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35 minutes ago
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European Banks Face Hit to Profits in S&P Trade War Stress Test
(Bloomberg) -- European banks would see their profits eroded if an escalation of trade tensions with the US leads to souring corporate loans, according to S&P Global Ratings. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice US State Budget Wounds Intensify From Trump, DOGE Policy Shifts Taxi Wars Put Johannesburg Commuters in Peril as Rail Flounders Credit Agricole and BPCE of France, Frankfurt-based Commerzbank, Dutch lender Rabobank and Denmark's DLR Kredit stand to be hit hardest, according to calculations by the credit ratings company. S&P said none of the 91 banks it examined were projected to face an annual loss in its stress test. The uncertainty over how the US will implement tariffs on trading partners has investors asking how big the hit will be for Europe. Yet the region's lenders, often seen as a proxy for the broader economy, face the latest shock with comparatively low levels of bad loans and profits that have been bolstered by higher interest rates. Bloomberg reported last month that a biennial regulatory stress test run by the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority is on track to deliver a lesser hit to banks' capital ratios than the previous one. S&P's test included three hypothetical scenarios for how an escalation of trade tensions could play out. In the most severe, the median hit to banks' profit stood at 29%, the ratings company said in a report to be published on Tuesday. S&P said the five banks stood out because they had a combination of more exposure to sectors for which it applied higher loss rates, larger loan books compared to total assets, lower expected profitability and higher economic risk in the countries where they operate. 'We believe our stress test findings support our assessment that European banks have improved their resilience to credit risks substantially,' S&P analysts including Nicolas Charnay in Paris, wrote. 'They also underpin our expectation that upcoming regulatory stress tests conducted by authorities will likely reach similar conclusions.' The EBA and ECB are scheduled to publish results of their own examination at the beginning of August. Watchdogs draw on the results to determine how much capital banks should hold as a safety cushion, which in turn influences the amount of money they have available for investor payouts. Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Can 'MAMUWT' Be to Musk What 'TACO' Is to Trump? What Mike Tyson and the Bond Market Can Teach Trump on Debt ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio


Bloomberg
39 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
NATO Cash Bonanza Risks Becoming Europe's Lost Chance for Growth
Europe's plans to unleash trillions of euros in new defense spending will be a huge missed opportunity unless the region can work out how to raise productivity in the process. Any economic benefits beyond bolstering its own military capacity are likely to be lost if countries don't change the way they invest in their armed forces, and develop and produce weapons. That's what calculations by Bloomberg Economics suggest, pointing to only a fleeting growth impact that peters out within three years.


Bloomberg
41 minutes ago
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Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters on Taking Risks
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