Analysis: New Quebec Liberal leader Pablo Rodriguez has his work cut out for him

Montreal Gazette

6 hours ago

Quebec Politics
By
QUEBEC — Now comes the hard part.
In winning the Quebec Liberal leadership Saturday in the second round of voting, with 52.3 per cent of the vote versus runner-up Charles Milliard's 47.7 per cent, Pablo Rodriguez takes on the stewardship of Quebec's oldest political party, which was founded in 1867 and has governed Quebec for much of its contemporary history.
Today that party is at a crossroads — a victim of Quebec's multi-party system, which has muddled the voting patterns from the days when the Liberals thrived by selling themselves as a mixture of economic stability and a bulwark against referendums on independence.
After losing the 2018 general election to the Coalition Avenir Québec — which promised a third option beyond federalism and sovereignty, based on economic growth and nationalism — the Liberals did worse in 2022, earning less than 15 per cent of the vote and a mere 21 seats.
Without the support of non-francophone minority voters in the Montreal region, which helped the party earn more seats, the Liberals today would not have the title of the official opposition in the National Assembly.
Enter Rodriguez, a former federal cabinet minister from the Justin Trudeau years.
In electing Rodriguez as leader Saturday over the other candidates in the race, the Liberals decided he is the one to end their long walk in the political hinterland. They believed his promise of a return to power.
Throughout the long leadership race, he reminded them that he was the only one of the five candidates with extensive political experience, as a former transport and Canadian heritage minister and political organizer. He was also Trudeau's Quebec lieutenant from 2019 to 2024.
And Rodriguez didn't hesitate to mention he was better known than the other candidates, highlighting a Léger poll from May showing the Liberals under his leadership would come out ahead of the soaring Parti Québécois and drooping CAQ.
'Becoming leader of the Quebec Liberals is an incredible honour,' Rodriguez, 57, said in his victory speech Saturday. 'It's the honour of a lifetime.
'One race has ended today and another (the 2026 election) starts right away. Are you ready?'
But what lies ahead for Rodriguez in the short and long term?
For one thing, he has to quickly get a better grasp of how the Quebec government works. Far off in Ottawa, federal politicians rarely have to address the details of how health and education services are delivered to the people, sticking to big-picture policies.
Rodriguez will be facing seasoned politicians like Premier François Legault, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal, all of whom have a much firmer grasp on these issues and are ready to skewer the newbie when he trips up.
His federal Liberal roots will make him an easy target, and they won't hesitate to portray his arrival as a federal takeover of the Quebec Liberal 'branch plant.'
'I'm my own man and will be judged on my own decisions, my team, my program,' Rodriguez responded Saturday to reporters.
There is also the matter of a seat in the Quebec legislature. Rodriguez does not have one.
That will limit his media visibility and ability to impose his leadership on the 19-member Liberal caucus. Participating in the cut and thrust of daily question period — something he can't do without a seat — is good practice for those televised election campaign debates he will face in the 2026 election.
There were rumours flying at the Liberal convention Saturday that Rodriguez would ask St-Laurent MNA Marwah Rizqy, who has announced she will not run in 2026, to leave earlier and free up a riding.
But Rodriguez does not appear to be in a hurry to get into the legislature. The advantage of staying away for now is he will have time to rebuild the party in the regions, which is key to shoring up support with francophone voters.
In the last two elections, francophone voters turned to the CAQ. They decide who gets elected in Quebec because they dominate the vote in most of the 125 ridings. In the May Léger poll, the Liberals were polling at 10 per cent in this voting group.
'The Liberals need to reconnect with francophone voters,' Université Laval political science professor Éric Montigny said in an interview. 'That implies (the party) renewing itself with a certain nationalism without alienating its current base.
'It also needs to beef up its economic credo and propose audacious ideas. In a multi-party system, it can no longer count on the fear of the PQ to get itself elected.'
The Liberals undertook just such a reboot after the 2022 election, led by former senator André Pratte and Bourassa-Sauvé MNA Madwa-Nika Cadet. The party approved a new program that, among other things, called for the drafting of a Quebec constitution to defend Quebec's interests in the federation.
Seen as an effort to shore up nationalist votes, none of the candidates in the leadership race aside from Mario Roy said a Quebec constitution would be a priority for them.
The challenge is great, the landscape ever shifting. In recent weeks, Legault himself has been adjusting his message to counter the surging PQ, which, for the moment, represents a greater threat to him than the Liberals.
Aligning himself with Prime Minister Mark Carney, Legault has been saying only a CAQ government can protect the Quebec economy from U.S. tariffs, and that means working closely with the federal government — something the PQ is not interested in doing.
Stopping short of calling himself a federalist, Legault said the PQ's plan to hold another referendum on sovereignty could not come at a worse time.
'Imagine if Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was in my place tomorrow morning,' Legault told Radio-Canada as the legislature recessed for the summer on June 6. 'He only wants to demonstrate that Canada does not work.'
Rodriguez will have to find a way to counter Legault's scheme, which taps into the Liberals' federalist bread and butter.
Some veteran Liberals remain optimistic about the party's brand despite its poor performance in recent years. A key argument rests on the party's ability to create a bigger tent than the CAQ or PQ can, they say.
'Quebecers are thirsty for leadership — a leadership that is not one of turning inwards,' former premier Jean Charest told Liberals in a speech Saturday. 'Quebecers want us to reconnect with all of Quebec, whether you live in Montreal or the regions, whether you speak English or French.
'More than ever, what we need is to be together.'
'There's a change in the political dynamic that leaves room for the Liberal party,' former premier Philippe Couillard said Saturday in an interview at the leadership convention. 'There have been highs and lows (for the party historically). We have always come through them.'