Latest news with #regimechange
The Guardian
5 hours ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Iranian opposition supporters grapple with US and Israeli regime change plans
Despite a substantial internet blackout, news spread quickly in Iran on Tuesday night: the US was considering joining Israel in its war on Iran. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now … Our patience is wearing thin,' the US president, Donald Trump, said on Truth Social on Tuesday night. He added three minutes later in a second post: 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' When Mehnaz*, a 24-year-old student activist in east Tehran, heard the news, she did not think of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Instead, she thought of her fellow students who were detained, shot and executed by Iranian security forces during the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests. 'After Mahsa [Amini]'s death, we tried to stand up. Teenagers were shot point blank, our compatriots were hanged. We could never get rid of the Islamic Republic on our own. Now, someone from outside is helping us,' Mehnaz told the Guardian via text on Wednesday after a sleepless night of Israeli bombing. The prospect of imminent US involvement in an Israeli bombing campaign, which is suggested to be in pursuit of regime change, has laid bare deep divides in Iran's population, even among the opposition. Many are deeply suspicious of the US's intentions in Iran, which has a bitter history of foreign adventurism gone awry. Others do not care who is the one to topple the government. A large portion of Iran's population is bitterly opposed to the government, which has only grown more repressive as the country slips deeper into economic crisis. Just two weeks ago, much of the country was paralysed by a nationwide strike in protest of the dismal economic situation. To some of the opposition, anything that could topple the Iranian government is welcome, whether it comes from street protests or US bunker busters. 'Yes, we'll probably have massive destruction in Tehran and other cities, but this regime will fall – and then we can rebuild everything again,' Mehnaz said. The toll of fighting – now in its sixth day – is growing. Israeli strikes have killed at least 585 people and wounded 1,326 others in Iran, according to Iranian media. At least 24 people have been killed and 600 injured by Iranian strikes in Israel. Fighting started after Israel launched hundreds of pre-dawn strikes on Iran last Friday, which it said were aimed at preventing the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran quickly retaliated by firing a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel, kicking off a steadily escalating tit-for-tat war. To Alborz*, an athlete from Tehran, the cost of Israeli bombing was already too high. 'I can't explain how we pass each day, in fear. It feels like I am walking on a street of hot coal and having acid rain down on me,' Alborz said via text. 'We want to get our freedom on our own terms, not through US bombs,' he added. Iran has a long history of foreign intervention that has left the population suspicious of foreign offers of help. A 1953 coup that deposed the democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, was backed by the CIA and MI6 to protect western oil interests. The intelligence plot features heavily in the national narrative of the current government, which overthrew the western-backed Shah of Iran in the country's 1979 revolution. The more recent 21st-century history of US adventurism in the Middle East has inspired further scepticism among Iranians. 'Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq – they destroyed the countries, then walked away. It's funny how they call this 'exporting democracy' while they always have paralysed all the democratic institutions in those countries,' Abbas*, a 26-year-old artist from west Tehran, said. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has called for Iran's opposition to rise up, suggesting in a Monday interview that his military operation could help liberate Iranians from an oppressive regime. 'A light has been lit, carry it to freedom. This is the time, your hour of freedom is near, it's happening now,' Netanyahu told the London-based opposition news outlet Iran International on Monday. His calls rang hollow in Iran, which has seen nightly news broadcasts of starvation, displacement and mass killings in Gaza over the last 36 months. 'Now Trump wants to unite with Israel – and people here are scared. If they come here like they did in other places, we will be left with nothing but ruins and extremist groups,' Abbas said. While Israeli bombings have battered Iran, its country's security services have redoubled their crackdown on dissidents and political organisation. 'Activists and former political prisoners have been rearrested. They're basically targeting anyone who's talking about the war,' said Bahar Ghandehari, the director of advocacy and communications at the US-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. Iranian authorities have restricted internet access in the country, detained activists, and on Saturday arrested 16 people on charges of 'spreading rumours' on social media. The renewed wave of oppression has hardened the desire for regime change for some of the opposition, who now find themselves having to deal not only with Israeli bombings but also fear of arrest. 'Yes, 585 people were killed in this war till now, but in four days of demonstration after Mahsa Amini's killing, almost 1,000 people were killed by the regime,' said Mohammad Reza, a resident of Tehran in his 50s who took part in the 2022 protests. * Names have been changed
Bloomberg
6 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
IMF Says Zimbabwe's Economy Has Made ‘Significant Progress'
The International Monetary Fund said Zimbabwe's economic progress represents a 'regime change,' but declined to say if or when the Washington-based lender would grant it a staff-monitored program. Wojciech Maliszewski, who is visiting the southern African nation to conduct a regular IMF economic health update, said the conduct of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, which has vowed to halt printing money to finance the government, was particularly impressive.
Al Jazeera
11 hours ago
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Israel tried to break Iran – but it may have actually helped unite it
Israel's ongoing military assault on Iran has already become one of the most consequential cross-border strikes in the region's recent history. Far more than a targeted operation against missile silos or nuclear facilities, it has included high-profile assassinations and sophisticated cyberattacks. Among the most significant developments so far has been the assassination of several senior Iranian commanders, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami and the head of its Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh. These targeted killings represent the most severe blow to Iran's military leadership since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Yet, beneath the surface, the assault is not merely a military manoeuvre – it is the expression of a political doctrine decades in the making. While Israeli officials publicly framed the operation as a preemptive act to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, its deeper strategic logic appears increasingly clear: the destabilisation – and eventual collapse – of the Islamic Republic. For years, Israeli and some American strategists have argued – sometimes discreetly, sometimes overtly – that the only durable solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions is regime change. The current campaign aligns with this longstanding objective, not only through military means but also via psychological, political and social pressure inside Iran. Recent developments suggest the operation was designed to provoke the early stages of an internal uprising. The playbook is familiar to observers of past regime‑change efforts: assassinations of top military officials, psychological warfare, disinformation campaigns and the symbolic targeting of state institutions. In Tehran, Israeli‑backed cyberattacks and precision strikes have reportedly hit government buildings and ministries, even temporarily disrupting national television broadcasts – a key pillar of the Islamic Republic's communications infrastructure. Israeli political rhetoric has echoed this direction. In closed briefings and selected media interviews, officials have acknowledged that Iran's deeply fortified underground nuclear facilities – some reportedly buried more than 500 metres (1,640ft) beneath the Zagros and Alborz mountains – cannot be destroyed without full United States participation. Specifically, the operation would require the use of GBU‑57 'Massive Ordnance Penetrator' bombs, deliverable only by American B‑2 or B‑52 strategic bombers. In the absence of such capabilities, Israeli leaders appear to have concluded that halting Iran's nuclear programme is impossible without a change in government. This context lends new meaning to Israel's concurrent military and political efforts. In the aftermath of the attacks, Israeli messaging aimed at the Iranian public intensified, portraying the IRGC not as national defenders but as the chief oppressors of the Iranian people. The messaging sought to separate the Islamic Republic from the Iranian nation with slogans such as: 'This is not Iran's war. This is the regime's war.' Iranian opposition figures abroad – including Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last shah of Iran, and former footballer Ali Karimi – echoed these narratives, expressing support for the strikes and calling for regime change. However, the strategy may have produced the opposite effect. Rather than igniting mass revolt or fracturing national unity, the attacks appear to have consolidated public sentiment across political lines. Many Iranians, including longtime critics of the regime, have expressed anger over what they perceive as a foreign assault on national sovereignty. The collective memory of external intervention – stretching from the CIA‑backed 1953 coup to the Iran‑Iraq War – has reactivated a deeply embedded defensive reflex. Even among activists from the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement – which sparked nationwide protests after the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in police custody – there has been visible reluctance to align with foreign military intervention. As images of bombed‑out buildings and fallen Iranian soldiers circulated, a mood of empathy and solidarity momentarily replaced the demand for regime change. For many, the conversation has shifted from political reform to national defence. Notably, several public figures and former opponents of the Islamic Republic voiced support for Iran and denounced the Israeli attacks. Football legend Ali Daei declared, 'I prefer to die rather than be a traitor,' rejecting cooperation with any foreign assault. Mohsen Borhani, a former judge and political prisoner, wrote, 'I kiss the hands of all defenders of the homeland,' referring to the IRGC and other armed forces. What began as a calculated strike on military targets may be achieving the opposite of its intended outcome. Rather than weakening the regime's hold on power, Israel's actions risk reinforcing it – by rallying national unity and silencing dissent. The attempt to engineer revolution from outside may not only fail – it may backfire. If Israel's ultimate aim was to catalyse a regime collapse, it may have underestimated the historical resilience of Iran's political system and the unifying power of national trauma. As bombs fall and generals die, Iran's social fabric does not appear to be fraying. Instead, it may be stitching itself back together. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
Bloomberg
a day ago
- Politics
- Bloomberg
Iran Regime ‘On the Verge of Collapse': Reza Pahlavi
'The moment is approaching very fast, the regime is on the verge of collapse,' says Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah of Iran, as he discusses the prospect of regime change in Iran amid the Israel-Iran conflict. Pahlavi says there are plans in place not only for 'liberation from this regime,' but also 'the transition to what we hope will come in a democratic outcome.' (Source: Bloomberg)
The Guardian
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Tuesday briefing: What Israel really wants in Iran – and what might come next
Good morning. As the conflict between Iran and Israel has heated up in the days since Israel's surprise attack last week, a consensus has emerged that, while Tehran's nuclear ambitions have been severely compromised, it is all but impossible for Israel to extinguish them permanently without American support. Nonetheless, Israel hopes that scuttling Iran's nuclear talks with the US and severely weakening the regime as a military threat will make its gambit worthwhile. And there is another goal that Benjamin Netanyahu appears to believe is possible: regime change. That phrase, associated as it is with the US-led coalition's disastrous military adventure in Iraq, is something of a taboo in western capitals. But Netanyahu has been publicly bullish about the end of Ayatollah Khamenei's rule: 'I can tell you this, we have indications that senior leaders in Iran are already packing their bags,' he said on Saturday. 'They sense what's coming.' In other statements, Netanyahu has been more ambiguous – and there are good reasons to think that Israel's attacks, extending yesterday to Iran's state broadcaster, may have the opposite effect. For today's newsletter, I spoke to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and north Africa programme at Chatham House, about what Israel really wants, and why a sudden transformation in Tehran still looks very unlikely. Here are the headlines. Grooming gangs | A culture of 'blindness, ignorance and prejudice' led to repeated failures over decades to properly investigate cases in which children were abused by grooming gangs, a report has said. Louise Casey said that the authorities had shied away from collecting data on the ethnicity of perpetrators. Gaza | At least 37 Palestinians were killed on Monday in new shootings near food distribution centres run by private US contractors, local authorities said. The death toll, blamed by witnesses on Israeli troops, was the highest yet reported in the near-daily shootings since the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation began operations three weeks ago. India | Investigators are preparing to study the pilots' last words for clues as to the cause of the Air India plane crash, after recovering the cockpit voice recorder from the wreckage. The voice recorder was in the Boeing 787 aircraft's second black box, which Indian authorities said they had found on Sunday. Carers | The mother of a teenager with cerebral palsy has demanded an end to the 'sickening harassment' of unpaid carers after a significant legal victory against the government. Nicola Green was pursued by the Department for Work and Pensions for more than a year after she was accused of fraudulently claiming nearly £3,000 in carer's allowance. UK news | A second person who died in a tandem skydiving incident in Devon has been identified as Adam Harrison, 30, from Bournemouth. Emergency services were called to the area around Dunkeswell aerodrome on Friday. Harrison, who was a tandem skydive instructor, and Belinda Taylor, 48, from Totnes, were confirmed dead at the scene. In much of the discussion around the 'existential threat' that Israel says it faces from Iran, the focus has been on the risk of Tehran developing nuclear weapons. Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that nuclear weapons and Iran's existing ballistic missiles were the primary targets of the Israeli operation. But his comments have also left plenty of space to ask whether there is another goal: the removal of the Iranian regime. Israel acted 'to not only protect ourselves, but protect the world from this incendiary regime', he said. And after the first wave of attacks, he called for 'the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime'. So is that a serious aim – and what might Iran's future look like if it happened? Does Israel want regime change in Iran? There is little doubt that it 'would be a dreamlike scenario for the Israeli political establishment', Sanam Vakil said. But there is a difference between a dream outcome and a realistic strategic goal. 'Since the 7 October attacks, there has been a consensus in Israel that Iran has to be cut down to size. But privately, military and intelligence officials tend to see regime change itself as very hard to achieve.' What is less clear is what Netanyahu and his political allies really want, or believe to be feasible. 'Seeing Iran as the primary security threat and enemy of Israel is something he's spoken about for two decades,' Vakil said. His foreign policy has generally focused on containment rather than direct confrontation – but that is partly because previous US presidents, and even Trump in his first term, have been less tolerant of Israeli aggression than the White House now appears. 'Since October 7, Israel's calculations have shifted, and it's unclear how serious he is about this now. At best, they can try to weaken the regime and let the dominoes fall.' Some analysts have voiced the view that while it suits Israel to call for regime change now, as a way to destabilise Iran, it is less clear that it would be its preferred outcome in reality. In an X post that she acknowledged presented an 'increasingly unpopular opinion', Maryam Alemzadeh, a professor of Iranian politics at Oxford, argued that Israel 'wants a hardliner state who tries to retaliate and make Israel the victim, but fails to inflict much damage'. She said that regime change would ultimately mean that 'Iran as the straw man enemy that Israel relies on would disappear'. Has Israel's attack changed the views of ordinary Iranians? On its face, Netanyahu's appeal to the Iranian people would appear to suggest that he hopes the instability created by Israel's attacks will stoke the already significant discontent in Iran – and bring about a popular uprising. In a country of more than 90 million people who have limited opportunities for public expression, it is obviously foolish to claim knowledge of what 'the Iranian people' want. 'I don't have a handle on the diversity of views in Iran, and I doubt that Israel does, either,' Vakil said. But it is perhaps more likely that the attacks will have the opposite effect. The Iranian health ministry claims that 90% of casualties so far are civilians; the Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, has threatened that 'the residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon' for Iranian retaliation against Israeli residential areas. 'That doesn't play well in Iran,' Vakil said. 'There is, perhaps, an arrogance in asking people who have long been suppressed by their government to come out and topple the regime in response to an Israeli attack.' This piece by William Christou and Deepa Parent, reporting on emergency admissions to a Tehran hospital, gives a sense of how unconvincing a messenger Israel is now likely to appear to many Iranians. In general, Iranians have not appeared supportive of their government's 'axis of resistance' anti-Israel strategy in recent years. But now there may well be a 'rebound effect', Vakil said: 'What Israel and Netanyahu are doing is creating more antipathy among a civilian population that wasn't very animated about Israel at all.' Could Israel topple the regime without Iranian civilian support? Set aside the slim prospects of a sudden popular uprising: Israel might also hope that its attacks will precipitate the regime's removal by other means. And, Vakil said, the Islamic republic has clearly been weakened by Israel's attack: 'This could certainly be the beginning of a transformation, and you can imagine a domino effect that leads to new people at the top.' But while Israel's success in killing senior military leaders has shocked the Iranian establishment, there was little impact on civilian and clerical leadership. In any case, Vakil said, the Iranian state is not so shaky that the loss of individuals would be likely to precipitate a wholesale change. 'The symbolism of taking out the top echelon of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps], which is enshrined in the Iranian constitution as the protector against external and internal threats, is not lost on people. It reveals a system that can not manage its own security. 'It is important and deeply traumatic and embarrassing for the Islamic republic, but it would be a little too triumphant to think that it means the regime is going to collapse as a result.' There is another problem: the vector of the Israeli assault. The historic evidence of regime change brought about through war suggests that it is rarely the result of aerial attack alone, Vakil said. 'Unless the United States suddenly decides that it wants to roll in with boots on the ground, and that it is prepared to engage in a military operation like the one in Iraq, it is very hard to see the Islamic republic being toppled overnight.' Would the death of Ayatollah Khamenei change that? On Sunday, Reuters reported a remarkable claim from senior US administration officials: that Israel had a plan to kill the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but that it was vetoed by the White House. If such an operation had been successful – the same report said that Israel believed it had an opportunity to take Khamenei out – the rupture to Iran's political structures would clearly have been even more profound. But, Vakil said, Iran is not like Iraq under Saddam Hussein or Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, where so much power was vested in a single person that their removal could be expected to bring about a fundamental change. 'Power in Iran is institutionalised, not personalised,' she said. 'It would be a massive blow, of course. But the regime would quickly convene and decide what to do.' One good reason to be sceptical that Khamenei's removal would be transformative: Iran is already planning for a future without the 86-year-old. Under the pressure of international sanctions, there has been little public discussion of succession, Vakil said: 'Part of why the regime had agreed to negotiate with Trump is that they wanted to create the space for that process to play out in the public domain.' Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion What might a new regime look like? In this thread on X on Saturday, Vakil laid out some scenarios that might unfold, ranging from a sectarian civil war with a power vacuum at the centre to a coup by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A pluralistic democracy does not make the list. 'It's not readily apparent that it's a possibility,' she said, as there is no organised opposition in Tehran, while the exiled opposition has few friends at home. 'Even among the diaspora, there are so many opinions about what a revolutionary regime change moment should look like. And within the country there is paralysis. You can confidently say that the majority of the country is deeply unhappy with the leadership of the Islamic republic – but I don't have a sense that Iranians can articulate a coherent view of what they want instead.' Over the past five days, the UK Aids Memorial Quilt, which commemorates those who have died of the disease, has been viewed by thousands of deeply moved people at London's Tate Modern – revealing it to be, argues Charlie Porter, one of the most significant artworks of the past 40 years. Alex Needham, acting head of newsletters Ahead of Friday's vote on assisted dying, Gordon Brown writes that 'there is no effective freedom to choose if the alternative option, the freedom to draw on high-quality end-of-life care, is not available'. For MPs, he argues, that makes the moral duty to vote no inescapable. Archie The fact that Donald Trump's military parade turned out to be a washout shouldn't cheer his opponents too much, writes Moira Doneghan. While we can laugh at his intensely naff attempts to ape strongman dictators, the sinister intent behind them is all too sincere. Alex If you've spent any time on the internet, you've probably seen a competition to win a house in a raffle. Kate McCusker talks to some of the people who tried to sell their properties in this unconventional way – with mixed results. Alex Ross Minor has a singular ambition: to make it possible for blind people to play any video game they want. This Wired profile is a totally fascinating read about accessibility, bloody-minded determination, and the life-changing power of Pokémon. Archie Football | Pedro Neto and Enzo Fernández both scored and Liam Delap made his Chelsea debut as Chelsea beat Los Angeles FC 2-0 in the Club World Cup. The match was played in front of 22,137 fans in a 75,000 capacity stadium in Atlanta. Tennis | Dan Evans opened up the men's tournament at Queen's Club with his biggest win for more than two years, toppling Frances Tiafoe – the world No 13 – 7-5, 6-2. Cameron Norrie, meanwhile, endured a difficult defeat against the 19-year-old eighth seed Jakub Mensik, losing 7-6 (6), 1-6, 6-1. Athletics | The father of the double Olympic champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen has been found guilty of hitting the Norwegian runner's younger sister, Ingrid, with a wet towel, and handed a 15-day suspended sentence. However, Gjert Ingebrigtsen, who coached Jakob to 1500-metre gold at the Tokyo Games in 2021 before an acrimonious split a year later, was acquitted of charges of physical and verbal abuse against his son. 'Israel warns Iranians to flee as deadly air raids continue' says today's Guardian front page, while the Financial Times has 'Israel claims 'control' of Tehran skies'. Many other newspapers lead on the Casey report on grooming gangs. 'Blindness Ignorance Prejudice Defensiveness' – the four things that failed the victims, says the Metro, while the i paper reports 'Generation of girls let down by police, councils and MPs who ignored UK grooming gangs'. 'Conspiracy of silence over race doomed thousands of girls to abuse' – that's the Daily Mail, while the Express has 'Let's 'uncover a lot of truth' in sex gangs inquiry'. The Times runs with 'Ethnicity 'brushed aside' in grooming gang inquiries' while the Mirror insists 'Never again'. The Telegraph's version is 'Asylum seekers behind new grooming gang cases'. Israel's war with Iran: what does it want? It has been five days since Israel attacked Iran and the civilian death toll is rising, but its war aims seem to have changed. Julian Borger reports A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad Each one of the millions of parents and children who have enjoyed the books of Julia Donaldson will have their own unique ranking of her works. From The Gruffalo to Superworm, Room on the Broom to Zog, there are almost limitless combinations – but in this piece, Stuart Heritage gives it his best shot at naming the 15 very best. And whether you agree or disagree with Stuart, here's a chance to tell the Guardian community team about the most revered Donaldson text in your household. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday And finally, the Guardian's puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply
