Latest news with #pollsters
Forbes
a day ago
- Politics
- Forbes
Media Confidence and the Pollsters
Confidence in the media is abysmally low, a finding confirmed regularly by many pollsters asking many different questions. This is hardly news, but it has significant implications not only for the media itself but also for the media's polling partners. Gallup's recent updates to their substantial trends on the media reveal the depths of the problem. Gallup has been measuring confidence in newspapers since 1973, when 39% expressed a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. In their poll this July, that response was 17%. Gallup added television news in 1993, when 46% had a high confidence. Now, this figure has dropped to 11%. There are partisan differences, but confidence in the media is low across the board: in 2025, 12% of Republicans expressed high confidence in newspapers while 24% of Democrats did. As for television, 11% of Republicans and 19% of Democrats expressed strong confidence. Hardly votes of confidence. Gallup looked at the honesty and ethical standards of different professions in late 2024, and majorities gave the low or very low response to three of the 23 the surveyors examined. These were TV reporters (55% said they had low or very low standards), members of Congress (68%), and lobbyists (68%). Newspaper reporters fared only slightly better. Forty-five percent said their standards were low or very low. Response to a broader Gallup question on trust and confidence in the mass media 'such as newspapers, TV, and radio – when it comes to reporting the news fully, accurately, and fairly' has fallen significantly since they asked this question in 1997. In their 2024 reading, 31% overall had a great deal or a fair amount of trust and confidence, but more, 36%, had no trust at all. Gallup notes that this is the third year in a row in which more people had no trust than had a great deal or fair amount of it. Gallup has been asking this question regularly since 1997, and the no confidence response has risen sharply. A Pew 2025 survey that provides trend data back to 2016 shows more stability in 'information' provided by the national news media, but only 17% had a lot of confidence in it in 2025, and 50% some. For social media sites, those figures were 7% a lot and 35% some. Analyses of the decline in trust in the media today are numerous. A Pew Charitable Trust analysis focused on polarization and economic disruption in the industry. There are also concerns about bias, a new cohort of progressive journalists who are part of an out-of-touch media elite, relentlessly negative coverage, and incessant scandal and celebrity stories. I'll leave the diagnosis to the experts, but I do often wonder what happened to the old journalism maxim of telling readers the who, what, where of news events. The pollsters feed the journalistic maw with breathless findings on Trump's up and downs, on scandal, etc. Don't get me wrong. I want to know how Donald Trump and the political parties are faring, and I'm even mildly interested in polling about the 2026 elections, even though they are over a year away and a lot can change. Polling will always be a valuable way to take the public's temperature, but something seems to be missing as modern pollsters have tied themselves so closely to the old and new media. To this long-time observer, it feels as if the pollsters once had more involvement in setting the agenda for each poll than they do today. Despite the explosion of polling, there seems to be less interest in trends or how Americans live their lives. Political coverage, and especially celebrity and scandal stories, are central to the news media and the pollsters now, as if these were the main or only topics that interest Americans. Pollsters have had media partners for decades. They help them get their findings out and burnish their reputations. George Gallup relied on newspapers to publicize his polls. Elmo Roper polled for Fortune magazine, starting in the mid-1930s. Media-polling partnerships flowered starting in the mid-1970s with the CBS News/New York Times poll which began in late1975. ABC and the Washington Post started partnering in 1981 and NBC and the Wall Street Journal followed suit in 1985. Today pollsters change partners often as they navigate the new media environment. There is no indication of an impending divorce or even a trial separation between the pollsters and the media, but the pollsters have tied themselves to a widely unpopular institution and that's a problem.
Forbes
23-06-2025
- Politics
- Forbes
When It Comes To Schools, The Public Wants Innovation, Not Cuts
A new survey of 1,500 registered voters has found broad support for the U.S. Department of ... More Education, innovation, education research and development, and for funding to make that happen. The Trump plan for national education policy has been simple: Dismantle it. But now that Trump and DOGE are actively undertaking that effort, voters – even Republicans – are looking at the destruction and saying, 'No thanks.' A new survey of 1,500 registered voters conducted by a team of bipartisan pollsters has found broad support for the U.S. Department of Education, despite Trump's determination to destroy that agency. According to the poll, 62% oppose the elimination of the U.S. Department of Education, while 72% want federal education spending to increase. In an era where national elections hinge on razor-thin margins, these numbers show significant agreement across party lines that Trump's approach to K-12 education is deeply unpopular. Voters Want Investment And Innovation What is popular with voters? Federal support for innovation, for education research and development, and for the funding to make that happen. According to the survey, a whopping 72% of voters want the federal government to increase its spending on K-12 schools. Even among Republicans, 54% said they wanted the government to spend more. Trump and his DOGE budget cutters eliminated funding for scores of major research and development initiatives, including those focused on identifying what works in education, even though those programs enjoy broad public support. In fact, nearly 80% of voters surveyed said the federal government should prioritize efforts to discover and share effective teaching and learning strategies. It seems that voters of both political stripes understand that the nation must invest in data collection and research if it is to drive better outcomes for all students. The voters we polled want the federal government involved in those efforts. Recent events may offer a bit of a reprieve, or perhaps even a reversal. A recent court filing revealed that at least 10 of the DOGE-cancelled contracts that ended the Regional Education Laboratories would be reinstated. This is great news for the RELs, as they are called, which exist to help state education leaders conduct careful research and develop solutions to their biggest problems, like low literacy rates. This just makes sense. Unlike individual school districts or states, only the federal government has the capacity and funding to carry out large-scale research on effective teaching and learning, research that can reveal what works, what doesn't, for which students, and under what circumstances. Voters get that. Voters want that. Even among Republicans, this is a popular idea: 74% of those who self-identified as 'very conservative' agreed that funding research to identify effective teaching strategies should be a federal priority. Every day, teachers are asked to meet the needs of students with vastly different abilities, languages, and life experiences. Too often, they're left to figure it out on their own. What they need are playbooks grounded in real research. In particular, the nation needs far more innovation and development around AI. The advent of large models have a tremendous potential to dramatically improve education, making education more personalized, targeted, and effective. Stop Thinking Of Innovation As A Line Item But innovation and new ideas don't spring from nothing. The key is to stop looking at education R&D as a line-item and start thinking about it as an investment that will produce better schools, better teaching, and – ultimately – the higher student achievement that the country and the economy need to remain on top. There's talk of a 'reimagined' federal research and development role, of new infrastructure and partnerships that will replace the agencies, contracts, and contractors that have traditionally done this work. If that happens, I'll be the first to stand and applaud. But the administration has said very little about when or even if this is happening. If it is, it could take years to complete. Students don't have the luxury of time. In the meantime, President Trump and Congress should listen to what voters are saying and not retreat from the federal role in education. They should restore funding to the Department of Education and the agencies that support research and innovation. Because abandoning the federal role in education won't just shrink government, it will shrink opportunity.
Japan Times
11-06-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
Japan faces staffing challenges for crucial census
The government is facing mounting difficulties in recruiting pollsters for its national census, conducted every five years to survey all households. Several factors are contributing to the personnel shortage: The pollster workforce is aging, while increased public concerns over privacy have led more residents to refuse to participate. The proliferation of condominium buildings with self-locking entrance doors has also made it physically harder for census workers to reach residents. To address ongoing challenges and ensure the sustainability of the census, the internal affairs ministry is encouraging online participation as a more accessible and efficient alternative. Launched in 1920, Japan's census is designed to accurately assess the state of households and residents nationwide, providing essential data for policymaking. The ministry describes it as "the most important statistical survey in Japan." Traditionally, census questionnaire sheets have been distributed in person. As of Oct. 1 every five years, the national census gathers key information on all residents, including foreign nationals. Data collected include each individual's name, gender and place of employment. The census results serve a number of important purposes, such as redrawing single-seat constituencies for the House of Representatives, the more powerful lower chamber of parliament, and determining how tax revenues are allocated to local governments. Private-sector companies also rely on census data to inform business decisions, such as selecting locations for new convenience stores. Preliminary results from this year's census are expected to be released in May 2026. In the 2015 census, the government was able to recruit 94.8% of the required number of pollsters. In the 2020 census, the fulfillment rate dropped to 87.6%, a decline attributed, in part, to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pollster workforce is also aging, with those 70 or older making up a little more than 30% of all census personnel in the last survey. A survey conducted by Shimane Prefecture in May 2024, the first of its kind in Japan, revealed that 14 out of the prefecture's 19 municipalities reported being "unable to secure" a sufficient number of pollsters. Recruiting pollsters has become increasingly challenging for several reasons. Survey personnel often experience significant psychological stress, largely due to the challenges surrounding securing face-to-face interactions with residents. This is frequently the result of residents not being at home, either genuinely or pretending. There has also been a rise in the number of residents refusing to answer questionnaires, partly because they are unsure whether the survey staff are who they claim to be. The situation is serious in large urban areas as well. In condominiums with self-locking entrance doors, direct face-to-face contact with residents is difficult, often forcing field workers to make repeated visits. "In order to enter condominium buildings, pollsters must first explain (the purpose of their visits) to the building superintendents," an official from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government said. "But gaining their understanding can take considerable time due to increased concerns about privacy." Moreover, "many households are dual-income families, with both adults away during the day, which further complicates efforts" to reach residents, the official added. To help reduce the burden on pollsters, the internal affairs ministry has expanded the use of online questionnaires. For the 2025 census, residents will be able to easily access the survey website by scanning a QR code with their smartphones or other devices. Online participants made up only 37.9% of all respondents in the 2020 census, even at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The ministry has set a goal of 50% for this year's census responses to be submitted online. A ministry official highlighted the advantages of online participation. "Receiving responses online can save us a great deal of trouble, such as checking for erroneous entries," the official said. "This not only improves the accuracy of survey results, but also reduces the overall burden on the census administration system, including census workers, local governments and respondents." The ministry also plans to conduct a trial distribution of questionnaire sheets by mail to residents of condominium buildings with self-locking entrance doors in some municipalities across the Kanto region, including Tokyo. While this approach will alleviate the burden on pollsters, it will require municipalities to take on the additional task of mailing the questionnaires. Therefore, the ministry intends to review the results of the trial and consider possible improvements for the 2030 census, officials said.
Times
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Times
Original Sin review — how the Democrats tried to hide Biden's decline
By the start of the presidential campaign of 2024 most Americans, who care very little about politics but understand what it means to be human and get older, had decided that Joe Biden was in no fit state to run again. We know this because they told pollsters, repeatedly. An ABC survey in February of that year revealed that a staggering 86 per cent of voters — including 73 per cent of Democrats — wanted him out of the race. Americans agree about little. They agreed about this. Original Sin tells us that the voters were right. And how they became victims of one of the great political cover-ups of modern times: an organised effort to tell people that the evidence of their own eyes
Times
19-05-2025
- Politics
- Times
Gaslighting America — how the Democrats tried, and failed, to cover up Biden's ailing health
By the start of the presidential campaign of 2024 most Americans, who care very little about politics but understand what it means to be human and get older, had decided that Joe Biden was in no fit state to run again. We know this because they told pollsters, repeatedly. An ABC survey in February of that year revealed that a staggering 86 per cent of voters — including 73 per cent of Democrats — wanted him out of the race. Americans agree about little. They agreed about this. Original Sin tells us that the voters were right. And how they became victims of one of the great political cover-ups of modern times: an organised effort to tell people that the evidence of their own eyes
