainly set up the potential for market scares this summer if an unfavorable weather pattern were to set in. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
CBC
19-05-2025
- Climate
- CBC
Farmers and meteorologists say record rainfall in southeast Sask. could help growing season
Farmers and weather observers in southeast Saskatchewan say last week's record-breaking rain could be a boon for this year's growing season. On May 15 and 16 a storm brought significant rainfall to the southeastern corner of the province, with some communities receiving over 100 millimetres of rain in 48 hours. "What we saw was a developing low pressure system that crossed through Montana and stalled out essentially right over the central portions of North Dakota," said Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Eric Dykes. "It moved all the moisture up from the southeast up through the United States's midwestern states, pushed it up into Manitoba, and retrograded back towards southeastern portions of Saskatchewan where it basically just kind of sat there over several days." According to the government of Canada weather service, Estevan received over 70 millimetres of rain, while Maryfield and Esterhazy, two communities close to the southeastern border with Manitoba, saw 59 millimetres and 47 millimetres. The service also reported that volunteer weather observers had reported close to 100 millimetres of rain in Kenosee Lake, and 108 millimetres in Radville, a community 100 kilometres northwest of Estevan. Moisture will help famers Trevor Hadwen, an agro-climate specialist from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, said that the added moisture from the rain will benefit farmers, especially those who have already seeded their crops. "We've seen drops in our soil moisture right across the province, leading to a little bit more concern than we did at the end of last month," he said on May 14. "But certainly still in the area of much more positive outlook than we've seen in the last number of years for the province." As of April 30, while not in official drought conditions, several areas along the southern edge of the province were classified as abnormally dry. The following two weeks saw very little rain, adding to the lack of moisture but also allowing some farmers to seed their crops before the rain began. "Areas that have been seeded already will benefit greatly from the precipitation that we've seen," said Hadwen. "Precipitation also slows down that seeding a little bit. So producers that still haven't got it out in the fields and had limited seeding done, mostly in the south or on the northeastern corner of the province, they're the furthest behind." "Areas down that southwest corner that are most advanced and seeding really want this moisture right now." Jason Leblanc, who grows mainly grains and oil seeds outside of Estevan and who got his seeding done early, said the rain couldn't have come at a better time. He said his farm received around 90 millimetres over the course of Thursday and Friday. "It was a perfect rain," he said. "We don't want any more of it. We of course want that again in about three weeks, but we can handle that kind of rain." " For the last four years we've been seeding a little bit earlier with the El Niño effect. And then this year, the prediction was we would seed a bit earlier and get some moisture. And that's exactly what happened." Saskatchewan's main growing season begins in late May and runs around 100 days until mid-September. "The last two years have been pretty dry for us. Even if we got the moisture, we were getting such long spells of sun or heat, it was just too hot. It would burn the flowers off," he said.
