US to reevaluate presence in Syria, increase pressure on Iraq: Former US official
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ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Former United States assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs stated on Thursday that the US might acquiesce to Turkey's request to leave Syria and draw Iraq into the 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran, but resume 'conditioned' support to the Kurdistan Region.
During a discussion on US foreign policy and its regional engagement in the Middle East at the Erbil Forum 2025, David Schenker noted that US President Donald Trump's foreign policy is largely defined by 'transactionalism.' This approach may result in 'downgraded US involvement in the Middle East' and a focus on 'deal-making' in the region instead.
Schenker addressed the deployment of some 2,500 US troops in Iraq and another 850 in Syria, stating that Trump views these forces as part of 'forever wars,' which he vowed to end during his electoral campaign.
Describing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the 'Trump whisperer,' Schenker noted that Erdogan had phoned Trump to convince him that 'Turkey can play the US role in Syria,' urging Washington 'to pull out.' He explained that Turkey sees 'Syria as a sphere of influence' and is willing to 'take up the US's role' in the country, including in routing out remnants of the Islamic State (ISIS).
Schenker also referenced Trumps' stance, stating that 'he's not interested in being involved in Syria' and views such a move as a mistake. However, he suggested that shaping Syria's future might be a task Trump 'is delegating it to the Europeans.'
On Iraq, Schenker stated that the US might expand its 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran to include Iraq to compel Baghdad to stop 'smuggling dollars to the regime in Tehran' and cease 'providing a safe haven to Iranian proxies like the Popular Mobilization Forces [PMF].' The PMF was formed amid the ISIS blitz in 2014, as an umbrella organization comprising some 70 predominantly Shiite armed groups in Iraq.
Trump restored the maximum pressure policy against Iran in early February, arguing that Tehran is 'too close' to obtaining nuclear weapons, but expressed interest in negotiating a deal with Iran. For its part, Tehran has repeatedly denied any intentions of developing nuclear weapons.
'Iraq has to balance its relationships between the United States and Iran,' the former US official noted, adding that Baghdad 'pays the salaries of 338,000 [PMF] members,' including 'several US-designated terrorist organizations.'
Anticipating that the financial support to the Kurdish Peshmerga 'will likely continue,' Schenker added that it might be 'conditioned' on the unification of the Peshmerga forces.
Despite multiple rounds of military aid from the US and efforts by Washington and European countries, the Peshmerga forces remain divided between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
The former US official explained that in the event of downsizing US troops in Iraq, a 'residual [US military] force' might remain in the Kurdistan Region.
The three-day Erbil Forum 2025, organized by Rudaw Research Center, is taking place at the Rotana Hotel in the Kurdistan Region's capital. The event features speeches, interviews, and panel discussions focusing on key regional and global political issues.
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