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Globe and Mail
16 minutes ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Like the Fed, European Central Bank holds off on rate cuts amid tariff upheaval
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday, hitting pause on rate cuts amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught and high-stakes trade talks marked by threats of drastically higher import taxes on European goods. Bank President Christine Lagarde said the current economic environment and the potential impact of higher tariffs was 'exceptionally uncertain." Higher tariffs could slow investment, growth and inflation - or they could be inflationary by disrupting existing supply chains for parts and raw materials. 'The sooner this trade uncertainty is resolved ... the less uncertainty we will have to deal with," she said. 'And that would be welcome by any economic actors, including trade tensions are resolved in short order, it will clear some of the uncertainty that we have weighing on the decision-making of consumers, of investors, of, untold enterprises." 'You could argue that we are on hold, we are in this wait and watch situation.' The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro is facing the same dilemma that has led the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting rates further: it's hard to tell how high the tariffs will end up after fraught negotiations, and what the ultimate impact will be on the economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been harshly criticized by the Trump for delaying rate cuts. For his part, Powell has said the Fed wants to see the impact of the duties on prices and the economy before making any rate changes. The ECB has already cut rates eight times since June of last year. The monetary authority for the 20 countries that use the euro currency has been lowering rates to support growth after raising them in 2022-2023 to snuff out inflation caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the rebound after the pandemic. With the bench mark rate now at 2%, down from a record high of 4% Analysts say a rate cut in September is a possibility but not a certainty. The reason: ECB's policymakers simply don't know the outcome of talks between the EU's executive commission and the Trump administration. Trump first set a 20% tariff for EU goods, then threatened 50% after expressing displeasure at the pace of talks, then sent the EU a letter informing officials of a potential 30% tariff. EU officials earlier held out hope of winning at least the 10% baseline that applies to almost all trade partners, and analysts think that the actual rate may be lower than Trump's tariff threats. The talks are up against an Aug. 1 deadline, but earlier deadlines have slipped as the sides kept talking. Higher tariffs, or import taxes, on European goods would mean sellers would have to either increase prices for U.S. consumers - risking loss of market share - or swallow the added cost in terms of lower profits. In either case, higher tariffs would hurt export earnings for European firms and slow the economy, which would strengthen the case for another rate cut in September. The ECB's rate cuts have helped support economic activity by lowering the cost of credit for consumers and businesses to purchase goods. Higher rates have the opposite effect and are used to cool of inflation by reducing demand for goods. Growth in the eurozone was relatively strong at 0.6% in the first quarter - though that was partly due to rushed shipments of goods trying to beat the tariffs. Inflation has fallen from double digits in late 2022 to 2% in June, in line with the ECB's target. A stronger euro, which lowers the price of imports, and softer global prices for oil have helped keep inflation moderate.
Bloomberg
16 minutes ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
ECB Officials Say Those Seeking Another Rate Cut Face a Battle
European Central Bank policymakers pushing for another reduction in interest rates face an uphill battle, according to people familiar with the matter. A hold looks like the baseline for September after eight cuts since June 2024, the people said, asking not to be identified revealing private discussions. Some suggested that the onus is on those seeking further easing to justify their stance, rather than those opposed to more action having to make their case.
Wall Street Journal
16 minutes ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Podcast: Trump to Tour Fed as Powell Feud Continues
President Trump is set to tour the construction site where the Federal Reserve is renovating its headquarters this afternoon. The White House's scrutiny of the $2.5 billion building works coincides with Trump's broader frustration over interest rates. Plus: Hyundai, South Korea's largest car maker, reports a 22% drop in profit amid higher U.S. tariffs. 🎧 Listen to the latest Minute Briefing podcast, or read more below:
CNA
41 minutes ago
- Business
- CNA
Dollar holds steady after ECB leaves rates alone, tariffs and Fed in focus
The dollar traded sideways against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was wedged between prospects for higher Japanese rates that supported the yen and worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The European Central Bank left interest rates steady at 2 per cent, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15 per cent tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. A number of U.S. employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was 0.17 per cent firmer at $1.1786, not far from $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.07 per cent weaker at 146.39, and hit a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, was off 0.03 per cent at 97.17.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Business
- Reuters
Dollar holds steady after ECB leaves rates alone, tariffs and Fed in focus
July 24 (Reuters) - The dollar traded sideways against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was wedged between prospects for higher Japanese rates that supported the yen and worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The European Central Bank left interest rates steady at 2%, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15% tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. A number of U.S. employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was 0.17% firmer at $1.1786, not far from $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen , the dollar was 0.07% weaker at 146.39, and hit a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, was off 0.03% at 97.17. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.33% to $118,391.37. Ethereum rose 2.14% to $3,647.18.
