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Super Micro Stock Falls 23%: Falling Knife Or Buying Opportunity?
Super Micro Stock Falls 23%: Falling Knife Or Buying Opportunity?

Forbes

time3 hours ago

  • Business
  • Forbes

Super Micro Stock Falls 23%: Falling Knife Or Buying Opportunity?

Super Micro Computer stock (NASDAQ:SMCI) has declined by close to 23% over the last five trading sessions, falling to about $45 per share. The sell-off follows the company's tough Q4 2025 earnings report, which missed estimates and saw margins contract. SMCI was touted as a major AI play amid surging demand for its servers, which are essential for deploying the latest AI GPU chips. SMCI built its growth story around a product roadmap tightly aligned with Nvidia's GPU cycle. The company has typically been quicker, compared to peers, to supply server systems that support Nvidia's latest products, given its modular system designs, advanced cooling and power infrastructure, and close collaboration with Nvidia on software and hardware integration. It also holds a first-mover advantage in the once-niche but increasingly critical liquid-cooling systems market. So what's going wrong? A couple of things, it turns out. Competition Hits Revenue Growth Over the most recent quarter, net sales came in at $5.8 billion. That's translates into a growth rate of just about 8% year-over-year, while net income per share stood at $0.31, down from $0.46 in Q4'24. Why is this happening? The company is witnessing intensifying competition in the AI server market from the likes of Dell, HPE, and Lenovo and this could be threatening growth rates and profitability. These larger rivals also boast broader portfolios, including proprietary technologies and software, as well as potentially stronger supply chains. This allows them to offer end-to-end solutions, from hardware to software ecosystems, which SMCI might not be able to match. Moreover, these companies may be the preferred choice for enterprises already invested in their broader IT infrastructure. Dell and HPE also provide more comprehensive global coverage, and they might be able to eventually outdo SMCI on both price and performance. Margin Troubles Gross margins have also been a major sore point for the company. While margins stood at close to 17% in Q4 FY'23, they fell to about 11% in Q4 FY'24 (June fiscal year) as the company noted that it was lowering prices in order to secure new design wins. However, there have been no signs of a margin revival despite rising volumes. Over Q4 FY'25, gross margin further declined to 9.5%. While the company says that costs are partly due to the shift in Nvidia's platform transition from Hopper to Blackwell AI chips, it should be noted that the server market is highly commoditized and competition will keep prices and margins in check. Some of the company's recent margin contraction has been due to a rising mix of more costly liquid-cooling systems, which are crucial for AI workloads. While SMCI has resolved many technical challenges such as condensation in liquid cooling, the rollout remains costly. HPE, Dell, Lenovo, and others are also rolling out advanced and highly scalable liquid-cooling solutions, and this could also hurt SMCI's early edge. If margins remain this low, instead of driving earnings, SMCI could end up scaling a low-margin business without creating real value for shareholders. (Why Are SMCI Margins So Low?) SMCI Not Delivering On Outlook Investors may also be given to think that SMCI has been over-promising and under-delivering. SMCI has slashed its full-year revenue guidance twice in consecutive quarters, lowering expectations from an initial 87% revenue growth for the year to just 49%. The large downward revision indicating that the company has not been able to accurately size up demand. The company has also fairly consistently missed consensus earnings estimates in recent quarters, suggesting its overall growth trajectory may have been overestimated. As we've noted in the past, investors must be cautious with investing in SMCI stock. Super Micro has faced significant controversy over the past year, including allegations of accounting irregularities, delays in SEC filings, and scrutiny from short-sellers. Although some of these issues have eased in the last few months following the company's recent filing of its financial statements, the mixed earnings and declining margins, coupled with a spotty track record of corporate governance, suggest that investors may need to proceed with caution on SMCI stock. While it looks like there may not currently be too much upside to SMCI stock, the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

Battlefield 6 open beta hopefuls are reporting 48,000-player queues before the beta's even started, but Secure Boot errors and shader compilations mean PC players probably should be getting an early start
Battlefield 6 open beta hopefuls are reporting 48,000-player queues before the beta's even started, but Secure Boot errors and shader compilations mean PC players probably should be getting an early start

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Yahoo

Battlefield 6 open beta hopefuls are reporting 48,000-player queues before the beta's even started, but Secure Boot errors and shader compilations mean PC players probably should be getting an early start

When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Battlefield 6 beta access hasn't even begun yet, but that hasn't stopped eager players from absolutely flooding the servers trying to get an early taste. Pre-loaded Battlefield 6 players have already made an impact on the Steam charts, and it seems they're still trucking in by the bucketful, with some folks landing in queues upwards of 50,000 players long. There have been numerous reports of long queues in the beta as of this morning, but the biggest I've seen comes from this Reddit post reporting a position of 48,100th in line. It's probably too early for doom and gloom about the state of the beta servers – I hopped into the pre-loaded beta just a few minutes ago without any queue time, so the lines might just have been a quirk of the servers spinning up. If you're playing on PC, you might want to try and launch the beta early for two reasons. First is the now-standard shader compilation wait, which was pretty fast on my machine, but will still slow you down for a bit when the Battlefield 6 beta times and dates arrive. Better to get it out of the way now. A bigger time sink might be the Secure Boot error that many players are facing – an issue I also ran into as I tried to launch the beta. Battlefield 6 requires Secure Boot as part of its anti-cheat features, so you'll need to head into your BIOS to enable it. EA has a big guide on how to enable Secure Boot on its official support site, and I'll give you one extra tip now: you need the UEFI mode rather than the Legacy/CSM boot enabled. EA says Secure Boot "supports the need for enhanced security while playing and utilizing new anti-cheat features in Battlefield. As cheat developers continue to evolve their tactics, we're stepping up our game too. Requiring Secure Boot provides us with features that we can leverage against cheats that attempt to infiltrate during the Windows boot process." Intrusive anti-cheat measures have been a matter of some controversy for PC players in recent years, so it'll be up to individual players to decide if better protection from cheaters is worth giving a game deeper access to their computer. Just make your decision quick, because this beta is kicking off on August 7 in early access and August 9 for everyone. Check out our guide to the Battlefield 6 beta rewards and Twitch Drops you can expect.

This Is the Most Outdated Piece of Italy Travel Advice, According to an Longtime Resident
This Is the Most Outdated Piece of Italy Travel Advice, According to an Longtime Resident

Travel + Leisure

time2 days ago

  • Travel + Leisure

This Is the Most Outdated Piece of Italy Travel Advice, According to an Longtime Resident

I've lived in Italy for 16 years, and I've been writing about Italy for almost that long. I've watched as the numbers of travelers have surged, sunk to pandemic lows, and rebounded to nearly unsustainable levels. Through it all, I've seen a certain once-rare practice evolve to the point that it's more the norm than not—even for Italians. And that's tipping in restaurants. Tipping, especially in sit-down restaurants, is now very much practiced in Italy. And travel guidebooks, influencers, and Italy 'experts' who say otherwise are giving outdated advice, and, in my book, being kind of ignorant and mean-spirited. But tipping a server in Italy doesn't mean adding a hefty 20 percent or more to your tab, as you might do in the U.S. Here are some basics that will help you leave a decent tip, make a bella figura (a good impression), and forge a little international diplomacy. Here are a few pointers on how much to tip at restaurants: A per-person service charge, often listed as coperta or pane e coperta is almost always part of your final bill. Any tip you leave is in addition to this, which is part of the reason tips can be smaller in Italy. For all but the most expensive meals, leaving a tip of just a few euros is sufficient. You may just round up, say by leaving €20 for an €18 lunch tab. For larger parties and longer meals where you've occupied a table the entire night, a €10 or €20 tip will be greatly appreciated by your server. If you pay by credit card, you probably won't have the option to add the tip to the card charge. Just leave cash, and make sure it gets into the hands of your server. If you've had bad, rushed or indifferent service, don't feel obligated to tip. In Italy, as elsewhere, tipping your server is an act of kindness, generosity, and appreciation. And because we tip less here, leaving a few extra euro in thanks for good service won't make or break your vacation budget, and it's an easy and fairly painless way to be a better guest when you visit the Il Bel Paese—and we can always use more of those.

Vegas tipping drops drastically as visitors say service doesn't match higher costs
Vegas tipping drops drastically as visitors say service doesn't match higher costs

Fox News

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Fox News

Vegas tipping drops drastically as visitors say service doesn't match higher costs

Las Vegas servers say they're feeling the heat as high prices and declining tourism hammer their tip earnings across the Strip. Tipping in Sin City is reportedly down by as much as 50% among servers, as some of them blame the economy and policy while others point to high prices, a tipping backlash and poor service. On Reddit's r/VegasLocals forum, one cocktail waitress wrote, "I used to average about 80 cents a drink. Now I'm averaging about 10 cents." "We are working triple what we used to and making a quarter of what we did," another person added on the forum. Jacob Soto, 22, a supervisor at Pinkbox Doughnuts in downtown Las Vegas, told The Wall Street Journal that he used to make up to $200 a week in credit card tips, but now only earns between $100 and $150. While the city saw an 11.3% drop in overall visitation in June compared to the same time last year, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), international travel to Vegas is down approximately 10% year over year. Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer of the Culinary Workers Union, which represents 60,000 Vegas workers, said federal immigration and economic policies are keeping international travelers away. "The unions and the industry and the government need to get together and repair the damage and welcome tourism back," he told Fox News Digital. Pappageorge called the tipped income tax exemption proposed in President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" a "welcome relief." He pointed out, however, that if workers aren't "making the tips, the credit doesn't help." "Guests are pushing back on $18 bottles of water in the minibar and $37 martinis." He said companies have already frozen hiring and made targeted staffing cuts, with part-time workers – who make up 25% of the union's membership – being the first to lose hours. "If it continues, it could bleed into the full-timers," he added. Some industry observers assert the problem is more local. "Many attribute this not only to a general dip in international travel demand to the U.S., but also to aggressive price-gouging by hospitality venues," Rob DelliBovi, a consultant and founder of the Miami-based RDB Hospitality Group, told Fox News Digital. "Guests are pushing back on $18 bottles of water in the minibar and $37 martinis." Many people in the r/VegasLocals thread agree. Said one Redditor, "Twenty-five-dollar drinks … $30 pancakes, $35 burgers … and on top of it you have to tip?" Added another person, "Nobody wants to give you 20% on top of the already exorbitantly overpriced s---." A beer recently cost nearly $15 at a casino, yet another person said. "I'm tired of tipping for everything." "What that translates to is me drinking less beer and tipping less," the person said. "I understand that casinos have costs, but this is absurd." "I'm tired of tipping for everything, as quality of service has consistently gone down," another person wrote. One Vegas waitress, who requested anonymity out of fear of losing her job, also said she thinks the quality of service has declined. "For the price, it should be impeccable," she told Fox News Digital. She said aggressive upselling tactics, repetitive restaurant concepts and a lack of genuine hospitality are turning off tourists and locals alike. As a result, she said she's also seen tip revenue decrease by half compared to last summer. The waitress said businesses on the Strip need to return to the basics of hospitality and focus on local clientele rather than only international customers. "The locals don't want to pay double for food that's not any better and for servers to be rude," she said. Despite the downturn, Vegas has not lost its hustle yet, DelliBovi said. "Sales teams in Las Vegas are already strategizing on how to reinvigorate the market and drive business back up for the fall," he said. Even as reports indicate Las Vegas tourism is down overall, Circa Resort & Casino CEO Derek Stevens recently told Fox News Digital the assessment may be "premature." "In specific pockets, like where we at Circa Las Vegas are located in downtown — I think people feel there's maybe a little better value. Things were really booming," Stevens said. He added, "If you really start unpeeling some layers of the onion in Las Vegas, I think you're going to find companies that have very specific areas that are a little less subject to the economy and that are doing OK." Ashley DiMella and Larry Fink, both of Fox News Digital, contributed reporting.

Is Super Micro Computer Stock Headed for $15 or $70 After Giant Post-Earnings Plunge?
Is Super Micro Computer Stock Headed for $15 or $70 After Giant Post-Earnings Plunge?

Yahoo

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Is Super Micro Computer Stock Headed for $15 or $70 After Giant Post-Earnings Plunge?

After putting accounting controversies and Nasdaq delisting fears stemming from the delayed filings in the rearview mirror, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) had been on a strong recovery run this year. SMCI stock once again regained traction as investors bet big on its leadership in the artificial intelligence (AI) hardware space, growing demand for next-gen servers, and close partnership with chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) — all of which painted a promising growth story. But the narrative took a sharp turn in the wrong direction after the company dropped its fourth-quarter earnings report on Aug. 5. Shares of SMCI sank more than 18% in the following trading session, as Super Micro missed Wall Street's expectations on both revenue and earnings. Even guidance fell short, sparking fresh concerns about slowing growth and rising competition. More News from Barchart Robinhood Stock Seemingly Can't Be Stopped in 2025. Is It Too Late to Buy HOOD Here? Dear Ford Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendar for August 11 Cathie Wood Is Buying Shares of This Little-Known Ethereum Treasury Company. Should You? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Investor sentiment around SMCI stock has clearly taken a hit, and analysts' opinions are now deeply divided. On one end, the most bullish target on Wall Street suggests that SMCI stock could soar to $70, while on the other side, the most bearish sees it dropping all the way to $15 per share. So, with expectations stretched so far apart, can SMCI defy the doubts and reclaim its momentum? Or is there more downside still to come? About Super Micro Stock Super Micro Computer specializes in building high-powered, energy-efficient servers to support surging demand from AI, cloud services, and data centers. With operations across the U.S., Taiwan, and the Netherlands, the company has built a solid international footprint and currently holds a market capitalization of $27.8 billion. After sliding last year under the weight of negative headlines, SMCI stock came roaring back in 2025, hitting a fresh high of $66.44 in February. Even after pulling back some 32% from that peak, the stock remains up an impressive 50% so far this year, well ahead of the broader S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) modest 8.5% gain year-to-date (YTD). However, the comeback rally appears to be facing turbulence lately. SMCI is once again under pressure following its latest earnings miss, with shares tumbling 19% in just the past five trading days. A Look Inside Super Micro's Q4 Earnings Super Micro's fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings report released earlier this month came as a letdown to investors, missing Wall Street's expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue for the quarter rose 7.4% year-over-year (YOY) to $5.8 billion but still fell short of the $5.9 billion analysts had expected. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.41, marking a notable 24% decline from the prior year and falling below the consensus estimate of $0.44, partly because of the impact from President Donald Trump's tariffs on goods imported into the United States. While the company pointed to tariffs as a key reason for the earnings shortfall, the miss stung even more given the backdrop of soaring demand for AI infrastructure, which had set investors' expectations sky high. Instead of a blowout quarter, the results revealed mounting cost pressures and thinner margins, casting doubt on Super Micro's ability to deliver strong profits even as sales continue to rise. A key red flag was the drop in gross margin, which slipped to 9.5% from 10.2% a year ago. The decline suggests the company may be facing pricing pressure or higher costs, likely tied to competitive dynamics or more expensive AI components. As of June 30, Super Micro reported $5.2 billion in cash and equivalents, alongside $4.8 billion in total bank debt and convertible notes. Unfortunately, the disappointment didn't end at Super Micro's Q4 financials. The company's guidance for Q1 of fiscal 2026 also fell short of expectations. Management expects revenue to land between $6 billion and $7 billion, while adjusted EPS is expected to be between $0.40 and $0.52. Both of these figures miss Wall Street's forecasts for $6.6 billion in revenue and $0.59 in EPS. Over the longer term, analysts tracking Super Micro project the company's bottom line to rise 19.2% YOY to $2.05 per share in fiscal 2026, then leap 21% annually to $2.49 in fiscal 2027. What Do Analysts Think About Super Micro Stock? After the disappointing Q4 showing, several Wall Street analysts struck a more cautious tone. For instance, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee lowered the firm's price target to $45 from $46, maintaining a 'Neutral' rating. Chatterjee pointed to capital constraints and customer hesitation as key reasons the company fell short of expectations. On the other hand, Bank of America Securities analyst Ruplu Bhattacharya slightly raised the price target to $37 from $35 while sticking with an 'Underperform' rating. The analyst noted that gross margins were pressured once again, this time due to inventory reserves for older products. Bhattacharya explained that many customers are opting to wait for Nvidia's upcoming B300/GB300 GPUs, which has weighed on current demand. Overall, Wall Street sentiment on Super Micro is tilting cautious, with SMCI stock earning a consensus rating of 'Hold.' Among the 16 analysts covering the stock, opinions are clearly mixed. Only four recommend a 'Strong Buy,' while three lean toward a 'Moderate Buy.' The majority of analysts take a wait-and-see approach, with six suggesting 'Hold.' On the bearish side, one analyst has a 'Moderate Sell' rating for SMCI and two assign a 'Strong Sell' rating, reflecting growing uncertainty around the company's near-term outlook. SMCI stock has a Street-high price target of $70, indicating nearly 54% potential upside. The lowest target of $15 suggests a steep 67% drop from current levels. Key Takeaways Super Micro's wide price target range, spanning from $15 to a Street-high of $70, underscores the uncertainty surrounding its near-term trajectory. While some analysts remain bullish on its long-term AI-driven potential, others are wary of execution risks and margin pressures. With sentiment this divided, the stock's path forward may remain volatile as investors wait for more apparent signs of sustained growth. On the date of publication, Anushka Mukherji did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on

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