How Pakistan rhetoric threatens nuclear non-attack pact with India

India Today

19-05-2025

Pakistan, in its continuing escalation of rhetoric over Operation Sindoor, has threatened to suspend all bilateral agreements with India, including the critical India-Pakistan Non-Attack Agreement on Nuclear Installations, amidst rising tensions triggered by India's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance.This threat has brought the longstanding nuclear accord, a cornerstone of regional nuclear stability, into sharp focus, raising concerns in diplomatic and security circles worldwide.advertisementPakistan's provocative move followed a stark warning from its ambassador to Russia Muhammad Khalid Jamali, who on May 4 stated that Islamabad 'would use nuclear weapons' if India launched military action. The statement has deepened anxiety over South Asia's fragile nuclear stability and pushed the 1988 nuclear non-attack agreement to the centre of geopolitical conversations.Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his recent address to the nation, sent a strong message in response to what he called Pakistan's 'nuclear blackmail'. 'India will not tolerate any nuclear blackmail. We have only kept in abeyance our operations against Pakistan; the future will depend on their behaviour. Operation Sindoor is now India's new policy against terrorism— a new line has been drawn,' Modi declared, signalling a hardened stance.
The India-Pakistan Non-Attack Agreement, signed on December 31, 1988, and in force since January 27, 1991, mandates both nations to refrain from attacking each other's nuclear facilities and to exchange lists of such installations annually on January 1. This confidence-building measure—one of the few to survive decades of conflict—saw its 34th consecutive exchange this year, as confirmed by the ministry of external affairs on January 1.advertisementThe agreement encompasses a wide range of nuclear facilities, including research reactors, uranium enrichment plants, fuel fabrication units and other establishments dealing with radioactive materials. Over the years, it has stood as a rare pillar of restraint and transparency, even during periods of intense hostility between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.However, Pakistan's renewed nuclear posturing and threats to revoke the pact have reignited international concerns. The nuclear flashpoint has prompted questions not just about regional stability but also about Islamabad's nuclear responsibility.Back in 2022, US president Joe Biden had labelled Pakistan as 'the most dangerous country in the world', citing its nuclear arsenal and lack of internal cohesion. The same year, the US commerce department blacklisted Pakistani firms for diverting items to its nuclear programme, adding fuel to international suspicions.Recently, after the pause in military offensive between India and Pakistan, defence minister Rajnath Singh, while addressing troops in Kashmir, openly questioned whether nuclear weapons were 'safe in the hands of an irresponsible and rogue nation' and called upon the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to supervise Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.Amidst media speculation about whether Indian military strikes during Operation Sindoor had hit Pakistan's Kirana Hills—a known nuclear site—the IAEA clarified that there was no radiation leak or nuclear incident in Pakistan. The Indian Air Force (IAF) also denied targeting any nuclear facility, with Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, director general air operations, stating categorically: 'We have not hit Kirana Hills, whatever is there.'advertisementAccording to a 2024 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India currently holds 172 nuclear warheads, slightly up from 164 in 2023, while Pakistan's count stands at 170, unchanged from last year. However, Pakistan's ally China has surged way ahead, amassing 500 warheads, adding a complex third dimension to South Asia's nuclear dynamics.As the diplomatic fallout deepens, global attention is now fixated on whether Pakistan will formally suspend the nuclear non-attack pact—a move that could unravel one of the last remaining safety valves in a volatile neighbourhood already on the edge.Subscribe to India Today MagazineTune InMust Watch