Russia expected to lose 10% of its coal exports
Russia's coal industry, which has plunged into a deep crisis after the European Union imposed an embargo on coal supplies and the decline in global prices, is not expected to recover within the next five years.
Source: The Moscow Times, an independent Amsterdam-based news outlet, citing an industry outlook by Neft Research, an analytics and consultancy group specialising in global fuel markets
Details: By 2030, Russia's seaborne coal exports, which account for over 80% of total coal exports, are projected to fall by 10% compared to 2024 levels, amounting to 150 million tonnes.
In 2024, seaborne exports had declined by 7.5% year-on-year, while total exports dropped by 9%.
Analysts attribute the drop in exports to falling global coal prices.
These prices are expected to decrease by 5-20% compared to last year's level by 2030, due to slower demand growth in Asia.
As a result, shipments through Far Eastern ports are expected to grow by 27% by 2030, reaching 118.7 million tonnes, while exports in the western direction will fall by 40%. Ports in the Baltic Sea and Murmansk Oblast will be operating at less than 35% capacity. Shipments via Baltic and Arctic ports will drop fourfold, to 11 million and 2.9 million tonnes per year respectively.
Exports through southern ports will remain stable at 17.8 million tonnes, due to proximity to markets in India and Türkiye.
Only exporters of coking coal are expected to maintain profitability. Sales of thermal coal and anthracite, which is in demand on the Chinese market, will remain unprofitable. This situation may cause coal mining companies that produce massive grades of coal underground to leave the market, Neft Research concluded.
Background:
Western sanctions and difficulties with exports to Asia have triggered a major crisis in Russia's coal industry.
In April 2025, China's imports of Russian coal dropped by 13% year-on-year, to 7.4 million tonnes.
Global prices for thermal coal have fallen to their lowest level since 2020.
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