Bending, breaking, yielding

Politico

11-05-2025

Presented by The American Council of Life Insurers
With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
Good Sunday afternoon. Happy Mother's Day. It's Adam Wren. Get in touch.
DRIVING THE DAY
President Donald Trump campaigned as a leader who would 'never give in,' 'never give up,' 'never back down,' not to mention one who promised to 'NEVER QUIT,' 'NEVER BEND,' 'NEVER BREAK,' and 'NEVER YIELD.'
And yet in recent days, Trump and his administration officials have done nearly all of those things on any number of issues, foreign and domestic.
Abroad, amid a historic conflagration between India and Pakistan, Vice President JD Vance said on Fox News just days ago the conflict was 'fundamentally none of our business.' Yet less than 24 hours later, Vance and Secretary of State (and national security adviser) Marco Rubio found themselves enmeshed in the kind of American interventionism of which MAGA has expressed skepticism and even disdain. Call it a bend — one that took place, of course, amid a nuclear threat.
'What drove Mr. Vance and Mr. Rubio into action was evidence that the Pakistani and Indian Air Forces had begun to engage in serious dogfights, and that Pakistan had sent 300 to 400 drones into Indian territory to probe its air defenses,' the NYT's David Sanger, Julian Barnes and Maggie Haberman write. 'But the most significant causes for concern came late Friday, when explosions hit the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, the garrison city adjacent to Islamabad.'
Across the globe, Trump is now frustrated with his own efforts at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, something he promised to do 'on day one,' though he now says he was joking, as WSJ's Josh Dawsey and Alex Ward write.
Yielding: Closer to home, in his Oval Office meeting on Tuesday with Canada's new Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said in response to Trump's effort to make the nation the 51st state that, 'As you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale.' Trump yielded, saying 'that's true.'
Backing down: The same day, Trump withdrew the nomination of Ed Martin, a longtime champion of accused Jan. 6 rioters, to be the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia. He backed down.
Bending: On Friday, Trump again all but backed down on his ''TINY' tax increase for the RICH,' conceding that 'Republicans should probably not do it, but I'm OK if they do!!!' Certainly a bend, if not a break.
Now … Trump faces a question of whether to bend, break or yield on one of his signature campaign promises: No taxes on tips. The early version of the tax bill released by House Republicans on Friday — and due for a committee vote on Tuesday — did not include the proposal at all. (More on that below.)
WHAT ELSE IS ON THE HORIZON …
Expect to hear a whole lot about this: ABC's Jonathan Karl and Katherine Faulders have the buzziest article of the morning: President Trump is poised to accept a Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet from the royal family of Qatar as a kind of Air Force One in what looks to be the most valuable foreign gift to the U.S. ever. It will be available for use by President Trump 'until shortly before he leaves office, at which time ownership of the plane will be transferred to the Trump presidential library foundation,' ABC reports.
Is that legal? The 'White House counsel's office and the Department of Justice drafted an analysis for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth concluding that is legal for the Department of Defense to accept the aircraft as a gift and later turn it over to the Trump library,' per ABC. The gift is expected to be announced in the coming week, as Trump visits the Middle East. Speaking of …
Trip preview: Tomorrow, the president embarks on a four-day trip, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. But don't expect it to be heavy on geopolitics, write WaPo's Michael Birnbaum and Matt Viser: Trump's focus is on business deals.
SUNDAY BEST …
— Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, on air safety and America's air traffic control system, on NBC's 'Meet the Press': 'The lights are blinking, the sirens are turning … because what you see in Newark is gonna happen in other places across the country.'
— Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova on Trump's Truth Social post that it's a 'potentially great day' for Russia and Ukraine, on ABC's 'This Week': 'Any day potentially could be a great day. And we have heard loud and clear from President Trump that ceasefires should be full and unconditional. ... Nobody wants peace more than Ukraine. The question of the day is whether Russia wants it, because today, 108 Shahed drones again hit residential areas in Kyiv Oblast.'
… On Trump and Zelenskyy's relationship: 'We will focus on the future. And sometimes friends can disagree. But that's [a] disagreement among friends. We all have the same goals of sovereign and prosperous Ukraine, as we have heard from our leadership and your leadership.'
— Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) on a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, on NBC's 'Meet the Press': 'The killing needs to stop. And I think the 30-day ceasefire is something that Putin needs to accept. Look, a longstanding peace in that part of the world between Ukraine and Russia … is going to be good for Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and the United States. And we wouldn't be in this position if we'd had a strong leader previously.'
— Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) on whether she'd run for president again, on NBC's 'Meet the Press': 'I am focused on my job right now. I'm third in leadership in the Senate, and we have a lot to do, and that means making sure people have got their Medicaid, their Social Security and taking on these Trump tariffs that are hurting the American people and our economy and not helping small businesses. I want a better America, and I just don't think that's how we're going to get there with this president.'
TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week's must-read opinion pieces.
9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
1. THE TRADE WAR: The second day of talks between top Chinese and U.S. officials is underway in Geneva, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in an effort to decrease tensions between the two economic powers.
The readout from Day One: Yesterday, the group met for around eight hours. Neither side commented on 'the substance of the discussions nor signalled any specific progress towards reducing steep trade barriers,' as Reuters reports. But President Trump took to Truth Social to declare that a 'total reset' of the U.S.-China relationship had been negotiated 'in a friendly, but constructive, manner.' He did not offer specifics.
What Trump is thinking: 'Trump has opened the door for lower tariffs. He said in recent days that they couldn't get much higher than the current 145%, so that it was likely they would eventually come down,' writes WSJ's Brian Schwartz. 'And Friday, he suggested lowering tariffs to 80%. … Some administration officials viewed Trump's 80% idea as a public message to encourage Bessent to try to get closer to completing an arrangement that would lower China's tariff rate to around 80%.'
Are Trump's tariffs making money? That's the big question behind a useful new interactive project from POLITICO. As of May 8, the U.S. has generated $46.6 billion this year from tariffs, according to Treasury Department data. That's 46.3% more than the same time last year, but massively short of the amount of money that would be needed to replace the revenue generated by income taxes ($2.4 trillion in 2024), as Trump administration officials argue is possible.
2. RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: Yesterday, 'Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed restarting direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15, 'without preconditions,'' report AP's Samya Kullab and Joanna Kozlowska. This morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy 'responded cautiously,' NYT's Andrew Kramer reports: He called the interest in talks a 'positive sign,' but insists on an immediate ceasefire as a precondition.
Why now? 'The back and forth … came after the leaders of France, Britain, Germany and Poland visited Kyiv and announced a Monday deadline for Russia to accept a 30-day cease-fire or face additional sanctions,' per the Times. 'The European leaders, who spoke by phone from Kyiv on Saturday with President Trump, said that the United States would also impose sanctions on Russia if Mr. Putin did not agree to a truce.'
Related read: 'Russia and North Korea Turn Their War Alliance Into a Propaganda Tool,' by WSJ's Dasl Yoon and Jane Lytvynenko
3. PLAN OF A TAX: House Republicans are likely to release the final details of their tax bill tomorrow afternoon ahead of a Tuesday debate and vote by the Ways and Means Committee. But based on the partial text — the so-called 'skinny' version of the bill — released on Friday evening, we're getting a good sense of some of the potential political upsides and downsides.
The political upsides: 'The first public version of Republicans' long-awaited tax bill aims to put more money in Americans' pockets quickly in early 2026,' WSJ's Richard Rubin writes. It would up the standard deduction for individuals (currently $15,000) by $1,000, and for married couples ($30,000) by $2,000. The maximum child tax credit would increase to $2,500 from $2,000.
The timing: 'Those changes would mean that many taxpayers who don't change their withholding would see larger-than-expected refunds in spring 2026,' which is obviously convenient timing ahead of the midterm elections.
The political downside: This plan would 'cost nearly $5 trillion, according to a new estimate from Congress's nonpartisan tax scorekeeper,' as POLITICO's Benjamin Guggenheim reports. That price tag 'far exceeds what is permitted by the budget resolution Republicans adopted earlier this year,' which allows for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, contingent on $2 trillion in accompanying spending offsets.
Seem like important omissions: This version of the tax bill does not include Trump's promise to eliminate taxes on tips … nor the higher 'state and local tax deduction prized by blue state Republicans in swing districts' … nor does it make any 'mention of the expensive business provisions that Republicans want to restore.'
4. 2028 WATCH: Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) headlined a town hall in Pennsylvania's Bucks County yesterday, a move that has prompted speculation that he could be interested in a future presidential bid. But the headlines that emerged from his swing through the swing state were less about his own political future than the present-day challenges of the Democratic Party …
The Fetterman angle: 'Gallego said Republicans are trying to pull John Fetterman to the right and argued Democrats should keep the Pennsylvania senator in their corner as he faces mounting questions over his health and shifting political persona,' POLITICO's Holly Otterbein reports. ''There needs to be space for Fetterman and for other senators in our caucus,' he said in an interview Saturday. 'He still is a senator that fights for working-class people. We may not be 100 percent in agreement a lot of times in a lot of areas, but we don't have to be.''
The party's problems: 'What happened [in] the last election is that we got so pure, and we kept so pure that we started kicking people out of the tent,' Gallego said, per CBS News' Anne Bryson. 'It ends up there aren't enough people in the tent to win elections. … We did this to ourselves.'
As for his own future: 'Gallego said he's focused on his first term as a senator and being a good father as his wife is pregnant with a boy due next month,' WaPo's Sabrina Rodriguez writes. 'But he acknowledged he has not ruled out running for president and has fielded calls from some influential Democrats asking him to consider it. 'Babies get older,' Gallego said.'
5. IN A BOX TO THE LEFT: Some Democrats are desperately pushing to move on from former President Joe Biden after their devastating 2024 election losses, but as the party works to rebrand, Biden's public emergence remains 'an unavoidable subject' for many, POLITICO's Brakkton Booker reports: 'The former president's allies are bracing for the potential release of audio of Biden's interview with Robert Hur … That's in addition to an upcoming book by two high-profile journalists that promises to shed light on Biden's decision to run for reelection … For many Democrats, both events are dredging up past problems — not just around Biden's age, but also inflation and the party's handling of cultural issues.'
Tell me how you really feel: 'It's time for Joe Biden to go away with all due respect and let the next generation of Democrats take the mantle,' says Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha. 'Every time he appears on a show or says something, it's just another week or a month that we have to defend him and remind everybody that we got beat by Donald Trump, again.' Adds Andrew Heaton, a Georgia-based Democratic strategist: 'The last thing we want is anything that's going to feed it to the naysayers who are going to point to see: 'once again, it was a big cover up in the party.'
6. SPEAKING UP: Rümeysa Öztürk made her first public comments yesterday after her release on Friday from federal custody. In a news conference at Boston's Logan airport, the Turkish grad student at Tufts — whose authorship of an op-ed critical of the university's response to the war in Gaza led to the Trump administration detaining her and revoking her visa — struck a hopeful tone, GBH News' Sarah Betancourt reports. 'America is the greatest democracy in the world, and I believe in those values that we share. I have faith in the American system of justice,' said Öztürk.
What's next: 'Even with her release, Öztürk's immigration removal case will continue, as will the habeas case disputing her arrest,' Betancourt writes.
First in Playbook — Elsewhere in the free speech fight: In a letter first shared with Playbook this morning, more than 300 nonprofits are joining together to push back on the attacks on Harvard University's tax-exempt status.
'No president, whether this one or a future one, should have the power to punish private nonprofit organizations because he disagrees with them, the signatories, which include the likes of American Oversight, PEN America and . 'If just one president weaponizes the government and abuses this power, no American's political views will be protected from government retribution from that moment forward. Just as Americans must be free to attend places of worship and to vote, they must also be free to express their views.' Read the full letter
7. AN OPENING FOR DEMS: 'Trump Is Reaching Into Parents' Lives. Can Democrats Capitalize?' by NYT's Katie Glueck: 'The prices of strollers and car seats are skyrocketing as companies race to adjust to President Trump's tariff policies. Federal support for a major campaign to promote safe infant sleep habits appears to have been cut. Measles outbreaks are terrifying parents of young children, even as the nation's health secretary undermines vaccines. The Trump administration's policies are reaching ever deeper into the lives of American families, transforming routine and apolitical parts of some parents' days — trips to the pediatrician, conversations at swim classes, chatter on online baby gear forums — into scenes of anxiety and anger. For a Democratic Party still searching for its strongest message amid the upheavals of the second Trump term, the politics of parenting offer a telling test case: Can Democrats persuade voters that this White House is making their lives harder?'
8. MUSK READ: 'Elon Musk's regulatory troubles have begun to melt away in Trump's second term,' by NBC News' David Ingram: 'In the past few months, Trump's Justice Department has dropped a case against Musk's rocket company, SpaceX, and his Labor Department has canceled a planned civil rights review of his automaker, Tesla. … And in more than 40 other federal agency matters, regulators have taken no public action on their investigations for several months or more — raising questions about whether those cases may have become dormant.'
9. WHAT EMBASSY ROW IS READING: 'To Dominate the Arctic, Trump Needs Ice-Breaking Ships. Finland Wants to Help,' by WSJ's Daniel Michaels: 'Icebreakers are purpose-built, which drives up costs. Only a few are produced worldwide annually, and they can last half a century. … Finland learned to make icebreakers out of necessity because much of its trade with the West is via the Baltic Sea — one of the world's busiest waterways but the only crowded one that routinely ices up.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser is the latest political leader to see their popularity rebound dramatically in the Trump 2.0 era, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) … Resident Commissioner Pablo Hernández Rivera (D-Puerto Rico) … Justin Vail … Karen Skelton … David Castagnetti … Sarah Schmidt … Bethany Little … Angie Alfonso-Royals … José Cunningham … Matt VanHyfte of the House Energy and Commerce GOP … GMMB's Danny Jester … Logan Gibson of Booz Allen Hamilton … Patrick Kane of MPA … Microsoft's Fred Humphries … retired Gen. John Kelly … former Reps. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) and David Young (R-Iowa) … Alex Dease … Michael Pregent … POLITICO's Allison Davis, Haley Siddall and Parker Collins … State Department's Chris Landberg … Alden Schacher … Altana's Daniel Nasaw … Andrew Binns … Alex Wagner … George Hadijski … Cami Connor … Jo Ling Kent … Time's Olivia Waxman … DAGA's Emily Trifone … Austin Stevens of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's office … Bloomberg's Tonya Riley … Brian Walsh of UnitedHealth Group … Julie Trute of Liberty Mutual … Chris Gustafson … Austin Cantrell … Ian Gray … Alex Lange of Trident GMG
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