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Economic Times
25-05-2025
- Science
- Economic Times
Jayant Vishnu Narlikar: The great astrophysicist believed it's essential to have voices who question mainstream dogma
In June 1995, Cambridge University's Institute of Astronomy (IoA) celebrated the 80th birthday of its founder, the renowned physicist Fred Hoyle. Members of the original team who helped establish one of the world's leading scientific institutions in 1972 were invited. Among them was Jayant Vishnu Narlikar, one of the founding faculty of IoA, and one of Hoyle's old research students. Narlikar was then founding director of Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) in Pune, a place modelled closed after IoA. At the summer garden party on one of those rare English sunny afternoons, Hoyle, the most important figure in Britain's post-WW2 astronomy and space sciences establishment, was asked to speak about his life in science. In a letter to Robert Hooke in 1675, another Cambridge scientist, Isaac Newton, had famously said, 'If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.' Hoyle started his speech about his main contributions to astronomy by saying, 'If I have seen further than others, it is by standing on the shoulders of a Jayant.' In the 1960s, Narlikar, with his mentor Hoyle, developed a work that's arguably the finest among their scientific oeuvres. Hoyle-Narlikar theory of gravity presented an alternative to Einstein's general relativity by fundamentally incorporating Mach's Principle. Think of it this way: what if the weight and mass (inertia) of an object isn't just something it has by itself, but is actually influenced by everything else in the universe? Unlike Einstein's theory of relativity, which sees gravity as a warping of space and time, Hoyle and Narlikar proposed that gravity is a direct interaction between all particles in the universe, near and far. Their theory also included a unique concept called the 'creation field', which meant new matter constantly appearing to keep the universe expanding without becoming empty. This was consistent with their model of the universe-steady state theory-which believes the universe to be infinite in age and expanse. While we now have strong evidence for the Big Bang model-which believes the universe began from a point almost 14 bn years ago-this theory was a bold and thought-provoking alternative that pushed scientists to think differently about how our universe works. Celebrity came early to Jayant Narlikar. He was a decorated student, a senior wrangler in Cambridge mathematics with lots of prizes under his belt. With his work on cosmology with Hoyle being discussed in the halls of science across the world, the Indian government laid out a red carpet for him to return to India and set up a strong group in physics and astronomy research at Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), from which would hopefully spawn many others. In 1988, UGC created for him his own institution, IUCAA, in Pune, to help build astronomy and cosmology teaching and research in all the universities across India. At 27, he had been awarded the Padma Bhushan, which later became a Padma Vibhashan as he stepped off his 3-term stint as director of IUCAA. Narlikar's approach to the nature of gravity, even at an early stage of his career, showed that at heart, he was a maverick. As most cosmologists grew comfortable accepting the Big Bang model, Narlikar held his ground that the steady state had to be the answer. As more evidence was unearthed in favour of Big Bang, he responded with alternative explanations. With Geoff Burbidge and others, he proposed the quasi-steady state model, a universe that contracts and expands, cycling endlessly, with no beginning. The cosmic microwave background, which is the strongest evidence in support of the Big Bang, was elegantly explained with a kind of interstellar dust. Models of dust led to more problems. But Narlikar was undeterred. He refused to stop thinking, or reimagining. He was not a contrarian, but somebody who believed that it's essential to have voices who question mainstream IUCAA director, I cherished Narlikar's daily presence at the institute in his office next to the library, where I would regularly go for discussions and advice. In the entire time I worked with him, I found his allegiance to his theories never to be dogmatic. In front of students and other academics, he would be open to all-out debate about anything he did or did not believe in. He would argue with impeccable rigour, ever fact that I often contradicted him in academic debates was never held personally against me, or anybody else. Narlikar was a professional academic in every sense of the term.I got interested in astronomy as a child from his books, and Carl Sagan, whose TV series, 'Cosmos,' he brought to Doordarshan audiences. Later on, as I worked alongside him to bring science to the public, especially to young people, I saw the true Jayant Narlikar-the maverick who was not afraid to question the core dogmas of science, as well as all-pervasive pseudo-science in society, embodied in astrology and general was truly a giant, not just of astrophysics or academia, but of rational thought and expression, and spent a lifetime very effectively communicating this to the rest of the world. There won't be another of his kind. Adieu.
Business Wire
06-05-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Barclays Research Expects AI to Recast Global Supply Chains and Labor Markets
LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In this year's edition of the Equity Gilt Study, Barclays Research analysts delve into the transformational power of AI, offering a long-term view on how AI-driven disruption and other structural forces are likely to shape the global economy in the years ahead. Beyond the technological shifts, analysts find that AI will accelerate major changes across supply chains, labor markets and the future of work. 'AI is already changing many aspects of the modern economy and financial markets and will continue to do so for years to come,' says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research. "The end result promises to be fascinating – and most likely a net positive for the world at large.' The Geopolitics of Minerals and Minds Barclays Research highlights the strategic vulnerabilities created by the global reliance on a handful of countries for critical rare earth elements and skilled talent. Barclays analysts warn that this concentration threatens supply chain stability amid rising geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and climate-related shocks. AI and the New Skills Divide Drawing on eight years of data, Barclays analysts find that while AI's overall effect on employment remains modest, it is already reshaping expectations of skills and tasks, especially in higher-paid, white-collar roles. As adoption accelerates, the potential for broader macroeconomic effects continues to grow. AI's Market Divide Barclays analysts argue that the spread of AI could have far-reaching implications for investment returns, drawing parallels to past technological revolutions such as the post-WW2 revolution in durable goods, the rise of the internet in the 1990s and the data boom of the 2010s. AI could drive gains in equities, upward pressure on yields across the curve and a moderately stronger dollar. Deep Impact The sudden emergence of DeepSeek from China was a 'Sputnik moment' for the US and other developed markets, galvanizing a new wave of investment in AI infrastructure. Barclays analysts believe that the capital expenditure arms race has further to run, not least due to the vast computing power needed for emerging, multi-step workloads. Notes to editors: Barclays Equity Gilt Study is a flagship annual publication that combines market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset dataset spanning over 100 years. It provides uniquely rich data and commentary on long-term asset returns in the UK and US. Data for the UK goes back to 1899, while the US data, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago, runs from 1925. About Barclays Investment Bank Our vision is to be the UK-centred leader in global finance. We are a diversified bank with comprehensive UK consumer, corporate and wealth and private banking franchises, a leading global investment bank and a strong, specialist US consumer bank. Through these five divisions, we are working together for a better financial future for our customers, clients and communities. The Investment Bank helps money managers, financial institutions, governments, supranational organisations and corporate clients manage their funding, investing, financing, and strategic and risk management needs.
Economic Times
04-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India needs more guard rails to address concerns of equity in the wake of Trump's trade war
Just a day after Donald Trump patted himself on the back for completing what he called, in his usual humble style, 'the most successful first 100 days of any administration', the US economy gave him a rude wake-up call. US GDP, a measure of the money-value of goods and services produced in the economy, contracted for the first time in three years during Q1 (Jan-Mar 2025). Against expectations of a growth of 0.3%, the world's largest economy contracted 0.3%, a sharp fall from the 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 part of the contraction can be explained by American companies importing more in a bid to beat tariff deadlines. Imports reportedly grew 41%, the fastest since 2020, chipping away five percentage points from Q1 growth. Optimists hope the dramatic increase in imports will reverse in Q2, once the uncertainty over tariffs ends, although that is yet to be regardless of whether trade deals are struck, or the 90-day pause on tariffs that comes to an end early July is extended, US imports will face higher tariffs than before. Thanks to a flat import duty of 10%, higher tariffs on China and a complex web of sector-specific tariffs, US consumers will face higher prices that will, in turn, hit domestic demand and as with all things macroeconomic, there is no consensus on whether Q1's GDP contraction is only a one-off, or whether the next quarter will also see a contraction, tipping the US into a recession (two consecutive quarters of fall in GDP). So, if NYU Stern Business School 's 'Dr Doom' Nouriel Roubini expects to see the US economy 'thrive' after an initial period of pain, Yale's Stephen Roach sees the US heading for a 'long period of stagflation' (lower growth and higher inflation).What is undeniable is that regardless of whether the US economy goes into a recession or not, Trump's trade wars, and even more his policy flip-flops and accompanying uncertainty, will impact global growth adversely. Last fortnight, IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) downgraded its forecast for world economic growth. Growth is now expected at 2.8%, down from 3.3% earlier (January WEO), while US economic growth is expected to be impacted even more adversely. US GDP is now expected to expand by only 1.8 % this year, down from the January estimate of 2.7%.Unfortunately, for now, Trump seems unfazed. Arguing that US Q1 GDP numbers had nothing to do with his tariff policies, and brushing them off as part of 'transition pain' from the overhang of Biden's policies, Trump has promised more of the same. Despite turmoil in world financial markets in April that forced him to backtrack on his egregious tariff proposals, at the celebrations marking his first 100 days in the White House, he remained upbeat. 'We've just gotten started. You haven't even seen anything yet.'Presumably, Trump is hell-bent on continuing down his chosen path of knocking down the building blocks on which the post-WW2 world economy has been founded. And that spells trouble for the world at more important question for us in India is whether we can hope to grow at 6%-plus, as projected by RBI, finmin and IMF. Can we really expect to escape unscathed when the US - the main driver of post-WW2 growth - slows, or worse, enters a recession?Sure, we are largely a domestic-driven economy, and our exposure to the US, especially in terms of goods exports, is not significant. Sure, we are reportedly in the final stages of signing a trade deal with the US that will limit the damage from higher tariffs on our US-bound exports. But the collateral damage from trade wars, and dismantling of the world economic order as we know it today, cannot be contained by bilateral deals, with the US or any other what are the other options beyond trade deals before our policy authorities? What, if anything, can monetary and fiscal policy do in the face of such an unprecedented extraneous shock? Not much, really. RBI has cut interest rates twice in succession - in February and April 2025 - and modified its monetary policy stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative', infusing almost as much liquidity as during the pandemic, and over a shorter period. In contrast, GoI has been combination of loose monetary policy and relatively restrained fiscal policy worked during Covid, even though we paid a price in the form of a K-shaped recovery and high inflation subsequently. Whether the same policy combination will do the trick this time round remains to be seen. What is certain is that we will need more guard rails to address legitimate and pressing concerns of equity in the aftermath of Trump's trade war.
Time of India
04-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
We'll need more guard rails to address concerns of equity in the wake of Trump's trade war
Live Events Just a day after Donald Trump patted himself on the back for completing what he called, in his usual humble style, 'the most successful first 100 days of any administration', the US economy gave him a rude wake-up call. US GDP, a measure of the money-value of goods and services produced in the economy, contracted for the first time in three years during Q1 (Jan-Mar 2025). Against expectations of a growth of 0.3%, the world's largest economy contracted 0.3%, a sharp fall from the 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 part of the contraction can be explained by American companies importing more in a bid to beat tariff deadlines. Imports reportedly grew 41%, the fastest since 2020, chipping away five percentage points from Q1 growth. Optimists hope the dramatic increase in imports will reverse in Q2, once the uncertainty over tariffs ends, although that is yet to be regardless of whether trade deals are struck, or the 90-day pause on tariffs that comes to an end early July is extended, US imports will face higher tariffs than before. Thanks to a flat import duty of 10%, higher tariffs on China and a complex web of sector-specific tariffs, US consumers will face higher prices that will, in turn, hit domestic demand and as with all things macroeconomic, there is no consensus on whether Q1's GDP contraction is only a one-off, or whether the next quarter will also see a contraction, tipping the US into a recession (two consecutive quarters of fall in GDP). So, if NYU Stern Business School 's 'Dr Doom' Nouriel Roubini expects to see the US economy 'thrive' after an initial period of pain, Yale's Stephen Roach sees the US heading for a 'long period of stagflation' (lower growth and higher inflation).What is undeniable is that regardless of whether the US economy goes into a recession or not, Trump's trade wars, and even more his policy flip-flops and accompanying uncertainty, will impact global growth adversely. Last fortnight, IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) downgraded its forecast for world economic growth. Growth is now expected at 2.8%, down from 3.3% earlier (January WEO), while US economic growth is expected to be impacted even more adversely. US GDP is now expected to expand by only 1.8 % this year, down from the January estimate of 2.7%.Unfortunately, for now, Trump seems unfazed. Arguing that US Q1 GDP numbers had nothing to do with his tariff policies, and brushing them off as part of 'transition pain' from the overhang of Biden's policies, Trump has promised more of the same. Despite turmoil in world financial markets in April that forced him to backtrack on his egregious tariff proposals, at the celebrations marking his first 100 days in the White House, he remained upbeat. 'We've just gotten started. You haven't even seen anything yet.'Presumably, Trump is hell-bent on continuing down his chosen path of knocking down the building blocks on which the post-WW2 world economy has been founded. And that spells trouble for the world at more important question for us in India is whether we can hope to grow at 6%-plus, as projected by RBI, finmin and IMF. Can we really expect to escape unscathed when the US - the main driver of post-WW2 growth - slows, or worse, enters a recession?Sure, we are largely a domestic-driven economy, and our exposure to the US, especially in terms of goods exports, is not significant. Sure, we are reportedly in the final stages of signing a trade deal with the US that will limit the damage from higher tariffs on our US-bound exports. But the collateral damage from trade wars, and dismantling of the world economic order as we know it today, cannot be contained by bilateral deals, with the US or any other what are the other options beyond trade deals before our policy authorities? What, if anything, can monetary and fiscal policy do in the face of such an unprecedented extraneous shock? Not much, really. RBI has cut interest rates twice in succession - in February and April 2025 - and modified its monetary policy stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative', infusing almost as much liquidity as during the pandemic, and over a shorter period. In contrast, GoI has been combination of loose monetary policy and relatively restrained fiscal policy worked during Covid, even though we paid a price in the form of a K-shaped recovery and high inflation subsequently. Whether the same policy combination will do the trick this time round remains to be seen. What is certain is that we will need more guard rails to address legitimate and pressing concerns of equity in the aftermath of Trump's trade war.
The Irish Sun
26-04-2025
- Politics
- The Irish Sun
Trump vowed to end Ukraine bloodshed in 24 hours – 100 days on, is puppet master Putin calling all the shots?
FIRST it was 24 hours. Then it was a few weeks. 100 days on, Trump is finally calling time on negotiations - peace or not. The US President has slapped Ukraine and Russia with 14 A Ukrainian soldier drives an anti-aircraft machine gun during an air raid alarm Credit: EPA 14 A Ukrainian family picks their way through debris and machinery in the reclaimed town of Bucha Credit: EPA 14 A woman injured by a Russian missile weeps at the site of her destroyed house Credit: Reuters But experts say this was Putin's plan all along and he's Ukraine has far more at stake if the Americans But still Trump publicly Former intelligence officer Philip Ingram told The Sun: "Putin is a master at playing things. read more on war in ukraine "He's sitting back behind his big oak desk in his office in Moscow with a very large glass of Russian vodka over ice." The US has drawn up a In his haste to get a deal, Trump appears to be determined to force Zelensky to bend to his will - GLAD VLAD Ingram said the proposed peace plan "is giving Putin physical ownership of Crimea" and "potentially all" the areas of the Donbas region he took by force. Most read in The Sun Dr Stephen Hall, political scientist at the University of Bath, said the proposal "would reward the Kremlin for what it's done over the past three years". Alan Mendoza, director of the Henry Jackson society, warned: "It's clearly loaded against Ukraine." Life in Ukraine under Putin-Trump carve-up- Families wrenched apart and threat of execution in echo of post-WW2 Germany Meanwhile, Russia has hardly had to give an inch. Mendoza said: "All Putin has had to do is sit there and smile at Steve Witkoff." Hall pointed out that even if Zelensky wanted to release Crimea, he legally could without a referendum, which is impossible during the war. "So Zelensky is in a catch-22," he said. The US reportedly offered up Crimea in exchange for Russia - saying it would freeze the front lines where they are now and stop grabbing land. 14 Trump has made it his mission to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine - but has so far failed Credit: Splash 14 Putin claims to want peace but many say he has not interest in stopping the war Credit: EPA 14 Russian troops march for their Victory Day military parade Credit: AP Ingram said: "Putin would be happy for the frontlines to be stabilised there - whether a full-time peace agreement or just a ceasefire. "It would give him a chance to rebuild his forces up again and take another salami slice off Ukraine, and another." At the moment, Putin is getting "almost everything he wants at a very limited cost", Mendoza added. "That doesn't strike to me as a deal. It strikes to me as a surrender," he said. There are reports that the American offer includes lifting Russian sanctions - "not an accident", according to Mendoza, because Putin "knows the wheels are coming off". PLAYED LIKE A FIDDLE While it's true Trump is unpredictable, Putin has found a way to lead him by the nose, according to Ingram, by whispering in his ear. Ingram said: "He's playing Donald Trump and saying things Trump wants to hear. It's all about giving partial truths and spinning it in a way that's preferential to what you're doing." Time and again, Putin has vowed he's serious about peace while applying the brakes - usually claiming some issue needs slowly ironing out. Very few people believe he is actually seeking peace. But Trump has appeared to give him the benefit of the doubt - until now. He hit out at Putin in a fiery rant on , accusing the tyrant of "stringing him along". Trump said: He said: "There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. "It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?' Too many people are dying!!!" 14 Trump belittled and scolded Zelensky during his trip to the White House Credit: The Mega Agency 14 Ukrainian soldiers walking to their positions in the Donetsk region Credit: EPA 14 Ukraine's 'Siberian Battalion' on a training mission Credit: EPA It comes after Hall said the continued bloodbath "undermines yet again Trump's assertion that Russia wants peace". Mendoza is "puzzled" that Putin has pulled the wool over Trump's eyes so easily. He asked: "President Trump is a great deal maker. Where's the deal here?" Browder says the Trump-Putin dynamic remains mysterious - with the US president lurching from hot to cold. TRUMP IN A RUSH A possible reason for Trump's trip down the garden path is that he's in too much of a rush to realise - or, perhaps, care. He has always made clear he wants to be a president that can end conflicts quickly. And Trump is widely thought to be after the Nobel peace prize - envious of the recognition his predecessor Barack Obama received in 2009. He famously boasted throughout 2024's election campaign that he would end the war in Ukraine in "24 hours". Hall said Ukraine has suffered from this deadline-drive approach. 14 A ballistic missile explodes over Kyiv during a Russian drone strike Credit: Reuters 14 A boy weeps for his friends, 17-year-old Danylo Khudia, killed in a Russian missile attack Credit: Reuters 14 Rescuers pull victims from the rubble after a missile strike on a residential building in Kyiv this month Credit: Getty He said Trump "has this idea that he has to achieve peace in 100 days" - which was always going to favour Russia. And the "easiest way for Trump to his goal is to coerce Ukraine into a corner". But Trump could "walk away quite happily" when he's had enough - meaning Ukraine's position is perilous, Mendoza said. WHAT NOW? If Trump is to be taken at his word, the US is poised drop everything and let Ukraine go it alone. But the White House said his talks with Zelensky before the Pope's funeral were "very productive" - offering a glimmer of hope that peace could be on track. But for as long as Trump is still at the table, Zelensky will keep trying to find a deal. Hall said: "The Ukrainians are trying to work out what they can bring to the table. "Europeans seem to be procrastinating in terms of whether they actually support Ukraine or not. "I think the Ukrainians will propose yet again that yes, they want peace, but they want the 30 day ceasefire first." 14 Grieving Kyiv residents at the site of an apartment building hit by a Russian ballistic missile Credit: AP 14 Mendoza said all Putin has had to do is 'smile at Steve Witkoff' Credit: Reuters However, Hall said Ukraine will never willingly give up Crimea - and Zelensky has already made clear that is not an option. Ingram is cautiously optimistic that Ukraine would fare alright if the US did pull the plug. He said: "Zelensky is in a stronger position - his forces have held the Russians back for the last three years. "Russians are making small advances on the frontline, Ukraine are making small advances. Ukrainian military support from Europe is going to increase dramatically." "By the end of this year, Russia will have almost run out of armoured vehicles it's been refurbishing and sending back to the frontline." Mendoza agreed, adding: "Putin would like to think he's winning on the battlefield [...] but he's losing so many they'll soon have to start recruiting the middle classes."
