Urbanization is not a threat to food security
In recent years, the narrative that urbanization is by nature bad for agriculture and food security has gone so far in policy and media circles. There have been numerous op-eds raising the alarm, warning that cities are 'gobbling up' farm land and placing the nation at risk of not being able to feed itself.
Some writers warned that 'uncontrolled expansion of cities is shrinking arable land,' while others referred to urban sprawl as 'a silent threat to food security'.These assertions, although well-intentioned, often lack empirical grounding and conflate urban growth with land degradation in a linear, unnuanced manner.
But the latest Urban Atlas of Punjab (2025), published by The Urban Unit, tells a different and more evidence-basedstory based on satellite-based land usedata. From 1995 to 2023, Punjab's built-up area has increased from 1 percent to 4 percent of total area of the province, a quadrupling of urban and peri-urban growth.
Whereas this confirms the reality of urban growth, the more surprising finding is that agricultural land increased slightly, from 54 percent to 55 percent of the province's entire land area in the same period.
These findings are against the prevailing perception that urbanization automatically pushes agriculture out or directly threatens food security. These results actually point to the opposite conclusion that urbanization and agricultural sustainability are not at all mutually exclusive.
Instead, they can coexist quite harmoniouslywith some better strategic planning.Thus, the hypothesis that urbanization is eating up the agricultural land is not supported by the latest available satellite imagery data.
Whereas the agricultural footprint is constantand even marginally on the rise because the data indicate a dramatic reduction in cover of grasslands and shrublands, from 20 percent in 1995 to 16 percent in 2023.
This decline does not immediately threaten food security but sends alarm signals from an ecological and environmental point of view. Grasslands and shrublands are critical in protecting biodiversity, supporting local ecosystems, and carbon sequestration.
Also noteworthy is stability in tree cover (one percent) and water bodies (one percent) during this period. As much as uniformity in these indicators may appear good on the surface, it also suggests an ecologically static pattern of improvement, particularly for tree cover, which remains critically low on global standards.
Battling food insecurity in Pakistan
Maintaining this status quo in the context of growing urban heat and environmental pressures is not in the long term.
Nonetheless, it is important to contextualize this one percent increase in agricultural land cover with caution. While it may appear reassuring, it should not be interpreted in isolation or assumed to be sufficient or insufficient to meet the demands of a population growing at an annual rate of 2 percent to 3 percent.
Land cover expansion alone does not equate to proportional increases in food supply. The sustainability of food security is more greatly influenced by the agricultural productivity of land instead of land area.
According to World Bank, Pakistan's agricultural value added per worker, though low both globally and regionally, increased for US$ 2416 in 1995 to US$ 3076 in 2023. It shows an improvement of 27 percent in per worker productivity but it doesn't depict the net improvement as the agriculture share in total employment also decreased by 6 percent in the same duration.
Somehow, the one percent increase in farmland coupled with per worker value added data till now the urbanization didn't compromise the area under cultivation and per worker yield in Punjab.
Even with a decline in the share of agricultural land, agricultural technology innovation, rising input efficiency, and sustainable agriculture can significantly contribute to per capita food availability. The policy focus, therefore, must also be on enhancing agricultural productivity and resilience as well as safeguarding the quantity and quality of arable land.
Thus, he above-discussed evidence leads to a key conclusion: urbanization in Punjab, as measured by remote sensing, has not compromised agricultural land or directly endangered food security.
This conclusion, however, does not translate to an endorsement of unchecked urban growth. On the contrary, the evidence calls for the need to differentiate between urbanization and unplanned urbanization.
Haphazard expansion—manifested in informal housing societies, encroachments, and poorly regulated industrial zones—can still wreak havoc on both agricultural land and environmental health. But urbanization itself is not inherently problematic.
Managed correctly, it can stimulate economic growth, improve access to markets for farmers, and create new forms of agricultural productivity, such as peri-urban and vertical farming.
To mitigate the negative externalities of urban growth while preserving environmental and food security objectives, the following policy recommendations are warranted:
Firstly, reject the binary view of urbanization versus agriculture. The coexistence of growing built-up and agricultural areas in Punjab over three decades is evidence that integrated land-use planning is possible.
Secondly, Second, encourage planned urban development by densification, not sprawl. Vertical and rooftop agriculture can be promoted to provide local foods and reduce urban carbon footprints.
Thirdly, increase urban tree cover, especially through replicable models like the Miyawaki (urban mini-forest) methodology, which delivers high-density greening of small urban spaces. Better tree cover can combat urban heat islands, improve air quality, and stabilize microclimates.
Fourthly, establish buffer zones to spatially separate industrial, residential, and agricultural land.This zoning approach will reduce land-use conflict, protect peri-urban farmlands, and contain environmental spillovers from industrial activity.
And, lastly, invest in ecological restoration, particularly in degraded shrub and grassland areas, through afforestation, soil regeneration, and habitat conservation efforts.
Punjab Urban Atlas 2025 is a harsh reminder that policy must be driven by evidence and not by outdated suppositions or widespread fears. The increase in agricultural land over urban expansion is a counter-narrative to the constant refrain that food security is threatened by urbanization. Instead, it is the nature of urban expansion that presents the challenge—whether it is planned, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable.
Urbanization is not the enemy. Poorly governed urbanization is. As Pakistan's cities continue to expand, now is the time to align spatial planning with sustainable development goals, balancing economic vitality, environmental guardianship, and agricultural resilience.
The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
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