5 days ago
Two sworn enemies unite against Putin
The collapse of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan came in a series of quick-fire blows.
It began with the arrest of seven nationals from the former Soviet republic last month in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.
They were held as part of an investigation by Moscow into mafia-style killings dating back 25 years.
Within days, two suspects – both ethnic Azerbaijanis – died in custody. Others appeared in court visibly bruised and beaten.
Azerbaijan responded with fury. Russian cultural events were cancelled, the Baku bureau of the Kremlin-owned Sputnik news agency was raided, and a group of Russian IT workers was arrested and accused of drug-trafficking and cybercrime.
Then came the threat, on Russian state TV, that Baku could be 'taken in three days', echoing rhetoric used before the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
War is unlikely. But the rift is real – and dangerous for Moscow because Armenia, after fighting a series of brutal wars with Azerbaijan over 30 years, is aligning with its old enemy to push Putin out of the South Caucasus.
On July 10, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's president, met Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia.
Their direct talks focused on the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed route linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia.
The corridor would fulfil a pan-Turkic dream of physically connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey and would form part of the 'Middle Corridor' trade route from China and Central Asia to Europe.
Under the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the route was to be monitored by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).
But that arrangement is now under threat, with Mr Aliyev wanting to cut Moscow out of the deal and have it fully under Azerbaijani control.
'This is Russia's last big card in the region,' said Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
'It allows them to control trade routes and leverage relationships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Losing it would be a major blow.'
Although the talks on July 10 were inconclusive, momentum is shifting.
Mr Pashinyan visited Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, in Istanbul last month, a significant meeting given Armenia and Turkey have no formal diplomatic ties.
Afterwards, Mr Erdoğan said Armenia was showing a 'more flexible approach' to the Zangezur Corridor, despite having previously opposed it.
The West, meanwhile, has floated the idea of putting the route under neutral international control, such as a Swiss or American firm, effectively excluding Russia altogether.
Like Azerbaijan's, Armenia's ties with Moscow have frayed – especially since 2023, when Russian peacekeepers largely stood aside during Baku's lightning offensive to retake the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Nearly the entire Armenian population fled, and Azerbaijan was accused of ethnic cleansing.
Since then Mr Pashinyan has leaned towards the West and sought reconciliation with Baku, believing that Armenia's long-term future is threatened if it maintains hostile relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
This is far from popular in Armenia. Mr Pashinyan has one of the lowest approval ratings of any leader in the world and a recent spat with the Armenian Apostolic Church saw two archbishops arrested on charges of plotting against the government.
However, Nurlan Aliyev, a senior researcher at the College of Europe, said Mr Pashinyan's geopolitical reshuffling has pushed Baku and Yerevan together regarding their position on Russia.
Mr Aliyev said: 'Both countries understand that they need to create a South Caucasus security architecture without Russian participation, one that regional states will support themselves.
'We have not yet seen a final peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but there are positive signs. A final peace agreement would be a major blow to Russia's position in the South Caucasus.'
For the president of Azerbaijan, the days of taking orders from Moscow appear to be over. Analysts say he is using the Yekaterinburg incident to not just demand justice, but to assert independence.
'The problem in relations with Baku is serious,' a former high-ranking Russian diplomat told The Telegraph. 'President Aliyev bared his teeth, as any authoritarian leader would. He now sees himself as a triumphant figure. Moscow no longer dictates terms.'
Bashir Kitachayev of the Carnegie Centre in Berlin said Baku is taking advantage of the incident to push back against Moscow.
'The deaths of two Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg served merely as a convenient pretext,' he said. 'They [the Azerbaijani authorities] are using the situation to bolster their position at home and abroad by escalating tensions with Moscow.'
The shift was underlined by a publicised call between Mr Aliyev and Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, in which they discussed forming closer ties.
It was a pointed signal from Azerbaijan, a country long seen as aligned with Moscow.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, is trying to reframe the standoff as a Western plot.
'The scriptwriter and conductor of disagreements with Azerbaijan is located outside the post-Soviet space,' said Grigory Karasin, chairman of Russia's international affairs committee.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, a Russian senator and former KGB officer, went further by accusing MI6 and Turkey of stirring unrest.
In truth, the cracks began long before Yekaterinburg.
Last Christmas, Russia mistakenly shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines jet. Baku refused to move past the incident, ultimately forcing Putin to apologise and offer compensation, in a rare diplomatic climbdown.
Now fully aware of the power of public confrontation, Baku did not hesitate to retaliate in the wake of the arrests in Yekaterinburg.
The fallout also threatens Russia's prized North-South Corridor – a trade route linking Moscow to Iran and India that runs through Azerbaijan.
Losing access to the corridor could deliver a real economic blow, especially as Russia seeks ways to get around Western sanctions.
Arkady Dubnov, a post-Soviet affairs expert, wrote on Telegram that Moscow's main concern was preserving that corridor. It knows, he said, that alienating Baku completely could threaten those plans.
For now, Russia will continue blaming the West while working behind the scenes to try to salvage its relationships.
But for Azerbaijan and Armenia – nations once treated like Soviet satellites – they are setting their own course and increasingly, it does not involve Russia.
Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
