WA colts footy teams draw three times in a row in 'one-in-a-million' anomaly

Australia Broadcast Center

2 days ago

Two country colts football teams in South West WA have drawn for the third time in a row — a statistical feat a mathematician is calling a one-in-a-million event.
The Dunsborough Sharks were ahead for almost the entire game on Saturday but a fourth quarter surge gave the Augusta Margaret River (AMR) Hawks the lead.
A rushed behind brought the Sharks level in the last minute of play, finishing the game 65 to 65.
The result came after two similar deadlocks, with the clubs unable to be separated in both their encounters last season.
The South West Football League said it believed the string of results was a first in national football history.
He said the two young sides had matched each other goal-for-goal.
"In the first round last year it was 8-4 to 8-4, then in the second round it was 9-5 to 9-5, and then on the weekend it was 10-5 to 10-5," he said.
Dunsborough only joined the competition in 2022, meaning the teams had played each other a total of seven times.
Nearly half of those games have been drawn.
Mathematician Adam Spencer said the chances of two teams drawing three times in a row was one-in-a-million.
"Across the AFL/VFL, consistently about one per cent of games are drawn … so one in a hundred," he said.
"The odds of two draws in a row for the same two teams are one in ten thousand.
He said the odds that two teams would draw three games in a row was one in one million.
Dr Spencer said it was almost impossible to figure out the exact odds of it having occurred elsewhere in Australia given the sheer number of leagues and levels.
But he said, based on the assumption that about 100,000 games were played every year, there was a 95 per cent chance it had never happened before.
Dunsborough Colts coach Steve Dale said it took a while to dawn on him what had happened.
"Initially I suppose I was disappointed that we didn't actually win the game," he said.
"But then of course, we all started looking at the score.
Dale said it was the first draw he had been involved in as either a coach or player.
He took the reigns of the young Dunsborough side earlier this year, making him their third coach since the start of 2024 — a fact not lost on AMR Colts coach Grant Garstone.
"I've seen a different coach every time and yeah I just can't seem to beat them and they can't get me."
Garstone said the teams appeared to be very evenly matched, which he speculated could be tied to the fact that both clubs were keen to give younger players a run.
"We're playing a lot of kids that should still or could still be playing under 17s or year 11s and 12s now and I think Dunsborough, they must be doing the same," he said.
Both agreed Saturday's draw was in many ways the fairest result — Dunsborough having dominated the first half, AMR owning the second.
It was the opposite of their previous match-up when Dunsborough came from behind in the last 10 minutes with four goals in a row.
But with their next face-off coming up in August, the rival coaches have drawn a line in the sand.
"I think there are going to be a lot of people [who] come down and watch it because obviously everyone's hoping for a fourth draw but we want to get a win," Dale said.
"I don't want to do four in a row, that's for sure," Garstone said.
Dr Spencer said it was so statistically unlikely that he would bet his house the two teams would not draw their next game.