Dubai's ultra-luxury real estate market set for more growth in 2025
Dubai, UAE: Dubai's ultra-luxury real estate sector is set to continue its robust growth trajectory in 2025, fuelled by strong demand, limited supply, and a steady influx of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), a new market study says.
Over the last ten years, sales of luxury Dubai villas and apartments valued above AED15 million have risen dramatically, reaching AED 71 billion in 2024 for the second year in a row, an increase of almost 688% since 2015.
However, while just over 326,000 are properties currently under construction in Dubai, a fäm Properties report today reveals a clear picture of the limited number of luxury or ultra-luxury properties that will enter the market over the next two to three years.
It says a scarcity of ready properties in particular, amid keen buyer and investor interest, will support continued price growth in 2025. The latest data from DXBinteract, shows that only 16,500 units being built are in the luxury or ultra-luxury sectors as follows:
AED 5-10 million: 10,209 units
AED 10-15 million: 2,360 units
AED 15-30 million: 2,831 units
AED 30-60 million: 809 units
AED 60+ million: 330 units
In addition, the vast majority of these are a long way from completion, with 72% in the 0-20% range in terms of construction progress.
'These figures underscore a restricted supply of ultra-luxury properties, indicating a highly exclusive and limited market, with demand expected to stay strong for at least the next two to three years,' said Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties.
'Beyond that, the balance of supply and demand will depend on how new projects are received. But if the forecasted inflow of around 6,500 HNWIs per year holds true through 2024-2026, we're likely to experience steady demand, supporting price appreciation.'
For 2025, fäm Lux, the luxury division of fäm Properties, has a target of AED 10 billion in sales transactions. Meanwhile, Nordic by fäm, the group's boutique developer specializing in bespoke villas, expects to achieve AED 1 billion in sales from ready ultra-luxury villas.
As the ultra-luxury market matures, a shortage of villas and growing competition in the apartment market are shaping buyer preferences and developer strategies.
Prime land for ultra-luxury villas in areas like Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Bay Island, and Emirates Hills is extremely limited, resulting in a critically short supply keeping demand consistently high. Demand for ready ultra-luxury apartments also remains significantly higher than supply, driving prices up. Buyers are focused on true branded residences with a genuine luxury element.
Supply and demand for apartments in the resale sector are relatively balanced. Buyers also have options in developments nearing completion. Demand for off-plan branded apartments remains strong, with developers like Sobha, Emaar, and DAMAC giving investors more options.
Absorption rates for newly launched branded residences have shifted as a result of greater supply. Developers are finding it harder to replicate the instant sell-outs of two years ago, when fäm Properties took AED 1 billion worth of bookings for the Bvlgari Lighthouse within 24 hours.
Another new trend sees buyers in the ultra-luxury segment prioritizing boutique, limited-supply developments which retain higher levels of exclusivity and command premium prices.
Meanwhile, in the off-plan market, developers partnering with international brands new to Dubai are attracting global investors and adding unique value to new projects.
'In the wake of all these shifts, the underlying fundamentals remain strong,' says Al Msaddi. 'With careful planning, unique designs, and exclusive offerings, developers and investors alike can thrive in this booming segment.'
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