Penguins' Kyle Dubas should do himself a favor and trade Erik Karlsson this summer

New York Times

20-04-2025

CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP, Pa. — Erik Karlsson is a very likable guy. He's smart, he's funny, he oozes charisma and his personality is almost as powerful as his Hall of Fame credentials. Combine his persona with his unique, daredevil on-ice artistry, and you've got the closest thing the NHL can produce to James Bond.
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Therein lies the problem.
The Penguins need substance far more than they need style. They need stability far more than they need someone who would rather trade chances. They also need to unload some contracts badly if they wish to contend sooner rather than later. It's easy to say that carrying bad contracts isn't a big deal until you're ready to contend, but I assure you that it's never a good thing, and that it will restrict the ascent back into contention.
Trading for Karlsson was a worthy experiment. I complimented Kyle Dubas for the blockbuster trade in August of 2023, thought Karlsson was born to be a Penguin and argued that the trade made sense because the Penguins were ridding themselves of dead money in the process. I was wrong.
On some level, sure, it did make sense. One can very easily understand Dubas' thought process when making the deal. Some good came out of it. In the end, however, it was a failure.
And it's time to move on.
The reasons to trade Karlsson are many:
• He counts $10 million against the salary cap in each of the next two seasons and turns 35 this offseason. That's far too much money for what he brings to the table at this stage of his career.
• His notoriously bad defensive work was far worse than usual this season, as he made frequent mistakes that were amateurish, especially for a player of his extraordinary talent.
• He's been so ineffective on the power play during his time with the Penguins that he was replaced by Matt Grzelcyk … and the top power play was much better with Grzelcyk running the show.
• Karlsson either refuses to be coached or is simply unable to retain information from coaches and execute said instruction in game situations.
• Karlsson is a very friendly, likable fellow, but his laid-back, untroubled attitude — while endearing — simply isn't what the Penguins need. They need urgency, no-nonsense and accountability.
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• The Penguins have many young players who are nearly NHL-ready and will be on the team next season, including Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen. Stud defenseman Harrison Brunicke will be here sooner rather than later. Other promising players are on the way. I can't imagine a galaxy in which Karlsson being around young players is a good thing. No, he's not a bad guy. Far from it. I don't even mean to suggest that. But I would suggest that the way he plays and the way he composes himself, while beneficial for him, isn't what you want young players emulating. At all.
But can it be done?
Multiple league sources have told me in recent months that, if Dubas were to retain a portion of Karlsson's contract — maybe $2.5 million annually — some teams would be intrigued. No one is interested in paying him $10 million per year, but at, say, $7.5 million annually? There is a belief in league circles that at least a couple of teams would be interested. Karlsson's warts are clear for everyone to see, but he still drives offense substantially in five-on-five play, and his talent is so dazzling that perhaps he could be of use to the right team.
That team is not the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The truth is, Kris Letang's performance wasn't any better than Karlsson's this season. If the Penguins are serious about winning, they can't possibly have Karlsson, Letang and Ryan Graves in their top six to begin next season. Those three were all atrocious this season and aren't showing signs of improvement. The combined cost of those three alone comprises almost 25 percent of the Penguins' salary cap. Let that sink in.
Graves can't possibly be tradable. Were Dubas to find a taker for even a portion of his salary, it would topple Jim Rutherford's magically dumping the completely washed-up (and overpaid) Rob Scuderi for Trevor Daley as trades that simply leave you in awe. He still has four years remaining on his deal and, quite simply, he's one of the NHL's worst players.
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I don't believe that Letang is movable either. First, he has a full no-movement clause, one that I'm not sure he'd be willing to budge. Maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. I don't know. But I do know this: Letang turns 38 in a few days, he's had two strokes, he just had a procedure last week to close a hole in his heart, he's already endured career-threatening neck surgery, his marvelous skating ability is beginning to decline, he just endured his worst NHL season and he still has three years (with a $6.1 million annual cap hit) remaining on his deal.
Who would want that package in a trade?
All of which brings us back to Karlsson. Some creativity might be required, but I believe you could deal him. While he also has a full no-movement clause, he isn't firmly entrenched in Pittsburgh the way other veterans such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Letang are. Their legacy is in Pittsburgh. Karlsson's is not. While I think he likes it here well enough, I don't think he would block Dubas from moving him.
When assessing the Penguins' roster next season and beyond, their situation at forward is still very good. Crosby is still a superstar. He's surrounded by legitimate talent in Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Malkin, Koivunen, McGroarty and Thomas Novak. Goaltending is a problem, but in Sergei Murashov, there is hope, and in Tristan Jarry, there is at least talent, if not stability.
The Penguins' blue line is embarrassing. It's the NHL's worst unit.
Crosby said something Friday that I don't recall ever hearing him say before. When he was asked about improvements that are required for the Penguins, he spoke at length about the Penguins needing to become 'more stingy defensively.'
When you think of becoming 'more stingy defensively,' do you think of Karlsson?
Me neither.
The captain is correct. If the Penguins want to become a Stanley Cup team again, they will require an infusion of young talent, they will need to make intelligent decisions on July 1 and they'll need to be patient. That's the way it works.
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But before you become a contender again, you first must become a playoff team again. It's been three years. The biggest problem for the Penguins during the past three seasons, and especially this most recent one, is that they're the worst defensive team in hockey.
Don't think for a second that Karlsson doesn't play a significant role. For the money he makes, you could acquire two legitimately good defensemen who actually play defense. And that doesn't mean they will treat the puck like a hand grenade.
The Karlsson experiment sounded good. It was promising. It had its entertaining moments.
But the truth is, it has made the Penguins a lesser hockey team.
Karlsson is refreshing to speak with because of his candidness and honesty. But there's nothing honest about the way he plays hockey, and that's what the Penguins need more than anything.
They need stability. They need substance. They need to get younger. They need to acquire players who don't hog as much salary.
Karlsson won't be around when this team is ready to contend for a championship. The longer he stays around, his presence will hurt that process.
It's time.